Quebec Liberal Party

Last update: March 18, 2025
Leader | Marc Tanguay (interim) |
National popular vote in 2022 | 14.4% |
Current vote projection | 19.1% ± 2.6% |
Current number of MNA's | 19 |
Current seat projection | 31 [28-37] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Vote projection | March 18, 2025
Seat projection | March 18, 2025
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Liberal Party
Last update: March 18, 2025
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Jacques-Cartier | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
2. | Robert-Baldwin | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
3. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
4. | D’Arcy-McGee | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
5. | Nelligan | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
6. | Westmount–Saint-Louis | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
7. | Saint-Laurent | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
8. | Jeanne-Mance–Viger | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
9. | LaFontaine | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
10. | Pontiac | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
11. | Marquette | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
12. | Marguerite-Bourgeoys | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
13. | Chomedey | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
14. | Bourassa-Sauvé | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
15. | La Pinière | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
16. | Acadie | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
17. | Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | ![]() |
Safe LIB gain | >99% |
18. | Mont-Royal -Outremont | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
19. | Vaudreuil | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
20. | Fabre | ![]() |
Safe LIB gain | >99% |
21. | Vimont | ![]() |
Safe LIB gain | >99% |
22. | Mille-Îles | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
23. | Verdun | ![]() |
Safe LIB gain | >99% |
24. | Viau | ![]() |
Safe LIB hold | >99% |
25. | Hull | ![]() |
Likely LIB gain | >99% |
26. | Laval-des-Rapides | ![]() |
Likely LIB gain | 99% |
27. | Laporte | ![]() |
Likely LIB gain | 99% |
28. | Sainte-Rose | ![]() |
Likely LIB gain | 98% |
29. | Anjou–Louis-Riel | ![]() |
Likely LIB gain | 94% |
30. | Châteauguay | ![]() |
Likely LIB gain | 91% |
31. | Soulanges | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/CAQ | 50% |
32. | Ungava | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/PQ | 45% |
33. | Gatineau | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | 36% |
34. | Orford | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | 31% |
35. | Chapleau | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/CAQ | 29% |
36. | Huntingdon | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | 26% |
37. | Brome-Missisquoi | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | 18% |
38. | Maurice-Richard | ![]() |
Leaning PQ gain | 3% |
39. | Papineau | ![]() |
Likely CAQ hold | 2% |
40. | Saint-François | ![]() |
Toss up PQ/CAQ | 1% |
41. | Vachon | ![]() |
Likely PQ gain | 1% |