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Quebec

Portneuf


MNA: Vincent Caron (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
PCQ leaning gain
Portneuf 33% ± 8%▲ CPQ 28% ± 6%▼ PQ 25% ± 6%▼ CAQ 7% ± 3%▼ QS 5% ± 2%▲ LIB 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 47.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Portneuf 82%▲ CPQ 15%▼ PQ 3%▼ CAQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Portneuf

LIB 5% ± 2% PQ 28% ± 6% CAQ 25% ± 6% QS 7% ± 3% CPQ 33% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Portneuf 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 47% CPQ 30% PQ 10% QS 8% LIB 3% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 48% CPQ 27% PQ 12% QS 8% LIB 3% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 48% CPQ 27% PQ 12% QS 8% LIB 3% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 49% CPQ 23% PQ 13% QS 9% LIB 3% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 49% CPQ 23% PQ 13% QS 9% LIB 3% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 35% CPQ 31% PQ 20% QS 9% LIB 3% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 33% CPQ 26% PQ 25% QS 11% LIB 2% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 34% CPQ 26% PQ 25% QS 10% LIB 2% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 33% CPQ 26% PQ 25% QS 10% LIB 2% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 31% CPQ 31% PQ 24% QS 9% LIB 2% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 31% CPQ 30% PQ 25% QS 8% LIB 2% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 31% CPQ 30% PQ 25% QS 8% LIB 2% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CPQ 30% CAQ 28% PQ 27% QS 9% LIB 3% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 31% PQ 29% CAQ 25% QS 10% LIB 3% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 30% CPQ 28% CAQ 24% QS 12% LIB 3% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 30% CPQ 28% CAQ 26% QS 11% LIB 3% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 32% CAQ 27% PQ 24% QS 11% LIB 3% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 30% CPQ 28% CAQ 26% QS 12% LIB 3% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 31% CPQ 28% CAQ 27% QS 10% LIB 3% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 30% CPQ 27% PQ 27% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 30% CPQ 29% PQ 26% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 29% CAQ 29% PQ 27% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 29% CAQ 28% PQ 28% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 29% PQ 29% CAQ 28% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 31% CPQ 29% CAQ 27% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 32% CPQ 29% CAQ 25% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 30% PQ 30% CAQ 26% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 33% PQ 28% CAQ 25% QS 7% LIB 5% 2025-02-06 Anglade resigns Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Portneuf

LIB <1% PQ 15% CAQ 3% CPQ 82% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 72% CPQ 28% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 87% CPQ 9% PQ 4% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 88% CPQ 8% PQ 4% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 88% CPQ 8% PQ 4% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 51% CPQ 47% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 50% CPQ 46% PQ 4% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 53% CPQ 42% PQ 4% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CPQ 54% CAQ 25% PQ 21% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 55% PQ 37% CAQ 7% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 63% CPQ 34% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 59% CPQ 32% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 79% CAQ 17% PQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 55% CPQ 32% CAQ 13% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 57% CPQ 32% CAQ 12% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 54% CPQ 26% PQ 20% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 51% CPQ 39% PQ 10% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 45% CAQ 41% PQ 14% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 40% CAQ 31% PQ 30% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 43% PQ 32% CAQ 25% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 57% CPQ 33% CAQ 11% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 64% CPQ 32% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 49% PQ 42% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 82% PQ 15% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 Anglade resigns Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Portneuf



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 38.0% 54.3% 47.4% 25% ± 6% CPQ 1.3% 5.2% 29.7% 33% ± 8% PQ 14.7% 9.3% 9.8% 28% ± 6% QS 3.9% 11.4% 8.2% 7% ± 3% LIB 41.4% 18.9% 2.8% 5% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%