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Quebec

Richelieu


MNA: Jean-Bernard Émond (CAQ)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
Safe PQ

Richelieu 48% ± 7% PQ 27% ± 6% CAQ 8% ± 4% CPQ 8% ± 3% LIB 6% ± 3% QS 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 55.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Richelieu >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Richelieu

LIB 8% ± 3% PQ 48% ± 7% CAQ 27% ± 6% QS 6% ± 3% CPQ 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Richelieu 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 48% CAQ 30% QS 9% CPQ 8% LIB 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 51% CAQ 26% QS 9% CPQ 8% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 54% CAQ 24% QS 9% CPQ 7% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 55% CAQ 25% QS 8% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 53% CAQ 24% CPQ 8% QS 7% LIB 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 51% CAQ 27% CPQ 7% QS 7% LIB 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 52% CAQ 26% QS 7% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 47% CAQ 29% QS 9% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 51% CAQ 27% QS 8% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 53% CAQ 25% QS 8% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 54% CAQ 24% QS 8% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 52% CAQ 25% QS 8% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 49% CAQ 27% CPQ 8% LIB 7% QS 7% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 49% CAQ 26% CPQ 9% LIB 8% QS 6% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 48% CAQ 27% CPQ 8% LIB 8% QS 6% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 48% CAQ 27% CPQ 8% LIB 8% QS 6% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 48% CAQ 27% CPQ 8% LIB 8% QS 6% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Richelieu

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Richelieu



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 26.8% 49.8% 55.9% 27% ± 6% PQ 39.0% 23.1% 20.3% 48% ± 7% QS 5.3% 13.4% 10.1% 6% ± 3% CPQ 0.7% 1.2% 8.8% 8% ± 4% LIB 25.6% 11.2% 4.1% 8% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%