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Quebec

Quebec Liberal Party





Last update: May 16, 2025

LeaderMarc Tanguay (interim)
National popular vote in 202214.4%
Current vote projection20.2% ± 2.7%
Current number of MNA's19
Current seat projection33 [29-39]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025 45 40 35 30 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% Vote efficiency | LIB 338Canada ©2023 1.5 seat/% 33 [29-39] 20% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | May 16, 2025

14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2022 14.4% Min. 17.5% ▼ 20.2% ± 2.7% ▼ Max. 22.9% ▼ Probabilities % LIB

Seat projection | May 16, 2025

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 29 ▼ 33 ▼ Max. 39 ▼ Probabilities % LIB

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Liberal Party


Last update: May 16, 2025
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB >99%
2. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB >99%
3. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB >99%
4. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB >99%
5. Nelligan Safe LIB >99%
6. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB >99%
7. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB >99%
8. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB >99%
9. LaFontaine Safe LIB >99%
10. Marquette Safe LIB >99%
11. Pontiac Safe LIB >99%
12. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB >99%
13. Chomedey Safe LIB >99%
14. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Safe LIB >99%
15. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB >99%
16. La Pinière Safe LIB >99%
17. Acadie Safe LIB >99%
18. Mont-Royal -Outremont Safe LIB >99%
19. Vaudreuil Safe LIB >99%
20. Fabre Safe LIB >99%
21. Mille-Îles Safe LIB >99%
22. Verdun Safe LIB >99%
23. Vimont Safe LIB >99%
24. Viau Safe LIB >99%
25. Laval-des-Rapides Likely LIB >99%
26. Laporte Likely LIB >99%
27. Sainte-Rose Likely LIB >99%
28. Hull Likely LIB 99%
29. Anjou–Louis-Riel Likely LIB 98%
30. Châteauguay Likely LIB 97%
31. Soulanges Leaning LIB 73%
32. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 62%
33. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 52%
34. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ 42%
35. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 40%
36. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 39%
37. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 29%
38. Papineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 25%
39. Maurice-Richard Leaning PQ 8%
40. Vachon Likely PQ 2%
41. Saint-François Likely PQ 1%
42. Laurier-Dorion QS likely 1%
43. La Prairie Likely CAQ 1%