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Recent electoral history | Johnson


2014 2018 2022 Projection PQ 36% ± 7% 31.2% 13.1% 14.4% CAQ 20% ± 6% 36.1% 53.0% 52.5% CPQ 18% ± 5% 0.7% 1.6% 15.1% LIB 14% ± 4% 23.7% 11.1% 3.5% QS 9% ± 4% 6.3% 17.9% 13.8%

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338Canada Johnson projection

Latest update: March 5, 2026

Johnson 29% 43% 36% ± 7% PQ 14% 25% 20% ± 6% CAQ 13% 23% 18% ± 5% CPQ 10% 19% 14% ± 4% LIB 6% 13% 9% ± 4% QS CAQ 2022 52.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Johnson >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Johnson

LIB 14% ± 4% PQ 36% ± 7% CAQ 20% ± 6% QS 9% ± 4% CPQ 18% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Johnson 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 5, 2026 2025-03-05 CAQ 34% PQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 7% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 36% PQ 31% CPQ 13% QS 10% LIB 7% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 36% PQ 31% CPQ 13% QS 10% LIB 7% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 35% CAQ 32% CPQ 13% QS 11% LIB 8% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 33% CAQ 29% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 10% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 32% CAQ 29% CPQ 15% LIB 12% QS 10% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 33% CAQ 29% CPQ 15% LIB 12% QS 9% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ 36% CAQ 29% CPQ 14% LIB 11% QS 8% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ 39% CAQ 25% CPQ 15% LIB 11% QS 8% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ 40% CAQ 25% CPQ 14% LIB 11% QS 8% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ 39% CAQ 27% CPQ 15% LIB 11% QS 7% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ 36% CAQ 29% CPQ 15% LIB 11% QS 7% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ 41% CAQ 26% CPQ 15% LIB 9% QS 7% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ 38% CAQ 29% CPQ 16% LIB 9% QS 7% 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 PQ 37% CAQ 23% CPQ 19% LIB 10% QS 9% 2026-01-14 2026-02-03 PQ 36% CAQ 24% CPQ 17% LIB 12% QS 9% 2026-02-03 2026-02-27 PQ 37% CAQ 20% CPQ 19% LIB 12% QS 9% 2026-02-27 2026-03-05 PQ 36% CAQ 20% CPQ 18% LIB 14% QS 9% 2026-03-05 Rodriguez PLQ leader Zanetti QS co-leader Rodriguez resigns Legault resigns Milliard PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Johnson

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 5, 2026 2025-03-05 CAQ 61% PQ 39% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 82% PQ 18% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 82% PQ 18% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 73% CAQ 27% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 81% CAQ 19% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 77% CAQ 23% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 81% CAQ 19% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ 93% CAQ 7% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ 99% CAQ 1% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ 92% CAQ 8% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ 95% CAQ 5% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2026-01-14 2026-02-03 PQ 99% CAQ 1% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2026-02-03 2026-02-27 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2026-02-27 2026-03-05 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2026-03-05 Rodriguez PLQ leader Zanetti QS co-leader Rodriguez resigns Legault resigns Milliard PLQ leader
90% 10% 46% ± 6% 54% ± 6% Projection of support for sovereignty | Johnson YES NO 338Canada March 5, 2026


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Demographic data | Johnson

Canadian Census, 2021
Language 97.4% French 1.0% English 0.8% Spanish 0.3% Arabic 0.1% Mandarin 0.1% Swahili 0.0% PortugueseJohnsonSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 17.8% No diploma 20.0% High school 27.6% Trade 18.4% College / Cégep 2.8% Some university 9.4% Bachelor's 4.0% PostgraduateJohnsonSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 96.4% Not visible minority 3.6% Visible minority 1.4% Black 1.0% Latin American 0.7% Arab 0.2% Southeast Asian 0.1% Chinese 0.1% South AsianJohnsonSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 64.6% Catholic 26.7% No Religion 5.6% Christian (n.o.s.) 1.0% Muslim 0.7% Other Christian 0.4% Baptist 0.3% Jehovah's Witness 0.2% PentecostalJohnsonSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 64.8% Owner 35.2% RenterJohnsonSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 62.1% Employed 34.4% Not in labour force 3.5% UnemployedJohnsonSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 98.2% Non-Indigenous 1.7% Indigenous identity 1.1% First Nations 0.5% Metis 0.1% Others 0.1% MultipleJohnsonSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 92.8% Car / truck / van 4.3% Walking 1.3% Other 0.8% Bicycle 0.8% Public transitJohnsonSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.