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Quebec

Portneuf


MNA: Vincent Caron (CAQ)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
PCQ leaning

Portneuf 34% ± 7%▼ CPQ 29% ± 6%▲ PQ 23% ± 6%▼ CAQ 6% ± 3% QS 5% ± 3% LIB 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 47.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Portneuf 85%▼ CPQ 15%▲ PQ <1%▼ CAQ Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Portneuf

LIB 5% ± 3% PQ 29% ± 6% CAQ 23% ± 6% QS 6% ± 3% CPQ 34% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Portneuf 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 30% CPQ 28% CAQ 26% QS 11% LIB 3% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 32% CAQ 27% PQ 24% QS 11% LIB 3% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 30% CPQ 28% CAQ 26% QS 12% LIB 3% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 31% CPQ 28% CAQ 27% QS 10% LIB 3% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 30% CPQ 27% PQ 27% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 30% CPQ 29% PQ 26% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 29% CAQ 29% PQ 27% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 29% CAQ 28% PQ 28% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 29% PQ 29% CAQ 28% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 31% CPQ 29% CAQ 27% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 32% CPQ 29% CAQ 25% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 30% PQ 30% CAQ 26% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 33% PQ 28% CAQ 25% QS 7% LIB 5% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ 38% PQ 25% CAQ 23% QS 6% LIB 5% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CPQ 37% PQ 25% CAQ 25% QS 6% LIB 5% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CPQ 37% PQ 25% CAQ 25% QS 6% LIB 5% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 CPQ 34% PQ 29% CAQ 23% QS 6% LIB 5% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Portneuf

LIB <1% PQ 15% CAQ <1% CPQ 85% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 59% CPQ 32% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 79% CAQ 17% PQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 55% CPQ 32% CAQ 13% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 57% CPQ 32% CAQ 12% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 54% CPQ 26% PQ 20% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 51% CPQ 39% PQ 10% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 45% CAQ 41% PQ 14% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 40% CAQ 31% PQ 30% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 43% PQ 32% CAQ 25% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 57% CPQ 33% CAQ 11% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 64% CPQ 32% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 49% PQ 42% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 82% PQ 15% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CPQ 98% PQ 1% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CPQ 98% PQ 1% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 CPQ 85% PQ 15% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Portneuf



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 38.0% 54.3% 47.4% 23% ± 6% CPQ 1.3% 5.2% 29.7% 34% ± 7% PQ 14.7% 9.3% 9.8% 29% ± 6% QS 3.9% 11.4% 8.2% 6% ± 3% LIB 41.4% 18.9% 2.8% 5% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%