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Quebec

Quebec Liberal Party





Last update: August 29, 2024

LeaderMarc Tanguay (interim)
National popular vote in 202214.4%
Current vote projection16.4% ± 2.5%
Current number of MNA's19
Current seat projection29 [24-34]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | August 29, 2024 40 35 30 25 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% Vote efficiency | LIB 338Canada ©2023 1.7 seat/% 29 [24-34] 16% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | August 29, 2024

11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 13.9% 2022 14.4% 16.4% ± 2.5% Max. 19.0% Probabilities % LIB

Seat projection | August 29, 2024

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2022 21 seats Min. 24 29 Max. 34 Probabilities % LIB

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Liberal Party


Last update: August 29, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB hold >99%
2. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB hold >99%
3. Nelligan Safe LIB hold >99%
4. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB hold >99%
5. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB hold >99%
6. Pontiac Safe LIB hold >99%
7. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB hold >99%
8. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB hold >99%
9. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB hold >99%
10. LaFontaine Safe LIB hold >99%
11. Chomedey Safe LIB hold >99%
12. Marquette Safe LIB hold >99%
13. La Pinière Safe LIB hold >99%
14. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB hold >99%
15. Vaudreuil Safe LIB hold >99%
16. Acadie Safe LIB hold >99%
17. Fabre Safe LIB gain >99%
18. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB hold >99%
19. Mille-Îles Safe LIB hold >99%
20. Vimont Safe LIB gain >99%
21. Mont-Royal -Outremont Likely LIB hold 98%
22. Laval-des-Rapides Likely LIB gain 97%
23. Hull Likely LIB gain 96%
24. Laporte Likely LIB gain 93%
25. Sainte-Rose Leaning LIB gain 90%
26. Anjou–Louis-Riel Toss up LIB/PQ 70%
27. Viau Toss up LIB/QS 66%
28. Verdun Toss up LIB/QS 59%
29. Châteauguay Toss up LIB/CAQ 59%
30. Gatineau Toss up LIB/CAQ 40%
31. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ/QS 33%
32. Soulanges Leaning CAQ hold 27%
33. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 23%
34. Chapleau Leaning CAQ hold 10%
35. Huntingdon Toss up PQ/CAQ 4%
36. Brome-Missisquoi Leaning CAQ hold 2%
37. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne QS likely hold 1%