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Quebec

Coalition avenir Québec





Last update: June 27, 2025

LeaderFrançois Legault
National popular vote in 202241.0%
Current vote projection16.9% ± 2.4%
Current number of MNA's86
Current seat projection0 [0-6]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025 10 5 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% Vote efficiency | CAQ 338Canada ©2023 1.2 seat/% 0 [0-6] 17% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | June 27, 2025

11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 14.5% 16.9% ± 2.4% Max. 19.3% Probabilities % CAQ

Seat projection | June 27, 2025

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Max. 6 Probabilities % CAQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Coalition avenir Québec


Last update: June 27, 2025
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 41%
2. Iberville Toss up PQ/CAQ 38%
3. Granby Leaning PQ 29%
4. La Prairie Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 27%
5. Johnson Leaning PQ 23%
6. L’Assomption Leaning PQ 16%
7. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CPQ 7%
8. Trois-Rivières Likely PQ 5%
9. Nicolet-Bécancour Likely PQ 4%
10. Richmond Toss up LIB/PQ 3%
11. Montarville Toss up LIB/PQ 2%
12. Côte-du-Sud Leaning PQ 2%
13. Maskinongé Likely PQ 2%
14. Drummond–Bois-Francs Likely PQ 2%
15. Groulx Likely PQ 1%
16. Saint-Hyacinthe Likely PQ 1%
17. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Likely PQ 1%
18. Lévis Likely PQ 1%
19. Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ 1%
20. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely PQ 1%
21. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Likely PQ 1%