Coalition avenir Québec

Last update: June 27, 2025
Leader | François Legault |
National popular vote in 2022 | 41.0% |
Current vote projection | 16.9% ± 2.4% |
Current number of MNA's | 86 |
Current seat projection | 0 [0-6] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Vote projection | June 27, 2025
Seat projection | June 27, 2025
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Coalition avenir Québec
Last update: June 27, 2025
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Champlain | ![]() |
Toss up PQ/CAQ | 41% |
2. | Iberville | ![]() |
Toss up PQ/CAQ | 38% |
3. | Granby | ![]() |
Leaning PQ | 29% |
4. | La Prairie | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | 27% |
5. | Johnson | ![]() |
Leaning PQ | 23% |
6. | L’Assomption | ![]() |
Leaning PQ | 16% |
7. | Mégantic | ![]() |
Toss up PQ/CPQ | 7% |
8. | Trois-Rivières | ![]() |
Likely PQ | 5% |
9. | Nicolet-Bécancour | ![]() |
Likely PQ | 4% |
10. | Richmond | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/PQ | 3% |
11. | Montarville | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/PQ | 2% |
12. | Côte-du-Sud | ![]() |
Leaning PQ | 2% |
13. | Maskinongé | ![]() |
Likely PQ | 2% |
14. | Drummond–Bois-Francs | ![]() |
Likely PQ | 2% |
15. | Groulx | ![]() |
Likely PQ | 1% |
16. | Saint-Hyacinthe | ![]() |
Likely PQ | 1% |
17. | Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata | ![]() |
Likely PQ | 1% |
18. | Lévis | ![]() |
Likely PQ | 1% |
19. | Abitibi-Est | ![]() |
Leaning PQ | 1% |
20. | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue | ![]() |
Likely PQ | 1% |
21. | Laviolette-Saint-Maurice | ![]() |
Likely PQ | 1% |