Coalition avenir Québec
Latest update: March 5, 2026
| Leader | François Legault |
| National popular vote in 2022 | 41.0% |
| Current vote projection | 13.9% ± 2.5% |
| Current number of MNA's | 79 |
| Current seat projection | 0 [0-3] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Vote projection | March 5, 2026
Seat projection | March 5, 2026
List of favourable electoral districts | Coalition avenir Québec
| Electoral districts | Current party | Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Sonia LeBel
|
Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
| 2. | Christine Fréchette
|
Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | |
| 3. | François Legault
|
Leaning PQ | |
| 4. | François Bonnardel
|
Leaning PQ | |
| 5. | Simon Jolin-Barrette
|
Likely PQ | |
| 6. | Audrey Bogemans
|
Likely PQ | |
| 7. | Bernard Drainville
|
Toss up PQ/CPQ | |
| 8. | Claude Reid
|
Likely PQ | |
| 9. | Christian Dubé [Elected as CAQ]
|
Toss up LIB/PQ | |
| 10. | Nathalie Roy
|
Toss up LIB/PQ | |
| 11. | Vincent Caron
|
PCQ likely | |
| 12. | Mathieu Lévesque
|
Likely LIB | |
| 13. | Geneviève Guilbault
|
Likely PQ | |
| 14. | Mathieu Lacombe
|
Likely LIB | |
| 15. | François Jacques
|
Toss up LIB/CPQ | |
| 16. | André Lamontagne
|
Safe PQ | |
| 17. | Éric Girard
|
Toss up LIB/PQ | |
| 18. | Martine Biron
|
PCQ leaning | |
| 19. | Sylvie D’Amours
|
Safe PQ | |
| 20. | Jean Boulet
|
Safe PQ | |
| 21. | André Bachand
|
Likely LIB | |
| 22. | Pascale Déry
|
Safe PQ | |
| 23. | Louis-Charles Thouin
|
Safe PQ | |
| 24. | Suzanne Roy
|
Safe PQ | |
| 25. | Sébastien Schneeberger
|
Safe PQ | |
| 26. | Jean-François Roberge
|
Likely PQ | |
| 27. | Marie-Louise Tardif
|
Safe PQ | |
| 28. | Donald Martel
|
Likely PQ | |
| 29. | Mario Asselin
|
Leaning PQ |