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Quebec


Orford


MNA: Gilles Bélanger (CAQ)


Latest projection: September 28, 2023

Safe CAQ hold
Orford 37% ± 7%▼ 20% ± 6%▼ 16% ± 5%▼ 15% ± 5%▲ 10% ± 4%▲ CAQ 2022 42.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 28, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Orford >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | September 28, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Orford

LIB 15% ± 5% PQ 20% ± 6% CAQ 37% ± 7% QS 16% ± 5% QCP 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Orford 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Orford

LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ >99% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Orford



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 21.0% 40.1% 42.9% 37% ± 7% QS 7.7% 17.9% 16.2% 16% ± 5% LIB 44.1% 25.0% 15.0% 15% ± 5% PQ 26.2% 12.4% 13.6% 20% ± 6% QCP 0.0% 1.1% 10.9% 10% ± 4% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%