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Quebec

Vanier-Les Rivières


MNA: Mario Asselin (CAQ)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
Likely PQ

Vanier-Les Rivières 33% ± 6%▲ PQ 24% ± 6%▼ CPQ 22% ± 5%▼ CAQ 11% ± 4%▲ LIB 8% ± 3%▲ QS CAQ 2022 47.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vanier-Les Rivières 97%▲ PQ 3%▼ CPQ <1%▼ CAQ Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Vanier-Les Rivières

LIB 11% ± 4% PQ 33% ± 6% CAQ 22% ± 5% QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 24% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Vanier-Les Rivières 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 34% CAQ 23% CPQ 19% QS 15% LIB 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 29% CAQ 24% CPQ 22% QS 15% LIB 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 35% CAQ 23% CPQ 17% QS 15% LIB 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 36% CAQ 23% CPQ 18% QS 13% LIB 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 30% CAQ 29% CPQ 17% QS 12% LIB 10% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 30% CAQ 29% CPQ 18% QS 12% LIB 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 30% CAQ 28% CPQ 18% QS 12% LIB 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 33% CAQ 28% CPQ 18% QS 11% LIB 8% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 32% CAQ 28% CPQ 19% QS 11% LIB 8% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 34% CAQ 27% CPQ 18% QS 11% LIB 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 35% CAQ 26% CPQ 19% QS 10% LIB 8% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 34% CAQ 26% CPQ 19% QS 11% LIB 8% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 32% CAQ 25% CPQ 24% LIB 10% QS 8% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 30% CPQ 29% CAQ 22% LIB 10% QS 7% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 29% CPQ 28% CAQ 24% LIB 10% QS 7% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 29% CPQ 28% CAQ 24% LIB 10% QS 7% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 33% CPQ 24% CAQ 22% LIB 11% QS 8% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Vanier-Les Rivières

LIB <1% PQ 97% CAQ <1% CPQ 3% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 99% CAQ 1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 80% CAQ 15% CPQ 5% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 60% CAQ 40% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 56% CAQ 44% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 68% CAQ 32% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 87% CAQ 13% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 83% CAQ 17% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 96% CAQ 4% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 96% CAQ 4% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 91% CAQ 5% CPQ 4% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 58% CPQ 42% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 61% CPQ 35% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 61% CPQ 35% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 97% CPQ 3% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Vanier-Les Rivières



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 34.5% 45.1% 47.4% 22% ± 5% CPQ 1.3% 3.6% 19.5% 24% ± 6% PQ 15.0% 9.9% 13.1% 33% ± 6% QS 4.6% 12.2% 12.2% 8% ± 3% LIB 43.6% 25.5% 6.3% 11% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%