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Quebec

Quebec Liberal Party





Last update: December 3, 2025

LeaderPablo Rodriguez
National popular vote in 202214.4%
Current vote projection21.9% ± 2.7%
Current number of MNA's18
Current seat projection33 [29-39]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | December 3, 2025 50 45 40 35 30 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% Vote efficiency | LIB 338Canada ©2023 1.6 seat/% [29-39] 22% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | December 3, 2025

16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 19.2% 21.9% ± 2.7% Max. 24.6% Probabilities % LIB December 3, 2025

Seat projection | December 3, 2025

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 29 33 Max. 39 Probabilities % LIB December 3, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Liberal Party


Last update: December 3, 2025
Dstricts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB >99%
2. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB >99%
3. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB >99%
4. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB >99%
5. Nelligan Safe LIB >99%
6. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB >99%
7. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB >99%
8. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB >99%
9. LaFontaine Safe LIB >99%
10. Pontiac Safe LIB >99%
11. Marquette Safe LIB >99%
12. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB >99%
13. Chomedey Safe LIB >99%
14. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB >99%
15. Acadie Safe LIB >99%
16. Mont-Royal -Outremont Safe LIB >99%
17. La Pinière Safe LIB >99%
18. Viau Safe LIB >99%
19. Verdun Safe LIB >99%
20. Vaudreuil Safe LIB >99%
21. Fabre Safe LIB >99%
22. Vimont Safe LIB >99%
23. Laporte Safe LIB >99%
24. Mille-Îles Likely LIB >99%
25. Hull Likely LIB 99%
26. Anjou–Louis-Riel Likely LIB 99%
27. Châteauguay Likely LIB 99%
28. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Likely LIB 98%
29. Soulanges Likely LIB 93%
30. Sainte-Rose Likely LIB 92%
31. Laval-des-Rapides Leaning LIB 83%
32. Chapleau Leaning LIB 74%
33. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ 51%
34. Laurier-Dorion Toss up LIB/QS 44%
35. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ 41%
36. Papineau Toss up LIB/PQ 37%
37. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ 34%
38. Ungava Leaning PQ 24%
39. Orford Leaning PQ 16%
40. Maurice-Richard Likely PQ 4%
41. Vachon Likely PQ 2%
42. La Prairie Leaning PQ 2%