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Coalition avenir Québec

Latest update: August 12, 2026
LeaderChristine Fréchette
National popular vote in 202241.0%
Current vote projection20.5% ± 3.0%
Current number of MNA's79
Current seat projection6 [0-21]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | August 12, 2026 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% Vote efficiency | CAQ 338Canada ©2023 3.8 seat/% [0-21] 20% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | August 12, 2026

14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 17.5% ▼ 20.5% ± 3.0% ▼ Max. 23.4% ▼ Probabilities % CAQ August 12, 2026

Seat projection | August 12, 2026

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 6 ▼ Max. 21 ▼ Probabilities % CAQ August 12, 2026

The Road to 64 Seats | Coalition avenir Québec


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Borduas Leaning CAQ 1 BORD 2. Trois-Rivières Leaning CAQ 2 TRIV 3. Granby Toss up PQ/CAQ 3 GRBY 4. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 4 CHPN 5. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Toss up PQ/CAQ 5 MLGL 6. Montarville Toss up PQ/CAQ 6 MTRV 7. Daniel-Johnson Toss up PQ/CAQ 7 DAJO 8. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 8 CHAP 9. Iberville Toss up PQ/CAQ 9 IBER 10. Papineau Toss up LIB/CAQ 10 PAPI 11. La Prairie Toss up PQ/CAQ 11 LAPR 12. Chambly Toss up PQ/CAQ 12 CHBY 13. Lévis Toss up CAQ/CPQ 13 LEVI 14. Louis-Hébert Toss up PQ/CAQ 14 LHEB 15. Beauharnois Toss up PQ/CAQ 15 BEAU 16. Nicolet-Bécancour Toss up PQ/CAQ 16 NICO 17. Mégantic Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ/CPQ 17 MEGA 18. Groulx Leaning PQ 18 GROU 19. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ leaning 19 CHCH 20. Mirabel Leaning PQ 20 MIRA 21. Vanier-Les Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 21 VALR 22. Richmond Leaning LIB 22 RCHM 23. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ 23 LVSM 24. Maskinongé Likely PQ 24 MASK 25. L’Assomption Likely PQ 25 LASS 26. Sanguinet Likely PQ 26 SANG 27. Blainville Leaning PQ 27 BLAI 28. Rousseau Likely PQ 28 ROUS 29. Drummond–Bois-Francs Likely PQ 29 DRUM 30. Verchères Likely PQ 30 VERC 31. Montmorency PCQ likely 31 MOMO 32. Repentigny Likely PQ 32 REPE 33. Charlesbourg Toss up PQ/CPQ 33 CHAR 34. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CPQ 34 CÔDS 35. Vachon Likely PQ 35 VACH 36. Les Plaines Likely PQ 36 LPLA 37. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ likely 37 LOTF 38. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ 38 DMON 39. Masson Likely PQ 39 MASS 40. Bellefeuille Likely PQ 40 BELF 41. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Likely PQ 41 RDLT 42. Terrebonne Likely PQ 42 TERR 43. Chauveau PCQ likely 43 CHAU 44. Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ 44 ABIE 45. Portneuf PCQ likely 45 PORT 46. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely PQ 46 ROUY 47. Richelieu Safe PQ 47 RCHL 48. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe PQ 48 StHY 49. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 49 UNGA 50. Taillon Likely PQ 50 TAIL 51. La Peltrie PCQ likely 51 LAPE 52. Huntingdon Likely LIB 52 HUNT 53. Saint-François Toss up LIB/PQ 53 STFR 54. Beauce-Sud PCQ safe 54 BEAS 55. Gatineau Likely LIB 55 GATI 56. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ 56 CXCB 57. Saint-Jean Safe PQ 57 StJN 58. René-Lévesque Safe PQ 58 RENE 59. Soulanges Safe LIB 59 SOUL 60. Orford Safe LIB 60 ORFO 61. Dubuc Safe PQ 61 DUBU 62. Roberval Safe PQ 62 ROBV 63. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ 63 StJR 64. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ 64 MVIC 65. Jonquière Safe PQ 65 JONQ 66. Bertrand Safe PQ 66 BERT 67. Bellechasse PCQ safe 67 BELL 68. Laval-des-Rapides Safe LIB 68 LVDR 69. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 69 LASJ 70. Brome-Missisquoi Likely LIB 70 BROM 71. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 71 PATR 72. Joliette Safe PQ 72 JOLI 73. Berthier Safe PQ 73 BRTH 74. Labelle Safe PQ 74 LABL 75. Chicoutimi Safe PQ 75 CHIC 76. Prévost Safe PQ 76 PREV 77. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ 77 ABIO 78. Rimouski Safe PQ 78 RIMO 79. Sainte-Rose Safe LIB 79 StRO 80. Arthabaska-L’Érable Likely PQ 80 ARTH 81. Châteauguay Safe LIB 81 CHAT 82. Gaspé Safe PQ 82 GASP 83. Beauce-Nord PCQ safe 83 BEAN 84. Duplessis Safe PQ 84 DUPL 85. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 85 LAPO 86. Bonaventure Safe PQ 86 BONA 87. Vimont-Auteuil Safe LIB 87 VIMO 88. Argenteuil Safe PQ 88 ARGE 89. Fabre Safe LIB 89 FABR 90. Mille-Îles Safe LIB 90 MILI 91. Sherbrooke Toss up LIB/PQ 91 SHER 92. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 92 IDLM 93. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 93 VAUD 94. La Pinière Safe LIB 94 LAPI 95. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 95 MAMA 96. Hull Safe LIB 96 HULL 97. Anjou–Louis-Riel Safe LIB 97 ANLR 98. Jean-Talon Toss up LIB/PQ 98 JTAL 99. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 99 CAML 100. Jean-Lesage QS leaning 100 JLES 101. Taschereau Toss up PQ/QS 101 TASH 102. Maurice-Richard Leaning PQ 102 MAUR 103. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 103 ROSE 104. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Toss up PQ/QS 104 HOMA 105. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 105 MROU 106. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely 106 SMSJ 107. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 107 StLR 108. Verdun Safe LIB 108 VERD 109. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 109 JMVI 110. Gouin QS safe 110 GOUI 111. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Leaning LIB 111 SHSA 112. Pontiac Safe LIB 112 PONT 113. Chomedey Safe LIB 113 CHOM 114. LaFontaine Safe LIB 114 LAFO 115. Marquette Safe LIB 115 MARQ 116. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 116 BOUS 117. Mercier QS safe 117 MERC 118. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 118 MARG 119. Viau Safe LIB 119 VIAU 120. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 120 WSTL 121. Laurier-Dorion Toss up LIB/QS 121 LAUD 122. Acadie Safe LIB 122 ACAD 123. Nelligan Safe LIB 123 NELL 124. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 124 DAMC 125. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 125 BALD 126. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 126 JACA 127. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 127 NODG 338Canada Quebec projection Updated August 12, 2026

Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Borduas
Simon Jolin-Barrette
 CA Leaning CAQ
2.
Trois-Rivières
Jean Boulet
 CA Leaning CAQ
3.
Granby
François Bonnardel
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
4.
Champlain
Sonia LeBel
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
5.
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie
Vacant
 Toss up PQ/CAQ
6.
Montarville
Nathalie Roy
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
7.
Daniel-Johnson
André Lamontagne
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
8.
Chapleau
Mathieu Lévesque
 CA Toss up LIB/CAQ
9.
Iberville
Audrey Bogemans
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
10.
Papineau
Mathieu Lacombe
 CA Toss up LIB/CAQ
11.
La Prairie
Christian Dubé [Elected as CAQ]
 I Toss up PQ/CAQ
12.
Chambly
Jean-François Roberge
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
13.
Lévis
Bernard Drainville
 CA Toss up CAQ/CPQ
14.
Louis-Hébert
Geneviève Guilbault
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
15.
Beauharnois
Claude Reid
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
16.
Nicolet-Bécancour
Donald Martel
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
17.
Mégantic
François Jacques
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ/CPQ
18.
Groulx
Éric Girard
 CA Leaning PQ
19.
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Martine Biron
 CA PCQ leaning
20.
Mirabel
Sylvie D’Amours
 CA Leaning PQ
21.
Vanier-Les Rivières
Mario Asselin
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
22.
Richmond
André Bachand
 CA Leaning LIB
23.
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice
Marie-Louise Tardif
 CA Leaning PQ
24.
Maskinongé
Simon Allaire
 CA Likely PQ
25.
L’Assomption
François Legault
 CA Likely PQ
26.
Sanguinet
Christine Fréchette
 CA Likely PQ
27.
Blainville
Mario Laframboise
 CA Leaning PQ
28.
Rousseau
Louis-Charles Thouin
 CA Likely PQ
29.
Drummond–Bois-Francs
Sébastien Schneeberger
 CA Likely PQ
30.
Verchères
Suzanne Roy
 CA Likely PQ
31.
Montmorency
Jean-François Simard
 CA PCQ likely
32.
Repentigny
Pascale Déry
 CA Likely PQ
33.
Charlesbourg
Jonatan Julien
 CA Toss up PQ/CPQ
34.
Côte-du-Sud
Mathieu Rivest
 CA Toss up PQ/CPQ
35.
Vachon
Ian Lafrenière
 CA Likely PQ
36.
Les Plaines
Lucie Lecours
 CA Likely PQ
37.
Lotbinière-Frontenac
Isabelle Lecours
 CA PCQ likely
38.
Deux-Montagnes
Benoit Charette
 CA Likely PQ
39.
Masson
Mathieu Lemay
 CA Likely PQ
40.
Bellefeuille
Vacant
 Likely PQ
41.
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques
Amélie Dionne
 CA Likely PQ
42.
Terrebonne
Catherine Gentilcore
 PQ Likely PQ
43.
Chauveau
Sylvain Lévesque
 CA PCQ likely
44.
Abitibi-Est
Pierre Dufour [Elected as CAQ]
 I Leaning PQ
45.
Portneuf
Vincent Caron
 CA PCQ likely
46.
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue
Daniel Bernard
 CA Likely PQ
47.
Richelieu
Jean-Bernard Émond
 CA Safe PQ
48.
Saint-Hyacinthe
Chantal Soucy
 CA Safe PQ
49.
Ungava
Denis Lamothe
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ
50.
Taillon
Lionel Carmant
 CA Likely PQ
51.
La Peltrie
Éric Caire
 CA PCQ likely
52.
Huntingdon
Carole Mallette
 CA Likely LIB
53.
Saint-François
Geneviève Hébert
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ
54.
Beauce-Sud
Samuel Poulin
 CA PCQ safe
55.
Gatineau
Robert Bussière
 CA Likely LIB
56.
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré
Kariane Bourassa
 CA Safe PQ
57.
Saint-Jean
Louis Lemieux
 CA Safe PQ
58.
René-Lévesque
Yves Montigny
 CA Safe PQ
59.
Soulanges
Marilyne Picard
 CA Safe LIB
60.
Orford
Gilles Bélanger [Elected as CAQ]
 I Safe LIB
61.
Dubuc
François Tremblay [Elected as CAQ]
 I Safe PQ
62.
Roberval
Nancy Guillemette
 CA Safe PQ
63.
Saint-Jérôme
Youri Chassin [Elected as CAQ]
 I Safe PQ
64.
Marie-Victorin
Shirley Dorismond
 CA Safe PQ
65.
Jonquière
Yannick Gagnon
 CA Safe PQ
66.
Bertrand
France-Élaine Duranceau
 CA Safe PQ
67.
Bellechasse
Stéphanie Lachance
 CA PCQ safe
68.
Laval-des-Rapides
Céline Haytayan
 CA Safe LIB
69.
Lac-Saint-Jean
Éric Girard
 CA Safe PQ
70.
Brome-Missisquoi
Isabelle Charest
 CA Likely LIB
71.
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Chantal Rouleau
 CA Safe PQ