The 450, 33 districts
Latest update: May 16, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today.
The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes.
The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean.
Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.
Seat projection | The 450
Latest update: May 16, 2025
Safe | Likely | Leaning | Toss up | Projected ahead | Last election (2022) | |
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6 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
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6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 |
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0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 29 |
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0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
List of electoral districts | The 450
Latest update: May 16, 2025
Electoral district | Current party | Latest projection |
---|---|---|
Beauharnois | ![]() |
Likely PQ |
Blainville | ![]() |
Leaning PQ |
Borduas | ![]() |
Likely PQ |
Chambly | ![]() |
Likely PQ |
Châteauguay | ![]() |
Likely LIB |
Chomedey | ![]() |
Safe LIB |
Deux-Montagnes | ![]() |
Likely PQ |
Fabre | ![]() |
Safe LIB |
Groulx | ![]() |
Leaning PQ |
L’Assomption | ![]() |
Toss up PQ/CAQ |
La Pinière | ![]() |
Safe LIB |
La Prairie | ![]() |
Likely CAQ |
Laporte | ![]() |
Likely LIB |
Laval-des-Rapides | ![]() |
Likely LIB |
Les Plaines | ![]() |
Likely PQ |
Marie-Victorin | ![]() |
Safe PQ |
Masson | ![]() |
Likely PQ |
Mille-Îles | ![]() |
Safe LIB |
Mirabel | ![]() |
Likely PQ |
Montarville | ![]() |
Toss up PQ/CAQ |
Repentigny | ![]() |
Likely PQ |
Richelieu | ![]() |
Safe PQ |
Rousseau | ![]() |
Likely PQ |
Saint-Jean | ![]() |
Safe PQ |
Sainte-Rose | ![]() |
Likely LIB |
Sanguinet | ![]() |
Likely PQ |
Soulanges | ![]() |
Leaning LIB |
Taillon | ![]() |
Safe PQ |
Terrebonne | ![]() |
Safe PQ |
Vachon | ![]() |
Likely PQ |
Vaudreuil | ![]() |
Safe LIB |
Verchères | ![]() |
Safe PQ |
Vimont | ![]() |
Safe LIB |