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Quebec

Quebec Liberal Party





Last update: June 27, 2025

LeaderPablo Rodriguez
National popular vote in 202214.4%
Current vote projection26.5% ± 3.0%
Current number of MNA's20
Current seat projection41 [36-47]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025 55 50 45 40 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% Vote efficiency | LIB 338Canada ©2023 1.5 seat/% 41 [36-47] 27% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | June 27, 2025

20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 23.5% ▼ 26.5% ± 3.0% ▼ Max. 29.5% ▼ Probabilities % LIB

Seat projection | June 27, 2025

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 36 ▼ 41 ▼ Max. 47 ▼ Probabilities % LIB

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Liberal Party


Last update: June 27, 2025
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB >99%
2. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB >99%
3. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB >99%
4. Nelligan Safe LIB >99%
5. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB >99%
6. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB >99%
7. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB >99%
8. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB >99%
9. Pontiac Safe LIB >99%
10. LaFontaine Safe LIB >99%
11. Marquette Safe LIB >99%
12. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB >99%
13. La Pinière Safe LIB >99%
14. Chomedey Safe LIB >99%
15. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Safe LIB >99%
16. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB >99%
17. Acadie Safe LIB >99%
18. Vaudreuil Safe LIB >99%
19. Mille-Îles Safe LIB >99%
20. Mont-Royal -Outremont Safe LIB >99%
21. Viau Safe LIB >99%
22. Fabre Safe LIB >99%
23. Vimont Safe LIB >99%
24. Verdun Safe LIB >99%
25. Hull Safe LIB >99%
26. Laporte Safe LIB >99%
27. Anjou–Louis-Riel Safe LIB >99%
28. Sainte-Rose Safe LIB >99%
29. Châteauguay Safe LIB >99%
30. Soulanges Safe LIB >99%
31. Laval-des-Rapides Safe LIB >99%
32. Chapleau Safe LIB >99%
33. Brome-Missisquoi Safe LIB >99%
34. Gatineau Safe LIB >99%
35. Huntingdon Safe LIB >99%
36. Papineau Likely LIB >99%
37. Orford Likely LIB >99%
38. Ungava Likely LIB 91%
39. Saint-François Toss up LIB/PQ 58%
40. Maurice-Richard Toss up LIB/PQ 57%
41. Sherbrooke Toss up LIB/QS 51%
42. Richmond Toss up LIB/PQ 48%
43. La Prairie Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 35%
44. Montarville Toss up LIB/PQ 33%
45. Vachon Leaning PQ 21%
46. Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ 21%
47. Laurier-Dorion QS leaning 19%
48. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CPQ 10%
49. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 6%
50. Blainville Likely PQ 3%
51. Groulx Likely PQ 2%
52. Jean-Talon Likely PQ 1%