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Quebec

Charlesbourg


MNA: Jonatan Julien (CAQ)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
Likely PQ

Charlesbourg 36% ± 6%▲ PQ 25% ± 6%▼ CPQ 20% ± 5%▼ CAQ 8% ± 3% QS 8% ± 3% LIB CAQ 2022 45.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Charlesbourg 99%▲ PQ 1%▼ CPQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Charlesbourg

LIB 8% ± 3% PQ 36% ± 6% CAQ 20% ± 5% QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 25% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Charlesbourg 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 39% CAQ 21% CPQ 18% QS 15% LIB 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 33% CAQ 23% CPQ 21% QS 16% LIB 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 39% CAQ 21% CPQ 16% QS 16% LIB 6% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 40% CAQ 21% CPQ 17% QS 14% LIB 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 33% CAQ 27% CPQ 18% QS 12% LIB 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 32% CAQ 28% CPQ 19% QS 12% LIB 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 33% CAQ 27% CPQ 19% QS 13% LIB 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 35% CAQ 26% CPQ 18% QS 13% LIB 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 35% CAQ 26% CPQ 19% QS 12% LIB 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 37% CAQ 24% CPQ 18% QS 12% LIB 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 38% CAQ 23% CPQ 19% QS 12% LIB 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 37% CAQ 24% CPQ 19% QS 12% LIB 6% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 34% CPQ 25% CAQ 22% QS 9% LIB 8% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 33% CPQ 29% CAQ 21% LIB 8% QS 8% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 32% CPQ 28% CAQ 22% QS 8% LIB 8% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 32% CPQ 28% CAQ 22% QS 8% LIB 8% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 36% CPQ 25% CAQ 20% QS 8% LIB 8% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Charlesbourg

LIB <1% PQ 99% CAQ <1% CPQ 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% CPQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 91% CAQ 9% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 82% CAQ 18% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 89% CAQ 11% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 98% CAQ 2% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 98% CAQ 2% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 97% CPQ 2% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 76% CPQ 24% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 80% CPQ 20% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 80% CPQ 20% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 99% CPQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Charlesbourg



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 33.7% 48.1% 45.0% 20% ± 5% CPQ 1.1% 3.7% 20.4% 25% ± 6% PQ 17.5% 11.7% 14.2% 36% ± 6% QS 4.8% 13.5% 13.0% 8% ± 3% LIB 41.3% 22.4% 6.0% 8% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%