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Quebec

The 450, 33 districts


Latest update: April 26, 2024
The 450 37% ± 6% PQ 24% ± 5%▲ CAQ 19% ± 5%▲ LIB 10% ± 3%▼ QS 8% ± 3% QCP 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 26, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
The 450, 33 districts 20▼ [19-23] PQ 11▲ [8-11] LIB 2 [0-3] CAQ 0 [0-0] QS 338Canada seat projection | April 26, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | The 450

LIB 19% ± 5% PQ 37% ± 6% CAQ 24% ± 5% QS 10% ± 3% QCP 8% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | The 450 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP April 26, 2024

Seat projection | The 450

LIB 11 [8-11] PQ 20 [19-23] CAQ 2 [0-3] Seat projection | The 450 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ April 26, 2024

Seat projection | The 450


Latest update: April 26, 2024
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
16 3 1 0 20 0
3 4 3 1 11 4
0 0 0 2 2 29
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts | The 450


Latest update: April 26, 2024
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
009 Beauharnois Safe PQ gain
013 Blainville Leaning PQ gain
015 Borduas Safe PQ gain
019 Chambly Safe PQ gain
024 Châteauguay Leaning LIB gain
027 Chomedey Safe LIB hold
031 Deux-Montagnes Safe PQ gain
035 Fabre Likely LIB gain
040 Groulx Likely PQ gain
053 L’Assomption Toss up PQ/CAQ
055 La Pinière Safe LIB hold
056 La Prairie Toss up PQ/CAQ
060 Laporte Leaning LIB gain
062 Laval-des-Rapides Leaning LIB gain
064 Les Plaines Safe PQ gain
069 Marie-Victorin Safe PQ gain
072 Masson Safe PQ gain
077 Mille-Îles Likely LIB hold
078 Mirabel Likely PQ gain
080 Montarville Safe PQ gain
092 Repentigny Safe PQ gain
093 Richelieu Safe PQ gain
100 Rousseau Likely PQ gain
105 Saint-Jean Safe PQ gain
109 Sainte-Rose Likely LIB gain
110 Sanguinet Safe PQ gain
112 Soulanges Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
113 Taillon Safe PQ gain
115 Terrebonne Safe PQ gain
118 Vachon Safe PQ gain
120 Vaudreuil Safe LIB hold
121 Verchères Safe PQ gain
124 Vimont Likely LIB gain