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Quebec

Quebec Liberal Party





Last update: August 30, 2023

LeaderMarc Tanguay (interim)
National popular vote in 202214.4%
Current vote projection12.5% ± 1.9%
Current number of MNA's19
Current seat projection18 [14-24]

1. Jacques-Cartier 2. Robert-Baldwin 3. Westmount–Saint-Louis 4. Saint-Laurent 5. Jeanne-Mance–Viger 6. Nelligan 7. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 8. D’Arcy-McGee 9. LaFontaine 10. Acadie 11. Marquette 12. Marguerite-Bourgeoys 13. Pontiac 14. Mont-Royal -Outremont 15. Chomedey 16. Bourassa-Sauvé 17. La Pinière 18. Mille-Îles 19. Fabre 20. Laporte 21. Vaudreuil 22. Laval-des-Rapides 23. Viau 24. Vimont 25. Anjou–Louis-Riel 26. Verdun 27. Hull 28. Sainte-Rose 29. Châteauguay 30. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne 31. Ungava 32. Jean-Talon 33. Soulanges 34. Maurice-Richard 35. La Peltrie 36. Montmorency 37. Louis-Hébert 38. Taillon 39. Marie-Victorin 40. Vachon 41. Rosemont 42. Vanier-Les Rivières 43. Charlesbourg 44. Orford 45. Gatineau 46. Montarville 47. Jean-Lesage 48. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré 49. Portneuf 50. Chauveau 51. Lotbinière-Frontenac 52. Huntingdon 53. Abitibi-Est 54. Côte-du-Sud 55. Lévis 56. Laurier-Dorion 57. Saint-François 58. Deux-Montagnes 59. Groulx 60. Argenteuil 61. Brome-Missisquoi 62. Bonaventure 63. Taschereau Majority: 63 seats 64. Bellechasse 65. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 66. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 67. Blainville 68. Bertrand 69. Terrebonne 70. Saint-Jean 71. Chambly 72. Sanguinet 73. La Prairie 74. Abitibi-Ouest 75. Prévost 76. Rimouski 77. Pointe-aux-Trembles 78. Duplessis 79. Sherbrooke 80. Repentigny 81. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue 82. Chapleau 83. Verchères 84. Masson 85. Mirabel 86. Richmond 87. Mégantic 88. Beauce-Nord 89. Les Plaines 90. Camille-Laurin 91. Nicolet-Bécancour 92. Joliette 93. Saint-Jérôme 94. Beauce-Sud 95. Borduas 96. Labelle 97. Mercier 98. Berthier 99. Trois-Rivières 100. Rousseau 101. Gaspé 102. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 103. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 104. Papineau 105. Beauharnois 106. Lac-Saint-Jean 107. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice 108. Iberville 109. Drummond–Bois-Francs 110. Richelieu 111. Saint-Hyacinthe 112. Johnson 113. Îles-de-la-Madeleine 114. Maskinongé 115. Roberval 116. Arthabaska 117. L’Assomption 118. Champlain 119. René-Lévesque 120. Dubuc 121. Granby 122. Chicoutimi 123. Gouin 124. Jonquière 125. Matane-Matapédia LIB The path to 63 seats 338Canada Quebec projection August 30, 2023

× × LIB 18 [14-24] August 30, 2023 ✓ Projected net gain       × Projected net loss       Pale square = Toss up 338Canada ©2023 Montréal Montérégie Laval Laurentides Lanaudière Mauricie Outaouais Estrie Abitibi-T. Centre-du-Québec Capitale-Nationale Chaudière-App. Sag.-Lac. Côte-Nord Bas-St-Laurent-Gaspésie Nord-du-Québec

Vote projection | August 30, 2023

8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 10.7% 12.5% ± 1.9% Max. 14.4% 2022 14.4% Probabilities % LIB

Seat projection | August 30, 2023

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 14 18 2022 21 seats Max. 24 Probabilities % LIB

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Liberal Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB hold >99%
2. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB hold >99%
3. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB hold >99%
4. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB hold >99%
5. Nelligan Safe LIB hold >99%
6. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB hold >99%
7. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB hold >99%
8. LaFontaine Safe LIB hold >99%
9. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB hold >99%
10. Acadie Safe LIB hold >99%
11. Marquette Safe LIB hold >99%
12. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB hold >99%
13. Mont-Royal -Outremont Likely LIB hold 99%
14. Pontiac Likely LIB hold 99%
15. Chomedey Likely LIB hold 96%
16. Bourassa-Sauvé Likely LIB hold 94%
17. La Pinière Leaning LIB hold 84%
18. Mille-Îles Toss up LIB/CAQ 59%
19. Fabre Toss up LIB/CAQ 40%
20. Laporte Toss up LIB/CAQ 36%
21. Vaudreuil Toss up LIB/CAQ 33%
22. Viau QS leaning gain 30%
23. Laval-des-Rapides Leaning CAQ hold 26%
24. Vimont Leaning CAQ hold 26%
25. Anjou–Louis-Riel Likely CAQ hold 6%
26. Verdun QS likely hold 2%
27. Hull Likely CAQ hold 1%
28. Châteauguay Likely CAQ hold 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB hold
2. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB hold
3. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB hold
4. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB hold
5. Nelligan Safe LIB hold
6. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB hold
7. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB hold
8. LaFontaine Safe LIB hold
9. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB hold
10. Acadie Safe LIB hold
11. Marquette Safe LIB hold
12. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB hold
13. Mont-Royal -Outremont Likely LIB hold
14. Pontiac Likely LIB hold
15. Chomedey Likely LIB hold
16. Bourassa-Sauvé Likely LIB hold
17. La Pinière Leaning LIB hold
18. Mille-Îles Toss up LIB/CAQ
19. Fabre Toss up LIB/CAQ
20. Laporte Toss up LIB/CAQ
21. Vaudreuil Toss up LIB/CAQ
22. Viau QS leaning gain
23. Laval-des-Rapides Leaning CAQ hold
24. Vimont Leaning CAQ hold
25. Anjou–Louis-Riel Likely CAQ hold
26. Verdun QS likely hold
27. Hull Likely CAQ hold
28. Châteauguay Likely CAQ hold