Coalition avenir Québec
Latest update: June 28, 2026
| Leader | Christine Fréchette |
| National popular vote in 2022 | 41.0% |
| Current vote projection | 21.5% ± 3.3% |
| Current number of MNA's | 79 |
| Current seat projection | 12 [0-26] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Vote projection | June 28, 2026
Seat projection | June 28, 2026
List of favourable electoral districts | Coalition avenir Québec
| Electoral districts | Current party | Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Simon Jolin-Barrette
|
Likely CAQ | |
| 2. | Christine Fréchette
|
Leaning CAQ | |
| 3. | Christian Dubé [Elected as CAQ]
|
Leaning CAQ | |
| 4. | François Bonnardel
|
Leaning CAQ | |
| 5. | Nathalie Roy
|
Leaning CAQ | |
| 6. | Claude Reid
|
Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
| 7. | Jean-François Roberge
|
Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
| 8. | Mathieu Lacombe
|
Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | |
| 9. | Mathieu Lévesque
|
Toss up LIB/CAQ | |
| 10. | Audrey Bogemans
|
Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
| 11. | Sonia LeBel
|
Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
| 12. | Éric Girard
|
Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
| 13. | Sylvie D’Amours
|
Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
| 14. | François Jacques
|
Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ | |
| 15. | Mario Asselin
|
Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ | |
| 16. | Bernard Drainville
|
Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ | |
| 17. | François Legault
|
Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
| 18. | André Bachand
|
Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | |
| 19. | Louis-Charles Thouin
|
Leaning PQ | |
| 20. | Pascale Déry
|
Leaning PQ | |
| 21. | Geneviève Guilbault
|
Leaning PQ | |
| 22. | Mario Laframboise
|
Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | |
| 23. | Jean Boulet
|
Leaning PQ | |
| 24. | Suzanne Roy
|
Leaning PQ | |
| 25. | Lucie Lecours
|
Leaning PQ | |
| 26. | Ian Lafrenière
|
Leaning PQ | |
| 27. | Vacant
|
Likely PQ | |
| 28. | Martine Biron
|
PCQ leaning | |
| 29. | Isabelle Lecours
|
PCQ leaning | |
| 30. | Mathieu Rivest
|
Leaning PQ | |
| 31. | Benoit Charette
|
Likely PQ | |
| 32. | Donald Martel
|
Likely PQ | |
| 33. | Mathieu Lemay
|
Likely PQ | |
| 34. | Catherine Gentilcore
|
Likely PQ | |
| 35. | Jonatan Julien
|
Likely PQ | |
| 36. | Jean-François Simard
|
PCQ leaning | |
| 37. | Vincent Caron
|
PCQ likely | |
| 38. | Samuel Poulin
|
PCQ likely | |
| 39. | Jean-Bernard Émond
|
Likely PQ | |
| 40. | Sylvain Lévesque
|
PCQ likely | |
| 41. | Amélie Dionne
|
Likely PQ | |
| 42. | Vacant
|
Likely PQ | |
| 43. | Pierre Dufour [Elected as CAQ]
|
Likely PQ | |
| 44. | Marie-Louise Tardif
|
Likely PQ | |
| 45. | Simon Allaire
|
Likely PQ | |
| 46. | Luc Provençal
|
PCQ likely | |
| 47. | Sébastien Schneeberger
|
Likely PQ | |
| 48. | André Lamontagne
|
Likely PQ | |
| 49. | Geneviève Hébert
|
Leaning PQ | |
| 50. | Lionel Carmant
|
Likely PQ | |
| 51. | Éric Caire
|
PCQ likely | |
| 52. | Gilles Bélanger [Elected as CAQ]
|
Likely LIB | |
| 53. | Daniel Bernard
|
Likely PQ | |
| 54. | Carole Mallette
|
Likely LIB | |
| 55. | Chantal Soucy
|
Likely PQ | |
| 56. | Louis Lemieux
|
Likely PQ | |
| 57. | Shirley Dorismond
|
Likely PQ | |
| 58. | François Tremblay [Elected as CAQ]
|
Safe PQ | |
| 59. | Isabelle Charest
|
Likely LIB | |
| 60. | Robert Bussière
|
Likely LIB | |
| 61. | Nancy Guillemette
|
Safe PQ | |
| 62. | Chantal Rouleau
|
Safe PQ | |
| 63. | Yannick Gagnon
|
Safe PQ | |
| 64. | Marilyne Picard
|
Safe LIB | |
| 65. | Stéphanie Lachance
|
PCQ safe | |
| 66. | Kariane Bourassa
|
Safe PQ |