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Quebec

Abitibi-Est


MNA: Pierre Dufour (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Leaning PQ

Recent electoral history | Abitibi-Est


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PQ 31% ± 8% 30.6% 19.6% 12.4% LIB 26% ± 7% 41.1% 18.9% 14.7% CAQ 21% ± 6% 19.0% 42.2% 47.2% CPQ 12% ± 5% 1.0% 0.0% 12.0% QS 9% ± 4% 7.1% 15.8% 13.7%




338Canada projection for Abitibi-Est


Abitibi-Est 31% ± 8%▼ PQ 26% ± 7%▲ LIB 21% ± 6% CAQ 12% ± 5% CPQ 9% ± 4% QS CAQ 2022 47.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Abitibi-Est 78%▼ PQ 21%▲ LIB 1% CAQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Abitibi-Est

LIB 26% ± 7% PQ 31% ± 8% CAQ 21% ± 6% QS 9% ± 4% CPQ 12% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Abitibi-Est 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 30% PQ 29% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 31% PQ 27% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 10% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 30% CAQ 29% LIB 16% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 31% CAQ 30% LIB 17% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 30% CAQ 29% LIB 18% QS 11% CPQ 11% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 30% CAQ 30% LIB 18% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 31% CAQ 29% LIB 18% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 30% CAQ 29% LIB 17% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 31% CAQ 28% LIB 17% QS 11% CPQ 11% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 34% CAQ 26% LIB 18% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 35% CAQ 25% LIB 18% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 34% CAQ 27% LIB 18% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 33% CAQ 26% LIB 20% CPQ 10% QS 10% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 32% CAQ 25% LIB 20% CPQ 12% QS 9% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 32% CAQ 27% LIB 20% CPQ 11% QS 9% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 32% CAQ 27% LIB 18% CPQ 12% QS 9% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 35% CAQ 24% LIB 19% CPQ 11% QS 9% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 32% LIB 25% CAQ 21% CPQ 12% QS 9% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 31% LIB 26% CAQ 21% CPQ 12% QS 9% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Abitibi-Est

LIB 21% PQ 78% CAQ 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 59% PQ 41% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 78% PQ 22% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 54% CAQ 46% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 59% CAQ 41% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 58% CAQ 42% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 55% CAQ 44% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 66% CAQ 34% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 59% CAQ 41% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 73% CAQ 27% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 93% CAQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 97% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 89% CAQ 10% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 87% CAQ 13% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 91% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 80% CAQ 19% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 80% CAQ 19% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 91% LIB 8% CAQ 1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 78% LIB 21% CAQ 1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader