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Quebec

Coalition avenir Québec





Last update: August 30, 2023

LeaderFrançois Legault
National popular vote in 202241.0%
Current vote projection37.1% ± 4.3%
Current number of MNA's89
Current seat projection86 [70-96]

1. Granby 2. Chapleau 3. Champlain 4. Papineau 5. L’Assomption 6. Arthabaska 7. La Prairie 8. Chicoutimi 9. Maskinongé 10. Gatineau 11. Johnson 12. Iberville 13. Huntingdon 14. Drummond–Bois-Francs 15. Trois-Rivières 16. Jonquière 17. Dubuc 18. Brome-Missisquoi 19. Saint-Hyacinthe 20. Beauharnois 21. Mégantic 22. Richmond 23. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice 24. Les Plaines 25. Abitibi-Est 26. Blainville 27. Vachon 28. Mirabel 29. Repentigny 30. Groulx 31. Sanguinet 32. Richelieu 33. Roberval 34. Rousseau 35. Pointe-aux-Trembles 36. Masson 37. Soulanges 38. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 39. Orford 40. René-Lévesque 41. Deux-Montagnes 42. Nicolet-Bécancour 43. Borduas 44. Terrebonne 45. Côte-du-Sud 46. Chambly 47. Argenteuil 48. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 49. Saint-Jérôme 50. Labelle 51. Montarville 52. Berthier 53. Lac-Saint-Jean 54. Châteauguay 55. Verchères 56. Sainte-Rose 57. Prévost 58. Saint-François 59. Hull 60. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue 61. Saint-Jean 62. Anjou–Louis-Riel 63. Bertrand Majority: 63 seats 64. Ungava 65. Bellechasse 66. Lévis 67. Portneuf 68. Lotbinière-Frontenac 69. Abitibi-Ouest 70. Chauveau 71. Taillon 72. Joliette 73. Beauce-Sud 74. Rimouski 75. Duplessis 76. Beauce-Nord 77. Vanier-Les Rivières 78. Vimont 79. Laval-des-Rapides 80. Montmorency 81. La Peltrie 82. Vaudreuil 83. Bonaventure 84. Laporte 85. Fabre 86. Louis-Hébert 87. Jean-Talon 88. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré 89. Mille-Îles 90. Charlesbourg 91. Marie-Victorin 92. La Pinière 93. Maurice-Richard 94. Bourassa-Sauvé 95. Verdun 96. Chomedey 97. Sherbrooke 98. Jean-Lesage 99. Gaspé 100. Pontiac 101. Rosemont 102. Îles-de-la-Madeleine 103. Marguerite-Bourgeoys 104. Viau 105. Mont-Royal -Outremont 106. Marquette 107. Acadie 108. Taschereau 109. LaFontaine 110. Camille-Laurin 111. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne 112. Nelligan 113. Jeanne-Mance–Viger 114. Saint-Laurent 115. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 116. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 117. Westmount–Saint-Louis 118. Laurier-Dorion 119. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 120. D’Arcy-McGee 121. Mercier 122. Robert-Baldwin 123. Gouin 124. Jacques-Cartier 125. Matane-Matapédia CAQ The path to 63 seats 338Canada Quebec projection August 30, 2023

× × × × × × × CAQ 86 [70-96] August 30, 2023 ✓ Projected net gain       × Projected net loss       Pale square = Toss up 338Canada ©2023 Montréal Montérégie Laval Laurentides Lanaudière Mauricie Outaouais Estrie Abitibi-T. Centre-du-Québec Capitale-Nationale Chaudière-App. Sag.-Lac. Côte-Nord Bas-St-Laurent-Gaspésie Nord-du-Québec

Vote projection | August 30, 2023

28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 32.8% 37.1% ± 4.3% 2022 41.0% Max. 41.3% Probabilities % CAQ

Seat projection | August 30, 2023

53 58 63 68 73 78 83 88 93 98 103 108 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Majority 63 seats Min. 70 86 2022 90 seats Max. 96 Probabilities % CAQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Coalition avenir Québec



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Granby Safe CAQ hold >99%
2. L’Assomption Safe CAQ hold >99%
3. Chicoutimi Safe CAQ hold >99%
4. Champlain Safe CAQ hold >99%
5. Papineau Safe CAQ hold >99%
6. Maskinongé Safe CAQ hold >99%
7. Arthabaska Safe CAQ hold >99%
8. Chapleau Safe CAQ hold >99%
9. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe CAQ hold >99%
10. Johnson Safe CAQ hold >99%
11. Iberville Safe CAQ hold >99%
12. Drummond–Bois-Francs Safe CAQ hold >99%
13. La Prairie Safe CAQ hold >99%
14. Beauharnois Safe CAQ hold >99%
15. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Safe CAQ hold >99%
16. Trois-Rivières Safe CAQ hold >99%
17. Repentigny Safe CAQ hold >99%
18. Gatineau Safe CAQ hold >99%
19. Blainville Safe CAQ hold >99%
20. Huntingdon Safe CAQ hold >99%
21. Mégantic Safe CAQ hold >99%
22. Richmond Safe CAQ hold >99%
23. Brome-Missisquoi Safe CAQ hold >99%
24. Vachon Safe CAQ hold >99%
25. Les Plaines Safe CAQ hold >99%
26. Mirabel Safe CAQ hold >99%
27. Groulx Safe CAQ hold >99%
28. Soulanges Safe CAQ hold >99%
29. Orford Safe CAQ hold >99%
30. Jonquière Safe CAQ hold >99%
31. Dubuc Safe CAQ hold >99%
32. Abitibi-Est Safe CAQ hold >99%
33. Masson Safe CAQ hold >99%
34. Sanguinet Safe CAQ hold >99%
35. Rousseau Safe CAQ hold >99%
36. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe CAQ hold >99%
37. Deux-Montagnes Safe CAQ hold >99%
38. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Safe CAQ hold >99%
39. Richelieu Safe CAQ hold >99%
40. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Safe CAQ hold >99%
41. Borduas Safe CAQ hold >99%
42. Roberval Safe CAQ hold >99%
43. Terrebonne Safe CAQ hold >99%
44. Chambly Safe CAQ hold >99%
45. Côte-du-Sud Safe CAQ hold >99%
46. Nicolet-Bécancour Safe CAQ hold >99%
47. Argenteuil Safe CAQ hold >99%
48. Saint-Jérôme Safe CAQ hold >99%
49. Montarville Safe CAQ hold >99%
50. Sainte-Rose Safe CAQ hold >99%
51. René-Lévesque Safe CAQ hold >99%
52. Châteauguay Likely CAQ hold 99%
53. Labelle Likely CAQ hold 99%
54. Berthier Likely CAQ hold 99%
55. Verchères Likely CAQ hold 99%
56. Hull Likely CAQ hold 98%
57. Saint-François Likely CAQ hold 98%
58. Lac-Saint-Jean Likely CAQ hold 97%
59. Prévost Likely CAQ hold 97%
60. Saint-Jean Likely CAQ hold 96%
61. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely CAQ hold 94%
62. Anjou–Louis-Riel Likely CAQ hold 94%
63. Bertrand Likely CAQ hold 94%
64. Lévis Likely CAQ hold 93%
65. Bellechasse Likely CAQ hold 91%
66. Chauveau Likely CAQ hold 91%
67. Taillon Likely CAQ hold 90%
68. Lotbinière-Frontenac Leaning CAQ hold 89%
69. Portneuf Leaning CAQ hold 88%
70. Abitibi-Ouest Leaning CAQ hold 87%
71. Ungava Leaning CAQ hold 86%
72. Joliette Leaning CAQ hold 83%
73. Rimouski Leaning CAQ hold 77%
74. Vanier-Les Rivières Leaning CAQ hold 76%
75. Vimont Leaning CAQ hold 74%
76. Laval-des-Rapides Leaning CAQ hold 73%
77. Beauce-Sud Leaning CAQ hold 73%
78. Duplessis Leaning CAQ hold 72%
79. Montmorency Leaning CAQ hold 71%
80. Beauce-Nord Toss up CAQ/QCP 68%
81. Vaudreuil Toss up LIB/CAQ 67%
82. La Peltrie Toss up CAQ/QCP 64%
83. Laporte Toss up LIB/CAQ 64%
84. Bonaventure Toss up PQ/CAQ 61%
85. Fabre Toss up LIB/CAQ 60%
86. Louis-Hébert Toss up PQ/CAQ 53%
87. Jean-Talon Toss up PQ/CAQ 49%
88. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Toss up PQ/CAQ 47%
89. Mille-Îles Toss up LIB/CAQ 41%
90. Charlesbourg Toss up PQ/CAQ 39%
91. Marie-Victorin Leaning PQ gain 24%
92. La Pinière Leaning LIB hold 16%
93. Maurice-Richard QS likely hold 8%
94. Sherbrooke QS likely hold 6%
95. Bourassa-Sauvé Likely LIB hold 6%
96. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Likely PQ hold 6%
97. Chomedey Likely LIB hold 4%
98. Gaspé Likely PQ gain 4%
99. Verdun QS likely hold 4%
100. Pontiac Likely LIB hold 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Granby Safe CAQ hold
2. L’Assomption Safe CAQ hold
3. Chicoutimi Safe CAQ hold
4. Champlain Safe CAQ hold
5. Papineau Safe CAQ hold
6. Maskinongé Safe CAQ hold
7. Arthabaska Safe CAQ hold
8. Chapleau Safe CAQ hold
9. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe CAQ hold
10. Johnson Safe CAQ hold
11. Iberville Safe CAQ hold
12. Drummond–Bois-Francs Safe CAQ hold
13. La Prairie Safe CAQ hold
14. Beauharnois Safe CAQ hold
15. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Safe CAQ hold
16. Trois-Rivières Safe CAQ hold
17. Repentigny Safe CAQ hold
18. Gatineau Safe CAQ hold
19. Blainville Safe CAQ hold
20. Huntingdon Safe CAQ hold
21. Mégantic Safe CAQ hold
22. Richmond Safe CAQ hold
23. Brome-Missisquoi Safe CAQ hold
24. Vachon Safe CAQ hold
25. Les Plaines Safe CAQ hold
26. Mirabel Safe CAQ hold
27. Groulx Safe CAQ hold
28. Soulanges Safe CAQ hold
29. Orford Safe CAQ hold
30. Jonquière Safe CAQ hold
31. Dubuc Safe CAQ hold
32. Abitibi-Est Safe CAQ hold
33. Masson Safe CAQ hold
34. Sanguinet Safe CAQ hold
35. Rousseau Safe CAQ hold
36. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe CAQ hold
37. Deux-Montagnes Safe CAQ hold
38. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Safe CAQ hold
39. Richelieu Safe CAQ hold
40. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Safe CAQ hold
41. Borduas Safe CAQ hold
42. Roberval Safe CAQ hold
43. Terrebonne Safe CAQ hold
44. Chambly Safe CAQ hold
45. Côte-du-Sud Safe CAQ hold
46. Nicolet-Bécancour Safe CAQ hold
47. Argenteuil Safe CAQ hold
48. Saint-Jérôme Safe CAQ hold
49. Montarville Safe CAQ hold
50. Sainte-Rose Safe CAQ hold
51. René-Lévesque Safe CAQ hold
52. Châteauguay Likely CAQ hold
53. Labelle Likely CAQ hold
54. Berthier Likely CAQ hold
55. Verchères Likely CAQ hold
56. Hull Likely CAQ hold
57. Saint-François Likely CAQ hold
58. Lac-Saint-Jean Likely CAQ hold
59. Prévost Likely CAQ hold
60. Saint-Jean Likely CAQ hold
61. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely CAQ hold
62. Anjou–Louis-Riel Likely CAQ hold
63. Bertrand Likely CAQ hold
64. Lévis Likely CAQ hold
65. Bellechasse Likely CAQ hold
66. Chauveau Likely CAQ hold
67. Taillon Likely CAQ hold
68. Lotbinière-Frontenac Leaning CAQ hold
69. Portneuf Leaning CAQ hold
70. Abitibi-Ouest Leaning CAQ hold
71. Ungava Leaning CAQ hold
72. Joliette Leaning CAQ hold
73. Rimouski Leaning CAQ hold
74. Vanier-Les Rivières Leaning CAQ hold
75. Vimont Leaning CAQ hold
76. Laval-des-Rapides Leaning CAQ hold
77. Beauce-Sud Leaning CAQ hold
78. Duplessis Leaning CAQ hold
79. Montmorency Leaning CAQ hold
80. Beauce-Nord Toss up CAQ/QCP
81. Vaudreuil Toss up LIB/CAQ
82. La Peltrie Toss up CAQ/QCP
83. Laporte Toss up LIB/CAQ
84. Bonaventure Toss up PQ/CAQ
85. Fabre Toss up LIB/CAQ
86. Louis-Hébert Toss up PQ/CAQ
87. Jean-Talon Toss up PQ/CAQ
88. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Toss up PQ/CAQ
89. Mille-Îles Toss up LIB/CAQ
90. Charlesbourg Toss up PQ/CAQ
91. Marie-Victorin Leaning PQ gain
92. La Pinière Leaning LIB hold
93. Maurice-Richard QS likely hold
94. Sherbrooke QS likely hold
95. Bourassa-Sauvé Likely LIB hold
96. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Likely PQ hold
97. Chomedey Likely LIB hold
98. Gaspé Likely PQ gain
99. Verdun QS likely hold
100. Pontiac Likely LIB hold