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Quebec

Vanier-Les Rivières


MNA: Mario Asselin (CAQ)

Latest projection: May 19, 2024
Toss up PQ/CAQ
Vanier-Les Rivières 30% ± 6%▼ PQ 29% ± 6%▲ CAQ 17% ± 5%▼ QCP 12% ± 4%▼ QS 10% ± 4%▲ LIB 2% ± 2%▲ OTH CAQ 2022 47.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vanier-Les Rivières 60%▼ PQ 40%▲ CAQ <1% QCP Odds of winning | May 19, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Vanier-Les Rivières

LIB 10% ± 4% PQ 30% ± 6% CAQ 29% ± 6% QS 12% ± 4% QCP 17% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Vanier-Les Rivières 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP May 19, 2024

Odds of winning | Vanier-Les Rivières

LIB <1% PQ 60% CAQ 40% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS May 19, 2024

Recent electoral history | Vanier-Les Rivières



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 34.5% 45.1% 47.4% 29% ± 6% QCP 1.3% 3.6% 19.5% 17% ± 5% PQ 15.0% 9.9% 13.1% 30% ± 6% QS 4.6% 12.2% 12.2% 12% ± 4% LIB 43.6% 25.5% 6.3% 10% ± 4% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.