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Quebec

Groulx


MNA: Éric Girard

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Leaning PQ gain
Groulx 33% ± 6%▼ PQ 30% ± 6%▲ CAQ 16% ± 5% LIB 11% ± 4% QS 8% ± 3% CPQ CAQ 2022 47.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Groulx 76%▼ PQ 24%▲ CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Groulx

LIB 16% ± 5% PQ 33% ± 6% CAQ 30% ± 6% QS 11% ± 4% CPQ 8% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Groulx 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 54% QS 15% LIB 10% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 54% QS 16% CPQ 10% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 53% QS 16% CPQ 12% LIB 9% PQ 7% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 53% QS 16% CPQ 12% LIB 9% PQ 7% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 53% QS 16% CPQ 12% LIB 9% PQ 7% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 53% QS 15% CPQ 12% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 52% QS 16% CPQ 12% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 52% QS 16% CPQ 12% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 52% QS 15% CPQ 12% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 52% QS 15% CPQ 12% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 52% QS 15% CPQ 12% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 52% QS 15% CPQ 12% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 52% QS 15% CPQ 12% LIB 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 52% CPQ 14% QS 14% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 52% CPQ 14% QS 14% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 52% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 52% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 52% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 53% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 50% QS 15% CPQ 14% LIB 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 51% QS 15% CPQ 13% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 51% QS 15% CPQ 13% LIB 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 51% QS 15% CPQ 13% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 51% QS 15% CPQ 14% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 49% QS 15% CPQ 14% PQ 11% LIB 9% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 49% QS 16% CPQ 14% PQ 12% LIB 8% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 49% QS 16% CPQ 14% PQ 11% LIB 8% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 49% QS 16% CPQ 14% PQ 11% LIB 8% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 49% QS 16% CPQ 14% PQ 11% LIB 8% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 51% QS 15% CPQ 14% PQ 11% LIB 8% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 51% QS 15% CPQ 14% PQ 11% LIB 8% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 49% QS 16% CPQ 14% PQ 13% LIB 8% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 50% QS 15% CPQ 14% PQ 12% LIB 8% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 50% QS 15% CPQ 14% PQ 12% LIB 8% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 50% QS 15% CPQ 13% PQ 13% LIB 8% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 50% QS 15% CPQ 13% PQ 13% LIB 8% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 50% QS 15% PQ 13% CPQ 13% LIB 8% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 48% QS 16% PQ 15% LIB 11% CPQ 9% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 47% PQ 18% QS 16% LIB 11% CPQ 8% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 47% PQ 18% QS 16% LIB 11% CPQ 8% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 46% PQ 19% QS 17% LIB 11% CPQ 6% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 46% PQ 19% QS 17% LIB 10% CPQ 6% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 46% PQ 19% QS 18% LIB 11% CPQ 6% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 47% PQ 20% QS 16% LIB 10% CPQ 6% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 47% PQ 20% QS 16% LIB 10% CPQ 6% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 44% PQ 22% QS 16% LIB 10% CPQ 6% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 40% PQ 21% QS 16% LIB 12% CPQ 9% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 40% PQ 21% QS 16% LIB 12% CPQ 9% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 39% PQ 23% QS 15% LIB 13% CPQ 9% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 31% PQ 30% QS 15% LIB 13% CPQ 8% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 33% CAQ 30% QS 16% LIB 13% CPQ 8% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 36% CAQ 25% QS 15% LIB 14% CPQ 8% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 35% CAQ 28% QS 14% LIB 14% CPQ 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 38% CAQ 25% QS 14% LIB 14% CPQ 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 37% CAQ 25% QS 14% LIB 14% CPQ 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 36% CAQ 29% LIB 15% QS 12% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 34% CAQ 29% LIB 17% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 32% CAQ 32% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 33% CAQ 31% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 33% PQ 29% LIB 16% QS 12% CPQ 8% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 31% CAQ 31% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 34% CAQ 30% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 34% CAQ 29% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 33% CAQ 30% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Groulx

LIB <1% PQ 76% CAQ 24% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 53% PQ 47% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 70% CAQ 30% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 89% CAQ 11% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 92% CAQ 8% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 85% CAQ 15% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 52% CAQ 48% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 64% CAQ 36% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 82% PQ 18% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 53% CAQ 47% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 79% CAQ 21% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 89% CAQ 11% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 76% CAQ 24% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Groulx



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 30.5% 40.6% 47.7% 30% ± 6% QS 6.8% 17.2% 16.2% 11% ± 4% PQ 29.6% 15.8% 15.3% 33% ± 6% LIB 30.9% 20.2% 11.0% 16% ± 5% CPQ 0.0% 1.0% 8.7% 8% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.