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Quebec

Coalition avenir Québec





Last update: March 21, 2024

LeaderFrançois Legault
National popular vote in 202241.0%
Current vote projection22.9% ± 3.2%
Current number of MNA's89
Current seat projection11 [1-29]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 21, 2024 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% Vote efficiency | CAQ 338Canada ©2023 4.9 seat/% 11 [1-29] 23% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | March 21, 2024

16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 19.7% ▼ 22.9% ± 3.2% ▼ Max. 26.2% ▼ Probabilities % CAQ

Seat projection | March 21, 2024

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 1 ▼ 11 ▼ Max. 29 ▼ Probabilities % CAQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Coalition avenir Québec


Last update: March 21, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Papineau Leaning CAQ hold 82%
2. Arthabaska Leaning CAQ hold 77%
3. Chapleau Leaning CAQ hold 75%
4. Champlain Leaning CAQ hold 74%
5. Johnson Leaning CAQ hold 71%
6. Trois-Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ 65%
7. Granby Toss up PQ/CAQ 64%
8. L’Assomption Toss up PQ/CAQ 62%
9. La Prairie Toss up PQ/CAQ 55%
10. Nicolet-Bécancour Toss up PQ/CAQ 55%
11. Abitibi-Est Toss up PQ/CAQ 46%
12. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 46%
13. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Toss up PQ/CAQ 45%
14. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CAQ 44%
15. Chicoutimi Toss up PQ/CAQ 43%
16. Drummond–Bois-Francs Toss up PQ/CAQ 43%
17. Huntingdon Toss up PQ/CAQ 42%
18. Roberval Toss up PQ/CAQ 40%
19. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP 37%
20. Maskinongé Toss up PQ/CAQ 36%
21. Lotbinière-Frontenac Toss up CAQ/QCP 35%
22. Bellechasse Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP 32%
23. Orford Toss up PQ/CAQ 32%
24. Richmond Toss up PQ/CAQ 31%
25. Jonquière Leaning PQ gain 29%
26. Chauveau Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP 28%
27. Lévis Leaning PQ gain 24%
28. Saint-Hyacinthe Leaning PQ gain 24%
29. Brome-Missisquoi Leaning PQ gain 20%
30. Mégantic Leaning PQ gain 18%
31. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ gain 18%
32. Dubuc Leaning PQ gain 18%
33. Portneuf Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP 13%
34. Châteauguay Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 11%
35. Beauce-Sud PCQ likely gain 9%
36. Soulanges Toss up LIB/PQ 8%
37. Beauce-Nord PCQ likely gain 8%
38. Ungava Toss up PQ/QS 7%
39. Lac-Saint-Jean Likely PQ gain 5%
40. Blainville Likely PQ gain 5%
41. Sainte-Rose Toss up LIB/PQ 4%
42. La Peltrie Toss up PQ/QCP 4%
43. Louis-Hébert Likely PQ gain 3%
44. Hull Leaning LIB gain 3%
45. Abitibi-Ouest Likely PQ gain 2%
46. Rousseau Likely PQ gain 2%
47. Saint-François QS leaning gain 1%
48. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Toss up PQ/QS 1%
49. Anjou–Louis-Riel Toss up LIB/PQ 1%
50. Argenteuil Likely PQ gain 1%
51. Groulx Likely PQ gain 1%
52. Iberville Likely PQ gain 1%
53. Mirabel Likely PQ gain 1%
54. Beauharnois Likely PQ gain 1%