Quebec Liberal Party
Last update: December 8, 2024
Leader | Marc Tanguay (interim) |
National popular vote in 2022 | 14.4% |
Current vote projection | 17.0% ± 2.6% |
Current number of MNA's | 19 |
Current seat projection | 31 [24-37] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Vote projection | December 8, 2024
Seat projection | December 8, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Liberal Party
Last update: December 8, 2024
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Jacques-Cartier | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
2. | Robert-Baldwin | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
3. | D’Arcy-McGee | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
4. | Nelligan | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
5. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
6. | Westmount–Saint-Louis | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
7. | Saint-Laurent | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
8. | Jeanne-Mance–Viger | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
9. | Pontiac | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
10. | LaFontaine | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
11. | Marquette | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
12. | Chomedey | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
13. | Marguerite-Bourgeoys | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
14. | Vaudreuil | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
15. | Acadie | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
16. | La Pinière | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
17. | Bourassa-Sauvé | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
18. | Mont-Royal -Outremont | Likely LIB hold | >99% | |
19. | Fabre | Likely LIB gain | 99% | |
20. | Hull | Likely LIB gain | 98% | |
21. | Mille-Îles | Likely LIB hold | 98% | |
22. | Vimont | Likely LIB gain | 98% | |
23. | Laval-des-Rapides | Likely LIB gain | 92% | |
24. | Sainte-Rose | Likely LIB gain | 91% | |
25. | Verdun | Leaning LIB gain | 87% | |
26. | Viau | Leaning LIB hold | 87% | |
27. | Châteauguay | Leaning LIB gain | 80% | |
28. | Laporte | Leaning LIB gain | 80% | |
29. | Anjou–Louis-Riel | Toss up LIB/PQ | 54% | |
30. | Soulanges | Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | 45% | |
31. | Gatineau | Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | 43% | |
32. | Brome-Missisquoi | Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | 36% | |
33. | Orford | Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | 35% | |
34. | Chapleau | Toss up LIB/CAQ | 30% | |
35. | Ungava | Toss up LIB/PQ | 29% | |
36. | Huntingdon | Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | 24% | |
37. | Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | QS likely hold | 6% | |
38. | Papineau | Likely CAQ hold | 1% |