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Quebec Liberal Party

Latest update: August 12, 2026
LeaderCharles Milliard
National popular vote in 202214.4%
Current vote projection25.0% ± 2.7%
Current number of MNA's18
Current seat projection39 [34-46]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | August 12, 2026 55 50 45 40 35 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% Vote efficiency | LIB 338Canada ©2023 1.9 seat/% [34-46] 25% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | August 12, 2026

19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 22.4% ▼ 25.0% ± 2.7% ▼ Max. 27.7% ▼ Probabilities % LIB August 12, 2026

Seat projection | August 12, 2026

27 32 37 42 47 52 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 34 ▼ 39 ▼ Max. 46 ▼ Probabilities % LIB August 12, 2026

The Road to 64 Seats | Quebec Liberal Party


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 1 JACA 2. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 2 BALD 3. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 3 NODG 4. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 4 WSTL 5. Nelligan Safe LIB 5 NELL 6. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 6 DAMC 7. Pontiac Safe LIB 7 PONT 8. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 8 MARG 9. Marquette Safe LIB 9 MARQ 10. LaFontaine Safe LIB 10 LAFO 11. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 11 BOUS 12. Acadie Safe LIB 12 ACAD 13. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 13 JMVI 14. Chomedey Safe LIB 14 CHOM 15. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 15 StLR 16. La Pinière Safe LIB 16 LAPI 17. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 17 MROU 18. Hull Safe LIB 18 HULL 19. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 19 VAUD 20. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 20 LAPO 21. Mille-Îles Safe LIB 21 MILI 22. Fabre Safe LIB 22 FABR 23. Vimont-Auteuil Safe LIB 23 VIMO 24. Sainte-Rose Safe LIB 24 StRO 25. Châteauguay Safe LIB 25 CHAT 26. Viau Safe LIB 26 VIAU 27. Anjou–Louis-Riel Safe LIB 27 ANLR 28. Soulanges Safe LIB 28 SOUL 29. Verdun Safe LIB 29 VERD 30. Laval-des-Rapides Safe LIB 30 LVDR 31. Orford Safe LIB 31 ORFO 32. Gatineau Likely LIB 32 GATI 33. Brome-Missisquoi Likely LIB 33 BROM 34. Huntingdon Likely LIB 34 HUNT 35. Richmond Leaning LIB 35 RCHM 36. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Leaning LIB 36 SHSA 37. Laurier-Dorion Toss up LIB/QS 37 LAUD 38. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 38 CHAP 39. Papineau Toss up LIB/CAQ 39 PAPI 40. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 40 UNGA 41. Saint-François Toss up LIB/PQ 41 STFR 42. Sherbrooke Toss up LIB/PQ 42 SHER 43. Jean-Talon Toss up LIB/PQ 43 JTAL 44. Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ 44 ABIE 45. Maurice-Richard Leaning PQ 45 MAUR 46. Mégantic Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ/CPQ 46 MEGA 47. Vachon Likely PQ 47 VACH 48. Blainville Leaning PQ 48 BLAI 49. Groulx Leaning PQ 49 GROU 50. Louis-Hébert Toss up PQ/CAQ 50 LHEB 51. La Prairie Toss up PQ/CAQ 51 LAPR 52. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 52 ROSE 53. Montarville Toss up PQ/CAQ 53 MTRV 54. Montmorency PCQ likely 54 MOMO 55. Taillon Likely PQ 55 TAIL 56. Argenteuil Safe PQ 56 ARGE 57. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ 57 DMON 58. Mercier QS safe 58 MERC 59. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 59 LASJ 60. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely 60 SMSJ 61. Saint-Jean Safe PQ 61 StJN 62. La Peltrie PCQ likely 62 LAPE 63. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 63 CAML 64. Bonaventure Safe PQ 64 BONA 65. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 65 IDLM 66. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ 66 MVIC 67. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 67 PATR 68. Gaspé Safe PQ 68 GASP 69. Gouin QS safe 69 GOUI 70. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Toss up PQ/QS 70 HOMA 71. Duplessis Safe PQ 71 DUPL 72. Sanguinet Likely PQ 72 SANG 73. Trois-Rivières Leaning CAQ 73 TRIV 74. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 74 CHPN 75. Repentigny Likely PQ 75 REPE 76. Iberville Toss up PQ/CAQ 76 IBER 77. Chambly Toss up PQ/CAQ 77 CHBY 78. Taschereau Toss up PQ/QS 78 TASH 79. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe PQ 79 StHY 80. Granby Toss up PQ/CAQ 80 GRBY 81. Masson Likely PQ 81 MASS 82. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ 82 LVSM 83. Prévost Safe PQ 83 PREV 84. Vanier-Les Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 84 VALR 85. Beauharnois Toss up PQ/CAQ 85 BEAU 86. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CPQ 86 CÔDS 87. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely PQ 87 ROUY 88. Charlesbourg Toss up PQ/CPQ 88 CHAR 89. Bellefeuille Likely PQ 89 BELF 90. Terrebonne Likely PQ 90 TERR 91. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ likely 91 LOTF 92. Mirabel Leaning PQ 92 MIRA 93. Les Plaines Likely PQ 93 LPLA 94. Bertrand Safe PQ 94 BERT 95. L’Assomption Likely PQ 95 LASS 96. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Toss up PQ/CAQ 96 MLGL 97. Maskinongé Likely PQ 97 MASK 98. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ 98 ABIO 99. Verchères Likely PQ 99 VERC 100. Lévis Toss up CAQ/CPQ 100 LEVI 101. Daniel-Johnson Toss up PQ/CAQ 101 DAJO 102. Roberval Safe PQ 102 ROBV 103. Chauveau PCQ likely 103 CHAU 104. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ 104 StJR 105. Borduas Leaning CAQ 105 BORD 106. Drummond–Bois-Francs Likely PQ 106 DRUM 107. Nicolet-Bécancour Toss up PQ/CAQ 107 NICO 108. Richelieu Safe PQ 108 RCHL 109. Jean-Lesage QS leaning 109 JLES 110. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Likely PQ 110 RDLT 111. Chicoutimi Safe PQ 111 CHIC 112. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ leaning 112 CHCH 113. Labelle Safe PQ 113 LABL 114. Beauce-Nord PCQ safe 114 BEAN 115. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ 115 CXCB 116. Portneuf PCQ likely 116 PORT 117. Beauce-Sud PCQ safe 117 BEAS 118. Bellechasse PCQ safe 118 BELL 119. Rimouski Safe PQ 119 RIMO 120. Arthabaska-L’Érable Likely PQ 120 ARTH 121. René-Lévesque Safe PQ 121 RENE 122. Berthier Safe PQ 122 BRTH 123. Dubuc Safe PQ 123 DUBU 124. Jonquière Safe PQ 124 JONQ 125. Rousseau Likely PQ 125 ROUS 126. Joliette Safe PQ 126 JOLI 127. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 127 MAMA 338Canada Quebec projection Updated August 12, 2026

Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Jacques-Cartier
Greg Kelley
 L Safe LIB
2.
Robert-Baldwin
Brigitte Garceau
 L Safe LIB
3.
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Désirée McGraw
 L Safe LIB
4.
Westmount–Saint-Louis
Jennifer Maccarone
 L Safe LIB
5.
Nelligan
Monsef Derraji
 L Safe LIB
6.
D’Arcy-McGee
Elisabeth Prass
 L Safe LIB
7.
Pontiac
André Fortin
 L Safe LIB
8.
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Fred Beauchemin
 L Safe LIB
9.
Marquette
Enrico Ciccone
 L Safe LIB
10.
LaFontaine
Marc Tanguay
 L Safe LIB
11.
Bourassa-Sauvé
Madwa-Nika Cadet
 L Safe LIB
12.
Acadie
André A. Morin
 L Safe LIB
13.
Jeanne-Mance–Viger
Filomena Rotiroti
 L Safe LIB
14.
Chomedey
Sona Lakhoyan Olivier [Elected as LIB]
 I Safe LIB
15.
Saint-Laurent
Marwah Rizqy [Elected as LIB]
 I Safe LIB
16.
La Pinière
Linda Caron
 L Safe LIB
17.
Mont-Royal–Outremont
Michelle Setlakwe
 L Safe LIB
18.
Hull
Suzanne Tremblay
 CA Safe LIB
19.
Vaudreuil
Marie-Claude Nichols
 L Safe LIB
20.
Pierre-Laporte
Isabelle Poulet [Elected as CAQ]
 I Safe LIB
21.
Mille-Îles
Virginie Dufour
 L Safe LIB
22.
Fabre
Alice Abou-Khalil
 CA Safe LIB
23.
Vimont-Auteuil
Valérie Schmaltz
 CA Safe LIB
24.
Sainte-Rose
Christopher Skeete
 CA Safe LIB
25.
Châteauguay
Marie-Belle Gendron
 CA Safe LIB
26.
Viau
Frantz Benjamin
 L Safe LIB
27.
Anjou–Louis-Riel
Karine Boivin Roy
 CA Safe LIB
28.
Soulanges
Marilyne Picard
 CA Safe LIB
29.
Verdun
Alejandra Zaga-Mendez
 QS Safe LIB
30.
Laval-des-Rapides
Céline Haytayan
 CA Safe LIB
31.
Orford
Gilles Bélanger [Elected as CAQ]
 I Safe LIB
32.
Gatineau
Robert Bussière
 CA Likely LIB
33.
Brome-Missisquoi
Isabelle Charest
 CA Likely LIB
34.
Huntingdon
Carole Mallette
 CA Likely LIB
35.
Richmond
André Bachand
 CA Leaning LIB
36.
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne
Guillaume Cliche-Rivard
 QS Leaning LIB
37.
Laurier-Dorion
Andrès Fontecilla
 QS Toss up LIB/QS
38.
Chapleau
Mathieu Lévesque
 CA Toss up LIB/CAQ
39.
Papineau
Mathieu Lacombe
 CA Toss up LIB/CAQ
40.
Ungava
Denis Lamothe
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ
41.
Saint-François
Geneviève Hébert
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ
42.
Sherbrooke
Christine Labrie
 QS Toss up LIB/PQ
43.
Jean-Talon
Pascal Paradis
 PQ Toss up LIB/PQ
44.
Abitibi-Est
Pierre Dufour [Elected as CAQ]
 I Leaning PQ
45.
Maurice-Richard
Haroun Bouazzi
 QS Leaning PQ
46.
Mégantic
François Jacques
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ/CPQ
47.
Vachon
Ian Lafrenière
 CA Likely PQ
48.
Blainville
Mario Laframboise
 CA Leaning PQ
49.
Groulx
Éric Girard
 CA Leaning PQ
50.
Louis-Hébert
Geneviève Guilbault
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
51.
La Prairie
Christian Dubé [Elected as CAQ]
 I Toss up PQ/CAQ
52.
Rosemont
Vincent Marissal [Elected as QS]
 I Toss up PQ/QS
53.
Montarville
Nathalie Roy
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
54.
Montmorency
Jean-François Simard
 CA PCQ likely
55.
Taillon
Lionel Carmant
 CA Likely PQ
56.
Argenteuil
Agnès Grondin
 CA Safe PQ
57.
Deux-Montagnes
Benoit Charette
 CA Likely PQ
58.
Mercier
Ruba Ghazal
 QS QS safe
59.
Lac-Saint-Jean
Éric Girard
 CA Safe PQ
60.
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques
Manon Massé
 QS QS likely
61.
Saint-Jean
Louis Lemieux
 CA Safe PQ
62.
La Peltrie
Éric Caire
 CA PCQ likely