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Quebec Liberal Party

Latest update: September 16, 2026
LeaderCharles Milliard
National popular vote in 202214.4%
Current vote projection21.5% ± 2.6%
Current number of MNA's18
Current seat projection33 [27-40]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | September 16, 2026 45 40 35 30 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% Vote efficiency | LIB 338Canada ©2026 2.1 seat/% [27-40] 22% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | September 16, 2026

16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 19.0% ▼ 21.5% ± 2.6% ▼ Max. 24.1% ▼ Probabilities % LIB September 16, 2026

Seat projection | September 16, 2026

19 24 29 34 39 44 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2022 21 seats Min. 27 ▼ 33 ▼ Max. 40 ▼ Probabilities % LIB September 16, 2026
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The Road to 64 Seats | Quebec Liberal Party


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 1 JACA 2. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 2 BALD 3. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 3 NODG 4. Nelligan Safe LIB 4 NELL 5. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 5 WSTL 6. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 6 DAMC 7. Marquette Safe LIB 7 MARQ 8. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 8 MARG 9. LaFontaine Safe LIB 9 LAFO 10. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 10 BOUS 11. Acadie Safe LIB 11 ACAD 12. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 12 JMVI 13. Pontiac Safe LIB 13 PONT 14. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 14 STLR 15. Chomedey Safe LIB 15 CHOM 16. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 16 MROU 17. La Pinière Safe LIB 17 LAPI 18. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 18 VAUD 19. Hull Safe LIB 19 HULL 20. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 20 LAPO 21. Viau Safe LIB 21 VIAU 22. Mille-Îles Likely LIB 22 MILI 23. Anjou–Louis-Riel Likely LIB 23 ANLR 24. Fabre Likely LIB 24 FABR 25. Châteauguay Likely LIB 25 CHAT 26. Gatineau Likely LIB 26 GATI 27. Vimont-Auteuil Likely LIB 27 VIMO 28. Orford Likely LIB 28 ORFO 29. Soulanges Leaning LIB 29 SOUL 30. Laval-des-Rapides Leaning LIB 30 LVDR 31. Verdun Leaning LIB 31 VERD 32. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/CAQ 32 BROM 33. Sainte-Rose Toss up LIB/CAQ 33 STRO 34. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Toss up LIB/QS 34 SHSA 35. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 35 HUNT 36. Laurier-Dorion Toss up LIB/QS 36 LAUD 37. Richmond Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 37 RCHM 38. Chapleau Leaning CAQ 38 CHAP 39. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 39 UNGA 40. Maurice-Richard Leaning PQ 40 MAUR 41. Papineau Likely CAQ 41 PAPI 42. Sherbrooke Toss up PQ/QS 42 SHER 43. Saint-François Likely PQ 43 STFR 44. Jean-Talon Likely PQ 44 JTAL 45. Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ 45 ABIE 46. Blainville Toss up PQ/CAQ 46 BLAI 47. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 47 MEGA 48. Groulx Toss up PQ/CAQ 48 GROU 49. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 49 ROSE 50. Argenteuil Likely PQ 50 ARGE 51. Vachon Likely PQ 51 VACH 52. La Prairie Leaning CAQ 52 LAPR 53. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely 53 SMSJ 54. Deux-Montagnes Leaning PQ 54 DMON 55. Montarville Leaning CAQ 55 MTRV 56. Louis-Hébert Toss up PQ/CAQ 56 LHEB 57. Mercier QS safe 57 MERC 58. Taillon Likely PQ 58 TAIL 59. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 59 LASJ 60. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 60 CAML 61. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 61 IDLM 62. Bonaventure Safe PQ 62 BONA 63. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 63 PATR 64. Gouin QS safe 64 GOUI 65. Saint-Jean Likely PQ 65 STJN 66. La Peltrie PCQ safe 66 LAPE 67. Gaspé Safe PQ 67 GASP 68. Sanguinet Likely PQ 68 SANG 69. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS leaning 69 HOMA 70. Montmorency PCQ leaning 70 MOMO 71. Marie-Victorin Likely PQ 71 MVIC 72. Repentigny Toss up PQ/CAQ 72 REPE 73. Taschereau QS leaning 73 TASH 74. Masson Toss up PQ/CAQ 74 MASS 75. Champlain Leaning PQ 75 CHPN 76. Prévost Safe PQ 76 PREV 77. Iberville Toss up PQ/CAQ 77 IBER 78. Duplessis Leaning PQ 78 DUPL 79. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ 79 LVSM 80. Terrebonne Toss up PQ/CAQ 80 TERR 81. Trois-Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ 81 TRIV 82. Bellefeuille Likely PQ 82 BELF 83. Chambly Toss up PQ/CAQ 83 CHBY 84. Saint-Hyacinthe Likely PQ 84 STHY 85. Bertrand Likely PQ 85 BERT 86. Les Plaines Toss up PQ/CAQ 86 LPLA 87. Vanier-Les Rivières PCQ leaning 87 VALR 88. Mirabel Toss up PQ/CAQ 88 MIRA 89. L’Assomption Toss up PQ/CAQ 89 LASS 90. Abitibi-Ouest Leaning PQ 90 ABIO 91. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ likely 91 LOTF 92. Charlesbourg PCQ leaning 92 CHAR 93. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 93 CÔDS 94. Beauharnois Toss up PQ/CAQ 94 BEAU 95. Maskinongé Likely PQ 95 MASK 96. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 96 MLGL 97. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Leaning CAQ 97 ROUY 98. Saint-Jérôme Likely PQ 98 STJR 99. Granby Leaning CAQ 99 GRBY 100. Roberval Safe PQ 100 ROBV 101. Verchères Leaning PQ 101 VERC 102. Lévis Toss up CAQ/CPQ 102 LEVI 103. Labelle Safe PQ 103 LABL 104. Drummond–Bois-Francs Leaning PQ 104 DRUM 105. Chauveau PCQ likely 105 CHAU 106. Daniel-Johnson Toss up PQ/CAQ 106 DAJO 107. Borduas Leaning CAQ 107 BORD 108. Chicoutimi Safe PQ 108 CHIC 109. Jean-Lesage Toss up PQ/QS 109 JLES 110. Nicolet-Bécancour Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 110 NICO 111. Richelieu Likely PQ 111 RCHL 112. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ leaning 112 CHCH 113. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Likely PQ 113 RDLT 114. Beauce-Nord PCQ safe 114 BEAN 115. Beauce-Sud PCQ safe 115 BEAS 116. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Likely PQ 116 CXCB 117. Arthabaska-L’Érable Leaning PQ 117 ARTH 118. Rimouski Safe PQ 118 RIMO 119. René-Lévesque Leaning PQ 119 RENE 120. Portneuf PCQ likely 120 PORT 121. Berthier Likely PQ 121 BRTH 122. Dubuc Safe PQ 122 DUBU 123. Bellechasse PCQ safe 123 BELL 124. Jonquière Safe PQ 124 JONQ 125. Joliette Safe PQ 125 JOLI 126. Rousseau Toss up PQ/CAQ 126 ROUS 127. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 127 MAMA 338Canada Quebec projection Updated September 16, 2026
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Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Jacques-Cartier
Greg Kelley
 L Safe LIB
2.
Robert-Baldwin
Brigitte Garceau
 L Safe LIB
3.
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Désirée McGraw
 L Safe LIB
4.
Nelligan
Monsef Derraji
 L Safe LIB
5.
Westmount–Saint-Louis
Jennifer Maccarone
 L Safe LIB
6.
D’Arcy-McGee
Elisabeth Prass
 L Safe LIB
7.
Marquette
Enrico Ciccone
 L Safe LIB
8.
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Fred Beauchemin
 L Safe LIB
9.
LaFontaine
Marc Tanguay
 L Safe LIB
10.
Bourassa-Sauvé
Madwa-Nika Cadet
 L Safe LIB
11.
Acadie
André A. Morin
 L Safe LIB
12.
Jeanne-Mance–Viger
Filomena Rotiroti
 L Safe LIB
13.
Pontiac
André Fortin
 L Safe LIB
14.
Saint-Laurent
Marwah Rizqy [Elected as LIB]
 I Safe LIB
15.
Chomedey
Sona Lakhoyan Olivier [Elected as LIB]
 I Safe LIB
16.
Mont-Royal–Outremont
Michelle Setlakwe
 L Safe LIB
17.
La Pinière
Linda Caron
 L Safe LIB
18.
Vaudreuil
Marie-Claude Nichols
 L Safe LIB
19.
Hull
Suzanne Tremblay
 CA Safe LIB
20.
Pierre-Laporte
Isabelle Poulet [Elected as CAQ]
 I Safe LIB
21.
Viau
Frantz Benjamin
 L Safe LIB
22.
Mille-Îles
Virginie Dufour
 L Likely LIB
23.
Anjou–Louis-Riel
Karine Boivin Roy
 CA Likely LIB
24.
Fabre
Alice Abou-Khalil
 CA Likely LIB
25.
Châteauguay
Marie-Belle Gendron
 CA Likely LIB
26.
Gatineau
Robert Bussière
 CA Likely LIB
27.
Vimont-Auteuil
Valérie Schmaltz
 CA Likely LIB
28.
Orford
Gilles Bélanger [Elected as CAQ]
 I Likely LIB
29.
Soulanges
Marilyne Picard
 CA Leaning LIB
30.
Laval-des-Rapides
Céline Haytayan
 CA Leaning LIB
31.
Verdun
Alejandra Zaga-Mendez
 QS Leaning LIB
32.
Brome-Missisquoi
Isabelle Charest
 CA Toss up LIB/CAQ
33.
Sainte-Rose
Christopher Skeete
 CA Toss up LIB/CAQ
34.
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne
Guillaume Cliche-Rivard
 QS Toss up LIB/QS
35.
Huntingdon
Carole Mallette
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
36.
Laurier-Dorion
Andrès Fontecilla
 QS Toss up LIB/QS
37.
Richmond
André Bachand
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
38.
Chapleau
Mathieu Lévesque
 CA Leaning CAQ
39.
Ungava
Denis Lamothe
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
40.
Maurice-Richard
Haroun Bouazzi
 QS Leaning PQ
41.
Papineau
Mathieu Lacombe
 CA Likely CAQ
42.
Sherbrooke
Christine Labrie
 QS Toss up PQ/QS
43.
Saint-François
Geneviève Hébert
 CA Likely PQ
44.
Jean-Talon
Pascal Paradis
 PQ Likely PQ
45.
Abitibi-Est
Pierre Dufour [Elected as CAQ]
 I Leaning PQ
46.
Blainville
Mario Laframboise
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
47.
Mégantic
François Jacques
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
48.
Groulx
Eric Girard
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
49.
Rosemont
Vincent Marissal [Elected as QS]
 I Toss up PQ/QS
50.
Argenteuil
Agnès Grondin
 CA Likely PQ
51.
Vachon
Ian Lafrenière
 CA Likely PQ
52.
La Prairie
Christian Dubé [Elected as CAQ]
 I Leaning CAQ
53.
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques
Manon Massé
 QS QS likely
54.
Deux-Montagnes
Benoit Charette
 CA Leaning PQ
55.
Montarville
Nathalie Roy
 CA Leaning CAQ
56.
Louis-Hébert
Geneviève Guilbault
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ