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Last update: February 11, 2021
| Leader | François Legault |
| National popular vote in 2018 | 37.4% |
| Current vote projection | 46.8% ± 5.6% |
| Current number of MP's | 75 |
| Current seat projection | 90 ± 12 |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Coalition avenir Québec
| Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Beauce-Nord | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 2. | Granby | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 3. | Arthabaska | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 4. | Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 5. | L'Assomption | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 6. | Beauce-Sud | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 7. | Mirabel | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 8. | Lévis | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 9. | Drummond–Bois-Francs | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 10. | La Peltrie | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 11. | Champlain | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 12. | Portneuf | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 13. | Saint-Hyacinthe | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 14. | Blainville | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 15. | Nicolet-Bécancour | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 16. | Johnson | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 17. | Côte-du-Sud | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 18. | Rousseau | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 19. | Chambly | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 20. | Lotbinière-Frontenac | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 21. | Repentigny | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 22. | Masson | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 23. | Deux-Montagnes | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 24. | Borduas | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 25. | Bellechasse | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 26. | Les Plaines | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 27. | Vachon | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 28. | Richelieu | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 29. | Beauharnois | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 30. | Iberville | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 31. | Montmorency | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 32. | Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 33. | La Prairie | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 34. | Charlesbourg | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 35. | Montarville | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 36. | Sanguinet | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 37. | Groulx | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 38. | Prévost | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 39. | Mégantic | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 40. | Louis-Hébert | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 41. | Laviolette-Saint-Maurice | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 42. | Saint-Jérôme | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 43. | Vanier-Les Rivières | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 44. | Terrebonne | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 45. | Abitibi-Est | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 46. | Roberval | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 47. | Trois-Rivières | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 48. | Saint-Jean | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 49. | Bertrand | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 50. | Chauveau | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 51. | Papineau | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 52. | Argenteuil | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 53. | Maskinongé | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 54. | Dubuc | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 55. | Richmond | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 56. | Brome-Missisquoi | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 57. | Taillon | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 58. | Chicoutimi | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 59. | Saint-François | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 60. | Berthier | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 61. | Orford | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 62. | Pointe-aux-Trembles | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 63. | Bourget | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 64. | Verchères | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 65. | Lac-Saint-Jean | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 66. | Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata |  |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 67. | Gatineau | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 68. | Labelle | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 69. | Sainte-Rose | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 70. | Marie-Victorin | |
CAQ likely | 99% |
| 71. | Soulanges | |
CAQ likely | 99% |
| 72. | Abitibi-Ouest | |
CAQ likely | 98% |
| 73. | Duplessis |  |
CAQ likely | 98% |
| 74. | Huntingdon | |
CAQ likely | 97% |
| 75. | Chapleau | |
CAQ likely | 97% |
| 76. | Jean-Talon | |
CAQ likely | 95% |
| 77. | Ungava | |
CAQ likely | 94% |
| 78. | Laval-des-Rapides |  |
CAQ likely | 93% |
| 79. | Châteauguay | |
CAQ likely | 91% |
| 80. | Jean-Lesage |  |
CAQ likely | 90% |
| 81. | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue | |
CAQ leaning | 89% |
| 82. | Fabre | |
CAQ leaning | 82% |
| 83. | René-Lévesque | |
CAQ leaning | 80% |
| 84. | Mille-Îles | |
CAQ leaning | 74% |
| 85. | Vimont | |
Toss up | 66% |
| 86. | Rimouski | |
Toss up | 64% |
| 87. | Hull | |
Toss up | 60% |
| 88. | Jonquière | |
Toss up | 60% |
| 89. | Gaspé | |
Toss up | 55% |
| 90. | Bonaventure | |
Toss up | 53% |
| 91. | Joliette | |
Toss up | 47% |
| 92. | Sherbrooke | |
Toss up | 43% |
| 93. | Laporte | |
Toss up | 41% |
| 94. | Anjou–Louis-Riel | |
Toss up | 39% |
| 95. | Maurice-Richard | |
Toss up | 32% |
| 96. | Vaudreuil | |
Toss up | 30% |
| 97. | Verdun | |
LIB leaning | 25% |
| 98. | Taschereau | |
QS leaning | 22% |
| 99. | Îles-de-la-Madeleine | |
Toss up | 19% |
| 100. | Rosemont | |
QS leaning | 18% |
| 101. | Marquette | |
LIB leaning | 15% |
| 102. | La Pinière | |
LIB leaning | 13% |
| 103. | Marguerite-Bourgeoys | |
LIB leaning | 12% |
| 104. | Bourassa-Sauvé | |
LIB likely | 10% |
| 105. | LaFontaine | |
LIB likely | 4% |
| 106. | Pontiac | |
LIB likely | 3% |
| 107. | Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | |
LIB likely | 2% |
| 108. | Viau | |
LIB likely | 1% |
| 109. | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | |
QS likely | <1% |
| 110. | Chomedey | |
LIB likely | <1% |
| Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Beauce-Nord | CAQ safe |
| 2. | Granby | CAQ safe |
| 3. | Arthabaska | CAQ safe |
| 4. | Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | CAQ safe |
| 5. | L'Assomption | CAQ safe |
| 6. | Beauce-Sud | CAQ safe |
| 7. | Mirabel | CAQ safe |
| 8. | Lévis | CAQ safe |
| 9. | Drummond–Bois-Francs | CAQ safe |
| 10. | La Peltrie | CAQ safe |
| 11. | Champlain | CAQ safe |
| 12. | Portneuf | CAQ safe |
| 13. | Saint-Hyacinthe | CAQ safe |
| 14. | Blainville | CAQ safe |
| 15. | Nicolet-Bécancour | CAQ safe |
| 16. | Johnson | CAQ safe |
| 17. | Côte-du-Sud | CAQ safe |
| 18. | Rousseau | CAQ safe |
| 19. | Chambly | CAQ safe |
| 20. | Lotbinière-Frontenac | CAQ safe |
| 21. | Repentigny | CAQ safe |
| 22. | Masson | CAQ safe |
| 23. | Deux-Montagnes | CAQ safe |
| 24. | Borduas | CAQ safe |
| 25. | Bellechasse | CAQ safe |
| 26. | Les Plaines | CAQ safe |
| 27. | Vachon | CAQ safe |
| 28. | Richelieu | CAQ safe |
| 29. | Beauharnois | CAQ safe |
| 30. | Iberville | CAQ safe |
| 31. | Montmorency | CAQ safe |
| 32. | Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré | CAQ safe |
| 33. | La Prairie | CAQ safe |
| 34. | Charlesbourg | CAQ safe |
| 35. | Montarville | CAQ safe |
| 36. | Sanguinet | CAQ safe |
| 37. | Groulx | CAQ safe |
| 38. | Prévost | CAQ safe |
| 39. | Mégantic | CAQ safe |
| 40. | Louis-Hébert | CAQ safe |
| 41. | Laviolette-Saint-Maurice | CAQ safe |
| 42. | Saint-Jérôme | CAQ safe |
| 43. | Vanier-Les Rivières | CAQ safe |
| 44. | Terrebonne | CAQ safe |
| 45. | Abitibi-Est | CAQ safe |
| 46. | Roberval | CAQ safe |
| 47. | Trois-Rivières | CAQ safe |
| 48. | Saint-Jean | CAQ safe |
| 49. | Bertrand | CAQ safe |
| 50. | Chauveau | CAQ safe |
| 51. | Papineau | CAQ safe |
| 52. | Argenteuil | CAQ safe |
| 53. | Maskinongé | CAQ safe |
| 54. | Dubuc | CAQ safe |
| 55. | Richmond | CAQ safe |
| 56. | Brome-Missisquoi | CAQ safe |
| 57. | Taillon | CAQ safe |
| 58. | Chicoutimi | CAQ safe |
| 59. | Saint-François | CAQ safe |
| 60. | Berthier | CAQ safe |
| 61. | Orford | CAQ safe |
| 62. | Pointe-aux-Trembles | CAQ safe |
| 63. | Bourget | CAQ safe |
| 64. | Verchères | CAQ safe |
| 65. | Lac-Saint-Jean | CAQ safe |
| 66. | Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata | CAQ safe |
| 67. | Gatineau | CAQ safe |
| 68. | Labelle | CAQ safe |
| 69. | Sainte-Rose | CAQ safe |
| 70. | Marie-Victorin | CAQ likely |
| 71. | Soulanges | CAQ likely |
| 72. | Abitibi-Ouest | CAQ likely |
| 73. | Duplessis | CAQ likely |
| 74. | Huntingdon | CAQ likely |
| 75. | Chapleau | CAQ likely |
| 76. | Jean-Talon | CAQ likely |
| 77. | Ungava | CAQ likely |
| 78. | Laval-des-Rapides | CAQ likely |
| 79. | Châteauguay | CAQ likely |
| 80. | Jean-Lesage | CAQ likely |
| 81. | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue | CAQ leaning |
| 82. | Fabre | CAQ leaning |
| 83. | René-Lévesque | CAQ leaning |
| 84. | Mille-Îles | CAQ leaning |
| 85. | Vimont | Toss up |
| 86. | Rimouski | Toss up |
| 87. | Hull | Toss up |
| 88. | Jonquière | Toss up |
| 89. | Gaspé | Toss up |
| 90. | Bonaventure | Toss up |
| 91. | Joliette | Toss up |
| 92. | Sherbrooke | Toss up |
| 93. | Laporte | Toss up |
| 94. | Anjou–Louis-Riel | Toss up |
| 95. | Maurice-Richard | Toss up |
| 96. | Vaudreuil | Toss up |
| 97. | Verdun | LIB leaning |
| 98. | Taschereau | QS leaning |
| 99. | Îles-de-la-Madeleine | Toss up |
| 100. | Rosemont | QS leaning |
| 101. | Marquette | LIB leaning |
| 102. | La Pinière | LIB leaning |
| 103. | Marguerite-Bourgeoys | LIB leaning |
| 104. | Bourassa-Sauvé | LIB likely |
| 105. | LaFontaine | LIB likely |
| 106. | Pontiac | LIB likely |
| 107. | Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | LIB likely |
| 108. | Viau | LIB likely |
| 109. | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | QS likely |
| 110. | Chomedey | LIB likely |