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Quebec

Lotbinière-Frontenac


MNA: Isabelle Lecours

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Toss up CAQ/CPQ
Lotbinière-Frontenac 30% ± 7% CPQ 27% ± 6%▲ CAQ 24% ± 6%▼ PQ 9% ± 3% LIB 8% ± 3% QS CAQ 2022 43.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Lotbinière-Frontenac 69%▼ CPQ 25%▲ CAQ 6%▼ PQ Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Lotbinière-Frontenac

LIB 9% ± 3% PQ 24% ± 6% CAQ 27% ± 6% QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 30% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Lotbinière-Frontenac 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 44% CPQ 30% LIB 10% QS 8% PQ 5% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 44% CPQ 31% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 5% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 41% CPQ 36% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 4% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 41% CPQ 36% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 4% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 41% CPQ 36% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 4% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 41% CPQ 36% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 4% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 40% CPQ 36% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 4% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 40% CPQ 36% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 4% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 40% CPQ 36% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 4% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 40% CPQ 36% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 5% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 40% CPQ 36% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 5% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 40% CPQ 36% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 5% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 40% CPQ 36% LIB 9% QS 7% PQ 5% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 40% CPQ 36% LIB 10% QS 7% PQ 5% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 39% CPQ 36% LIB 10% QS 7% PQ 5% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 39% CPQ 37% LIB 10% QS 7% PQ 5% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 41% CPQ 35% LIB 10% QS 7% PQ 5% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 44% CPQ 32% LIB 10% QS 7% PQ 5% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 44% CPQ 32% LIB 10% QS 7% PQ 5% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 43% CPQ 31% LIB 10% QS 8% PQ 5% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 44% CPQ 31% LIB 10% QS 8% PQ 5% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 44% CPQ 31% LIB 10% QS 8% PQ 5% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 44% CPQ 30% LIB 10% QS 8% PQ 5% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 44% CPQ 31% LIB 10% QS 8% PQ 5% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 42% CPQ 31% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 43% CPQ 31% QS 9% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 43% CPQ 31% QS 9% LIB 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 43% CPQ 30% QS 9% LIB 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 43% CPQ 31% LIB 9% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 45% CPQ 31% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 45% CPQ 31% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 43% CPQ 31% LIB 9% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 44% CPQ 30% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 8% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 44% CPQ 30% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 8% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 45% CPQ 30% LIB 9% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 44% CPQ 30% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 8% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 44% CPQ 29% LIB 9% PQ 9% QS 8% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 44% CPQ 32% QS 9% PQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 45% CPQ 30% PQ 10% QS 9% LIB 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 45% CPQ 30% PQ 10% QS 9% LIB 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 45% CPQ 25% PQ 12% QS 11% LIB 6% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 46% CPQ 25% PQ 12% QS 12% LIB 6% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 33% CPQ 32% PQ 18% QS 10% LIB 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 35% CPQ 30% PQ 18% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 36% CPQ 30% PQ 18% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 38% CPQ 30% PQ 16% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 35% CPQ 33% PQ 14% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 35% CPQ 33% PQ 15% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 35% CPQ 32% PQ 16% QS 9% LIB 7% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 33% CPQ 32% PQ 17% QS 10% LIB 8% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 31% CPQ 30% PQ 21% QS 10% LIB 7% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CPQ 32% CAQ 28% PQ 21% QS 10% LIB 8% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CPQ 31% CAQ 29% PQ 21% QS 10% LIB 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 32% CAQ 30% PQ 20% QS 10% LIB 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 31% CAQ 29% PQ 22% QS 10% LIB 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 31% CAQ 29% PQ 22% QS 9% LIB 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 31% CAQ 28% PQ 21% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 30% CAQ 29% PQ 22% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 30% CAQ 29% PQ 22% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 30% CAQ 29% PQ 22% QS 9% LIB 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 30% CAQ 28% PQ 23% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 28% CAQ 27% PQ 26% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 30% PQ 26% CAQ 25% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 30% CAQ 27% PQ 24% LIB 9% QS 8% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Lotbinière-Frontenac

LIB <1% PQ 6% CAQ 25% QS <1% CPQ 69% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 97% CPQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 74% CPQ 26% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 74% CPQ 26% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 74% CPQ 26% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 74% CPQ 26% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 70% CPQ 30% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 70% CPQ 30% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 70% CPQ 30% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 70% CPQ 30% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 73% CPQ 27% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 73% CPQ 27% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 73% CPQ 27% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 69% CPQ 31% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 69% CPQ 31% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 61% CPQ 39% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 82% CPQ 18% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 96% CPQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 96% CPQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 97% CPQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 97% CPQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 97% CPQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 97% CPQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 94% CPQ 6% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 96% CPQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 96% CPQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 97% CPQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 96% CPQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 97% CPQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 96% CPQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 59% CPQ 41% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 81% CPQ 19% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 83% CPQ 17% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 89% CPQ 11% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 64% CPQ 36% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 64% CPQ 36% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 68% CPQ 32% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 54% CPQ 46% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 58% CPQ 42% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CPQ 76% CAQ 24% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CPQ 64% CAQ 35% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 61% CAQ 39% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 64% CAQ 35% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 64% CAQ 35% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 67% CAQ 32% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 51% CAQ 48% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 58% CAQ 41% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 61% CAQ 38% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 66% CAQ 32% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 54% CAQ 27% PQ 18% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 72% PQ 16% CAQ 11% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 69% CAQ 25% PQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Lotbinière-Frontenac



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 29.8% 53.7% 43.7% 27% ± 6% CPQ 1.1% 3.7% 32.2% 30% ± 7% QS 3.6% 9.5% 9.4% 8% ± 3% PQ 15.6% 9.5% 8.8% 24% ± 6% LIB 49.0% 20.5% 5.9% 9% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.