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Coalition avenir Québec

Latest update: September 30, 2026
LeaderChristine Fréchette
National popular vote in 202241.0%
Current vote projection18.2% ± 2.9%
Current number of MNA's79
Current seat projection0 [0-6]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | September 30, 2026 15 10 5 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% Vote efficiency | CAQ 338Canada ©2026 1.3 seat/% [0-6] 18% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | September 30, 2026

12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 15.4% ▼ 18.2% ± 2.9% ▼ Max. 21.1% ▼ Probabilities % CAQ September 30, 2026

Seat projection | September 30, 2026

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 ▼ Max. 6 ▼ Probabilities % CAQ September 30, 2026
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The Road to 64 Seats | Coalition avenir Québec


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Borduas Leaning PQ 1 BORD 2. Granby Leaning PQ 2 GRBY 3. Daniel-Johnson Leaning PQ 3 DAJO 4. Richmond Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 4 RCHM 5. Papineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 5 PAPI 6. Iberville Likely PQ 6 IBER 7. Montarville Likely PQ 7 MTRV 8. Trois-Rivières Likely PQ 8 TRIV 9. La Prairie Likely PQ 9 LAPR 10. Chambly Likely PQ 10 CHBY 11. Lévis PCQ likely 11 LEVI 12. Chapleau Leaning LIB 12 CHAP 13. Groulx Likely PQ 13 GROU 14. Louis-Hébert Toss up PQ/CPQ 14 LHEB 15. Mirabel Likely PQ 15 MIRA 16. Ungava Leaning PQ 16 UNGA 17. L’Assomption Likely PQ 17 LASS 18. Brome-Missisquoi Leaning LIB 18 BROM 19. Repentigny Likely PQ 19 REPE 20. Beauharnois Likely PQ 20 BEAU 21. Sainte-Rose Likely LIB 21 STRO 22. Rousseau Likely PQ 22 ROUS 23. René-Lévesque Likely PQ 23 RENE 24. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ 24 LVSM 25. Nicolet-Bécancour Toss up PQ/CPQ 25 NICO 26. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ 26 HUNT 27. Duplessis Likely PQ 27 DUPL 28. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Toss up PQ/CPQ 28 MLGL 29. Maskinongé Likely PQ 29 MASK 30. Blainville Likely PQ 30 BLAI 31. Masson Likely PQ 31 MASS 32. Les Plaines Likely PQ 32 LPLA 33. Abitibi-Ouest Likely PQ 33 ABIO 34. Terrebonne Likely PQ 34 TERR 35. Champlain Toss up PQ/CPQ 35 CHPN 36. Orford Likely LIB 36 ORFO 37. Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ 37 ABIE 38. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ likely 38 CHCH 39. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CPQ 39 MEGA 40. Bellefeuille Likely PQ 40 BELF 41. Vanier-Les Rivières PCQ likely 41 VALR 42. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ 42 DMON 43. Soulanges Likely LIB 43 SOUL 44. Charlesbourg PCQ leaning 44 CHAR 45. Laval-des-Rapides Likely LIB 45 LVDR 46. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely PQ 46 ROUY 47. Montmorency PCQ likely 47 MOMO 48. Verchères Safe PQ 48 VERC 49. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe PQ 49 STHY 50. Vimont-Auteuil Safe LIB 50 VIMO 51. Drummond–Bois-Francs Toss up PQ/CPQ 51 DRUM 52. Sanguinet Safe PQ 52 SANG 53. Côte-du-Sud PCQ leaning 53 CÔDS 54. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Safe PQ 54 RDLT 55. Saint-François Likely PQ 55 STFR 56. Richelieu Safe PQ 56 RCHL 57. Dubuc Safe PQ 57 DUBU 58. Jonquière Safe PQ 58 JONQ 59. Berthier Safe PQ 59 BRTH 60. Joliette Safe PQ 60 JOLI 61. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ 61 STJR 62. Labelle Safe PQ 62 LABL 63. Bertrand Safe PQ 63 BERT 64. Roberval Safe PQ 64 ROBV 65. Saint-Jean Safe PQ 65 STJN 66. Vachon Safe PQ 66 VACH 67. Portneuf PCQ safe 67 PORT 68. Chauveau PCQ safe 68 CHAU 69. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Likely PQ 69 CXCB 70. Beauce-Sud PCQ safe 70 BEAS 71. Taillon Safe PQ 71 TAIL 72. Prévost Safe PQ 72 PREV 73. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ 73 MVIC 74. Rimouski Safe PQ 74 RIMO 75. Fabre Safe LIB 75 FABR 76. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ safe 76 LOTF 77. Bellechasse PCQ safe 77 BELL 78. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 78 PATR 79. Mille-Îles Safe LIB 79 MILI 80. Châteauguay Likely LIB 80 CHAT 81. La Peltrie PCQ safe 81 LAPE 82. Chicoutimi Safe PQ 82 CHIC 83. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 83 LAPO 84. Gatineau Likely LIB 84 GATI 85. Argenteuil Likely PQ 85 ARGE 86. Gaspé Safe PQ 86 GASP 87. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 87 LASJ 88. Bonaventure Safe PQ 88 BONA 89. Beauce-Nord PCQ safe 89 BEAN 90. Anjou–Louis-Riel Safe LIB 90 ANLR 91. Hull Safe LIB 91 HULL 92. Arthabaska-L’Érable Toss up PQ/CPQ 92 ARTH 93. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 93 VAUD 94. Sherbrooke Toss up PQ/QS 94 SHER 95. La Pinière Safe LIB 95 LAPI 96. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 96 IDLM 97. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 97 MAMA 98. Jean-Talon Likely PQ 98 JTAL 99. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 99 CAML 100. Maurice-Richard Toss up LIB/PQ 100 MAUR 101. Chomedey Safe LIB 101 CHOM 102. Jean-Lesage QS leaning 102 JLES 103. Pontiac Safe LIB 103 PONT 104. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 104 ROSE 105. Taschereau QS leaning 105 TASH 106. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 106 MROU 107. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Toss up PQ/QS 107 HOMA 108. Verdun Leaning LIB 108 VERD 109. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 109 STLR 110. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely 110 SMSJ 111. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 111 JMVI 112. Gouin QS safe 112 GOUI 113. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Toss up LIB/QS 113 SHSA 114. LaFontaine Safe LIB 114 LAFO 115. Marquette Safe LIB 115 MARQ 116. Acadie Safe LIB 116 ACAD 117. Viau Likely LIB 117 VIAU 118. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 118 BOUS 119. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 119 MARG 120. Mercier QS safe 120 MERC 121. Laurier-Dorion Toss up LIB/QS 121 LAUD 122. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 122 WSTL 123. Nelligan Safe LIB 123 NELL 124. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 124 DAMC 125. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 125 BALD 126. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 126 JACA 127. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 127 NODG 338Canada Quebec projection Updated September 30, 2026
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Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Borduas
Simon Jolin-Barrette
 CA Leaning PQ
2.
Granby
François Bonnardel
 CA Leaning PQ
3.
Daniel-Johnson
André Lamontagne
 CA Leaning PQ
4.
Richmond
André Bachand
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
5.
Papineau
Mathieu Lacombe
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
6.
Iberville
Audrey Bogemans
 CA Likely PQ
7.
Montarville
Nathalie Roy
 CA Likely PQ
8.
Trois-Rivières
Jean Boulet
 CA Likely PQ
9.
La Prairie
Christian Dubé
 I Likely PQ
10.
Chambly
Jean-François Roberge
 CA Likely PQ
11.
Lévis
Bernard Drainville
 CA PCQ likely
12.
Chapleau
Mathieu Lévesque
 CA Leaning LIB
13.
Groulx
Eric Girard
 CA Likely PQ
14.
Louis-Hébert
Geneviève Guilbault
 CA Toss up PQ/CPQ
15.
Mirabel
Sylvie D’Amours
 CA Likely PQ
16.
Ungava
Denis Lamothe
 CA Leaning PQ
17.
L’Assomption
François Legault
 CA Likely PQ
18.
Brome-Missisquoi
Isabelle Charest
 CA Leaning LIB
19.
Repentigny
Pascale Déry
 CA Likely PQ
20.
Beauharnois
Claude Reid
 CA Likely PQ
21.
Sainte-Rose
Christopher Skeete
 CA Likely LIB
22.
Rousseau
Louis-Charles Thouin
 CA Likely PQ
23.
René-Lévesque
Yves Montigny
 CA Likely PQ
24.
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice
Marie-Louise Tardif
 CA Leaning PQ
25.
Nicolet-Bécancour
Donald Martel
 CA Toss up PQ/CPQ
26.
Huntingdon
Carole Mallette
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ
27.
Duplessis
Kateri Champagne Jourdain
 CA Likely PQ
28.
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie
Vacant
 Toss up PQ/CPQ
29.
Maskinongé
Simon Allaire
 CA Likely PQ
30.
Blainville
Mario Laframboise
 CA Likely PQ
31.
Masson
Mathieu Lemay
 CA Likely PQ
32.
Les Plaines
Lucie Lecours
 CA Likely PQ
33.
Abitibi-Ouest
Suzanne Blais
 CA Likely PQ
34.
Terrebonne
Catherine Gentilcore
 PQ Likely PQ
35.
Champlain
Sonia LeBel
 CA Toss up PQ/CPQ
36.
Orford
Gilles Bélanger
 I Likely LIB
37.
Abitibi-Est
Pierre Dufour
 I Leaning PQ
38.
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Martine Biron
 CA PCQ likely
39.
Mégantic
François Jacques
 CA Toss up PQ/CPQ
40.
Bellefeuille
Vacant
 Likely PQ
41.
Vanier-Les Rivières
Mario Asselin
 CA PCQ likely
42.
Deux-Montagnes
Benoit Charette
 CA Likely PQ
43.
Soulanges
Marilyne Picard
 CA Likely LIB
44.
Charlesbourg
Jonatan Julien
 CA PCQ leaning
45.
Laval-des-Rapides
Céline Haytayan
 CA Likely LIB
46.
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue
Daniel Bernard
 CA Likely PQ
47.
Montmorency
Jean-François Simard
 CA PCQ likely
48.
Verchères
Suzanne Roy
 CA Safe PQ
49.
Saint-Hyacinthe
Chantal Soucy
 CA Safe PQ
50.
Vimont-Auteuil
Valérie Schmaltz
 CA Safe LIB
51.
Drummond–Bois-Francs
Sébastien Schneeberger
 CA Toss up PQ/CPQ
52.
Sanguinet
Christine Fréchette
 CA Safe PQ
53.
Côte-du-Sud
Mathieu Rivest
 CA PCQ leaning
54.
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques
Amélie Dionne
 CA Safe PQ
55.
Saint-François
Geneviève Hébert
 CA Likely PQ