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Quebec

Abitibi-Est


MNA: Pierre Dufour

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Likely PQ gain
Abitibi-Est 34% ± 8%▲ PQ 26% ± 7%▼ CAQ 18% ± 6%▲ LIB 11% ± 5% QS 10% ± 5%▼ CPQ CAQ 2022 47.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Abitibi-Est 93%▲ PQ 7%▼ CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Abitibi-Est

LIB 18% ± 6% PQ 34% ± 8% CAQ 26% ± 7% QS 11% ± 5% CPQ 10% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Abitibi-Est 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 52% QS 14% CPQ 13% PQ 11% LIB 9% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 52% QS 14% CPQ 14% PQ 10% LIB 8% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 50% CPQ 17% QS 14% PQ 9% LIB 8% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 50% CPQ 17% QS 14% PQ 9% LIB 8% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 50% CPQ 17% QS 14% PQ 9% LIB 8% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 50% CPQ 17% QS 14% PQ 9% LIB 8% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 49% CPQ 17% QS 14% PQ 9% LIB 8% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 49% CPQ 17% QS 14% PQ 9% LIB 8% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 49% CPQ 17% QS 14% PQ 9% LIB 8% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 49% CPQ 17% QS 13% PQ 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 49% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% QS 14% PQ 10% LIB 9% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% QS 13% PQ 11% LIB 9% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 49% CPQ 18% QS 12% PQ 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 49% CPQ 18% QS 12% PQ 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 49% CPQ 18% QS 12% PQ 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 52% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 11% LIB 9% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 52% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 10% LIB 9% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 52% CPQ 14% QS 12% PQ 10% LIB 9% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 50% QS 14% CPQ 13% PQ 11% LIB 9% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 51% QS 14% CPQ 13% PQ 11% LIB 9% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 51% QS 14% CPQ 13% PQ 11% LIB 9% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 51% QS 14% CPQ 13% PQ 10% LIB 9% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 51% QS 14% CPQ 13% PQ 10% LIB 9% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 49% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 13% LIB 8% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 48% QS 14% PQ 14% CPQ 14% LIB 7% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 48% QS 14% PQ 14% CPQ 14% LIB 8% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 49% QS 14% PQ 14% CPQ 13% LIB 8% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 49% QS 14% CPQ 14% PQ 13% LIB 8% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 52% CPQ 14% QS 14% PQ 13% LIB 8% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 52% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 13% LIB 8% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 49% PQ 15% QS 14% CPQ 14% LIB 8% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 50% PQ 15% QS 14% CPQ 14% LIB 8% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 50% PQ 15% QS 14% CPQ 13% LIB 8% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 50% PQ 15% QS 14% CPQ 13% LIB 8% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 50% PQ 15% QS 14% CPQ 13% LIB 8% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 50% PQ 16% QS 13% CPQ 13% LIB 8% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 47% LIB 15% QS 14% PQ 12% CPQ 12% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 47% LIB 15% PQ 14% QS 13% CPQ 11% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 47% LIB 15% PQ 14% QS 13% CPQ 11% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 46% QS 16% PQ 15% LIB 14% CPQ 9% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 46% QS 16% PQ 15% LIB 14% CPQ 9% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 40% PQ 23% QS 15% LIB 15% CPQ 8% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 41% PQ 24% QS 15% LIB 13% CPQ 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 41% PQ 24% QS 15% LIB 13% CPQ 7% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 44% PQ 21% QS 14% LIB 11% CPQ 8% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 40% PQ 19% QS 15% LIB 13% CPQ 11% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 40% PQ 20% QS 15% LIB 13% CPQ 11% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 36% PQ 25% LIB 14% QS 14% CPQ 10% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 33% PQ 26% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 9% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 32% PQ 28% QS 15% LIB 15% CPQ 9% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 29% PQ 28% LIB 16% QS 16% CPQ 10% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 30% PQ 29% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 31% PQ 27% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 10% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 30% CAQ 29% LIB 16% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 31% CAQ 30% LIB 17% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 30% CAQ 29% LIB 18% QS 11% CPQ 11% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 30% CAQ 30% LIB 18% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 31% CAQ 29% LIB 18% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 30% CAQ 29% LIB 17% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 31% CAQ 28% LIB 17% QS 11% CPQ 11% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 34% CAQ 26% LIB 18% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Abitibi-Est

LIB <1% PQ 93% CAQ 7% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 97% PQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 89% PQ 11% LIB <1% QS <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 75% PQ 25% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 52% PQ 48% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 59% PQ 41% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 78% PQ 22% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 54% CAQ 46% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 59% CAQ 41% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 58% CAQ 42% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 55% CAQ 44% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 66% CAQ 34% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 59% CAQ 41% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 73% CAQ 27% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 93% CAQ 7% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Abitibi-Est



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 19.0% 42.2% 47.2% 26% ± 7% LIB 41.1% 18.9% 14.7% 18% ± 6% QS 7.1% 15.8% 13.7% 11% ± 5% PQ 30.6% 19.6% 12.4% 34% ± 8% CPQ 1.0% 0.0% 12.0% 10% ± 5% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.