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Quebec


Portneuf


MNA: Vincent Caron (CAQ)


Latest projection: November 24, 2023

Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP
Portneuf 30% ± 8% 28% ± 7%▼ 27% ± 7%▲ 9% ± 4%▲ 3% ± 2% OTH 3% ± 2%▲ CAQ 2022 47.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Portneuf 54%▲ 25%▼ 21%▲ Odds of winning | November 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Portneuf

PQ 27% ± 7% CAQ 28% ± 7% QS 9% ± 4% QCP 30% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Portneuf 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Portneuf

LIB <1% PQ 21% CAQ 25% QS <1% QCP 54% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Recent electoral history | Portneuf



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 38.0% 54.3% 47.4% 28% ± 7% QCP 1.3% 5.2% 29.7% 30% ± 8% PQ 14.7% 9.3% 9.8% 27% ± 7% QS 3.9% 11.4% 8.2% 9% ± 4% LIB 41.4% 18.9% 2.8% 3% ± 2% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%