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Quebec

Louis-Hébert


MNA: Geneviève Guilbault

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Likely PQ gain
Louis-Hébert 38% ± 7%▲ PQ 28% ± 6%▼ CAQ 13% ± 5%▼ CPQ 10% ± 4% QS 9% ± 3% LIB CAQ 2022 47.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Louis-Hébert 98%▲ PQ 2%▼ CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Louis-Hébert

LIB 9% ± 3% PQ 38% ± 7% CAQ 28% ± 6% QS 10% ± 4% CPQ 13% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Louis-Hébert 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 46% CPQ 22% LIB 13% QS 10% PQ 9% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 46% CPQ 24% LIB 11% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 45% CPQ 25% LIB 11% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 45% CPQ 25% LIB 11% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 45% CPQ 25% LIB 11% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 45% CPQ 25% LIB 11% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 45% CPQ 25% LIB 11% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 45% CPQ 25% LIB 11% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 45% CPQ 25% LIB 11% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 44% CPQ 25% LIB 11% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 46% CPQ 23% LIB 11% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 46% CPQ 23% LIB 11% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 46% CPQ 23% LIB 11% PQ 9% QS 9% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 45% CPQ 25% LIB 11% PQ 8% QS 8% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 45% CPQ 25% LIB 11% PQ 8% QS 8% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 45% CPQ 26% LIB 11% PQ 8% QS 8% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 45% CPQ 26% LIB 11% PQ 8% QS 8% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 45% CPQ 26% LIB 11% PQ 8% QS 8% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 45% CPQ 26% LIB 11% PQ 8% QS 7% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 44% CPQ 25% LIB 11% QS 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 44% CPQ 25% LIB 11% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 44% CPQ 25% LIB 11% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 45% CPQ 25% LIB 11% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 45% CPQ 25% LIB 11% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 43% CPQ 24% PQ 11% LIB 11% QS 9% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 44% CPQ 25% PQ 11% QS 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 44% CPQ 25% PQ 11% QS 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 44% CPQ 25% PQ 11% QS 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 44% CPQ 25% PQ 11% QS 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 46% CPQ 25% QS 10% PQ 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 46% CPQ 25% PQ 10% QS 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 44% CPQ 24% PQ 12% QS 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 45% CPQ 24% PQ 11% QS 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 45% CPQ 24% PQ 11% QS 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 45% CPQ 23% PQ 11% QS 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 45% CPQ 23% PQ 12% QS 10% LIB 8% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 45% CPQ 23% PQ 12% QS 10% LIB 8% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 47% PQ 17% CPQ 15% QS 12% LIB 9% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 47% PQ 19% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 9% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 47% PQ 19% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 9% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 46% PQ 21% QS 13% CPQ 11% LIB 9% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 46% PQ 21% QS 13% CPQ 11% LIB 8% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 35% PQ 28% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 9% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 34% PQ 34% QS 14% CPQ 9% LIB 8% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 34% PQ 34% QS 14% CPQ 9% LIB 8% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 34% PQ 33% QS 13% CPQ 9% LIB 8% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 32% CAQ 31% CPQ 15% QS 12% LIB 8% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 33% CAQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 8% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 33% CAQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 9% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 37% CAQ 26% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 10% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 39% CAQ 23% CPQ 14% QS 12% LIB 10% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 38% CAQ 23% QS 14% CPQ 13% LIB 9% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 39% CAQ 25% QS 13% CPQ 13% LIB 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 31% CAQ 30% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 37% CAQ 27% QS 14% CPQ 11% LIB 10% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 37% CAQ 29% QS 12% CPQ 11% LIB 10% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 32% CAQ 32% CPQ 12% LIB 11% QS 10% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 32% PQ 32% CPQ 13% LIB 11% QS 10% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 33% CAQ 31% CPQ 14% LIB 10% QS 10% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 36% CAQ 30% CPQ 13% QS 10% LIB 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 36% CAQ 30% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 38% CAQ 28% CPQ 13% QS 10% LIB 9% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Louis-Hébert

LIB <1% PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 88% PQ 12% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 52% PQ 48% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 52% PQ 48% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 53% PQ 47% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 51% CAQ 49% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 68% CAQ 32% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 60% CAQ 40% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 61% CAQ 39% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 94% CAQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 52% CAQ 48% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 52% PQ 48% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 61% CAQ 39% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 87% CAQ 13% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 90% CAQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Louis-Hébert



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 25.9% 44.6% 47.2% 28% ± 6% PQ 18.4% 12.4% 16.5% 38% ± 7% CPQ 0.8% 2.3% 14.6% 13% ± 5% QS 4.9% 11.1% 12.0% 10% ± 4% LIB 49.2% 26.6% 8.7% 9% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.