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Quebec

Quebec Liberal Party





Last update: March 21, 2024

LeaderMarc Tanguay (interim)
National popular vote in 202214.4%
Current vote projection14.7% ± 2.2%
Current number of MNA's19
Current seat projection26 [20-31]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 21, 2024 35 30 25 20 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% Vote efficiency | LIB 338Canada ©2023 2.0 seat/% 26 [20-31] 15% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | March 21, 2024

10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 12.5% 2022 14.4% 14.7% ± 2.2% Max. 17.0% Probabilities % LIB

Seat projection | March 21, 2024

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 20 2022 21 seats 26 Max. 31 Probabilities % LIB

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Liberal Party


Last update: March 21, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB hold >99%
2. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB hold >99%
3. Nelligan Safe LIB hold >99%
4. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB hold >99%
5. Pontiac Safe LIB hold >99%
6. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB hold >99%
7. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB hold >99%
8. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB hold >99%
9. LaFontaine Safe LIB hold >99%
10. Marquette Safe LIB hold >99%
11. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB hold >99%
12. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB hold >99%
13. La Pinière Safe LIB hold >99%
14. Chomedey Safe LIB hold >99%
15. Vaudreuil Safe LIB hold >99%
16. Acadie Safe LIB hold >99%
17. Bourassa-Sauvé Likely LIB hold 97%
18. Mont-Royal -Outremont Likely LIB hold 96%
19. Fabre Likely LIB gain 95%
20. Mille-Îles Likely LIB hold 93%
21. Vimont Leaning LIB gain 87%
22. Hull Leaning LIB gain 86%
23. Laporte Leaning LIB gain 80%
24. Laval-des-Rapides Toss up LIB/PQ 64%
25. Sainte-Rose Toss up LIB/PQ 58%
26. Châteauguay Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 57%
27. Anjou–Louis-Riel Toss up LIB/PQ 49%
28. Soulanges Toss up LIB/PQ 33%
29. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 24%
30. Ungava Toss up PQ/QS 7%
31. Viau QS likely gain 3%
32. Verdun QS likely hold 1%
33. Huntingdon Toss up PQ/CAQ 1%