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Quebec

The 450, 33 districts


Latest update: December 8, 2024
The 450 35% ± 6%▼ PQ 24% ± 5%▲ CAQ 20% ± 5% LIB 10% ± 3% QS 9% ± 3% CPQ 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
The 450, 33 districts 20 [18-22] PQ 11 [9-11] LIB 2 [1-5] CAQ 0 [0-0] QS 338Canada seat projection | December 8, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | The 450

LIB 20% ± 5% PQ 35% ± 6% CAQ 24% ± 5% QS 10% ± 3% CPQ 9% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | The 450 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 49% LIB 15% QS 13% PQ 11% CPQ 10% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 49% LIB 15% QS 13% CPQ 11% PQ 10% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 48% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 48% LIB 14% CPQ 13% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 48% LIB 14% CPQ 13% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 48% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 12% PQ 9% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 12% PQ 9% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 12% PQ 11% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 47% LIB 15% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 47% CPQ 15% LIB 15% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 47% CPQ 15% LIB 15% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 47% CPQ 15% LIB 14% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 47% CPQ 15% LIB 14% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 46% LIB 14% CPQ 14% QS 12% PQ 11% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 46% LIB 14% CPQ 14% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 46% LIB 14% CPQ 14% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 47% LIB 14% CPQ 14% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 47% LIB 14% CPQ 14% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 45% LIB 14% CPQ 14% PQ 13% QS 12% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 45% PQ 14% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 12% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 45% PQ 14% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 12% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 45% PQ 14% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 12% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 45% CPQ 14% PQ 13% LIB 13% QS 13% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 46% CPQ 14% LIB 13% PQ 13% QS 12% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 46% CPQ 14% LIB 13% PQ 13% QS 12% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 44% PQ 15% CPQ 14% LIB 13% QS 12% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 45% PQ 15% CPQ 14% LIB 13% QS 12% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 45% PQ 15% CPQ 13% LIB 13% QS 12% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 45% PQ 15% LIB 13% CPQ 13% QS 12% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 45% PQ 15% LIB 13% CPQ 13% QS 12% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 45% PQ 15% LIB 13% CPQ 13% QS 12% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 44% LIB 16% PQ 15% QS 14% CPQ 10% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 44% PQ 17% LIB 15% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 44% PQ 17% LIB 15% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 43% PQ 19% LIB 15% QS 15% CPQ 7% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 43% PQ 19% LIB 15% QS 15% CPQ 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 43% PQ 19% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 44% PQ 20% LIB 15% QS 14% CPQ 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 44% PQ 20% LIB 15% QS 14% CPQ 7% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 41% PQ 22% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 7% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 38% PQ 21% LIB 16% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 38% PQ 21% LIB 16% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 36% PQ 22% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 30% PQ 29% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 31% CAQ 28% LIB 17% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 34% CAQ 25% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 32% CAQ 28% LIB 17% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 35% CAQ 24% LIB 18% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 37% CAQ 23% LIB 18% QS 12% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 37% CAQ 24% LIB 19% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 36% CAQ 23% LIB 20% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 35% CAQ 26% LIB 20% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 35% CAQ 25% LIB 19% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 31% CAQ 27% LIB 19% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 33% CAQ 25% LIB 19% QS 10% CPQ 10% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 36% CAQ 24% LIB 19% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 36% CAQ 23% LIB 20% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 35% CAQ 24% LIB 20% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-12-08

Seat projection | The 450

LIB 11 [9-11] PQ 20 [18-22] CAQ 2 [1-5] Seat projection | The 450 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 32 LIB 1 PQ 0 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 31 LIB 2 PQ 0 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 29 LIB 4 PQ 0 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 29 LIB 4 PQ 0 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 29 LIB 4 PQ 0 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 29 LIB 4 PQ 0 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 30 LIB 3 PQ 0 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 29 LIB 4 PQ 0 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 30 LIB 3 PQ 0 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 30 LIB 3 PQ 0 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 29 LIB 3 PQ 1 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 26 LIB 6 PQ 1 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 26 LIB 6 PQ 1 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 24 LIB 8 PQ 1 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 15 LIB 10 PQ 8 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 17 LIB 10 CAQ 6 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 19 LIB 9 CAQ 5 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 21 LIB 10 CAQ 2 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 21 LIB 10 CAQ 2 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 20 LIB 10 CAQ 3 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 20 LIB 10 CAQ 3 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 16 LIB 10 CAQ 7 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 20 LIB 10 CAQ 3 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 20 LIB 11 CAQ 2 2024-12-08

Seat projection | The 450


Latest update: December 8, 2024
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
8 8 4 0 20 0
3 5 2 1 11 4
0 0 2 0 2 29
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts | The 450


Latest update: December 8, 2024
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
009 Beauharnois Likely PQ gain
013 Blainville Leaning PQ gain
015 Borduas Safe PQ gain
019 Chambly Safe PQ gain
024 Châteauguay Leaning LIB gain
027 Chomedey Safe LIB hold
031 Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ gain
035 Fabre Likely LIB gain
040 Groulx Leaning PQ gain
053 L’Assomption Leaning CAQ hold
055 La Pinière Safe LIB hold
056 La Prairie Leaning CAQ hold
060 Laporte Leaning LIB gain
062 Laval-des-Rapides Likely LIB gain
064 Les Plaines Likely PQ gain
069 Marie-Victorin Safe PQ gain
072 Masson Likely PQ gain
077 Mille-Îles Likely LIB hold
078 Mirabel Leaning PQ gain
080 Montarville Leaning PQ gain
092 Repentigny Likely PQ gain
093 Richelieu Safe PQ gain
100 Rousseau Likely PQ gain
105 Saint-Jean Safe PQ gain
109 Sainte-Rose Likely LIB gain
110 Sanguinet Likely PQ gain
112 Soulanges Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
113 Taillon Safe PQ gain
115 Terrebonne Safe PQ gain
118 Vachon Likely PQ gain
120 Vaudreuil Safe LIB hold
121 Verchères Safe PQ gain
124 Vimont Likely LIB gain