338Canada.com - Québec - Coalition avenir Québec





Last update: February 11, 2021

LeaderFrançois Legault
National popular vote in 201837.4%
Current vote projection46.8% ± 5.6%
Current number of MP's75
Current seat projection90 ± 12



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Coalition avenir Québec



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Beauce-Nord CAQ safe >99%
2. Granby CAQ safe >99%
3. Arthabaska CAQ safe >99%
4. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière CAQ safe >99%
5. L'Assomption CAQ safe >99%
6. Beauce-Sud CAQ safe >99%
7. Mirabel CAQ safe >99%
8. Lévis CAQ safe >99%
9. Drummond–Bois-Francs CAQ safe >99%
10. La Peltrie CAQ safe >99%
11. Champlain CAQ safe >99%
12. Portneuf CAQ safe >99%
13. Saint-Hyacinthe CAQ safe >99%
14. Blainville CAQ safe >99%
15. Nicolet-Bécancour CAQ safe >99%
16. Johnson CAQ safe >99%
17. Côte-du-Sud CAQ safe >99%
18. Rousseau CAQ safe >99%
19. Chambly CAQ safe >99%
20. Lotbinière-Frontenac CAQ safe >99%
21. Repentigny CAQ safe >99%
22. Masson CAQ safe >99%
23. Deux-Montagnes CAQ safe >99%
24. Borduas CAQ safe >99%
25. Bellechasse CAQ safe >99%
26. Les Plaines CAQ safe >99%
27. Vachon CAQ safe >99%
28. Richelieu CAQ safe >99%
29. Beauharnois CAQ safe >99%
30. Iberville CAQ safe >99%
31. Montmorency CAQ safe >99%
32. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré CAQ safe >99%
33. La Prairie CAQ safe >99%
34. Charlesbourg CAQ safe >99%
35. Montarville CAQ safe >99%
36. Sanguinet CAQ safe >99%
37. Groulx CAQ safe >99%
38. Prévost CAQ safe >99%
39. Mégantic CAQ safe >99%
40. Louis-Hébert CAQ safe >99%
41. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice CAQ safe >99%
42. Saint-Jérôme CAQ safe >99%
43. Vanier-Les Rivières CAQ safe >99%
44. Terrebonne CAQ safe >99%
45. Abitibi-Est CAQ safe >99%
46. Roberval CAQ safe >99%
47. Trois-Rivières CAQ safe >99%
48. Saint-Jean CAQ safe >99%
49. Bertrand CAQ safe >99%
50. Chauveau CAQ safe >99%
51. Papineau CAQ safe >99%
52. Argenteuil CAQ safe >99%
53. Maskinongé CAQ safe >99%
54. Dubuc CAQ safe >99%
55. Richmond CAQ safe >99%
56. Brome-Missisquoi CAQ safe >99%
57. Taillon CAQ safe >99%
58. Chicoutimi CAQ safe >99%
59. Saint-François CAQ safe >99%
60. Berthier CAQ safe >99%
61. Orford CAQ safe >99%
62. Pointe-aux-Trembles CAQ safe >99%
63. Bourget CAQ safe >99%
64. Verchères CAQ safe >99%
65. Lac-Saint-Jean CAQ safe >99%
66. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata CAQ safe >99%
67. Gatineau CAQ safe >99%
68. Labelle CAQ safe >99%
69. Sainte-Rose CAQ safe >99%
70. Marie-Victorin CAQ likely 99%
71. Soulanges CAQ likely 99%
72. Abitibi-Ouest CAQ likely 98%
73. Duplessis CAQ likely 98%
74. Huntingdon CAQ likely 97%
75. Chapleau CAQ likely 97%
76. Jean-Talon CAQ likely 95%
77. Ungava CAQ likely 94%
78. Laval-des-Rapides CAQ likely 93%
79. Châteauguay CAQ likely 91%
80. Jean-Lesage CAQ likely 90%
81. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue CAQ leaning 89%
82. Fabre CAQ leaning 82%
83. René-Lévesque CAQ leaning 80%
84. Mille-Îles CAQ leaning 74%
85. Vimont Toss up 66%
86. Rimouski Toss up 64%
87. Hull Toss up 60%
88. Jonquière Toss up 60%
89. Gaspé Toss up 55%
90. Bonaventure Toss up 53%
91. Joliette Toss up 47%
92. Sherbrooke Toss up 43%
93. Laporte Toss up 41%
94. Anjou–Louis-Riel Toss up 39%
95. Maurice-Richard Toss up 32%
96. Vaudreuil Toss up 30%
97. Verdun LIB leaning 25%
98. Taschereau QS leaning 22%
99. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up 19%
100. Rosemont QS leaning 18%
101. Marquette LIB leaning 15%
102. La Pinière LIB leaning 13%
103. Marguerite-Bourgeoys LIB leaning 12%
104. Bourassa-Sauvé LIB likely 10%
105. LaFontaine LIB likely 4%
106. Pontiac LIB likely 3%
107. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne LIB likely 2%
108. Viau LIB likely 1%
109. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS likely <1%
110. Chomedey LIB likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Beauce-Nord CAQ safe
2. Granby CAQ safe
3. Arthabaska CAQ safe
4. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière CAQ safe
5. L'Assomption CAQ safe
6. Beauce-Sud CAQ safe
7. Mirabel CAQ safe
8. Lévis CAQ safe
9. Drummond–Bois-Francs CAQ safe
10. La Peltrie CAQ safe
11. Champlain CAQ safe
12. Portneuf CAQ safe
13. Saint-Hyacinthe CAQ safe
14. Blainville CAQ safe
15. Nicolet-Bécancour CAQ safe
16. Johnson CAQ safe
17. Côte-du-Sud CAQ safe
18. Rousseau CAQ safe
19. Chambly CAQ safe
20. Lotbinière-Frontenac CAQ safe
21. Repentigny CAQ safe
22. Masson CAQ safe
23. Deux-Montagnes CAQ safe
24. Borduas CAQ safe
25. Bellechasse CAQ safe
26. Les Plaines CAQ safe
27. Vachon CAQ safe
28. Richelieu CAQ safe
29. Beauharnois CAQ safe
30. Iberville CAQ safe
31. Montmorency CAQ safe
32. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré CAQ safe
33. La Prairie CAQ safe
34. Charlesbourg CAQ safe
35. Montarville CAQ safe
36. Sanguinet CAQ safe
37. Groulx CAQ safe
38. Prévost CAQ safe
39. Mégantic CAQ safe
40. Louis-Hébert CAQ safe
41. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice CAQ safe
42. Saint-Jérôme CAQ safe
43. Vanier-Les Rivières CAQ safe
44. Terrebonne CAQ safe
45. Abitibi-Est CAQ safe
46. Roberval CAQ safe
47. Trois-Rivières CAQ safe
48. Saint-Jean CAQ safe
49. Bertrand CAQ safe
50. Chauveau CAQ safe
51. Papineau CAQ safe
52. Argenteuil CAQ safe
53. Maskinongé CAQ safe
54. Dubuc CAQ safe
55. Richmond CAQ safe
56. Brome-Missisquoi CAQ safe
57. Taillon CAQ safe
58. Chicoutimi CAQ safe
59. Saint-François CAQ safe
60. Berthier CAQ safe
61. Orford CAQ safe
62. Pointe-aux-Trembles CAQ safe
63. Bourget CAQ safe
64. Verchères CAQ safe
65. Lac-Saint-Jean CAQ safe
66. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata CAQ safe
67. Gatineau CAQ safe
68. Labelle CAQ safe
69. Sainte-Rose CAQ safe
70. Marie-Victorin CAQ likely
71. Soulanges CAQ likely
72. Abitibi-Ouest CAQ likely
73. Duplessis CAQ likely
74. Huntingdon CAQ likely
75. Chapleau CAQ likely
76. Jean-Talon CAQ likely
77. Ungava CAQ likely
78. Laval-des-Rapides CAQ likely
79. Châteauguay CAQ likely
80. Jean-Lesage CAQ likely
81. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue CAQ leaning
82. Fabre CAQ leaning
83. René-Lévesque CAQ leaning
84. Mille-Îles CAQ leaning
85. Vimont Toss up
86. Rimouski Toss up
87. Hull Toss up
88. Jonquière Toss up
89. Gaspé Toss up
90. Bonaventure Toss up
91. Joliette Toss up
92. Sherbrooke Toss up
93. Laporte Toss up
94. Anjou–Louis-Riel Toss up
95. Maurice-Richard Toss up
96. Vaudreuil Toss up
97. Verdun LIB leaning
98. Taschereau QS leaning
99. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up
100. Rosemont QS leaning
101. Marquette LIB leaning
102. La Pinière LIB leaning
103. Marguerite-Bourgeoys LIB leaning
104. Bourassa-Sauvé LIB likely
105. LaFontaine LIB likely
106. Pontiac LIB likely
107. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne LIB likely
108. Viau LIB likely
109. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS likely
110. Chomedey LIB likely



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