Quebec Liberal Party
Last update: August 29, 2024
Leader | Marc Tanguay (interim) |
National popular vote in 2022 | 14.4% |
Current vote projection | 16.4% ± 2.5% |
Current number of MNA's | 19 |
Current seat projection | 29 [24-34] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Vote projection | August 29, 2024
Seat projection | August 29, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Liberal Party
Last update: August 29, 2024
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Jacques-Cartier | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
2. | Robert-Baldwin | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
3. | Nelligan | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
4. | D’Arcy-McGee | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
5. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
6. | Pontiac | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
7. | Westmount–Saint-Louis | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
8. | Saint-Laurent | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
9. | Jeanne-Mance–Viger | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
10. | LaFontaine | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
11. | Chomedey | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
12. | Marquette | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
13. | La Pinière | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
14. | Marguerite-Bourgeoys | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
15. | Vaudreuil | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
16. | Acadie | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
17. | Fabre | Safe LIB gain | >99% | |
18. | Bourassa-Sauvé | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
19. | Mille-Îles | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
20. | Vimont | Safe LIB gain | >99% | |
21. | Mont-Royal -Outremont | Likely LIB hold | 98% | |
22. | Laval-des-Rapides | Likely LIB gain | 97% | |
23. | Hull | Likely LIB gain | 96% | |
24. | Laporte | Likely LIB gain | 93% | |
25. | Sainte-Rose | Leaning LIB gain | 90% | |
26. | Anjou–Louis-Riel | Toss up LIB/PQ | 70% | |
27. | Viau | Toss up LIB/QS | 66% | |
28. | Verdun | Toss up LIB/QS | 59% | |
29. | Châteauguay | Toss up LIB/CAQ | 59% | |
30. | Gatineau | Toss up LIB/CAQ | 40% | |
31. | Ungava | Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ/QS | 33% | |
32. | Soulanges | Leaning CAQ hold | 27% | |
33. | Orford | Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | 23% | |
34. | Chapleau | Leaning CAQ hold | 10% | |
35. | Huntingdon | Toss up PQ/CAQ | 4% | |
36. | Brome-Missisquoi | Leaning CAQ hold | 2% | |
37. | Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | QS likely hold | 1% |