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Quebec Liberal Party

Latest update: June 10, 2026
LeaderCharles Milliard
National popular vote in 202214.4%
Current vote projection26.2% ± 2.8%
Current number of MNA's18
Current seat projection40 [35-47]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 10, 2026 60 55 50 45 40 35 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% Vote efficiency | LIB 338Canada ©2023 1.9 seat/% [35-47] 26% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | June 10, 2026

20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 23.3% 26.2% ± 2.8% Max. 29.0% Probabilities % LIB June 10, 2026

Seat projection | June 10, 2026

27 32 37 42 47 52 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 35 40 Max. 47 Probabilities % LIB June 10, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Liberal Party



Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Greg Kelley
L Safe LIB
2.
Brigitte Garceau
L Safe LIB
3.
Désirée McGraw
L Safe LIB
4.
Elisabeth Prass
L Safe LIB
5.
Monsef Derraji
L Safe LIB
6.
Jennifer Maccarone
L Safe LIB
7.
Fred Beauchemin
L Safe LIB
8.
André A. Morin
L Safe LIB
9.
Enrico Ciccone
L Safe LIB
10.
Madwa-Nika Cadet
L Safe LIB
11.
Marc Tanguay
L Safe LIB
12.
André Fortin
L Safe LIB
13.
Filomena Rotiroti
L Safe LIB
14.
Sona Lakhoyan Olivier [Elected as LIB]
I Safe LIB
15.
Marwah Rizqy [Elected as LIB]
I Safe LIB
16.
Frantz Benjamin
L Safe LIB
17.
Michelle Setlakwe
L Safe LIB
18.
Karine Boivin Roy
CA Safe LIB
19.
Alejandra Zaga-Mendez
QS Safe LIB
20.
Linda Caron
L Safe LIB
21.
Marie-Claude Nichols
L Safe LIB
22.
Virginie Dufour
L Safe LIB
23.
Alice Abou-Khalil
CA Safe LIB
24.
Suzanne Tremblay
CA Safe LIB
25.
Valérie Schmaltz
CA Safe LIB
26.
Isabelle Poulet [Elected as CAQ]
I Safe LIB
27.
Christopher Skeete
CA Safe LIB
28.
Marie-Belle Gendron
CA Safe LIB
29.
Céline Haytayan
CA Safe LIB
30.
Guillaume Cliche-Rivard
QS Likely LIB
31.
Marilyne Picard
CA Likely LIB
32.
Robert Bussière
CA Likely LIB
33.
Isabelle Charest
CA Likely LIB
34.
Gilles Bélanger [Elected as CAQ]
I Likely LIB
35.
Andrès Fontecilla
QS Likely LIB
36.
Carole Mallette
CA Likely LIB
37.
Haroun Bouazzi
QS Leaning LIB
38.
Mathieu Lévesque
CA Leaning LIB
39.
Denis Lamothe
CA Leaning LIB
40.
André Bachand
CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
41.
Pascal Paradis
PQ Toss up LIB/PQ
42.
Ian Lafrenière
CA Toss up LIB/PQ
43.
Christine Labrie
QS Toss up LIB/PQ
44.
Mathieu Lacombe
CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
45.
Geneviève Hébert
CA Leaning PQ
46.
Vincent Marissal [Elected as QS]
I Toss up LIB/PQ/QS
47.
Mario Laframboise
CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
48.
François Jacques
CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ/CPQ
49.
Éric Girard
CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
50.
Lionel Carmant
CA Likely PQ
51.
Pierre Dufour [Elected as CAQ]
I Likely PQ
52.
Jean-François Simard
CA Toss up PQ/CPQ
53.
Ruba Ghazal
QS QS likely
54.
Christian Dubé [Elected as CAQ]
I Leaning CAQ
55.
Nathalie Roy
CA Leaning CAQ
56.
Geneviève Guilbault
CA Likely PQ
57.
Éric Caire
CA PCQ likely
58.
Benoit Charette
CA Likely PQ
59.
Louis Lemieux
CA Likely PQ
60. QS QS likely
61.
Éric Girard
CA Safe PQ
62.
Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon
PQ Safe PQ
63.
Shirley Dorismond
CA Likely PQ