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Quebec

Portneuf


MNA: Vincent Caron

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Toss up PQ/CPQ
Portneuf 30% ± 7%▲ CPQ 30% ± 7%▼ PQ 26% ± 6%▲ CAQ 9% ± 4% QS 3% ± 2% LIB 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 47.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Portneuf 49%▲ CPQ 42%▼ PQ 9%▲ CAQ Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Portneuf

PQ 30% ± 7% CAQ 26% ± 6% QS 9% ± 4% CPQ 30% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Portneuf 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 46% CPQ 27% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 46% CPQ 29% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 45% CPQ 30% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 45% CPQ 30% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 45% CPQ 30% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 45% CPQ 30% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 45% CPQ 30% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 45% CPQ 30% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 45% CPQ 30% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 44% CPQ 30% QS 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 46% CPQ 28% QS 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 46% CPQ 28% QS 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 46% CPQ 28% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 45% CPQ 30% QS 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 45% CPQ 30% QS 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 45% CPQ 31% QS 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 46% CPQ 30% QS 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 46% CPQ 30% QS 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 47% CPQ 30% QS 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 45% CPQ 29% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 46% CPQ 29% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 46% CPQ 29% QS 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 46% CPQ 29% QS 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 46% CPQ 29% QS 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 44% CPQ 28% QS 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 45% CPQ 28% QS 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 45% CPQ 28% QS 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 45% CPQ 28% QS 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 45% CPQ 29% QS 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 47% CPQ 28% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 47% CPQ 29% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 45% CPQ 28% QS 10% PQ 10% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 46% CPQ 28% QS 10% PQ 10% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 46% CPQ 28% QS 10% PQ 10% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 46% CPQ 27% QS 10% PQ 10% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 46% CPQ 27% QS 10% PQ 10% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 46% CPQ 27% PQ 10% QS 10% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 47% CPQ 30% PQ 10% QS 8% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 48% CPQ 27% PQ 12% QS 8% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 48% CPQ 27% PQ 12% QS 8% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 49% CPQ 23% PQ 13% QS 9% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 49% CPQ 23% PQ 13% QS 9% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 35% CPQ 31% PQ 20% QS 9% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 33% CPQ 26% PQ 25% QS 11% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 34% CPQ 26% PQ 25% QS 10% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 33% CPQ 26% PQ 25% QS 10% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 31% CPQ 31% PQ 24% QS 9% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 31% CPQ 30% PQ 25% QS 8% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 31% CPQ 30% PQ 25% QS 8% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CPQ 30% CAQ 28% PQ 27% QS 9% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 31% PQ 29% CAQ 25% QS 10% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 30% CPQ 28% CAQ 24% QS 12% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 30% CPQ 28% CAQ 26% QS 11% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 32% CAQ 27% PQ 24% QS 11% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 30% CPQ 28% CAQ 26% QS 12% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 31% CPQ 28% CAQ 27% QS 10% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 30% CPQ 27% PQ 27% QS 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 30% CPQ 29% PQ 26% QS 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 29% CAQ 29% PQ 27% QS 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 29% CAQ 28% PQ 28% QS 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 29% PQ 29% CAQ 28% QS 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 31% CPQ 29% CAQ 27% QS 9% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 32% CPQ 29% CAQ 25% QS 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 30% PQ 30% CAQ 26% QS 9% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Portneuf

LIB <1% PQ 42% CAQ 9% QS <1% CPQ 49% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 97% CPQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 72% CPQ 28% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 87% CPQ 9% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 88% CPQ 8% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 88% CPQ 8% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 51% CPQ 47% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 50% CPQ 46% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 53% CPQ 42% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CPQ 54% CAQ 25% PQ 21% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 55% PQ 37% CAQ 7% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 63% CPQ 34% CAQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 59% CPQ 32% CAQ 9% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 79% CAQ 17% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 55% CPQ 32% CAQ 13% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 57% CPQ 32% CAQ 12% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 54% CPQ 26% PQ 20% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 51% CPQ 39% PQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 45% CAQ 41% PQ 14% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 40% CAQ 31% PQ 30% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 43% PQ 32% CAQ 25% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 57% CPQ 33% CAQ 11% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 64% CPQ 32% CAQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 49% PQ 42% CAQ 9% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Portneuf



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 38.0% 54.3% 47.4% 26% ± 6% CPQ 1.3% 5.2% 29.7% 30% ± 7% PQ 14.7% 9.3% 9.8% 30% ± 7% QS 3.9% 11.4% 8.2% 9% ± 4% LIB 41.4% 18.9% 2.8% 3% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.