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Quebec

Coalition avenir Québec





Last update: November 15, 2024

LeaderFrançois Legault
National popular vote in 202241.0%
Current vote projection21.8% ± 2.8%
Current number of MNA's86
Current seat projection7 [0-22]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% Vote efficiency | CAQ 338Canada ©2023 4.3 seat/% 7 [0-22] 22% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | November 15, 2024

15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 19.0% ▼ 21.8% ± 2.8% ▼ Max. 24.6% ▼ Probabilities % CAQ

Seat projection | November 15, 2024

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 7 ▼ Max. 22 ▼ Probabilities % CAQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Coalition avenir Québec


Last update: November 15, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Papineau Likely CAQ hold 93%
2. L’Assomption Leaning CAQ hold 73%
3. La Prairie Toss up PQ/CAQ 64%
4. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 61%
5. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 52%
6. Johnson Toss up PQ/CAQ 50%
7. Richmond Toss up PQ/CAQ 48%
8. Arthabaska Toss up PQ/CAQ 47%
9. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ 34%
10. Chauveau Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 33%
11. Soulanges Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 30%
12. Lotbinière-Frontenac Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 27%
13. Lévis Leaning PQ gain 23%
14. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CAQ 22%
15. Groulx Leaning PQ gain 21%
16. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 19%
17. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 19%
18. Blainville Leaning PQ gain 18%
19. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 17%
20. Trois-Rivières Leaning PQ gain 16%
21. Bellechasse Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 16%
22. Châteauguay Leaning LIB gain 14%
23. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 14%
24. Granby Leaning PQ gain 13%
25. Portneuf Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 11%
26. Beauce-Sud PCQ likely gain 10%
27. Mirabel Likely PQ gain 9%
28. Saint-François Leaning PQ gain 9%
29. Nicolet-Bécancour Likely PQ gain 9%
30. Maskinongé Likely PQ gain 7%
31. Drummond–Bois-Francs Likely PQ gain 7%
32. Montarville Likely PQ gain 7%
33. Abitibi-Est Likely PQ gain 7%
34. Beauce-Nord PCQ likely gain 6%
35. Côte-du-Sud Likely PQ gain 6%
36. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Likely PQ gain 5%
37. Saint-Hyacinthe Likely PQ gain 4%
38. Vanier-Les Rivières Likely PQ gain 4%
39. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Leaning PQ gain 3%
40. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Likely PQ gain 3%
41. Roberval Likely PQ gain 3%
42. Rousseau Likely PQ gain 2%
43. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 2%
44. Chicoutimi Likely PQ gain 2%
45. Louis-Hébert Likely PQ gain 2%
46. Sainte-Rose Likely LIB gain 2%
47. La Peltrie PCQ leaning gain 1%
48. Jonquière Likely PQ gain 1%
49. Beauharnois Likely PQ gain 1%