338Canada.com - Québec - Coalition avenir Québec





Last update: October 22, 2020

LeaderFrançois Legault
National popular vote in 201937.4%
Current vote projection50.9% ± 5.6%
Current number of MNA's76
Current seat projection97 ± 10


Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to Coalition avenir Québec



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Beauce-Nord CAQ safe >99%
2. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière CAQ safe >99%
3. La Peltrie CAQ safe >99%
4. Granby CAQ safe >99%
5. Arthabaska CAQ safe >99%
6. Lévis CAQ safe >99%
7. Beauce-Sud CAQ safe >99%
8. Portneuf CAQ safe >99%
9. L'Assomption CAQ safe >99%
10. Mirabel CAQ safe >99%
11. Drummond–Bois-Francs CAQ safe >99%
12. Charlesbourg CAQ safe >99%
13. Bellechasse CAQ safe >99%
14. Montmorency CAQ safe >99%
15. Champlain CAQ safe >99%
16. Blainville CAQ safe >99%
17. Nicolet-Bécancour CAQ safe >99%
18. Johnson CAQ safe >99%
19. Vanier-Les Rivières CAQ safe >99%
20. Côte-du-Sud CAQ safe >99%
21. Saint-Hyacinthe CAQ safe >99%
22. Chambly CAQ safe >99%
23. Repentigny CAQ safe >99%
24. Vachon CAQ safe >99%
25. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré CAQ safe >99%
26. Lotbinière-Frontenac CAQ safe >99%
27. Rousseau CAQ safe >99%
28. Masson CAQ safe >99%
29. Mégantic CAQ safe >99%
30. Deux-Montagnes CAQ safe >99%
31. Chauveau CAQ safe >99%
32. Borduas CAQ safe >99%
33. Beauharnois CAQ safe >99%
34. Richelieu CAQ safe >99%
35. La Prairie CAQ safe >99%
36. Iberville CAQ safe >99%
37. Les Plaines CAQ safe >99%
38. Louis-Hébert CAQ safe >99%
39. Groulx CAQ safe >99%
40. Montarville CAQ safe >99%
41. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice CAQ safe >99%
42. Sanguinet CAQ safe >99%
43. Prévost CAQ safe >99%
44. Terrebonne CAQ safe >99%
45. Roberval CAQ safe >99%
46. Berthier CAQ safe >99%
47. Trois-Rivières CAQ safe >99%
48. Saint-Jean CAQ safe >99%
49. Abitibi-Est CAQ safe >99%
50. Bertrand CAQ safe >99%
51. Papineau CAQ safe >99%
52. Maskinongé CAQ safe >99%
53. Argenteuil CAQ safe >99%
54. Brome-Missisquoi CAQ safe >99%
55. Dubuc CAQ safe >99%
56. Orford CAQ safe >99%
57. Richmond CAQ safe >99%
58. Taillon CAQ safe >99%
59. Chicoutimi CAQ safe >99%
60. Laval-des-Rapides CAQ safe >99%
61. Saint-François CAQ safe >99%
62. Saint-Jérôme CAQ safe >99%
63. Gatineau CAQ safe >99%
64. Jean-Talon CAQ safe >99%
65. Bourget CAQ safe >99%
66. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata CAQ safe >99%
67. Pointe-aux-Trembles CAQ safe >99%
68. Jean-Lesage CAQ safe >99%
69. Sainte-Rose CAQ safe >99%
70. Soulanges CAQ safe >99%
71. Chapleau CAQ safe >99%
72. Verchères CAQ safe >99%
73. Lac-Saint-Jean CAQ safe >99%
74. Huntingdon CAQ safe >99%
75. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue CAQ safe >99%
76. Labelle CAQ likely 99%
77. Marie-Victorin CAQ likely 99%
78. Hull CAQ likely 99%
79. Fabre CAQ likely 99%
80. Châteauguay CAQ likely 99%
81. Mille-Îles CAQ likely 98%
82. Abitibi-Ouest CAQ likely 97%
83. Duplessis CAQ likely 96%
84. Ungava CAQ likely 96%
85. Vimont CAQ likely 96%
86. Maurice-Richard CAQ likely 95%
87. Vaudreuil CAQ likely 94%
88. Anjou–Louis-Riel CAQ likely 91%
89. Laporte CAQ leaning 89%
90. Verdun CAQ leaning 83%
91. Marquette CAQ leaning 81%
92. Sherbrooke CAQ leaning 74%
93. René-Lévesque CAQ leaning 70%
94. La Pinière Toss up 69%
95. Gaspé Toss up 68%
96. Bourassa-Sauvé Toss up 60%
97. Taschereau Toss up 46%
98. Bonaventure Toss up 43%
99. Jonquière Toss up 37%
100. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Toss up 35%
101. Joliette Toss up 31%
102. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up 30%
103. Rosemont Toss up 28%
104. Rimouski PQ leaning 28%
105. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne LIB leaning 26%
106. Chomedey LIB leaning 20%
107. LaFontaine LIB leaning 15%
108. Pontiac LIB leaning 12%
109. Viau LIB likely 7%
110. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS likely 3%
111. Acadie LIB likely 3%
112. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Beauce-Nord CAQ safe
2. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière CAQ safe
3. La Peltrie CAQ safe
4. Granby CAQ safe
5. Arthabaska CAQ safe
6. Lévis CAQ safe
7. Beauce-Sud CAQ safe
8. Portneuf CAQ safe
9. L'Assomption CAQ safe
10. Mirabel CAQ safe
11. Drummond–Bois-Francs CAQ safe
12. Charlesbourg CAQ safe
13. Bellechasse CAQ safe
14. Montmorency CAQ safe
15. Champlain CAQ safe
16. Blainville CAQ safe
17. Nicolet-Bécancour CAQ safe
18. Johnson CAQ safe
19. Vanier-Les Rivières CAQ safe
20. Côte-du-Sud CAQ safe
21. Saint-Hyacinthe CAQ safe
22. Chambly CAQ safe
23. Repentigny CAQ safe
24. Vachon CAQ safe
25. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré CAQ safe
26. Lotbinière-Frontenac CAQ safe
27. Rousseau CAQ safe
28. Masson CAQ safe
29. Mégantic CAQ safe
30. Deux-Montagnes CAQ safe
31. Chauveau CAQ safe
32. Borduas CAQ safe
33. Beauharnois CAQ safe
34. Richelieu CAQ safe
35. La Prairie CAQ safe
36. Iberville CAQ safe
37. Les Plaines CAQ safe
38. Louis-Hébert CAQ safe
39. Groulx CAQ safe
40. Montarville CAQ safe
41. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice CAQ safe
42. Sanguinet CAQ safe
43. Prévost CAQ safe
44. Terrebonne CAQ safe
45. Roberval CAQ safe
46. Berthier CAQ safe
47. Trois-Rivières CAQ safe
48. Saint-Jean CAQ safe
49. Abitibi-Est CAQ safe
50. Bertrand CAQ safe
51. Papineau CAQ safe
52. Maskinongé CAQ safe
53. Argenteuil CAQ safe
54. Brome-Missisquoi CAQ safe
55. Dubuc CAQ safe
56. Orford CAQ safe
57. Richmond CAQ safe
58. Taillon CAQ safe
59. Chicoutimi CAQ safe
60. Laval-des-Rapides CAQ safe
61. Saint-François CAQ safe
62. Saint-Jérôme CAQ safe
63. Gatineau CAQ safe
64. Jean-Talon CAQ safe
65. Bourget CAQ safe
66. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata CAQ safe
67. Pointe-aux-Trembles CAQ safe
68. Jean-Lesage CAQ safe
69. Sainte-Rose CAQ safe
70. Soulanges CAQ safe
71. Chapleau CAQ safe
72. Verchères CAQ safe
73. Lac-Saint-Jean CAQ safe
74. Huntingdon CAQ safe
75. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue CAQ safe
76. Labelle CAQ likely
77. Marie-Victorin CAQ likely
78. Hull CAQ likely
79. Fabre CAQ likely
80. Châteauguay CAQ likely
81. Mille-Îles CAQ likely
82. Abitibi-Ouest CAQ likely
83. Duplessis CAQ likely
84. Ungava CAQ likely
85. Vimont CAQ likely
86. Maurice-Richard CAQ likely
87. Vaudreuil CAQ likely
88. Anjou–Louis-Riel CAQ likely
89. Laporte CAQ leaning
90. Verdun CAQ leaning
91. Marquette CAQ leaning
92. Sherbrooke CAQ leaning
93. René-Lévesque CAQ leaning
94. La Pinière Toss up
95. Gaspé Toss up
96. Bourassa-Sauvé Toss up
97. Taschereau Toss up
98. Bonaventure Toss up
99. Jonquière Toss up
100. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Toss up
101. Joliette Toss up
102. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up
103. Rosemont Toss up
104. Rimouski PQ leaning
105. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne LIB leaning
106. Chomedey LIB leaning
107. LaFontaine LIB leaning
108. Pontiac LIB leaning
109. Viau LIB likely
110. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS likely
111. Acadie LIB likely
112. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely