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Quebec

Coalition avenir Québec





Last update: December 8, 2024

LeaderFrançois Legault
National popular vote in 202241.0%
Current vote projection22.0% ± 2.8%
Current number of MNA's86
Current seat projection9 [1-23]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% Vote efficiency | CAQ 338Canada ©2023 4.6 seat/% 9 [1-23] 22% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | December 8, 2024

16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 19.2% ▼ 22.0% ± 2.8% ▼ Max. 24.8% ▼ Probabilities % CAQ

Seat projection | December 8, 2024

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 1 ▼ 9 ▼ Max. 23 ▼ Probabilities % CAQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Coalition avenir Québec


Last update: December 8, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Papineau Likely CAQ hold 96%
2. Champlain Leaning CAQ hold 82%
3. L’Assomption Leaning CAQ hold 78%
4. La Prairie Leaning CAQ hold 73%
5. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 67%
6. Johnson Toss up PQ/CAQ 66%
7. Richmond Toss up PQ/CAQ 61%
8. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ 45%
9. Arthabaska Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 39%
10. Soulanges Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 38%
11. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 37%
12. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 34%
13. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 34%
14. Granby Leaning PQ gain 28%
15. Trois-Rivières Leaning PQ gain 27%
16. Chauveau Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 26%
17. Lotbinière-Frontenac Toss up CAQ/CPQ 25%
18. Lévis Leaning PQ gain 25%
19. Groulx Leaning PQ gain 24%
20. Blainville Leaning PQ gain 22%
21. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 20%
22. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 19%
23. Nicolet-Bécancour Leaning PQ gain 17%
24. Saint-François Leaning PQ gain 15%
25. Maskinongé Leaning PQ gain 14%
26. Drummond–Bois-Francs Leaning PQ gain 14%
27. Châteauguay Leaning LIB gain 13%
28. Mirabel Leaning PQ gain 12%
29. Montarville Leaning PQ gain 12%
30. Côte-du-Sud Leaning PQ gain 11%
31. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Leaning PQ gain 11%
32. Bellechasse PCQ leaning gain 11%
33. Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ gain 10%
34. Saint-Hyacinthe Likely PQ gain 9%
35. Portneuf Toss up PQ/CPQ 9%
36. Beauce-Sud PCQ likely gain 9%
37. Chicoutimi Likely PQ gain 7%
38. Roberval Likely PQ gain 7%
39. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Likely PQ gain 6%
40. Sainte-Rose Likely LIB gain 6%
41. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Leaning PQ gain 6%
42. Beauce-Nord PCQ likely gain 5%
43. Vanier-Les Rivières Likely PQ gain 4%
44. Rousseau Likely PQ gain 3%
45. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 3%
46. Jonquière Likely PQ gain 2%
47. Louis-Hébert Likely PQ gain 2%
48. Dubuc Likely PQ gain 1%
49. Beauharnois Likely PQ gain 1%
50. Repentigny Likely PQ gain 1%
51. Les Plaines Likely PQ gain 1%