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Quebec

The 450, 33 districts


Latest update: February 6, 2025
The 450 32% ± 6%▼ PQ 25% ± 5%▲ CAQ 23% ± 5%▲ LIB 10% ± 3%▲ CPQ 8% ± 2%▼ QS 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
The 450, 33 districts 18▼ [16-20] PQ 11 [10-11] LIB 4▲ [2-7] CAQ 0 [0-0] CPQ 338Canada seat projection | February 6, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | The 450

LIB 23% ± 5% PQ 32% ± 6% CAQ 25% ± 5% QS 8% ± 2% CPQ 10% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | The 450 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-08-25 CAQ 49% LIB 15% QS 13% PQ 11% CPQ 10% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 49% LIB 15% QS 13% CPQ 11% PQ 10% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 48% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 48% LIB 14% CPQ 13% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 48% LIB 14% CPQ 13% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 48% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 12% PQ 9% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 12% PQ 9% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 12% PQ 11% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 47% CPQ 15% LIB 15% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 47% CPQ 15% LIB 15% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 47% CPQ 15% LIB 14% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 47% CPQ 15% LIB 14% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 46% LIB 14% CPQ 14% QS 12% PQ 11% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 46% LIB 14% CPQ 14% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 46% LIB 14% CPQ 14% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 47% LIB 14% CPQ 14% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 47% LIB 14% CPQ 14% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 45% LIB 14% CPQ 14% PQ 13% QS 12% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 45% PQ 14% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 12% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 45% PQ 14% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 12% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 45% PQ 14% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 12% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 45% CPQ 14% PQ 13% LIB 13% QS 13% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 46% CPQ 14% LIB 13% PQ 13% QS 12% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 46% CPQ 14% LIB 13% PQ 13% QS 12% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 44% PQ 15% CPQ 14% LIB 13% QS 12% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 45% PQ 15% CPQ 14% LIB 13% QS 12% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 45% PQ 15% CPQ 13% LIB 13% QS 12% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 45% PQ 15% LIB 13% CPQ 13% QS 12% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 45% PQ 15% LIB 13% CPQ 13% QS 12% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 45% PQ 15% LIB 13% CPQ 13% QS 12% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 44% LIB 16% PQ 15% QS 14% CPQ 10% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 44% PQ 17% LIB 15% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 44% PQ 17% LIB 15% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 43% PQ 19% LIB 15% QS 15% CPQ 7% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 43% PQ 19% LIB 15% QS 15% CPQ 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 43% PQ 19% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 44% PQ 20% LIB 15% QS 14% CPQ 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 44% PQ 20% LIB 15% QS 14% CPQ 7% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 41% PQ 22% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 7% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 38% PQ 21% LIB 16% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 38% PQ 21% LIB 16% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 36% PQ 22% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 30% PQ 29% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 31% CAQ 28% LIB 17% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 34% CAQ 25% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 32% CAQ 28% LIB 17% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 35% CAQ 24% LIB 18% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 37% CAQ 23% LIB 18% QS 12% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 37% CAQ 24% LIB 19% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 36% CAQ 23% LIB 20% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 35% CAQ 26% LIB 20% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 35% CAQ 25% LIB 19% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 31% CAQ 27% LIB 19% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 33% CAQ 25% LIB 19% QS 10% CPQ 10% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 36% CAQ 24% LIB 19% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 36% CAQ 23% LIB 20% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 35% CAQ 24% LIB 20% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 32% CAQ 25% LIB 23% CPQ 10% QS 8% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Seat projection | The 450

LIB 11 [10-11] PQ 18 [16-20] CAQ 4 [2-7] Seat projection | The 450 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-08-25 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 29 LIB 4 PQ 0 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 29 LIB 4 PQ 0 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 29 LIB 4 PQ 0 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 29 LIB 4 PQ 0 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 30 LIB 3 PQ 0 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 29 LIB 4 PQ 0 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 30 LIB 3 PQ 0 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 30 LIB 3 PQ 0 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 29 LIB 3 PQ 1 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 26 LIB 6 PQ 1 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 26 LIB 6 PQ 1 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 24 LIB 8 PQ 1 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 15 LIB 10 PQ 8 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 17 LIB 10 CAQ 6 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 19 LIB 9 CAQ 5 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 21 LIB 10 CAQ 2 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 21 LIB 10 CAQ 2 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 20 LIB 10 CAQ 3 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 20 LIB 10 CAQ 3 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 16 LIB 10 CAQ 7 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 20 LIB 10 CAQ 3 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 18 LIB 11 CAQ 4 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Seat projection | The 450


Latest update: February 6, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
5 10 1 2 18 0
6 4 0 1 11 4
0 2 0 2 4 29
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts | The 450


Latest update: February 6, 2025
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
009 Beauharnois Likely PQ gain
013 Blainville Toss up PQ/CAQ
015 Borduas Likely PQ gain
019 Chambly Likely PQ gain
024 Châteauguay Likely LIB gain
027 Chomedey Safe LIB hold
031 Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ gain
035 Fabre Safe LIB gain
040 Groulx Toss up PQ/CAQ
053 L’Assomption Likely CAQ hold
055 La Pinière Safe LIB hold
056 La Prairie Likely CAQ hold
060 Laporte Likely LIB gain
062 Laval-des-Rapides Likely LIB gain
064 Les Plaines Likely PQ gain
069 Marie-Victorin Safe PQ gain
072 Masson Likely PQ gain
077 Mille-Îles Safe LIB hold
078 Mirabel Toss up PQ/CAQ
080 Montarville Toss up PQ/CAQ
092 Repentigny Likely PQ gain
093 Richelieu Safe PQ gain
100 Rousseau Leaning PQ gain
105 Saint-Jean Safe PQ gain
109 Sainte-Rose Likely LIB gain
110 Sanguinet Likely PQ gain
112 Soulanges Toss up LIB/CAQ
113 Taillon Safe PQ gain
115 Terrebonne Likely PQ gain
118 Vachon Likely PQ gain
120 Vaudreuil Safe LIB hold
121 Verchères Safe PQ gain
124 Vimont Safe LIB gain