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Quebec

Quebec Liberal Party





Last update: December 22, 2022

LeaderMarc Tanguay (interim)
National popular vote in 202214.4%
Current vote projection14.3% ± 2.6%
Current number of MNA's19
Current seat projection21 [15-28]

Vote projection | December 22, 2022

8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 11.7% ▼ 2022 14.4% 14.3% ± 2.6% ▼ Max. 16.9% ▼ Probabilities % LIB

Seat projection | December 22, 2022

7 12 17 22 27 32 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 15 ▼ 2022 21 seats 21 ▼ Max. 28 ▼ Probabilities % LIB

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Liberal Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB hold >99%
2. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB hold >99%
3. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB hold >99%
4. Nelligan Safe LIB hold >99%
5. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB hold >99%
6. LaFontaine Safe LIB hold >99%
7. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB hold >99%
8. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB hold >99%
9. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB hold >99%
10. Marquette Safe LIB hold >99%
11. Acadie Safe LIB hold >99%
12. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB hold >99%
13. Mont-Royal -Outremont Safe LIB hold >99%
14. Pontiac Safe LIB hold >99%
15. Bourassa-Sauvé Likely LIB hold 99%
16. Chomedey Likely LIB hold 94%
17. Viau Leaning LIB hold 86%
18. La Pinière Leaning LIB hold 85%
19. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Leaning LIB hold 76%
20. Vaudreuil Toss up LIB/CAQ 59%
21. Mille-Îles Toss up LIB/CAQ 58%
22. Fabre Toss up LIB/CAQ 44%
23. Verdun Toss up LIB/QS 41%
24. Laporte Toss up LIB/CAQ 38%
25. Laval-des-Rapides Leaning CAQ hold 30%
26. Vimont Leaning CAQ hold 25%
27. Anjou–Louis-Riel Leaning CAQ hold 23%
28. Hull Likely CAQ hold 8%
29. Châteauguay Likely CAQ hold 1%
30. Sainte-Rose Likely CAQ hold 1%
31. Ungava Likely CAQ hold 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB hold
2. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB hold
3. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB hold
4. Nelligan Safe LIB hold
5. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB hold
6. LaFontaine Safe LIB hold
7. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB hold
8. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB hold
9. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB hold
10. Marquette Safe LIB hold
11. Acadie Safe LIB hold
12. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB hold
13. Mont-Royal -Outremont Safe LIB hold
14. Pontiac Safe LIB hold
15. Bourassa-Sauvé Likely LIB hold
16. Chomedey Likely LIB hold
17. Viau Leaning LIB hold
18. La Pinière Leaning LIB hold
19. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Leaning LIB hold
20. Vaudreuil Toss up LIB/CAQ
21. Mille-Îles Toss up LIB/CAQ
22. Fabre Toss up LIB/CAQ
23. Verdun Toss up LIB/QS
24. Laporte Toss up LIB/CAQ
25. Laval-des-Rapides Leaning CAQ hold
26. Vimont Leaning CAQ hold
27. Anjou–Louis-Riel Leaning CAQ hold
28. Hull Likely CAQ hold
29. Châteauguay Likely CAQ hold
30. Sainte-Rose Likely CAQ hold
31. Ungava Likely CAQ hold