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Quebec

Lotbinière-Frontenac


MNA: Isabelle Lecours (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
PCQ likely

Recent electoral history | Lotbinière-Frontenac


2014 2018 2022 Proj. CPQ 34% ± 7% 1.1% 3.7% 32.2% PQ 22% ± 5% 15.6% 9.5% 8.8% CAQ 20% ± 5% 29.8% 53.7% 43.7% LIB 16% ± 5% 49.0% 20.5% 5.9% QS 6% ± 3% 3.6% 9.5% 9.4%




338Canada projection for Lotbinière-Frontenac


Lotbinière-Frontenac 34% ± 7%▲ CPQ 22% ± 5%▼ PQ 20% ± 5%▼ CAQ 16% ± 5%▲ LIB 6% ± 3%▼ QS CAQ 2022 43.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Lotbinière-Frontenac 99%▲ CPQ <1%▼ PQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Lotbinière-Frontenac

LIB 16% ± 5% PQ 22% ± 5% CAQ 20% ± 5% QS 6% ± 3% CPQ 34% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Lotbinière-Frontenac 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CPQ 31% CAQ 29% PQ 21% QS 10% LIB 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 32% CAQ 30% PQ 20% QS 10% LIB 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 31% CAQ 29% PQ 22% QS 10% LIB 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 31% CAQ 29% PQ 22% QS 9% LIB 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 31% CAQ 28% PQ 21% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 30% CAQ 29% PQ 22% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 30% CAQ 29% PQ 22% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 30% CAQ 29% PQ 22% QS 9% LIB 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 30% CAQ 28% PQ 23% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 28% CAQ 27% PQ 26% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 30% PQ 26% CAQ 25% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 30% CAQ 27% PQ 24% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 32% CAQ 26% PQ 23% LIB 11% QS 7% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ 33% CAQ 25% PQ 23% LIB 11% QS 6% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CPQ 32% CAQ 27% PQ 22% LIB 11% QS 7% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CPQ 32% CAQ 27% PQ 23% LIB 10% QS 7% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 CPQ 31% PQ 25% CAQ 24% LIB 11% QS 7% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 CPQ 33% PQ 23% CAQ 21% LIB 14% QS 7% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 CPQ 34% PQ 22% CAQ 20% LIB 16% QS 6% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Lotbinière-Frontenac

LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ <1% CPQ 99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CPQ 64% CAQ 35% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 61% CAQ 39% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 64% CAQ 35% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 64% CAQ 35% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 67% CAQ 32% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 51% CAQ 48% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 58% CAQ 41% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 61% CAQ 38% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 66% CAQ 32% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 54% CAQ 27% PQ 18% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 72% PQ 16% CAQ 11% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 69% CAQ 25% PQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 90% CAQ 8% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ 95% CAQ 4% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CPQ 86% CAQ 13% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CPQ 86% CAQ 13% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 CPQ 84% PQ 11% CAQ 5% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 CPQ 98% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 CPQ 99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader