Quebec Liberal Party
Last update: March 21, 2024
Leader | Marc Tanguay (interim) |
National popular vote in 2022 | 14.4% |
Current vote projection | 14.7% ± 2.2% |
Current number of MNA's | 19 |
Current seat projection | 26 [20-31] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Vote projection | March 21, 2024
Seat projection | March 21, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Liberal Party
Last update: March 21, 2024
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Jacques-Cartier | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
2. | Robert-Baldwin | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
3. | Nelligan | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
4. | D’Arcy-McGee | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
5. | Pontiac | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
6. | Saint-Laurent | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
7. | Jeanne-Mance–Viger | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
8. | Westmount–Saint-Louis | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
9. | LaFontaine | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
10. | Marquette | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
11. | Marguerite-Bourgeoys | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
12. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
13. | La Pinière | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
14. | Chomedey | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
15. | Vaudreuil | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
16. | Acadie | Safe LIB hold | >99% | |
17. | Bourassa-Sauvé | Likely LIB hold | 97% | |
18. | Mont-Royal -Outremont | Likely LIB hold | 96% | |
19. | Fabre | Likely LIB gain | 95% | |
20. | Mille-Îles | Likely LIB hold | 93% | |
21. | Vimont | Leaning LIB gain | 87% | |
22. | Hull | Leaning LIB gain | 86% | |
23. | Laporte | Leaning LIB gain | 80% | |
24. | Laval-des-Rapides | Toss up LIB/PQ | 64% | |
25. | Sainte-Rose | Toss up LIB/PQ | 58% | |
26. | Châteauguay | Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | 57% | |
27. | Anjou–Louis-Riel | Toss up LIB/PQ | 49% | |
28. | Soulanges | Toss up LIB/PQ | 33% | |
29. | Gatineau | Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | 24% | |
30. | Ungava | Toss up PQ/QS | 7% | |
31. | Viau | QS likely gain | 3% | |
32. | Verdun | QS likely hold | 1% | |
33. | Huntingdon | Toss up PQ/CAQ | 1% |