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Quebec

Lotbinière-Frontenac


MNA: Isabelle Lecours (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
PCQ likely gain
Lotbinière-Frontenac 32% ± 7%▲ CPQ 26% ± 6%▼ CAQ 23% ± 5%▼ PQ 11% ± 4%▲ LIB 7% ± 3%▼ QS CAQ 2022 43.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Lotbinière-Frontenac 90%▲ CPQ 8%▼ CAQ 1%▼ PQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Lotbinière-Frontenac

LIB 11% ± 4% PQ 23% ± 5% CAQ 26% ± 6% QS 7% ± 3% CPQ 32% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Lotbinière-Frontenac 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 44% CPQ 32% QS 9% PQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 45% CPQ 30% PQ 10% QS 9% LIB 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 45% CPQ 30% PQ 10% QS 9% LIB 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 45% CPQ 25% PQ 12% QS 11% LIB 6% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 46% CPQ 25% PQ 12% QS 12% LIB 6% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 33% CPQ 32% PQ 18% QS 10% LIB 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 35% CPQ 30% PQ 18% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 36% CPQ 30% PQ 18% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 38% CPQ 30% PQ 16% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 35% CPQ 33% PQ 14% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 35% CPQ 33% PQ 15% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 35% CPQ 32% PQ 16% QS 9% LIB 7% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 33% CPQ 32% PQ 17% QS 10% LIB 8% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 31% CPQ 30% PQ 21% QS 10% LIB 7% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CPQ 32% CAQ 28% PQ 21% QS 10% LIB 8% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CPQ 31% CAQ 29% PQ 21% QS 10% LIB 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 32% CAQ 30% PQ 20% QS 10% LIB 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 31% CAQ 29% PQ 22% QS 10% LIB 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 31% CAQ 29% PQ 22% QS 9% LIB 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 31% CAQ 28% PQ 21% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 30% CAQ 29% PQ 22% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 30% CAQ 29% PQ 22% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 30% CAQ 29% PQ 22% QS 9% LIB 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 30% CAQ 28% PQ 23% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 28% CAQ 27% PQ 26% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 30% PQ 26% CAQ 25% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 30% CAQ 27% PQ 24% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 32% CAQ 26% PQ 23% LIB 11% QS 7% 2025-02-06 Anglade resigns Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Lotbinière-Frontenac

LIB <1% PQ 1% CAQ 8% CPQ 90% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 59% CPQ 41% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 81% CPQ 19% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 83% CPQ 17% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 89% CPQ 11% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 64% CPQ 36% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 64% CPQ 36% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 68% CPQ 32% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 54% CPQ 46% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 58% CPQ 42% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CPQ 76% CAQ 24% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CPQ 64% CAQ 35% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 61% CAQ 39% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 64% CAQ 35% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 64% CAQ 35% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 67% CAQ 32% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 51% CAQ 48% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 58% CAQ 41% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 61% CAQ 38% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 66% CAQ 32% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 54% CAQ 27% PQ 18% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 72% PQ 16% CAQ 11% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 69% CAQ 25% PQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 90% CAQ 8% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 Anglade resigns Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Lotbinière-Frontenac



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 29.8% 53.7% 43.7% 26% ± 6% CPQ 1.1% 3.7% 32.2% 32% ± 7% QS 3.6% 9.5% 9.4% 7% ± 3% PQ 15.6% 9.5% 8.8% 23% ± 5% LIB 49.0% 20.5% 5.9% 11% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%