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Last update: January 20, 2022
| Leader | François Legault |
| National popular vote in 2018 | 37.4% |
| Current vote projection | 40.6% ± 5.3% |
| Current number of MNA's | 75 |
| Current seat projection | 94 [75-103] |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Coalition avenir Québec
| Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Arthabaska |  |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 2. | Mirabel | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 3. | L’Assomption | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 4. | Rousseau | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 5. | Drummond–Bois-Francs | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 6. | Granby | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 7. | Repentigny | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 8. | Richelieu | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 9. | Nicolet-Bécancour | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 10. | Masson | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 11. | Saint-Hyacinthe | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 12. | Johnson | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 13. | Les Plaines | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 14. | Champlain | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 15. | Blainville | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 16. | Beauharnois | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 17. | Deux-Montagnes | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 18. | Sanguinet | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 19. | Montarville | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 20. | Iberville |  |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 21. | Groulx | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 22. | Vachon | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 23. | Borduas | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 24. | La Prairie | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 25. | Berthier | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 26. | Saint-Jean | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 27. | Saint-Jérôme | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 28. | Mégantic | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 29. | Laviolette-Saint-Maurice | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 30. | Prévost | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 31. | Chambly | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 32. | Bertrand | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 33. | Pointe-aux-Trembles | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 34. | Papineau | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 35. | Terrebonne | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 36. | Argenteuil | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 37. | Richmond | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 38. | Abitibi-Est | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 39. | Dubuc | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 40. | Trois-Rivières | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 41. | Roberval | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 42. | Taillon | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 43. | Brome-Missisquoi | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 44. | Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 45. | Orford | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 46. | Chicoutimi | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 47. | Maskinongé | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 48. | Lac-Saint-Jean | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 49. | Saint-François | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 50. | Abitibi-Ouest | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 51. | Côte-du-Sud | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 52. | Labelle | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 53. | Bellechasse | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 54. | Montmorency | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 55. | Louis-Hébert | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 56. | Verchères | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 57. | Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 58. | Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 59. | Lévis | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 60. | Portneuf | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 61. | Gatineau | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 62. | Vanier-Les Rivières | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 63. | Charlesbourg | |
CAQ safe | >99% |
| 64. | Lotbinière-Frontenac | |
CAQ likely | 99% |
| 65. | La Peltrie | |
CAQ likely | 99% |
| 66. | Soulanges | |
CAQ likely | 99% |
| 67. | Jean-Talon | |
CAQ likely | 99% |
| 68. | Duplessis |  |
CAQ likely | 98% |
| 69. | Sainte-Rose | |
CAQ likely | 97% |
| 70. | Chapleau | |
CAQ likely | 95% |
| 71. | Huntingdon | |
CAQ likely | 95% |
| 72. | Ungava | |
CAQ likely | 92% |
| 73. | Laval-des-Rapides |  |
CAQ leaning | 88% |
| 74. | Châteauguay | |
CAQ leaning | 86% |
| 75. | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue |  |
CAQ leaning | 86% |
| 76. | Hull | |
CAQ leaning | 85% |
| 77. | Beauce-Nord | |
CAQ leaning | 84% |
| 78. | Chauveau | |
CAQ leaning | 79% |
| 79. | Rimouski |  |
CAQ leaning | 78% |
| 80. | Beauce-Sud | |
CAQ leaning | 76% |
| 81. | Jonquière | |
CAQ leaning | 72% |
| 82. | Îles-de-la-Madeleine | |
CAQ leaning | 71% |
| 83. | René-Lévesque | |
Toss up PQ/CAQ | 69% |
| 84. | Bourget | |
Toss up CAQ/QS | 69% |
| 85. | Verdun | |
Toss up LIB/CAQ/QS | 65% |
| 86. | Marie-Victorin |  |
Toss up PQ/CAQ/QS | 63% |
| 87. | Vimont | |
Toss up LIB/CAQ | 62% |
| 88. | Mille-Îles | |
Toss up LIB/CAQ | 61% |
| 89. | Fabre | |
Toss up LIB/CAQ | 58% |
| 90. | Bonaventure | |
Toss up PQ/CAQ | 57% |
| 91. | Maurice-Richard | |
Toss up CAQ/QS | 55% |
| 92. | Anjou–Louis-Riel | |
Toss up LIB/CAQ | 51% |
| 93. | Vaudreuil | |
Toss up LIB/CAQ | 51% |
| 94. | Gaspé | |
Toss up PQ/CAQ | 50% |
| 95. | Laporte | |
Toss up LIB/CAQ | 45% |
| 96. | Joliette | |
Toss up PQ/CAQ | 45% |
| 97. | Jean-Lesage | |
Toss up CAQ/QS | 43% |
| 98. | La Pinière | |
Toss up LIB/CAQ | 40% |
| 99. | Marquette | |
Toss up LIB/CAQ | 36% |
| 100. | Bourassa-Sauvé | |
LIB likely | 8% |
| 101. | Marguerite-Bourgeoys | |
LIB likely | 7% |
| 102. | Sherbrooke | |
QS likely | 6% |
| 103. | Rosemont | |
QS likely | 4% |
| 104. | Taschereau | |
QS likely | 3% |
| 105. | LaFontaine | |
LIB likely | 1% |
| Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Arthabaska | CAQ safe |
| 2. | Mirabel | CAQ safe |
| 3. | L’Assomption | CAQ safe |
| 4. | Rousseau | CAQ safe |
| 5. | Drummond–Bois-Francs | CAQ safe |
| 6. | Granby | CAQ safe |
| 7. | Repentigny | CAQ safe |
| 8. | Richelieu | CAQ safe |
| 9. | Nicolet-Bécancour | CAQ safe |
| 10. | Masson | CAQ safe |
| 11. | Saint-Hyacinthe | CAQ safe |
| 12. | Johnson | CAQ safe |
| 13. | Les Plaines | CAQ safe |
| 14. | Champlain | CAQ safe |
| 15. | Blainville | CAQ safe |
| 16. | Beauharnois | CAQ safe |
| 17. | Deux-Montagnes | CAQ safe |
| 18. | Sanguinet | CAQ safe |
| 19. | Montarville | CAQ safe |
| 20. | Iberville | CAQ safe |
| 21. | Groulx | CAQ safe |
| 22. | Vachon | CAQ safe |
| 23. | Borduas | CAQ safe |
| 24. | La Prairie | CAQ safe |
| 25. | Berthier | CAQ safe |
| 26. | Saint-Jean | CAQ safe |
| 27. | Saint-Jérôme | CAQ safe |
| 28. | Mégantic | CAQ safe |
| 29. | Laviolette-Saint-Maurice | CAQ safe |
| 30. | Prévost | CAQ safe |
| 31. | Chambly | CAQ safe |
| 32. | Bertrand | CAQ safe |
| 33. | Pointe-aux-Trembles | CAQ safe |
| 34. | Papineau | CAQ safe |
| 35. | Terrebonne | CAQ safe |
| 36. | Argenteuil | CAQ safe |
| 37. | Richmond | CAQ safe |
| 38. | Abitibi-Est | CAQ safe |
| 39. | Dubuc | CAQ safe |
| 40. | Trois-Rivières | CAQ safe |
| 41. | Roberval | CAQ safe |
| 42. | Taillon | CAQ safe |
| 43. | Brome-Missisquoi | CAQ safe |
| 44. | Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré | CAQ safe |
| 45. | Orford | CAQ safe |
| 46. | Chicoutimi | CAQ safe |
| 47. | Maskinongé | CAQ safe |
| 48. | Lac-Saint-Jean | CAQ safe |
| 49. | Saint-François | CAQ safe |
| 50. | Abitibi-Ouest | CAQ safe |
| 51. | Côte-du-Sud | CAQ safe |
| 52. | Labelle | CAQ safe |
| 53. | Bellechasse | CAQ safe |
| 54. | Montmorency | CAQ safe |
| 55. | Louis-Hébert | CAQ safe |
| 56. | Verchères | CAQ safe |
| 57. | Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | CAQ safe |
| 58. | Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata | CAQ safe |
| 59. | Lévis | CAQ safe |
| 60. | Portneuf | CAQ safe |
| 61. | Gatineau | CAQ safe |
| 62. | Vanier-Les Rivières | CAQ safe |
| 63. | Charlesbourg | CAQ safe |
| 64. | Lotbinière-Frontenac | CAQ likely |
| 65. | La Peltrie | CAQ likely |
| 66. | Soulanges | CAQ likely |
| 67. | Jean-Talon | CAQ likely |
| 68. | Duplessis | CAQ likely |
| 69. | Sainte-Rose | CAQ likely |
| 70. | Chapleau | CAQ likely |
| 71. | Huntingdon | CAQ likely |
| 72. | Ungava | CAQ likely |
| 73. | Laval-des-Rapides | CAQ leaning |
| 74. | Châteauguay | CAQ leaning |
| 75. | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue | CAQ leaning |
| 76. | Hull | CAQ leaning |
| 77. | Beauce-Nord | CAQ leaning |
| 78. | Chauveau | CAQ leaning |
| 79. | Rimouski | CAQ leaning |
| 80. | Beauce-Sud | CAQ leaning |
| 81. | Jonquière | CAQ leaning |
| 82. | Îles-de-la-Madeleine | CAQ leaning |
| 83. | René-Lévesque | Toss up PQ/CAQ |
| 84. | Bourget | Toss up CAQ/QS |
| 85. | Verdun | Toss up LIB/CAQ/QS |
| 86. | Marie-Victorin | Toss up PQ/CAQ/QS |
| 87. | Vimont | Toss up LIB/CAQ |
| 88. | Mille-Îles | Toss up LIB/CAQ |
| 89. | Fabre | Toss up LIB/CAQ |
| 90. | Bonaventure | Toss up PQ/CAQ |
| 91. | Maurice-Richard | Toss up CAQ/QS |
| 92. | Anjou–Louis-Riel | Toss up LIB/CAQ |
| 93. | Vaudreuil | Toss up LIB/CAQ |
| 94. | Gaspé | Toss up PQ/CAQ |
| 95. | Laporte | Toss up LIB/CAQ |
| 96. | Joliette | Toss up PQ/CAQ |
| 97. | Jean-Lesage | Toss up CAQ/QS |
| 98. | La Pinière | Toss up LIB/CAQ |
| 99. | Marquette | Toss up LIB/CAQ |
| 100. | Bourassa-Sauvé | LIB likely |
| 101. | Marguerite-Bourgeoys | LIB likely |
| 102. | Sherbrooke | QS likely |
| 103. | Rosemont | QS likely |
| 104. | Taschereau | QS likely |
| 105. | LaFontaine | LIB likely |