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Last update: June 17, 2021
| Leader | François Legault |
| National popular vote in 2018 | 37.4% |
| Current vote projection | 46.5% ± 5.6% |
| Current number of MP's | 75 |
| Current seat projection | 96 ± 10 |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Coalition avenir Québec
| Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Granby |  |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 2. | Arthabaska | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 3. | L'Assomption | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 4. | Mirabel | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 5. | Drummond–Bois-Francs | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 6. | Rousseau | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 7. | Champlain | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 8. | Nicolet-Bécancour | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 9. | Saint-Hyacinthe | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 10. | Blainville | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 11. | Johnson | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 12. | Chambly | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 13. | Masson | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 14. | Repentigny | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 15. | Les Plaines | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 16. | Richelieu | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 17. | Borduas | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 18. | Deux-Montagnes | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 19. | Beauharnois | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 20. | Iberville |  |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 21. | Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 22. | Vachon | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 23. | Prévost | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 24. | La Prairie | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 25. | Sanguinet | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 26. | Lévis | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 27. | Montarville | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 28. | Abitibi-Est | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 29. | Saint-Jérôme | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 30. | Groulx | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 31. | Berthier | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 32. | Mégantic | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 33. | Terrebonne | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 34. | Laviolette-Saint-Maurice | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 35. | Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 36. | Bertrand | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 37. | Saint-Jean | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 38. | Côte-du-Sud | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 39. | Trois-Rivières | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 40. | Roberval | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 41. | Argenteuil | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 42. | Bellechasse | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 43. | Pointe-aux-Trembles | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 44. | Papineau | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 45. | Dubuc | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 46. | Maskinongé | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 47. | Verchères | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 48. | Richmond | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 49. | Brome-Missisquoi | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 50. | Vanier-Les Rivières | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 51. | Chicoutimi | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 52. | Taillon | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 53. | Charlesbourg | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 54. | Orford | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 55. | Saint-François | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 56. | Beauce-Nord | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 57. | Portneuf | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 58. | Louis-Hébert | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 59. | Lac-Saint-Jean | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 60. | Montmorency | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 61. | La Peltrie | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 62. | Lotbinière-Frontenac | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 63. | Labelle | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 64. | Beauce-Sud | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 65. | Chauveau | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 66. | Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 67. | Gatineau | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 68. | Marie-Victorin |  |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 69. | Jean-Talon | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 70. | Abitibi-Ouest | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 71. | Duplessis |  |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 72. | Bourget | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 73. | Sainte-Rose | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 74. | Soulanges | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 75. | Chapleau | |
CAQ likely | 99% |
| 76. | René-Lévesque | |
CAQ likely | 99% |
| 77. | Huntingdon | |
CAQ likely | 98% |
| 78. | Rimouski | |
CAQ likely | 98% |
| 79. | Ungava | |
CAQ likely | 97% |
| 80. | Laval-des-Rapides |  |
CAQ likely | 96% |
| 81. | Hull | |
CAQ likely | 96% |
| 82. | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue |  |
CAQ likely | 95% |
| 83. | Jonquière | |
CAQ likely | 95% |
| 84. | Châteauguay | |
CAQ likely | 95% |
| 85. | Bonaventure | |
CAQ likely | 94% |
| 86. | Gaspé | |
CAQ likely | 90% |
| 87. | Jean-Lesage | |
CAQ leaning | 87% |
| 88. | Fabre | |
CAQ leaning | 87% |
| 89. | Mille-Îles | |
CAQ leaning | 80% |
| 90. | Joliette | |
CAQ leaning | 77% |
| 91. | Anjou–Louis-Riel | |
CAQ leaning | 75% |
| 92. | Vimont | |
CAQ leaning | 73% |
| 93. | Verdun | |
CAQ leaning | 72% |
| 94. | Maurice-Richard | |
CAQ leaning | 70% |
| 95. | Vaudreuil | |
Toss up | 66% |
| 96. | Taschereau | |
Toss up | 59% |
| 97. | Sherbrooke | |
Toss up | 59% |
| 98. | Rosemont | |
Toss up | 52% |
| 99. | Laporte | |
Toss up | 51% |
| 100. | Marquette | |
Toss up | 47% |
| 101. | La Pinière | |
Toss up | 45% |
| 102. | Îles-de-la-Madeleine | |
Toss up | 36% |
| 103. | Marguerite-Bourgeoys | |
LIB leaning | 20% |
| 104. | Bourassa-Sauvé | |
LIB leaning | 11% |
| 105. | LaFontaine | |
LIB likely | 5% |
| 106. | Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | |
LIB likely | 4% |
| 107. | Pontiac | |
LIB likely | 3% |
| 108. | Viau | |
LIB likely | 2% |
| 109. | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | |
QS likely | <1% |
| 110. | Chomedey | |
LIB likely | <1% |
| Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Granby | CAQ safe |
| 2. | Arthabaska | CAQ safe |
| 3. | L'Assomption | CAQ safe |
| 4. | Mirabel | CAQ safe |
| 5. | Drummond–Bois-Francs | CAQ safe |
| 6. | Rousseau | CAQ safe |
| 7. | Champlain | CAQ safe |
| 8. | Nicolet-Bécancour | CAQ safe |
| 9. | Saint-Hyacinthe | CAQ safe |
| 10. | Blainville | CAQ safe |
| 11. | Johnson | CAQ safe |
| 12. | Chambly | CAQ safe |
| 13. | Masson | CAQ safe |
| 14. | Repentigny | CAQ safe |
| 15. | Les Plaines | CAQ safe |
| 16. | Richelieu | CAQ safe |
| 17. | Borduas | CAQ safe |
| 18. | Deux-Montagnes | CAQ safe |
| 19. | Beauharnois | CAQ safe |
| 20. | Iberville | CAQ safe |
| 21. | Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | CAQ safe |
| 22. | Vachon | CAQ safe |
| 23. | Prévost | CAQ safe |
| 24. | La Prairie | CAQ safe |
| 25. | Sanguinet | CAQ safe |
| 26. | Lévis | CAQ safe |
| 27. | Montarville | CAQ safe |
| 28. | Abitibi-Est | CAQ safe |
| 29. | Saint-Jérôme | CAQ safe |
| 30. | Groulx | CAQ safe |
| 31. | Berthier | CAQ safe |
| 32. | Mégantic | CAQ safe |
| 33. | Terrebonne | CAQ safe |
| 34. | Laviolette-Saint-Maurice | CAQ safe |
| 35. | Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré | CAQ safe |
| 36. | Bertrand | CAQ safe |
| 37. | Saint-Jean | CAQ safe |
| 38. | Côte-du-Sud | CAQ safe |
| 39. | Trois-Rivières | CAQ safe |
| 40. | Roberval | CAQ safe |
| 41. | Argenteuil | CAQ safe |
| 42. | Bellechasse | CAQ safe |
| 43. | Pointe-aux-Trembles | CAQ safe |
| 44. | Papineau | CAQ safe |
| 45. | Dubuc | CAQ safe |
| 46. | Maskinongé | CAQ safe |
| 47. | Verchères | CAQ safe |
| 48. | Richmond | CAQ safe |
| 49. | Brome-Missisquoi | CAQ safe |
| 50. | Vanier-Les Rivières | CAQ safe |
| 51. | Chicoutimi | CAQ safe |
| 52. | Taillon | CAQ safe |
| 53. | Charlesbourg | CAQ safe |
| 54. | Orford | CAQ safe |
| 55. | Saint-François | CAQ safe |
| 56. | Beauce-Nord | CAQ safe |
| 57. | Portneuf | CAQ safe |
| 58. | Louis-Hébert | CAQ safe |
| 59. | Lac-Saint-Jean | CAQ safe |
| 60. | Montmorency | CAQ safe |
| 61. | La Peltrie | CAQ safe |
| 62. | Lotbinière-Frontenac | CAQ safe |
| 63. | Labelle | CAQ safe |
| 64. | Beauce-Sud | CAQ safe |
| 65. | Chauveau | CAQ safe |
| 66. | Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata | CAQ safe |
| 67. | Gatineau | CAQ safe |
| 68. | Marie-Victorin | CAQ safe |
| 69. | Jean-Talon | CAQ safe |
| 70. | Abitibi-Ouest | CAQ safe |
| 71. | Duplessis | CAQ safe |
| 72. | Bourget | CAQ safe |
| 73. | Sainte-Rose | CAQ safe |
| 74. | Soulanges | CAQ safe |
| 75. | Chapleau | CAQ likely |
| 76. | René-Lévesque | CAQ likely |
| 77. | Huntingdon | CAQ likely |
| 78. | Rimouski | CAQ likely |
| 79. | Ungava | CAQ likely |
| 80. | Laval-des-Rapides | CAQ likely |
| 81. | Hull | CAQ likely |
| 82. | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue | CAQ likely |
| 83. | Jonquière | CAQ likely |
| 84. | Châteauguay | CAQ likely |
| 85. | Bonaventure | CAQ likely |
| 86. | Gaspé | CAQ likely |
| 87. | Jean-Lesage | CAQ leaning |
| 88. | Fabre | CAQ leaning |
| 89. | Mille-Îles | CAQ leaning |
| 90. | Joliette | CAQ leaning |
| 91. | Anjou–Louis-Riel | CAQ leaning |
| 92. | Vimont | CAQ leaning |
| 93. | Verdun | CAQ leaning |
| 94. | Maurice-Richard | CAQ leaning |
| 95. | Vaudreuil | Toss up |
| 96. | Taschereau | Toss up |
| 97. | Sherbrooke | Toss up |
| 98. | Rosemont | Toss up |
| 99. | Laporte | Toss up |
| 100. | Marquette | Toss up |
| 101. | La Pinière | Toss up |
| 102. | Îles-de-la-Madeleine | Toss up |
| 103. | Marguerite-Bourgeoys | LIB leaning |
| 104. | Bourassa-Sauvé | LIB leaning |
| 105. | LaFontaine | LIB likely |
| 106. | Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | LIB likely |
| 107. | Pontiac | LIB likely |
| 108. | Viau | LIB likely |
| 109. | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | QS likely |
| 110. | Chomedey | LIB likely |