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Quebec

Orford


MNA: Gilles Bélanger

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
Orford 25% ± 6%▲ PQ 25% ± 7%▲ LIB 24% ± 6%▼ CAQ 13% ± 4% QS 10% ± 4%▼ CPQ 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 42.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Orford 42%▲ PQ 39%▲ LIB 19%▼ CAQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Orford

LIB 25% ± 7% PQ 25% ± 6% CAQ 24% ± 6% QS 13% ± 4% CPQ 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Orford 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 48% LIB 17% QS 16% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 48% QS 16% LIB 16% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 46% QS 16% LIB 16% CPQ 14% PQ 6% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 46% QS 16% LIB 16% CPQ 14% PQ 6% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 46% LIB 16% QS 16% CPQ 14% PQ 6% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 46% LIB 16% QS 16% CPQ 14% PQ 6% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 46% LIB 16% QS 16% CPQ 14% PQ 6% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 46% LIB 16% QS 16% CPQ 14% PQ 6% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 46% LIB 16% QS 16% CPQ 14% PQ 6% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 45% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 14% PQ 7% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 46% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 14% PQ 7% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 46% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 14% PQ 7% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 46% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 14% PQ 7% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 45% CPQ 16% LIB 16% QS 14% PQ 7% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 45% CPQ 16% LIB 16% QS 14% PQ 7% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 45% CPQ 17% LIB 16% QS 14% PQ 6% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 45% CPQ 17% LIB 16% QS 14% PQ 6% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 45% CPQ 17% LIB 16% QS 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 45% CPQ 17% LIB 16% QS 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 44% CPQ 16% LIB 16% QS 16% PQ 7% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 44% CPQ 16% LIB 16% QS 16% PQ 6% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 44% CPQ 16% LIB 16% QS 16% PQ 6% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 44% LIB 16% CPQ 16% QS 15% PQ 6% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 44% CPQ 16% LIB 16% QS 15% PQ 6% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 42% CPQ 16% LIB 15% QS 15% PQ 9% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 43% QS 17% CPQ 16% LIB 14% PQ 9% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 43% QS 16% CPQ 16% LIB 14% PQ 9% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 43% QS 16% CPQ 16% LIB 14% PQ 9% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 43% CPQ 16% QS 16% LIB 14% PQ 9% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 45% CPQ 16% QS 15% LIB 14% PQ 8% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 45% CPQ 16% QS 15% LIB 14% PQ 8% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 43% CPQ 16% QS 16% LIB 14% PQ 10% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 44% CPQ 16% QS 15% LIB 14% PQ 10% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 44% CPQ 16% QS 15% LIB 14% PQ 10% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 44% QS 15% CPQ 15% LIB 14% PQ 10% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 44% QS 15% CPQ 15% LIB 14% PQ 10% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 43% QS 15% CPQ 15% LIB 14% PQ 10% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 43% QS 16% LIB 15% PQ 14% CPQ 11% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 43% QS 16% PQ 16% LIB 15% CPQ 10% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 43% QS 16% PQ 16% LIB 15% CPQ 10% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 42% QS 18% PQ 17% LIB 15% CPQ 8% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 42% QS 19% PQ 17% LIB 14% CPQ 8% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 37% PQ 23% QS 17% LIB 15% CPQ 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 38% PQ 25% QS 17% LIB 13% CPQ 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 38% PQ 25% QS 17% LIB 13% CPQ 6% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 40% PQ 21% QS 17% LIB 13% CPQ 7% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 37% PQ 20% QS 16% LIB 15% CPQ 10% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 37% PQ 20% QS 16% LIB 15% CPQ 10% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 30% PQ 28% QS 16% LIB 15% CPQ 9% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 29% CAQ 28% LIB 16% QS 16% CPQ 8% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 31% CAQ 28% QS 17% LIB 16% CPQ 8% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 31% CAQ 25% LIB 17% QS 17% CPQ 8% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 31% CAQ 26% LIB 17% QS 16% CPQ 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 29% CAQ 27% LIB 18% QS 16% CPQ 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 29% CAQ 27% LIB 19% QS 16% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 27% CAQ 27% LIB 24% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 26% PQ 25% LIB 25% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 27% LIB 25% PQ 24% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 26% LIB 24% PQ 24% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 26% LIB 24% PQ 23% QS 14% CPQ 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 25% LIB 24% PQ 24% QS 13% CPQ 11% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 25% LIB 25% CAQ 24% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Orford

LIB 39% PQ 42% CAQ 19% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 65% PQ 35% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 53% CAQ 47% LIB <1% QS <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 75% CAQ 25% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 90% CAQ 10% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 85% CAQ 15% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 67% CAQ 33% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 68% CAQ 32% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 45% CAQ 38% LIB 17% QS <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 39% PQ 33% LIB 28% QS <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 56% LIB 27% PQ 17% QS <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 54% LIB 26% PQ 21% QS <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 61% LIB 23% PQ 17% QS <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 40% LIB 33% PQ 28% QS <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 42% LIB 39% CAQ 19% QS <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Orford



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 21.0% 40.1% 42.9% 24% ± 6% QS 7.7% 17.9% 16.2% 13% ± 4% LIB 44.1% 25.0% 15.0% 25% ± 7% PQ 26.2% 12.4% 13.6% 25% ± 6% CPQ 0.0% 1.1% 10.9% 10% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.