logo
Quebec

The 450, 33 districts


Latest update: May 16, 2025
The 450 33% ± 6%▼ PQ 25% ± 5%▼ CAQ 22% ± 5%▲ LIB 9% ± 3% CPQ 8% ± 2% QS 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
The 450, 33 districts 20▲ [17-21] PQ 11 [10-11] LIB 2▼ [1-5] CAQ 0 [0-0] CPQ 338Canada seat projection | May 16, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | The 450

LIB 22% ± 5% PQ 33% ± 6% CAQ 25% ± 5% QS 8% ± 2% CPQ 9% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | The 450 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 32% CAQ 28% LIB 17% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 35% CAQ 24% LIB 18% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 37% CAQ 23% LIB 18% QS 12% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 37% CAQ 24% LIB 19% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 36% CAQ 23% LIB 20% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 35% CAQ 26% LIB 20% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 35% CAQ 25% LIB 19% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 31% CAQ 27% LIB 19% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 33% CAQ 25% LIB 19% QS 10% CPQ 10% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 36% CAQ 24% LIB 19% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 36% CAQ 23% LIB 20% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 35% CAQ 24% LIB 20% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 32% CAQ 25% LIB 23% CPQ 10% QS 8% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 32% CAQ 24% LIB 23% CPQ 10% QS 8% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 31% CAQ 26% LIB 23% CPQ 10% QS 8% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 34% CAQ 26% LIB 21% CPQ 9% QS 8% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 33% CAQ 25% LIB 22% CPQ 9% QS 8% 2025-05-16 Ghazal QS co-leader

Seat projection | The 450

LIB 11 [10-11] PQ 20 [17-21] CAQ 2 [1-5] Seat projection | The 450 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 19 LIB 9 CAQ 5 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 21 LIB 10 CAQ 2 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 21 LIB 10 CAQ 2 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 20 LIB 10 CAQ 3 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 20 LIB 10 CAQ 3 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 16 LIB 10 CAQ 7 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 20 LIB 10 CAQ 3 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 18 LIB 11 CAQ 4 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 16 LIB 11 CAQ 6 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 19 LIB 11 CAQ 3 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2025-05-16 Ghazal QS co-leader

Seat projection | The 450


Latest update: May 16, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
6 11 2 1 20 0
6 4 1 0 11 4
0 1 0 1 2 29
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts | The 450


Latest update: May 16, 2025
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
Beauharnois Likely PQ
Blainville Leaning PQ
Borduas Likely PQ
Chambly Likely PQ
Châteauguay Likely LIB
Chomedey Safe LIB
Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ
Fabre Safe LIB
Groulx Leaning PQ
L’Assomption Toss up PQ/CAQ
La Pinière Safe LIB
La Prairie Likely CAQ
Laporte Likely LIB
Laval-des-Rapides Likely LIB
Les Plaines Likely PQ
Marie-Victorin Safe PQ
Masson Likely PQ
Mille-Îles Safe LIB
Mirabel Likely PQ
Montarville Toss up PQ/CAQ
Repentigny Likely PQ
Richelieu Safe PQ
Rousseau Likely PQ
Saint-Jean Safe PQ
Sainte-Rose Likely LIB
Sanguinet Likely PQ
Soulanges Leaning LIB
Taillon Safe PQ
Terrebonne Safe PQ
Vachon Likely PQ
Vaudreuil Safe LIB
Verchères Safe PQ
Vimont Safe LIB