Coalition avenir Québec

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Coalition avenir Québec

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	La Prairie	Likely CAQ	94%
2.	L’Assomption	Toss up PQ/CAQ	69%
3.	Papineau	Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ	61%
4.	Mégantic	Toss up PQ/CAQ	54%
5.	Champlain	Toss up PQ/CAQ	46%
6.	Montarville	Toss up PQ/CAQ	44%
7.	Granby	Toss up PQ/CAQ	35%
8.	Iberville	Toss up PQ/CAQ	34%
9.	Chapleau	Toss up LIB/CAQ	29%
10.	Johnson	Leaning PQ	27%
11.	Soulanges	Leaning LIB	27%
12.	Groulx	Leaning PQ	24%
13.	Blainville	Leaning PQ	21%
14.	Richmond	Leaning PQ	21%
15.	Arthabaska	Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ	15%
16.	Huntingdon	Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ	14%
17.	Brome-Missisquoi	Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ	13%
18.	Gatineau	Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ	10%
19.	Mirabel	Likely PQ	10%
20.	Beauharnois	Likely PQ	10%
21.	Orford	Toss up LIB/PQ	9%
22.	Trois-Rivières	Likely PQ	5%
23.	Lotbinière-Frontenac	PCQ leaning	5%
24.	Nicolet-Bécancour	Likely PQ	5%
25.	Saint-François	Likely PQ	4%
26.	Côte-du-Sud	Likely PQ	4%
27.	Borduas	Likely PQ	4%
28.	Lévis	Likely PQ	4%
29.	Sanguinet	Likely PQ	4%
30.	Châteauguay	Likely LIB	3%
31.	Beauce-Sud	PCQ likely	2%
32.	Maskinongé	Likely PQ	2%
33.	Vachon	Likely PQ	2%
34.	Drummond–Bois-Francs	Likely PQ	2%
35.	Abitibi-Est	Likely PQ	2%
36.	Rousseau	Likely PQ	2%
37.	Saint-Hyacinthe	Likely PQ	1%
38.	Beauce-Nord	PCQ likely	1%
39.	Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata	Likely PQ	1%
40.	Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue	Likely PQ	1%
41.	Laviolette-Saint-Maurice	Likely PQ	1%
42.	Chambly	Likely PQ	1%
43.	Chutes-de-la-Chaudière	Toss up PQ/CPQ	1%
44.	Ungava	Toss up LIB/PQ	1%