Quebec Liberal Party
Last update: December 3, 2025
| Leader | Pablo Rodriguez |
| National popular vote in 2022 | 14.4% |
| Current vote projection | 21.9% ± 2.7% |
| Current number of MNA's | 18 |
| Current seat projection | 33 [29-39] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Vote projection | December 3, 2025
Seat projection | December 3, 2025
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Liberal Party
Last update: December 3, 2025
| Dstricts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Jacques-Cartier | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 2. | Robert-Baldwin | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 3. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 4. | D’Arcy-McGee | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 5. | Nelligan | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 6. | Westmount–Saint-Louis | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 7. | Saint-Laurent | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 8. | Jeanne-Mance–Viger | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 9. | LaFontaine | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 10. | Pontiac | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 11. | Marquette | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 12. | Marguerite-Bourgeoys | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 13. | Chomedey | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 14. | Bourassa-Sauvé | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 15. | Acadie | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 16. | Mont-Royal -Outremont | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 17. | La Pinière | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 18. | Viau | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 19. | Verdun | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 20. | Vaudreuil | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 21. | Fabre | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 22. | Vimont | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 23. | Laporte | ![]() |
Safe LIB | >99% |
| 24. | Mille-Îles | ![]() |
Likely LIB | >99% |
| 25. | Hull | ![]() |
Likely LIB | 99% |
| 26. | Anjou–Louis-Riel | ![]() |
Likely LIB | 99% |
| 27. | Châteauguay | ![]() |
Likely LIB | 99% |
| 28. | Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | ![]() |
Likely LIB | 98% |
| 29. | Soulanges | ![]() |
Likely LIB | 93% |
| 30. | Sainte-Rose | ![]() |
Likely LIB | 92% |
| 31. | Laval-des-Rapides | ![]() |
Leaning LIB | 83% |
| 32. | Chapleau | ![]() |
Leaning LIB | 74% |
| 33. | Huntingdon | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/PQ | 51% |
| 34. | Laurier-Dorion | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/QS | 44% |
| 35. | Brome-Missisquoi | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/PQ | 41% |
| 36. | Papineau | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/PQ | 37% |
| 37. | Gatineau | ![]() |
Toss up LIB/PQ | 34% |
| 38. | Ungava | ![]() |
Leaning PQ | 24% |
| 39. | Orford | ![]() |
Leaning PQ | 16% |
| 40. | Maurice-Richard | ![]() |
Likely PQ | 4% |
| 41. | Vachon | ![]() |
Likely PQ | 2% |
| 42. | La Prairie | ![]() |
Leaning PQ | 2% |



