338Canada Quebec | Coalition avenir Québec





Last update: January 20, 2022

LeaderFrançois Legault
National popular vote in 201837.4%
Current vote projection40.6% ± 5.3%
Current number of MNA's75
Current seat projection94 [75-103]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Coalition avenir Québec



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Arthabaska CAQ safe >99%
2. Mirabel CAQ safe >99%
3. L’Assomption CAQ safe >99%
4. Rousseau CAQ safe >99%
5. Drummond–Bois-Francs CAQ safe >99%
6. Granby CAQ safe >99%
7. Repentigny CAQ safe >99%
8. Richelieu CAQ safe >99%
9. Nicolet-Bécancour CAQ safe >99%
10. Masson CAQ safe >99%
11. Saint-Hyacinthe CAQ safe >99%
12. Johnson CAQ safe >99%
13. Les Plaines CAQ safe >99%
14. Champlain CAQ safe >99%
15. Blainville CAQ safe >99%
16. Beauharnois CAQ safe >99%
17. Deux-Montagnes CAQ safe >99%
18. Sanguinet CAQ safe >99%
19. Montarville CAQ safe >99%
20. Iberville CAQ safe >99%
21. Groulx CAQ safe >99%
22. Vachon CAQ safe >99%
23. Borduas CAQ safe >99%
24. La Prairie CAQ safe >99%
25. Berthier CAQ safe >99%
26. Saint-Jean CAQ safe >99%
27. Saint-Jérôme CAQ safe >99%
28. Mégantic CAQ safe >99%
29. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice CAQ safe >99%
30. Prévost CAQ safe >99%
31. Chambly CAQ safe >99%
32. Bertrand CAQ safe >99%
33. Pointe-aux-Trembles CAQ safe >99%
34. Papineau CAQ safe >99%
35. Terrebonne CAQ safe >99%
36. Argenteuil CAQ safe >99%
37. Richmond CAQ safe >99%
38. Abitibi-Est CAQ safe >99%
39. Dubuc CAQ safe >99%
40. Trois-Rivières CAQ safe >99%
41. Roberval CAQ safe >99%
42. Taillon CAQ safe >99%
43. Brome-Missisquoi CAQ safe >99%
44. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré CAQ safe >99%
45. Orford CAQ safe >99%
46. Chicoutimi CAQ safe >99%
47. Maskinongé CAQ safe >99%
48. Lac-Saint-Jean CAQ safe >99%
49. Saint-François CAQ safe >99%
50. Abitibi-Ouest CAQ safe >99%
51. Côte-du-Sud CAQ safe >99%
52. Labelle CAQ safe >99%
53. Bellechasse CAQ safe >99%
54. Montmorency CAQ safe >99%
55. Louis-Hébert CAQ safe >99%
56. Verchères CAQ safe >99%
57. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière CAQ safe >99%
58. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata CAQ safe >99%
59. Lévis CAQ safe >99%
60. Portneuf CAQ safe >99%
61. Gatineau CAQ safe >99%
62. Vanier-Les Rivières CAQ safe >99%
63. Charlesbourg CAQ safe >99%
64. Lotbinière-Frontenac CAQ likely 99%
65. La Peltrie CAQ likely 99%
66. Soulanges CAQ likely 99%
67. Jean-Talon CAQ likely 99%
68. Duplessis CAQ likely 98%
69. Sainte-Rose CAQ likely 97%
70. Chapleau CAQ likely 95%
71. Huntingdon CAQ likely 95%
72. Ungava CAQ likely 92%
73. Laval-des-Rapides CAQ leaning 88%
74. Châteauguay CAQ leaning 86%
75. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue CAQ leaning 86%
76. Hull CAQ leaning 85%
77. Beauce-Nord CAQ leaning 84%
78. Chauveau CAQ leaning 79%
79. Rimouski CAQ leaning 78%
80. Beauce-Sud CAQ leaning 76%
81. Jonquière CAQ leaning 72%
82. Îles-de-la-Madeleine CAQ leaning 71%
83. René-Lévesque Toss up PQ/CAQ 69%
84. Bourget Toss up CAQ/QS 69%
85. Verdun Toss up LIB/CAQ/QS 65%
86. Marie-Victorin Toss up PQ/CAQ/QS 63%
87. Vimont Toss up LIB/CAQ 62%
88. Mille-Îles Toss up LIB/CAQ 61%
89. Fabre Toss up LIB/CAQ 58%
90. Bonaventure Toss up PQ/CAQ 57%
91. Maurice-Richard Toss up CAQ/QS 55%
92. Anjou–Louis-Riel Toss up LIB/CAQ 51%
93. Vaudreuil Toss up LIB/CAQ 51%
94. Gaspé Toss up PQ/CAQ 50%
95. Laporte Toss up LIB/CAQ 45%
96. Joliette Toss up PQ/CAQ 45%
97. Jean-Lesage Toss up CAQ/QS 43%
98. La Pinière Toss up LIB/CAQ 40%
99. Marquette Toss up LIB/CAQ 36%
100. Bourassa-Sauvé LIB likely 8%
101. Marguerite-Bourgeoys LIB likely 7%
102. Sherbrooke QS likely 6%
103. Rosemont QS likely 4%
104. Taschereau QS likely 3%
105. LaFontaine LIB likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Arthabaska CAQ safe
2. Mirabel CAQ safe
3. L’Assomption CAQ safe
4. Rousseau CAQ safe
5. Drummond–Bois-Francs CAQ safe
6. Granby CAQ safe
7. Repentigny CAQ safe
8. Richelieu CAQ safe
9. Nicolet-Bécancour CAQ safe
10. Masson CAQ safe
11. Saint-Hyacinthe CAQ safe
12. Johnson CAQ safe
13. Les Plaines CAQ safe
14. Champlain CAQ safe
15. Blainville CAQ safe
16. Beauharnois CAQ safe
17. Deux-Montagnes CAQ safe
18. Sanguinet CAQ safe
19. Montarville CAQ safe
20. Iberville CAQ safe
21. Groulx CAQ safe
22. Vachon CAQ safe
23. Borduas CAQ safe
24. La Prairie CAQ safe
25. Berthier CAQ safe
26. Saint-Jean CAQ safe
27. Saint-Jérôme CAQ safe
28. Mégantic CAQ safe
29. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice CAQ safe
30. Prévost CAQ safe
31. Chambly CAQ safe
32. Bertrand CAQ safe
33. Pointe-aux-Trembles CAQ safe
34. Papineau CAQ safe
35. Terrebonne CAQ safe
36. Argenteuil CAQ safe
37. Richmond CAQ safe
38. Abitibi-Est CAQ safe
39. Dubuc CAQ safe
40. Trois-Rivières CAQ safe
41. Roberval CAQ safe
42. Taillon CAQ safe
43. Brome-Missisquoi CAQ safe
44. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré CAQ safe
45. Orford CAQ safe
46. Chicoutimi CAQ safe
47. Maskinongé CAQ safe
48. Lac-Saint-Jean CAQ safe
49. Saint-François CAQ safe
50. Abitibi-Ouest CAQ safe
51. Côte-du-Sud CAQ safe
52. Labelle CAQ safe
53. Bellechasse CAQ safe
54. Montmorency CAQ safe
55. Louis-Hébert CAQ safe
56. Verchères CAQ safe
57. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière CAQ safe
58. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata CAQ safe
59. Lévis CAQ safe
60. Portneuf CAQ safe
61. Gatineau CAQ safe
62. Vanier-Les Rivières CAQ safe
63. Charlesbourg CAQ safe
64. Lotbinière-Frontenac CAQ likely
65. La Peltrie CAQ likely
66. Soulanges CAQ likely
67. Jean-Talon CAQ likely
68. Duplessis CAQ likely
69. Sainte-Rose CAQ likely
70. Chapleau CAQ likely
71. Huntingdon CAQ likely
72. Ungava CAQ likely
73. Laval-des-Rapides CAQ leaning
74. Châteauguay CAQ leaning
75. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue CAQ leaning
76. Hull CAQ leaning
77. Beauce-Nord CAQ leaning
78. Chauveau CAQ leaning
79. Rimouski CAQ leaning
80. Beauce-Sud CAQ leaning
81. Jonquière CAQ leaning
82. Îles-de-la-Madeleine CAQ leaning
83. René-Lévesque Toss up PQ/CAQ
84. Bourget Toss up CAQ/QS
85. Verdun Toss up LIB/CAQ/QS
86. Marie-Victorin Toss up PQ/CAQ/QS
87. Vimont Toss up LIB/CAQ
88. Mille-Îles Toss up LIB/CAQ
89. Fabre Toss up LIB/CAQ
90. Bonaventure Toss up PQ/CAQ
91. Maurice-Richard Toss up CAQ/QS
92. Anjou–Louis-Riel Toss up LIB/CAQ
93. Vaudreuil Toss up LIB/CAQ
94. Gaspé Toss up PQ/CAQ
95. Laporte Toss up LIB/CAQ
96. Joliette Toss up PQ/CAQ
97. Jean-Lesage Toss up CAQ/QS
98. La Pinière Toss up LIB/CAQ
99. Marquette Toss up LIB/CAQ
100. Bourassa-Sauvé LIB likely
101. Marguerite-Bourgeoys LIB likely
102. Sherbrooke QS likely
103. Rosemont QS likely
104. Taschereau QS likely
105. LaFontaine LIB likely



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