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Quebec

Coalition avenir Québec





Last update: September 10, 2025

LeaderFrançois Legault
National popular vote in 202241.0%
Current vote projection13.9% ± 2.2%
Current number of MNA's84
Current seat projection0 [0-0]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | September 10, 2025 10 5 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% Vote efficiency | CAQ 338Canada ©2023 0.1 seat/% 0 [0-0] 14% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | September 10, 2025

9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 11.7% 13.9% ± 2.2% Max. 16.1% Probabilities % CAQ

Seat projection | September 10, 2025

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Min. 0 Max. 0 0 Probabilities % CAQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Coalition avenir Québec


Last update: September 10, 2025
Dstricts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Champlain Likely PQ 2%
2. Granby Likely PQ 1%
3. Iberville Likely PQ 1%
4. La Prairie Leaning PQ 1%