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Quebec

Coalition avenir Québec





Last update: December 22, 2022

LeaderFrançois Legault
National popular vote in 202241.0%
Current vote projection40.6% ± 5.5%
Current number of MNA's90
Current seat projection89 [79-97]

Vote projection | December 22, 2022

28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 35.1% 40.6% ± 5.5% 2022 41.0% Max. 46.1% Probabilities % CAQ

Seat projection | December 22, 2022

67 72 77 82 87 92 97 102 107 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 79 89 2022 90 seats Max. 97 Probabilities % CAQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Coalition avenir Québec



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Chicoutimi Safe CAQ hold >99%
2. Jonquière Safe CAQ hold >99%
3. L’Assomption Safe CAQ hold >99%
4. Granby Safe CAQ hold >99%
5. René-Lévesque Safe CAQ hold >99%
6. Dubuc Safe CAQ hold >99%
7. Champlain Safe CAQ hold >99%
8. Roberval Safe CAQ hold >99%
9. Richelieu Safe CAQ hold >99%
10. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe CAQ hold >99%
11. Maskinongé Safe CAQ hold >99%
12. Beauharnois Safe CAQ hold >99%
13. Papineau Safe CAQ hold >99%
14. Iberville Safe CAQ hold >99%
15. Arthabaska Safe CAQ hold >99%
16. La Prairie Safe CAQ hold >99%
17. Johnson Safe CAQ hold >99%
18. Chapleau Safe CAQ hold >99%
19. Labelle Safe CAQ hold >99%
20. Drummond–Bois-Francs Safe CAQ hold >99%
21. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Safe CAQ hold >99%
22. Repentigny Safe CAQ hold >99%
23. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Safe CAQ hold >99%
24. Masson Safe CAQ hold >99%
25. Trois-Rivières Safe CAQ hold >99%
26. Borduas Safe CAQ hold >99%
27. Les Plaines Safe CAQ hold >99%
28. Saint-Jean Safe CAQ hold >99%
29. Mirabel Safe CAQ hold >99%
30. Saint-Jérôme Safe CAQ hold >99%
31. Lévis Safe CAQ hold >99%
32. Blainville Safe CAQ hold >99%
33. Terrebonne Safe CAQ hold >99%
34. Sanguinet Safe CAQ hold >99%
35. Côte-du-Sud Safe CAQ hold >99%
36. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe CAQ hold >99%
37. Chambly Safe CAQ hold >99%
38. Vanier-Les Rivières Safe CAQ hold >99%
39. Groulx Safe CAQ hold >99%
40. Abitibi-Est Safe CAQ hold >99%
41. Nicolet-Bécancour Safe CAQ hold >99%
42. Louis-Hébert Safe CAQ hold >99%
43. Richmond Safe CAQ hold >99%
44. Gatineau Safe CAQ hold >99%
45. Huntingdon Safe CAQ hold >99%
46. Deux-Montagnes Safe CAQ hold >99%
47. Brome-Missisquoi Safe CAQ hold >99%
48. Charlesbourg Safe CAQ hold >99%
49. Argenteuil Safe CAQ hold >99%
50. Vachon Safe CAQ hold >99%
51. Orford Safe CAQ hold >99%
52. Verchères Safe CAQ hold >99%
53. Rousseau Safe CAQ hold >99%
54. Berthier Safe CAQ hold >99%
55. Mégantic Safe CAQ hold >99%
56. Montarville Safe CAQ hold >99%
57. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe CAQ hold >99%
58. Prévost Safe CAQ hold >99%
59. Soulanges Safe CAQ hold >99%
60. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Safe CAQ hold >99%
61. Bertrand Safe CAQ hold >99%
62. Abitibi-Ouest Safe CAQ hold >99%
63. Montmorency Safe CAQ hold >99%
64. Taillon Safe CAQ hold >99%
65. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe CAQ hold >99%
66. Portneuf Safe CAQ hold >99%
67. La Peltrie Likely CAQ hold 99%
68. Chauveau Likely CAQ hold 99%
69. Sainte-Rose Likely CAQ hold 99%
70. Saint-François Likely CAQ hold 99%
71. Châteauguay Likely CAQ hold 99%
72. Duplessis Likely CAQ hold 98%
73. Lotbinière-Frontenac Likely CAQ hold 98%
74. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely CAQ hold 98%
75. Bellechasse Likely CAQ hold 96%
76. Jean-Talon Likely CAQ hold 93%
77. Ungava Likely CAQ hold 93%
78. Hull Likely CAQ hold 92%
79. Joliette Leaning CAQ hold 89%
80. Bonaventure Leaning CAQ hold 88%
81. Rimouski Leaning CAQ hold 88%
82. Anjou–Louis-Riel Leaning CAQ hold 77%
83. Vimont Leaning CAQ hold 75%
84. Marie-Victorin Leaning CAQ hold 75%
85. Beauce-Sud Leaning CAQ hold 73%
86. Beauce-Nord Leaning CAQ hold 71%
87. Laval-des-Rapides Leaning CAQ hold 70%
88. Laporte Toss up LIB/CAQ 62%
89. Fabre Toss up LIB/CAQ 56%
90. Mille-Îles Toss up LIB/CAQ 42%
91. Vaudreuil Toss up LIB/CAQ 41%
92. Gaspé Toss up PQ/CAQ 41%
93. Sherbrooke QS leaning hold 22%
94. Jean-Lesage QS leaning hold 20%
95. La Pinière Leaning LIB hold 15%
96. Maurice-Richard QS leaning hold 13%
97. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Leaning PQ hold 12%
98. Camille-Laurin (Bourget) Likely PQ hold 6%
99. Chomedey Likely LIB hold 6%
100. Verdun Toss up LIB/QS 3%
101. Bourassa-Sauvé Likely LIB hold 1%
102. Rosemont QS likely hold 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Chicoutimi Safe CAQ hold
2. Jonquière Safe CAQ hold
3. L’Assomption Safe CAQ hold
4. Granby Safe CAQ hold
5. René-Lévesque Safe CAQ hold
6. Dubuc Safe CAQ hold
7. Champlain Safe CAQ hold
8. Roberval Safe CAQ hold
9. Richelieu Safe CAQ hold
10. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe CAQ hold
11. Maskinongé Safe CAQ hold
12. Beauharnois Safe CAQ hold
13. Papineau Safe CAQ hold
14. Iberville Safe CAQ hold
15. Arthabaska Safe CAQ hold
16. La Prairie Safe CAQ hold
17. Johnson Safe CAQ hold
18. Chapleau Safe CAQ hold
19. Labelle Safe CAQ hold
20. Drummond–Bois-Francs Safe CAQ hold
21. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Safe CAQ hold
22. Repentigny Safe CAQ hold
23. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Safe CAQ hold
24. Masson Safe CAQ hold
25. Trois-Rivières Safe CAQ hold
26. Borduas Safe CAQ hold
27. Les Plaines Safe CAQ hold
28. Saint-Jean Safe CAQ hold
29. Mirabel Safe CAQ hold
30. Saint-Jérôme Safe CAQ hold
31. Lévis Safe CAQ hold
32. Blainville Safe CAQ hold
33. Terrebonne Safe CAQ hold
34. Sanguinet Safe CAQ hold
35. Côte-du-Sud Safe CAQ hold
36. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe CAQ hold
37. Chambly Safe CAQ hold
38. Vanier-Les Rivières Safe CAQ hold
39. Groulx Safe CAQ hold
40. Abitibi-Est Safe CAQ hold
41. Nicolet-Bécancour Safe CAQ hold
42. Louis-Hébert Safe CAQ hold
43. Richmond Safe CAQ hold
44. Gatineau Safe CAQ hold
45. Huntingdon Safe CAQ hold
46. Deux-Montagnes Safe CAQ hold
47. Brome-Missisquoi Safe CAQ hold
48. Charlesbourg Safe CAQ hold
49. Argenteuil Safe CAQ hold
50. Vachon Safe CAQ hold
51. Orford Safe CAQ hold
52. Verchères Safe CAQ hold
53. Rousseau Safe CAQ hold
54. Berthier Safe CAQ hold
55. Mégantic Safe CAQ hold
56. Montarville Safe CAQ hold
57. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe CAQ hold
58. Prévost Safe CAQ hold
59. Soulanges Safe CAQ hold
60. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Safe CAQ hold
61. Bertrand Safe CAQ hold
62. Abitibi-Ouest Safe CAQ hold
63. Montmorency Safe CAQ hold
64. Taillon Safe CAQ hold
65. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe CAQ hold
66. Portneuf Safe CAQ hold
67. La Peltrie Likely CAQ hold
68. Chauveau Likely CAQ hold
69. Sainte-Rose Likely CAQ hold
70. Saint-François Likely CAQ hold
71. Châteauguay Likely CAQ hold
72. Duplessis Likely CAQ hold
73. Lotbinière-Frontenac Likely CAQ hold
74. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely CAQ hold
75. Bellechasse Likely CAQ hold
76. Jean-Talon Likely CAQ hold
77. Ungava Likely CAQ hold
78. Hull Likely CAQ hold
79. Joliette Leaning CAQ hold
80. Bonaventure Leaning CAQ hold
81. Rimouski Leaning CAQ hold
82. Anjou–Louis-Riel Leaning CAQ hold
83. Vimont Leaning CAQ hold
84. Marie-Victorin Leaning CAQ hold
85. Beauce-Sud Leaning CAQ hold
86. Beauce-Nord Leaning CAQ hold
87. Laval-des-Rapides Leaning CAQ hold
88. Laporte Toss up LIB/CAQ
89. Fabre Toss up LIB/CAQ
90. Mille-Îles Toss up LIB/CAQ
91. Vaudreuil Toss up LIB/CAQ
92. Gaspé Toss up PQ/CAQ
93. Sherbrooke QS leaning hold
94. Jean-Lesage QS leaning hold
95. La Pinière Leaning LIB hold
96. Maurice-Richard QS leaning hold
97. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Leaning PQ hold
98. Camille-Laurin (Bourget) Likely PQ hold
99. Chomedey Likely LIB hold
100. Verdun Toss up LIB/QS
101. Bourassa-Sauvé Likely LIB hold
102. Rosemont QS likely hold