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Quebec

Quebec Liberal Party





Last update: September 10, 2025

LeaderPablo Rodriguez
National popular vote in 202214.4%
Current vote projection25.5% ± 2.9%
Current number of MNA's20
Current seat projection38 [35-43]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | September 10, 2025 55 50 45 40 35 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% Vote efficiency | LIB 338Canada ©2023 1.1 seat/% 38 [35-43] 26% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | September 10, 2025

19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 22.6% ▼ 25.5% ± 2.9% ▼ Max. 28.5% ▼ Probabilities % LIB

Seat projection | September 10, 2025

30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 35 ▼ 38 ▼ Max. 43 ▼ Probabilities % LIB

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Liberal Party


Last update: September 10, 2025
Dstricts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB >99%
2. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB >99%
3. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB >99%
4. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB >99%
5. Nelligan Safe LIB >99%
6. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB >99%
7. Pontiac Safe LIB >99%
8. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB >99%
9. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB >99%
10. LaFontaine Safe LIB >99%
11. Chomedey Safe LIB >99%
12. Marquette Safe LIB >99%
13. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB >99%
14. La Pinière Safe LIB >99%
15. Acadie Safe LIB >99%
16. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB >99%
17. Mille-Îles Safe LIB >99%
18. Mont-Royal -Outremont Safe LIB >99%
19. Vimont Safe LIB >99%
20. Fabre Safe LIB >99%
21. Vaudreuil Safe LIB >99%
22. Viau Safe LIB >99%
23. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Safe LIB >99%
24. Laporte Safe LIB >99%
25. Hull Safe LIB >99%
26. Verdun Safe LIB >99%
27. Sainte-Rose Safe LIB >99%
28. Châteauguay Safe LIB >99%
29. Laval-des-Rapides Safe LIB >99%
30. Anjou–Louis-Riel Likely LIB >99%
31. Soulanges Likely LIB >99%
32. Chapleau Likely LIB >99%
33. Brome-Missisquoi Likely LIB 97%
34. Gatineau Likely LIB 96%
35. Papineau Likely LIB 95%
36. Huntingdon Likely LIB 95%
37. Orford Likely LIB 94%
38. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 55%
39. Laurier-Dorion Toss up LIB/QS 49%
40. Sherbrooke Toss up LIB/PQ 35%
41. Saint-François Leaning PQ 16%
42. La Prairie Leaning PQ 13%
43. Maurice-Richard Leaning PQ 10%
44. Montarville Likely PQ 8%
45. Richmond Likely PQ 7%
46. Vachon Likely PQ 5%
47. Abitibi-Est Likely PQ 3%
48. Mégantic Likely PQ 1%