logo
Quebec
Quebec flag

Coalition avenir Québec

Latest update: March 31, 2026
LeaderFrançois Legault
National popular vote in 202241.0%
Current vote projection10.3% ± 2.0%
Current number of MNA's79
Current seat projection0 [0-0]

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 31, 2026 10 5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% Vote efficiency | CAQ 338Canada ©2023 0.0 seat/% [0-0] 10% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | March 31, 2026

6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 8.2% 10.3% ± 2.0% Max. 12.3% Probabilities % CAQ March 31, 2026

Seat projection | March 31, 2026

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Min. 0 Max. 0 0 Probabilities % CAQ March 31, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Coalition avenir Québec



Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Christine Fréchette
CA Toss up LIB/PQ
2.
Sonia LeBel
CA Likely PQ
3.
François Legault
CA Likely PQ
4.
François Bonnardel
CA Likely PQ
5.
Simon Jolin-Barrette
CA Safe PQ
6.
Audrey Bogemans
CA Likely PQ
7.
Bernard Drainville
CA Toss up PQ/CPQ