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Quebec

Coalition avenir Québec





Last update: February 6, 2025

LeaderFrançois Legault
National popular vote in 202241.0%
Current vote projection22.1% ± 2.8%
Current number of MNA's86
Current seat projection12 [2-25]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% Vote efficiency | CAQ 338Canada ©2023 4.9 seat/% 12 [2-25] 22% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | February 6, 2025

16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 19.3% ▼ 22.1% ± 2.8% ▼ Max. 24.9% ▼ Probabilities % CAQ

Seat projection | February 6, 2025

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 2 ▼ 12 ▼ Max. 25 ▼ Probabilities % CAQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Coalition avenir Québec


Last update: February 6, 2025
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. L’Assomption Likely CAQ hold 94%
2. Papineau Likely CAQ hold 93%
3. La Prairie Likely CAQ hold 91%
4. Champlain Leaning CAQ hold 86%
5. Johnson Leaning CAQ hold 71%
6. Richmond Toss up PQ/CAQ 66%
7. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ 55%
8. Groulx Toss up PQ/CAQ 53%
9. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 52%
10. Blainville Toss up PQ/CAQ 52%
11. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 40%
12. Arthabaska Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 39%
13. Mirabel Toss up PQ/CAQ 38%
14. Montarville Toss up PQ/CAQ 37%
15. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 35%
16. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 35%
17. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 34%
18. Soulanges Toss up LIB/CAQ 34%
19. Granby Toss up PQ/CAQ 33%
20. Trois-Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ 32%
21. Lévis Toss up PQ/CAQ 29%
22. Nicolet-Bécancour Leaning PQ gain 21%
23. Saint-François Leaning PQ gain 18%
24. Maskinongé Leaning PQ gain 18%
25. Drummond–Bois-Francs Leaning PQ gain 18%
26. Iberville Leaning PQ gain 15%
27. Rousseau Leaning PQ gain 15%
28. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Leaning PQ gain 15%
29. Côte-du-Sud Leaning PQ gain 14%
30. Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ gain 13%
31. Saint-Hyacinthe Leaning PQ gain 12%
32. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 11%
33. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Likely PQ gain 9%
34. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Leaning PQ gain 9%
35. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ likely gain 8%
36. Beauharnois Likely PQ gain 7%
37. Chauveau PCQ likely gain 6%
38. Châteauguay Likely LIB gain 6%
39. Beauce-Sud PCQ likely gain 6%
40. Repentigny Likely PQ gain 6%
41. Vanier-Les Rivières Likely PQ gain 5%
42. Bellechasse PCQ likely gain 4%
43. Les Plaines Likely PQ gain 4%
44. Beauce-Nord PCQ likely gain 4%
45. Portneuf PCQ leaning gain 3%
46. Louis-Hébert Likely PQ gain 3%
47. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ gain 3%
48. Masson Likely PQ gain 3%
49. Lac-Saint-Jean Likely PQ gain 2%
50. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 2%
51. Sainte-Rose Likely LIB gain 2%
52. Sanguinet Likely PQ gain 2%
53. Vachon Likely PQ gain 1%
54. Borduas Likely PQ gain 1%
55. Terrebonne Likely PQ gain 1%
56. Dubuc Likely PQ gain 1%