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Quebec

Quebec Liberal Party





Last update: December 8, 2024

LeaderMarc Tanguay (interim)
National popular vote in 202214.4%
Current vote projection17.0% ± 2.6%
Current number of MNA's19
Current seat projection31 [24-37]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024 45 40 35 30 25 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% Vote efficiency | LIB 338Canada ©2023 2.2 seat/% 31 [24-37] 17% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | December 8, 2024

11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 14.4% 2022 14.4% 17.0% ± 2.6% Max. 19.6% Probabilities % LIB

Seat projection | December 8, 2024

16 21 26 31 36 41 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2022 21 seats Min. 24 31 Max. 37 Probabilities % LIB

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Liberal Party


Last update: December 8, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB hold >99%
2. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB hold >99%
3. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB hold >99%
4. Nelligan Safe LIB hold >99%
5. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB hold >99%
6. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB hold >99%
7. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB hold >99%
8. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB hold >99%
9. Pontiac Safe LIB hold >99%
10. LaFontaine Safe LIB hold >99%
11. Marquette Safe LIB hold >99%
12. Chomedey Safe LIB hold >99%
13. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB hold >99%
14. Vaudreuil Safe LIB hold >99%
15. Acadie Safe LIB hold >99%
16. La Pinière Safe LIB hold >99%
17. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB hold >99%
18. Mont-Royal -Outremont Likely LIB hold >99%
19. Fabre Likely LIB gain 99%
20. Hull Likely LIB gain 98%
21. Mille-Îles Likely LIB hold 98%
22. Vimont Likely LIB gain 98%
23. Laval-des-Rapides Likely LIB gain 92%
24. Sainte-Rose Likely LIB gain 91%
25. Verdun Leaning LIB gain 87%
26. Viau Leaning LIB hold 87%
27. Châteauguay Leaning LIB gain 80%
28. Laporte Leaning LIB gain 80%
29. Anjou–Louis-Riel Toss up LIB/PQ 54%
30. Soulanges Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 45%
31. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 43%
32. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 36%
33. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 35%
34. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 30%
35. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 29%
36. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 24%
37. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne QS likely hold 6%
38. Papineau Likely CAQ hold 1%