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Quebec

The 450, 33 districts



Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
15 5 0 1 21 0
3 2 2 3 10 4
0 0 0 2 2 29
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
Projected ahead Last election (2022)
21 0
10 4
2 29
0 0
0 0




Projection | the The 450


Latest update: March 21, 2024
The 450 37% ± 7%▲ 23% ± 5%▼ 18% ± 4% 12% ± 3% 8% ± 3%▼ 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
The 450, 33 districts 21 [20-25] 10 [7-11] 2 [0-3] 0 [0-0] 338Canada seat projection | March 21, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | The 450

LIB 18% ± 4% PQ 37% ± 7% CAQ 23% ± 5% QS 12% ± 3% QCP 8% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | The 450 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP March 21, 2024

Seat projection | The 450

LIB 10 [7-11] PQ 21 [20-25] CAQ 2 [0-3] QCP 0 [0-0] Seat projection | The 450 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QCP March 21, 2024

List of electoral districts


Latest update: March 21, 2024
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
009 Beauharnois Likely PQ gain
013 Blainville Likely PQ gain
015 Borduas Safe PQ gain
019 Chambly Safe PQ gain
024 Châteauguay Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
027 Chomedey Safe LIB hold
031 Deux-Montagnes Safe PQ gain
035 Fabre Likely LIB gain
040 Groulx Likely PQ gain
053 L’Assomption Toss up PQ/CAQ
055 La Pinière Safe LIB hold
056 La Prairie Toss up PQ/CAQ
060 Laporte Leaning LIB gain
062 Laval-des-Rapides Toss up LIB/PQ
064 Les Plaines Safe PQ gain
069 Marie-Victorin Safe PQ gain
072 Masson Safe PQ gain
077 Mille-Îles Likely LIB hold
078 Mirabel Likely PQ gain
080 Montarville Safe PQ gain
092 Repentigny Safe PQ gain
093 Richelieu Safe PQ gain
100 Rousseau Likely PQ gain
105 Saint-Jean Safe PQ gain
109 Sainte-Rose Toss up LIB/PQ
110 Sanguinet Safe PQ gain
112 Soulanges Toss up LIB/PQ
113 Taillon Safe PQ gain
115 Terrebonne Safe PQ gain
118 Vachon Safe PQ gain
120 Vaudreuil Safe LIB hold
121 Verchères Safe PQ gain
124 Vimont Leaning LIB gain
Electoral district
009 Beauharnois
013 Blainville
015 Borduas
019 Chambly
024 Châteauguay
027 Chomedey
031 Deux-Montagnes
035 Fabre
040 Groulx
053 L’Assomption
055 La Pinière
056 La Prairie
060 Laporte
062 Laval-des-Rapides
064 Les Plaines
069 Marie-Victorin
072 Masson
077 Mille-Îles
078 Mirabel
080 Montarville
092 Repentigny
093 Richelieu
100 Rousseau
105 Saint-Jean
109 Sainte-Rose
110 Sanguinet
112 Soulanges
113 Taillon
115 Terrebonne
118 Vachon
120 Vaudreuil
121 Verchères
124 Vimont