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Quebec

Charlesbourg


MNA: Jonatan Julien

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Likely PQ gain
Charlesbourg 37% ± 7%▲ PQ 24% ± 6%▼ CAQ 18% ± 6%▼ CPQ 12% ± 4% QS 6% ± 3% LIB CAQ 2022 45.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Charlesbourg >99%▲ PQ <1%▼ CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Charlesbourg

LIB 6% ± 3% PQ 37% ± 7% CAQ 24% ± 6% QS 12% ± 4% CPQ 18% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Charlesbourg 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 42% CPQ 28% QS 12% LIB 11% PQ 7% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 42% CPQ 30% QS 12% LIB 9% PQ 5% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 41% CPQ 31% QS 12% LIB 9% PQ 5% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 41% CPQ 31% QS 12% LIB 9% PQ 5% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 41% CPQ 31% QS 12% LIB 9% PQ 5% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 41% CPQ 31% QS 12% LIB 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 41% CPQ 31% QS 12% LIB 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 41% CPQ 31% QS 12% LIB 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 41% CPQ 31% QS 12% LIB 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 40% CPQ 31% QS 11% LIB 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 42% CPQ 30% QS 11% LIB 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 41% CPQ 30% QS 11% LIB 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 41% CPQ 30% QS 11% LIB 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 41% CPQ 32% QS 10% LIB 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 41% CPQ 32% QS 10% LIB 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 40% CPQ 33% QS 9% LIB 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 40% CPQ 33% QS 9% LIB 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 40% CPQ 33% QS 9% LIB 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 41% CPQ 33% QS 9% LIB 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 39% CPQ 32% QS 12% LIB 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 40% CPQ 31% QS 12% LIB 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 40% CPQ 31% QS 12% LIB 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 40% CPQ 31% QS 12% LIB 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 40% CPQ 31% QS 11% LIB 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 38% CPQ 32% QS 11% PQ 9% LIB 8% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 39% CPQ 32% QS 13% PQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 39% CPQ 32% QS 12% PQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 39% CPQ 32% QS 12% PQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 38% CPQ 32% QS 12% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 41% CPQ 31% QS 12% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 41% CPQ 31% QS 12% PQ 8% LIB 7% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 39% CPQ 31% QS 12% PQ 9% LIB 7% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 40% CPQ 31% QS 12% PQ 9% LIB 7% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 40% CPQ 30% QS 12% PQ 9% LIB 7% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 40% CPQ 30% QS 12% PQ 9% LIB 7% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 40% CPQ 30% QS 12% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 40% CPQ 30% QS 12% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 45% CPQ 20% PQ 14% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 45% CPQ 18% PQ 16% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 45% CPQ 18% PQ 16% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 45% PQ 18% CPQ 15% QS 14% LIB 6% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 45% PQ 18% CPQ 15% QS 14% LIB 6% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 30% PQ 30% CPQ 19% QS 14% LIB 6% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ 33% CAQ 31% QS 15% CPQ 14% LIB 5% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ 33% CAQ 31% QS 15% CPQ 14% LIB 5% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 33% CAQ 31% QS 14% CPQ 14% LIB 5% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 30% CAQ 28% CPQ 21% QS 13% LIB 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 33% CAQ 27% CPQ 21% QS 12% LIB 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 31% CAQ 28% CPQ 20% QS 12% LIB 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 36% CAQ 23% CPQ 20% QS 12% LIB 6% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 38% CAQ 21% CPQ 20% QS 13% LIB 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 38% CAQ 20% CPQ 18% QS 16% LIB 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 39% CAQ 21% CPQ 18% QS 15% LIB 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 33% CAQ 23% CPQ 21% QS 16% LIB 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 39% CAQ 21% CPQ 16% QS 16% LIB 6% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 40% CAQ 21% CPQ 17% QS 14% LIB 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 33% CAQ 27% CPQ 18% QS 12% LIB 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 32% CAQ 28% CPQ 19% QS 12% LIB 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 33% CAQ 27% CPQ 19% QS 13% LIB 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 35% CAQ 26% CPQ 18% QS 13% LIB 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 35% CAQ 26% CPQ 19% QS 12% LIB 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 37% CAQ 24% CPQ 18% QS 12% LIB 6% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Charlesbourg

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 97% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 93% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 94% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 93% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 93% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 92% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 92% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 92% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 92% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 96% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 96% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 96% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 90% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 90% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 86% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 86% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 86% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 87% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 88% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 90% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 90% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 91% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 91% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 84% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 85% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 86% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 86% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 82% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 93% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 92% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 89% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 92% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 93% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 95% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 94% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 95% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 54% PQ 46% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ 61% CAQ 39% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ 61% CAQ 39% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 61% CAQ 39% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 67% CAQ 32% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 90% CAQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 74% CAQ 26% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 91% CAQ 9% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 82% CAQ 18% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 89% CAQ 11% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Charlesbourg



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 33.7% 48.1% 45.0% 24% ± 6% CPQ 1.1% 3.7% 20.4% 18% ± 6% PQ 17.5% 11.7% 14.2% 37% ± 7% QS 4.8% 13.5% 13.0% 12% ± 4% LIB 41.3% 22.4% 6.0% 6% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.