The 450, 33 districts
Safe | Likely | Leaning | Toss up | Projected ahead | Last election (2022) | |
15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 0 | |
3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 4 | |
0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 29 | |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Projected ahead | Last election (2022) | |
21 | 0 | |
10 | 4 | |
2 | 29 | |
0 | 0 | |
0 | 0 |
Projection | the The 450
Latest update: March 21, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today.
The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes.
The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean.
Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.
Popular vote projection | The 450
Seat projection | The 450
List of electoral districts
Latest update: March 21, 2024
Electoral district | Current party | Latest projection |
---|---|---|
009 Beauharnois | Likely PQ gain | |
013 Blainville | Likely PQ gain | |
015 Borduas | Safe PQ gain | |
019 Chambly | Safe PQ gain | |
024 Châteauguay | Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | |
027 Chomedey | Safe LIB hold | |
031 Deux-Montagnes | Safe PQ gain | |
035 Fabre | Likely LIB gain | |
040 Groulx | Likely PQ gain | |
053 L’Assomption | Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
055 La Pinière | Safe LIB hold | |
056 La Prairie | Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
060 Laporte | Leaning LIB gain | |
062 Laval-des-Rapides | Toss up LIB/PQ | |
064 Les Plaines | Safe PQ gain | |
069 Marie-Victorin | Safe PQ gain | |
072 Masson | Safe PQ gain | |
077 Mille-Îles | Likely LIB hold | |
078 Mirabel | Likely PQ gain | |
080 Montarville | Safe PQ gain | |
092 Repentigny | Safe PQ gain | |
093 Richelieu | Safe PQ gain | |
100 Rousseau | Likely PQ gain | |
105 Saint-Jean | Safe PQ gain | |
109 Sainte-Rose | Toss up LIB/PQ | |
110 Sanguinet | Safe PQ gain | |
112 Soulanges | Toss up LIB/PQ | |
113 Taillon | Safe PQ gain | |
115 Terrebonne | Safe PQ gain | |
118 Vachon | Safe PQ gain | |
120 Vaudreuil | Safe LIB hold | |
121 Verchères | Safe PQ gain | |
124 Vimont | Leaning LIB gain |