338Canada.com - Québec - Coalition avenir Québec





Last update: June 17, 2021

LeaderFrançois Legault
National popular vote in 201837.4%
Current vote projection46.5% ± 5.6%
Current number of MP's75
Current seat projection96 ± 10



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Coalition avenir Québec



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Granby CAQ safe >99%
2. Arthabaska CAQ safe >99%
3. L'Assomption CAQ safe >99%
4. Mirabel CAQ safe >99%
5. Drummond–Bois-Francs CAQ safe >99%
6. Rousseau CAQ safe >99%
7. Champlain CAQ safe >99%
8. Nicolet-Bécancour CAQ safe >99%
9. Saint-Hyacinthe CAQ safe >99%
10. Blainville CAQ safe >99%
11. Johnson CAQ safe >99%
12. Chambly CAQ safe >99%
13. Masson CAQ safe >99%
14. Repentigny CAQ safe >99%
15. Les Plaines CAQ safe >99%
16. Richelieu CAQ safe >99%
17. Borduas CAQ safe >99%
18. Deux-Montagnes CAQ safe >99%
19. Beauharnois CAQ safe >99%
20. Iberville CAQ safe >99%
21. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière CAQ safe >99%
22. Vachon CAQ safe >99%
23. Prévost CAQ safe >99%
24. La Prairie CAQ safe >99%
25. Sanguinet CAQ safe >99%
26. Lévis CAQ safe >99%
27. Montarville CAQ safe >99%
28. Abitibi-Est CAQ safe >99%
29. Saint-Jérôme CAQ safe >99%
30. Groulx CAQ safe >99%
31. Berthier CAQ safe >99%
32. Mégantic CAQ safe >99%
33. Terrebonne CAQ safe >99%
34. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice CAQ safe >99%
35. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré CAQ safe >99%
36. Bertrand CAQ safe >99%
37. Saint-Jean CAQ safe >99%
38. Côte-du-Sud CAQ safe >99%
39. Trois-Rivières CAQ safe >99%
40. Roberval CAQ safe >99%
41. Argenteuil CAQ safe >99%
42. Bellechasse CAQ safe >99%
43. Pointe-aux-Trembles CAQ safe >99%
44. Papineau CAQ safe >99%
45. Dubuc CAQ safe >99%
46. Maskinongé CAQ safe >99%
47. Verchères CAQ safe >99%
48. Richmond CAQ safe >99%
49. Brome-Missisquoi CAQ safe >99%
50. Vanier-Les Rivières CAQ safe >99%
51. Chicoutimi CAQ safe >99%
52. Taillon CAQ safe >99%
53. Charlesbourg CAQ safe >99%
54. Orford CAQ safe >99%
55. Saint-François CAQ safe >99%
56. Beauce-Nord CAQ safe >99%
57. Portneuf CAQ safe >99%
58. Louis-Hébert CAQ safe >99%
59. Lac-Saint-Jean CAQ safe >99%
60. Montmorency CAQ safe >99%
61. La Peltrie CAQ safe >99%
62. Lotbinière-Frontenac CAQ safe >99%
63. Labelle CAQ safe >99%
64. Beauce-Sud CAQ safe >99%
65. Chauveau CAQ safe >99%
66. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata CAQ safe >99%
67. Gatineau CAQ safe >99%
68. Marie-Victorin CAQ safe >99%
69. Jean-Talon CAQ safe >99%
70. Abitibi-Ouest CAQ safe >99%
71. Duplessis CAQ safe >99%
72. Bourget CAQ safe >99%
73. Sainte-Rose CAQ safe >99%
74. Soulanges CAQ safe >99%
75. Chapleau CAQ likely 99%
76. René-Lévesque CAQ likely 99%
77. Huntingdon CAQ likely 98%
78. Rimouski CAQ likely 98%
79. Ungava CAQ likely 97%
80. Laval-des-Rapides CAQ likely 96%
81. Hull CAQ likely 96%
82. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue CAQ likely 95%
83. Jonquière CAQ likely 95%
84. Châteauguay CAQ likely 95%
85. Bonaventure CAQ likely 94%
86. Gaspé CAQ likely 90%
87. Jean-Lesage CAQ leaning 87%
88. Fabre CAQ leaning 87%
89. Mille-Îles CAQ leaning 80%
90. Joliette CAQ leaning 77%
91. Anjou–Louis-Riel CAQ leaning 75%
92. Vimont CAQ leaning 73%
93. Verdun CAQ leaning 72%
94. Maurice-Richard CAQ leaning 70%
95. Vaudreuil Toss up 66%
96. Taschereau Toss up 59%
97. Sherbrooke Toss up 59%
98. Rosemont Toss up 52%
99. Laporte Toss up 51%
100. Marquette Toss up 47%
101. La Pinière Toss up 45%
102. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up 36%
103. Marguerite-Bourgeoys LIB leaning 20%
104. Bourassa-Sauvé LIB leaning 11%
105. LaFontaine LIB likely 5%
106. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne LIB likely 4%
107. Pontiac LIB likely 3%
108. Viau LIB likely 2%
109. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS likely <1%
110. Chomedey LIB likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Granby CAQ safe
2. Arthabaska CAQ safe
3. L'Assomption CAQ safe
4. Mirabel CAQ safe
5. Drummond–Bois-Francs CAQ safe
6. Rousseau CAQ safe
7. Champlain CAQ safe
8. Nicolet-Bécancour CAQ safe
9. Saint-Hyacinthe CAQ safe
10. Blainville CAQ safe
11. Johnson CAQ safe
12. Chambly CAQ safe
13. Masson CAQ safe
14. Repentigny CAQ safe
15. Les Plaines CAQ safe
16. Richelieu CAQ safe
17. Borduas CAQ safe
18. Deux-Montagnes CAQ safe
19. Beauharnois CAQ safe
20. Iberville CAQ safe
21. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière CAQ safe
22. Vachon CAQ safe
23. Prévost CAQ safe
24. La Prairie CAQ safe
25. Sanguinet CAQ safe
26. Lévis CAQ safe
27. Montarville CAQ safe
28. Abitibi-Est CAQ safe
29. Saint-Jérôme CAQ safe
30. Groulx CAQ safe
31. Berthier CAQ safe
32. Mégantic CAQ safe
33. Terrebonne CAQ safe
34. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice CAQ safe
35. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré CAQ safe
36. Bertrand CAQ safe
37. Saint-Jean CAQ safe
38. Côte-du-Sud CAQ safe
39. Trois-Rivières CAQ safe
40. Roberval CAQ safe
41. Argenteuil CAQ safe
42. Bellechasse CAQ safe
43. Pointe-aux-Trembles CAQ safe
44. Papineau CAQ safe
45. Dubuc CAQ safe
46. Maskinongé CAQ safe
47. Verchères CAQ safe
48. Richmond CAQ safe
49. Brome-Missisquoi CAQ safe
50. Vanier-Les Rivières CAQ safe
51. Chicoutimi CAQ safe
52. Taillon CAQ safe
53. Charlesbourg CAQ safe
54. Orford CAQ safe
55. Saint-François CAQ safe
56. Beauce-Nord CAQ safe
57. Portneuf CAQ safe
58. Louis-Hébert CAQ safe
59. Lac-Saint-Jean CAQ safe
60. Montmorency CAQ safe
61. La Peltrie CAQ safe
62. Lotbinière-Frontenac CAQ safe
63. Labelle CAQ safe
64. Beauce-Sud CAQ safe
65. Chauveau CAQ safe
66. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata CAQ safe
67. Gatineau CAQ safe
68. Marie-Victorin CAQ safe
69. Jean-Talon CAQ safe
70. Abitibi-Ouest CAQ safe
71. Duplessis CAQ safe
72. Bourget CAQ safe
73. Sainte-Rose CAQ safe
74. Soulanges CAQ safe
75. Chapleau CAQ likely
76. René-Lévesque CAQ likely
77. Huntingdon CAQ likely
78. Rimouski CAQ likely
79. Ungava CAQ likely
80. Laval-des-Rapides CAQ likely
81. Hull CAQ likely
82. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue CAQ likely
83. Jonquière CAQ likely
84. Châteauguay CAQ likely
85. Bonaventure CAQ likely
86. Gaspé CAQ likely
87. Jean-Lesage CAQ leaning
88. Fabre CAQ leaning
89. Mille-Îles CAQ leaning
90. Joliette CAQ leaning
91. Anjou–Louis-Riel CAQ leaning
92. Vimont CAQ leaning
93. Verdun CAQ leaning
94. Maurice-Richard CAQ leaning
95. Vaudreuil Toss up
96. Taschereau Toss up
97. Sherbrooke Toss up
98. Rosemont Toss up
99. Laporte Toss up
100. Marquette Toss up
101. La Pinière Toss up
102. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up
103. Marguerite-Bourgeoys LIB leaning
104. Bourassa-Sauvé LIB leaning
105. LaFontaine LIB likely
106. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne LIB likely
107. Pontiac LIB likely
108. Viau LIB likely
109. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS likely
110. Chomedey LIB likely



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