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Quebec

Coalition avenir Québec





Last update: September 26, 2022

LeaderFrançois Legault
National popular vote in 201837.4%
Current vote projection40.3% ± 5.3%
Current number of MNA's76
Current seat projection97 [82-104]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Coalition avenir Québec



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Arthabaska Safe CAQ hold >99%
2. Masson Safe CAQ hold >99%
3. Repentigny Safe CAQ hold >99%
4. Rousseau Safe CAQ hold >99%
5. L’Assomption Safe CAQ hold >99%
6. Nicolet-Bécancour Safe CAQ hold >99%
7. Richelieu Safe CAQ hold >99%
8. Mirabel Safe CAQ hold >99%
9. Drummond–Bois-Francs Safe CAQ hold >99%
10. Chicoutimi Safe CAQ hold >99%
11. Granby Safe CAQ hold >99%
12. Johnson Safe CAQ hold >99%
13. Champlain Safe CAQ hold >99%
14. Blainville Safe CAQ hold >99%
15. La Prairie Safe CAQ hold >99%
16. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Safe CAQ hold >99%
17. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe CAQ hold >99%
18. Les Plaines Safe CAQ hold >99%
19. Jonquière Safe CAQ gain >99%
20. Berthier Safe CAQ hold >99%
21. Prévost Safe CAQ hold >99%
22. Dubuc Safe CAQ hold >99%
23. Abitibi-Est Safe CAQ hold >99%
24. Beauharnois Safe CAQ hold >99%
25. Sanguinet Safe CAQ hold >99%
26. Chambly Safe CAQ hold >99%
27. Groulx Safe CAQ hold >99%
28. Mégantic Safe CAQ hold >99%
29. Montarville Safe CAQ hold >99%
30. Deux-Montagnes Safe CAQ hold >99%
31. Papineau Safe CAQ hold >99%
32. Trois-Rivières Safe CAQ hold >99%
33. Saint-Jean Safe CAQ hold >99%
34. Iberville Safe CAQ hold >99%
35. Saint-Jérôme Safe CAQ hold >99%
36. Richmond Safe CAQ hold >99%
37. Vachon Safe CAQ hold >99%
38. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe CAQ hold >99%
39. Borduas Safe CAQ hold >99%
40. Argenteuil Safe CAQ hold >99%
41. Bertrand Safe CAQ hold >99%
42. Maskinongé Safe CAQ hold >99%
43. Roberval Safe CAQ hold >99%
44. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe CAQ hold >99%
45. Brome-Missisquoi Safe CAQ hold >99%
46. Terrebonne Safe CAQ hold >99%
47. Orford Safe CAQ hold >99%
48. Taillon Safe CAQ hold >99%
49. Jean-Talon Safe CAQ hold >99%
50. Labelle Safe CAQ hold >99%
51. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Safe CAQ hold >99%
52. Gatineau Safe CAQ hold >99%
53. Verchères Safe CAQ hold >99%
54. Abitibi-Ouest Safe CAQ hold >99%
55. Soulanges Safe CAQ hold >99%
56. Sainte-Rose Safe CAQ hold >99%
57. Louis-Hébert Safe CAQ hold >99%
58. Châteauguay Safe CAQ hold >99%
59. Chapleau Safe CAQ hold >99%
60. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Safe CAQ hold >99%
61. Ungava Safe CAQ hold >99%
62. Huntingdon Safe CAQ hold >99%
63. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Likely CAQ hold 99%
64. Portneuf Likely CAQ hold 99%
65. La Peltrie Likely CAQ hold 99%
66. Bellechasse Likely CAQ hold 99%
67. Montmorency Likely CAQ hold 99%
68. Fabre Likely CAQ gain 99%
69. Lévis Likely CAQ hold 99%
70. Côte-du-Sud Likely CAQ hold 99%
71. Laval-des-Rapides Likely CAQ gain 98%
72. Lotbinière-Frontenac Likely CAQ hold 97%
73. Vimont Likely CAQ gain 97%
74. Duplessis Likely CAQ gain 97%
75. Rimouski Likely CAQ gain 94%
76. Vanier-Les Rivières Likely CAQ hold 93%
77. Mille-Îles Likely CAQ gain 93%
78. Charlesbourg Likely CAQ hold 92%
79. René-Lévesque Likely CAQ gain 90%
80. Marie-Victorin Leaning CAQ hold 88%
81. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Leaning CAQ gain 88%
82. Vaudreuil Leaning CAQ gain 86%
83. Anjou–Louis-Riel Leaning CAQ gain 86%
84. Saint-François Leaning CAQ hold 83%
85. Gaspé Leaning CAQ gain 82%
86. Chauveau Leaning CAQ hold 79%
87. Camille-Laurin (Bourget) Leaning CAQ hold 77%
88. Joliette Leaning CAQ gain 75%
89. Bonaventure Leaning CAQ gain 75%
90. Laporte Leaning CAQ gain 74%
91. Sherbrooke Toss up CAQ/QS 70%
92. Beauce-Nord Toss up CAQ/QCP 69%
93. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up PQ/CAQ 68%
94. Maurice-Richard Toss up CAQ/QS 60%
95. Beauce-Sud Toss up CAQ/QCP 58%
96. Jean-Lesage Toss up CAQ/QS 55%
97. Verdun Toss up LIB/CAQ/QS 48%
98. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Toss up LIB/CAQ/QS 38%
99. La Pinière Leaning LIB hold 27%
100. Hull Leaning LIB hold 25%
101. Marquette Leaning LIB hold 18%
102. Bourassa-Sauvé Leaning LIB hold 11%
103. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Likely LIB hold 7%
104. Taschereau QS likely hold 4%
105. Rosemont QS likely hold 2%
106. Chomedey Likely LIB hold 2%
107. LaFontaine Likely LIB hold <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Arthabaska Safe CAQ hold
2. Masson Safe CAQ hold
3. Repentigny Safe CAQ hold
4. Rousseau Safe CAQ hold
5. L’Assomption Safe CAQ hold
6. Nicolet-Bécancour Safe CAQ hold
7. Richelieu Safe CAQ hold
8. Mirabel Safe CAQ hold
9. Drummond–Bois-Francs Safe CAQ hold
10. Chicoutimi Safe CAQ hold
11. Granby Safe CAQ hold
12. Johnson Safe CAQ hold
13. Champlain Safe CAQ hold
14. Blainville Safe CAQ hold
15. La Prairie Safe CAQ hold
16. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Safe CAQ hold
17. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe CAQ hold
18. Les Plaines Safe CAQ hold
19. Jonquière Safe CAQ gain
20. Berthier Safe CAQ hold
21. Prévost Safe CAQ hold
22. Dubuc Safe CAQ hold
23. Abitibi-Est Safe CAQ hold
24. Beauharnois Safe CAQ hold
25. Sanguinet Safe CAQ hold
26. Chambly Safe CAQ hold
27. Groulx Safe CAQ hold
28. Mégantic Safe CAQ hold
29. Montarville Safe CAQ hold
30. Deux-Montagnes Safe CAQ hold
31. Papineau Safe CAQ hold
32. Trois-Rivières Safe CAQ hold
33. Saint-Jean Safe CAQ hold
34. Iberville Safe CAQ hold
35. Saint-Jérôme Safe CAQ hold
36. Richmond Safe CAQ hold
37. Vachon Safe CAQ hold
38. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe CAQ hold
39. Borduas Safe CAQ hold
40. Argenteuil Safe CAQ hold
41. Bertrand Safe CAQ hold
42. Maskinongé Safe CAQ hold
43. Roberval Safe CAQ hold
44. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe CAQ hold
45. Brome-Missisquoi Safe CAQ hold
46. Terrebonne Safe CAQ hold
47. Orford Safe CAQ hold
48. Taillon Safe CAQ hold
49. Jean-Talon Safe CAQ hold
50. Labelle Safe CAQ hold
51. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Safe CAQ hold
52. Gatineau Safe CAQ hold
53. Verchères Safe CAQ hold
54. Abitibi-Ouest Safe CAQ hold
55. Soulanges Safe CAQ hold
56. Sainte-Rose Safe CAQ hold
57. Louis-Hébert Safe CAQ hold
58. Châteauguay Safe CAQ hold
59. Chapleau Safe CAQ hold
60. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Safe CAQ hold
61. Ungava Safe CAQ hold
62. Huntingdon Safe CAQ hold
63. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Likely CAQ hold
64. Portneuf Likely CAQ hold
65. La Peltrie Likely CAQ hold
66. Bellechasse Likely CAQ hold
67. Montmorency Likely CAQ hold
68. Fabre Likely CAQ gain
69. Lévis Likely CAQ hold
70. Côte-du-Sud Likely CAQ hold
71. Laval-des-Rapides Likely CAQ gain
72. Lotbinière-Frontenac Likely CAQ hold
73. Vimont Likely CAQ gain
74. Duplessis Likely CAQ gain
75. Rimouski Likely CAQ gain
76. Vanier-Les Rivières Likely CAQ hold
77. Mille-Îles Likely CAQ gain
78. Charlesbourg Likely CAQ hold
79. René-Lévesque Likely CAQ gain
80. Marie-Victorin Leaning CAQ hold
81. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Leaning CAQ gain
82. Vaudreuil Leaning CAQ gain
83. Anjou–Louis-Riel Leaning CAQ gain
84. Saint-François Leaning CAQ hold
85. Gaspé Leaning CAQ gain
86. Chauveau Leaning CAQ hold
87. Camille-Laurin (Bourget) Leaning CAQ hold
88. Joliette Leaning CAQ gain
89. Bonaventure Leaning CAQ gain
90. Laporte Leaning CAQ gain
91. Sherbrooke Toss up CAQ/QS
92. Beauce-Nord Toss up CAQ/QCP
93. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up PQ/CAQ
94. Maurice-Richard Toss up CAQ/QS
95. Beauce-Sud Toss up CAQ/QCP
96. Jean-Lesage Toss up CAQ/QS
97. Verdun Toss up LIB/CAQ/QS
98. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Toss up LIB/CAQ/QS
99. La Pinière Leaning LIB hold
100. Hull Leaning LIB hold
101. Marquette Leaning LIB hold
102. Bourassa-Sauvé Leaning LIB hold
103. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Likely LIB hold
104. Taschereau QS likely hold
105. Rosemont QS likely hold
106. Chomedey Likely LIB hold
107. LaFontaine Likely LIB hold