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Quebec

Charlesbourg


MNA: Jonatan Julien (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Likely PQ gain
Charlesbourg 34% ± 6%▼ PQ 25% ± 6%▲ CPQ 22% ± 5%▼ CAQ 9% ± 3%▼ QS 8% ± 3%▲ LIB CAQ 2022 45.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Charlesbourg 97%▼ PQ 2%▲ CPQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Charlesbourg

LIB 8% ± 3% PQ 34% ± 6% CAQ 22% ± 5% QS 9% ± 3% CPQ 25% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Charlesbourg 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 45% CPQ 20% PQ 14% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 45% CPQ 18% PQ 16% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 45% CPQ 18% PQ 16% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 45% PQ 18% CPQ 15% QS 14% LIB 6% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 45% PQ 18% CPQ 15% QS 14% LIB 6% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 30% PQ 30% CPQ 19% QS 14% LIB 6% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ 33% CAQ 31% QS 15% CPQ 14% LIB 5% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ 33% CAQ 31% QS 15% CPQ 14% LIB 5% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 33% CAQ 31% QS 14% CPQ 14% LIB 5% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 30% CAQ 28% CPQ 21% QS 13% LIB 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 33% CAQ 27% CPQ 21% QS 12% LIB 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 31% CAQ 28% CPQ 20% QS 12% LIB 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 36% CAQ 23% CPQ 20% QS 12% LIB 6% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 38% CAQ 21% CPQ 20% QS 13% LIB 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 38% CAQ 20% CPQ 18% QS 16% LIB 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 39% CAQ 21% CPQ 18% QS 15% LIB 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 33% CAQ 23% CPQ 21% QS 16% LIB 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 39% CAQ 21% CPQ 16% QS 16% LIB 6% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 40% CAQ 21% CPQ 17% QS 14% LIB 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 33% CAQ 27% CPQ 18% QS 12% LIB 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 32% CAQ 28% CPQ 19% QS 12% LIB 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 33% CAQ 27% CPQ 19% QS 13% LIB 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 35% CAQ 26% CPQ 18% QS 13% LIB 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 35% CAQ 26% CPQ 19% QS 12% LIB 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 37% CAQ 24% CPQ 18% QS 12% LIB 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 38% CAQ 23% CPQ 19% QS 12% LIB 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 37% CAQ 24% CPQ 19% QS 12% LIB 6% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 34% CPQ 25% CAQ 22% QS 9% LIB 8% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Charlesbourg

LIB <1% PQ 97% CAQ <1% CPQ 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 54% PQ 46% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ 61% CAQ 39% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ 61% CAQ 39% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 61% CAQ 39% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 67% CAQ 32% CPQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 90% CAQ 10% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 74% CAQ 26% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% CPQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 91% CAQ 9% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 82% CAQ 18% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 89% CAQ 11% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 98% CAQ 2% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 98% CAQ 2% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 97% CPQ 2% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Charlesbourg



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 33.7% 48.1% 45.0% 22% ± 5% CPQ 1.1% 3.7% 20.4% 25% ± 6% PQ 17.5% 11.7% 14.2% 34% ± 6% QS 4.8% 13.5% 13.0% 9% ± 3% LIB 41.3% 22.4% 6.0% 8% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%