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Quebec


Groulx


MNA: Éric Girard (CAQ)


Latest projection: December 7 2023

Leaning PQ gain
Groulx 33% ± 7%▲ 30% ± 7%▼ 16% ± 5%▲ 13% ± 4% 8% ± 3% CAQ 2022 47.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 7 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Groulx 70%▲ 30%▼ <1% Odds of winning | December 7 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Groulx

LIB 13% ± 4% PQ 33% ± 7% CAQ 30% ± 7% QS 16% ± 5% QCP 8% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Groulx 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Groulx

LIB <1% PQ 70% CAQ 30% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Groulx



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 30.5% 40.6% 47.7% 30% ± 7% QS 6.8% 17.2% 16.2% 16% ± 5% PQ 29.6% 15.8% 15.3% 33% ± 7% LIB 30.9% 20.2% 11.0% 13% ± 4% QCP 0.0% 1.0% 8.7% 8% ± 3% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%