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Quebec

Coalition avenir Québec





Last update: March 18, 2025

LeaderFrançois Legault
National popular vote in 202241.0%
Current vote projection22.6% ± 2.8%
Current number of MNA's86
Current seat projection14 [4-28]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 18, 2025 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% Vote efficiency | CAQ 338Canada ©2023 4.8 seat/% 14 [4-28] 23% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | March 18, 2025

16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 19.8% ▼ 22.6% ± 2.8% ▼ Max. 25.4% ▼ Probabilities % CAQ

Seat projection | March 18, 2025

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 4 ▼ 14 ▼ Max. 28 ▼ Probabilities % CAQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Coalition avenir Québec


Last update: March 18, 2025
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Papineau Likely CAQ hold 97%
2. La Prairie Likely CAQ hold 95%
3. Champlain Likely CAQ hold 92%
4. Johnson Leaning CAQ hold 82%
5. Richmond Leaning CAQ hold 74%
6. L’Assomption Leaning CAQ hold 74%
7. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 69%
8. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ 66%
9. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 62%
10. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 56%
11. Montarville Toss up PQ/CAQ 50%
12. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 50%
13. Granby Toss up PQ/CAQ 50%
14. Arthabaska Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 50%
15. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 49%
16. Soulanges Toss up LIB/CAQ 49%
17. Iberville Toss up PQ/CAQ 47%
18. Trois-Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ 44%
19. Saint-François Toss up PQ/CAQ 39%
20. Nicolet-Bécancour Toss up PQ/CAQ 38%
21. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CAQ 35%
22. Lévis Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 30%
23. Drummond–Bois-Francs Leaning PQ gain 28%
24. Maskinongé Leaning PQ gain 28%
25. Saint-Hyacinthe Leaning PQ gain 26%
26. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Leaning PQ gain 23%
27. Groulx Leaning PQ gain 20%
28. Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ gain 19%
29. Blainville Leaning PQ gain 18%
30. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ gain 15%
31. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Leaning PQ gain 15%
32. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ leaning gain 13%
33. Beauharnois Leaning PQ gain 12%
34. Mirabel Likely PQ gain 9%
35. Châteauguay Likely LIB gain 9%
36. Louis-Hébert Likely PQ gain 5%
37. Beauce-Sud PCQ likely gain 5%
38. Borduas Likely PQ gain 5%
39. Sanguinet Likely PQ gain 4%
40. Vanier-Les Rivières Toss up PQ/CPQ 4%
41. Lac-Saint-Jean Likely PQ gain 4%
42. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 3%
43. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ leaning gain 3%
44. Beauce-Nord PCQ likely gain 3%
45. Vachon Likely PQ gain 3%
46. Rousseau Likely PQ gain 2%
47. Sainte-Rose Likely LIB gain 2%
48. Dubuc Likely PQ gain 1%
49. Portneuf PCQ likely gain 1%
50. Chambly Likely PQ gain 1%
51. Chauveau PCQ likely gain 1%
52. Abitibi-Ouest Likely PQ gain 1%
53. Chicoutimi Likely PQ gain 1%
54. Bellechasse PCQ likely gain 1%