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Quebec

Vanier-Les Rivières


MNA: Mario Asselin

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Likely PQ gain
Vanier-Les Rivières 34% ± 6%▲ PQ 27% ± 6%▼ CAQ 18% ± 6%▼ CPQ 11% ± 4% QS 8% ± 3% LIB CAQ 2022 47.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vanier-Les Rivières 96%▲ PQ 4%▼ CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Vanier-Les Rivières

LIB 8% ± 3% PQ 34% ± 6% CAQ 27% ± 6% QS 11% ± 4% CPQ 18% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Vanier-Les Rivières 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 41% CPQ 27% LIB 12% QS 11% PQ 7% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 41% CPQ 30% QS 11% LIB 11% PQ 6% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 40% CPQ 31% QS 11% LIB 10% PQ 6% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 40% CPQ 31% QS 11% LIB 10% PQ 6% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 40% CPQ 31% QS 11% LIB 10% PQ 6% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 40% CPQ 31% LIB 11% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 39% CPQ 31% LIB 11% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 39% CPQ 31% LIB 11% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 39% CPQ 31% LIB 11% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 39% CPQ 31% LIB 11% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 40% CPQ 30% LIB 11% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 40% CPQ 30% LIB 11% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 40% CPQ 30% LIB 11% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 40% CPQ 32% LIB 11% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 39% CPQ 32% LIB 11% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 39% CPQ 33% LIB 10% QS 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 39% CPQ 33% LIB 10% QS 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 39% CPQ 33% LIB 10% QS 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 40% CPQ 33% LIB 10% QS 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 38% CPQ 31% QS 11% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 39% CPQ 31% QS 11% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 39% CPQ 31% QS 11% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 39% CPQ 31% QS 11% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 39% CPQ 31% QS 10% LIB 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 37% CPQ 31% QS 10% LIB 10% PQ 10% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 38% CPQ 31% QS 12% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 38% CPQ 31% QS 12% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 38% CPQ 31% QS 12% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 38% CPQ 32% QS 11% PQ 9% LIB 8% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 41% CPQ 30% QS 11% PQ 9% LIB 8% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 41% CPQ 31% QS 11% PQ 9% LIB 8% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 39% CPQ 30% QS 11% PQ 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 39% CPQ 30% QS 11% PQ 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 41% CPQ 27% QS 11% PQ 11% LIB 8% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 41% CPQ 27% QS 12% PQ 11% LIB 8% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 41% CPQ 27% QS 11% PQ 11% LIB 8% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 41% CPQ 27% QS 11% PQ 11% LIB 8% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 47% CPQ 20% PQ 13% QS 12% LIB 6% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 47% CPQ 18% PQ 15% QS 12% LIB 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 47% CPQ 18% PQ 15% QS 12% LIB 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 47% PQ 17% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 6% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 47% PQ 17% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 6% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 34% PQ 24% CPQ 20% QS 13% LIB 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 33% PQ 30% CPQ 15% QS 14% LIB 6% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 34% PQ 30% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 6% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 33% PQ 30% CPQ 15% QS 12% LIB 6% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 30% PQ 28% CPQ 21% QS 12% LIB 6% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 30% PQ 28% CPQ 21% QS 11% LIB 6% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 31% PQ 28% CPQ 20% QS 11% LIB 7% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 32% CAQ 26% CPQ 20% QS 12% LIB 8% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 33% CAQ 24% CPQ 21% QS 13% LIB 8% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 33% CAQ 22% CPQ 19% QS 16% LIB 8% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 34% CAQ 23% CPQ 19% QS 15% LIB 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 29% CAQ 24% CPQ 22% QS 15% LIB 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 35% CAQ 23% CPQ 17% QS 15% LIB 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 36% CAQ 23% CPQ 18% QS 13% LIB 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 30% CAQ 29% CPQ 17% QS 12% LIB 10% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 30% CAQ 29% CPQ 18% QS 12% LIB 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 30% CAQ 28% CPQ 18% QS 12% LIB 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 33% CAQ 28% CPQ 18% QS 11% LIB 8% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 32% CAQ 28% CPQ 19% QS 11% LIB 8% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 34% CAQ 27% CPQ 18% QS 11% LIB 8% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Vanier-Les Rivières

LIB <1% PQ 96% CAQ 4% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 96% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 91% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 92% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 91% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 92% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 90% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 90% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 90% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 90% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 95% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 95% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 94% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 88% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 88% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 83% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 83% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 83% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 84% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 86% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 88% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 87% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 89% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 88% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 85% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 87% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 87% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 87% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 83% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 94% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 93% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 90% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 94% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 98% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 73% PQ 27% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 76% PQ 24% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 76% PQ 24% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 64% PQ 35% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 64% PQ 35% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 71% PQ 29% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 92% CAQ 8% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 97% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 80% CAQ 15% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 60% CAQ 40% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 56% CAQ 44% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 68% CAQ 32% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 87% CAQ 13% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 83% CAQ 17% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 96% CAQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Vanier-Les Rivières



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 34.5% 45.1% 47.4% 27% ± 6% CPQ 1.3% 3.6% 19.5% 18% ± 6% PQ 15.0% 9.9% 13.1% 34% ± 6% QS 4.6% 12.2% 12.2% 11% ± 4% LIB 43.6% 25.5% 6.3% 8% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.