Quebec Liberal Party
![](https://qc125.com/img/plq.jpg)
Last update: August 29, 2024
Leader | Marc Tanguay (interim) |
National popular vote in 2022 | 14.4% |
Current vote projection | 16.4% ± 2.5% |
Current number of MNA's | 19 |
Current seat projection | 29 [24-34] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Vote projection | August 29, 2024
Seat projection | August 29, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Liberal Party
Last update: August 29, 2024
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Jacques-Cartier | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
2. | Robert-Baldwin | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
3. | Nelligan | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
4. | D’Arcy-McGee | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
5. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
6. | Pontiac | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
7. | Westmount–Saint-Louis | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
8. | Saint-Laurent | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
9. | Jeanne-Mance–Viger | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
10. | LaFontaine | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
11. | Chomedey | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
12. | Marquette | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
13. | La Pinière | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
14. | Marguerite-Bourgeoys | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
15. | Vaudreuil | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
16. | Acadie | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
17. | Fabre | ![]() |
Safe LIB gain | >99% |
18. | Bourassa-Sauvé | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
19. | Mille-Îles | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
20. | Vimont | ![]() |
Safe LIB gain | >99% |
21. | Mont-Royal -Outremont | ![]() |
Likely LIB hold | 98% |
22. | Laval-des-Rapides | ![]() |
Likely LIB gain | 97% |
23. | Hull | ![]() |
Likely LIB gain | 96% |
24. | Laporte | ![]() |
Likely LIB gain | 93% |
25. | Sainte-Rose | ![]() |
Leaning LIB gain | 90% |
26. | Anjou–Louis-Riel | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/PQ | 70% |
27. | Viau | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/QS | 66% |
28. | Verdun | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/QS | 59% |
29. | Châteauguay | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/CAQ | 59% |
30. | Gatineau | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/CAQ | 40% |
31. | Ungava | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ/QS | 33% |
32. | Soulanges | ![]() |
Leaning CAQ hold | 27% |
33. | Orford | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | 23% |
34. | Chapleau | ![]() |
Leaning CAQ hold | 10% |
35. | Huntingdon | ![]() |
Toss up PQ/CAQ | 4% |
36. | Brome-Missisquoi | ![]() |
Leaning CAQ hold | 2% |
37. | Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | ![]() |
QS likely hold | 1% |