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Quebec

Johnson


MNA: André Lamontagne (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Leaning CAQ hold
Johnson 35% ± 6% CAQ 32% ± 6%▼ PQ 13% ± 4% CPQ 11% ± 4%▼ QS 7% ± 3%▲ LIB CAQ 2022 52.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Johnson 71%▲ CAQ 29%▼ PQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Johnson

LIB 7% ± 3% PQ 32% ± 6% CAQ 35% ± 6% QS 11% ± 4% CPQ 13% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Johnson 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 52% CPQ 15% PQ 14% QS 14% LIB 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 52% PQ 17% CPQ 14% QS 14% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 52% PQ 17% CPQ 14% QS 14% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 51% PQ 18% QS 16% CPQ 11% LIB 3% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 51% PQ 18% QS 16% CPQ 11% LIB 3% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 46% PQ 25% QS 15% CPQ 11% LIB 3% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 47% PQ 26% QS 15% CPQ 10% LIB 2% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 47% PQ 26% QS 15% CPQ 10% LIB 2% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 50% PQ 23% QS 14% CPQ 10% LIB 2% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 46% PQ 21% QS 15% CPQ 14% LIB 3% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 46% PQ 21% QS 15% CPQ 14% LIB 3% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 38% PQ 29% QS 15% CPQ 13% LIB 3% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 35% PQ 30% QS 16% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 35% PQ 32% QS 17% CPQ 12% LIB 3% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 33% PQ 33% QS 16% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 36% PQ 32% QS 15% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 37% PQ 30% QS 15% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 35% PQ 32% QS 16% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 36% PQ 33% QS 13% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 35% PQ 32% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 36% PQ 33% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 35% PQ 33% QS 13% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 35% PQ 32% QS 13% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 35% PQ 34% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 34% PQ 34% CPQ 12% QS 12% LIB 5% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 35% CAQ 33% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 5% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 35% PQ 33% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 35% PQ 32% CPQ 13% QS 11% LIB 7% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Johnson

LIB <1% PQ 29% CAQ 71% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 96% PQ 4% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 83% PQ 17% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 72% PQ 28% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 54% PQ 46% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 76% PQ 24% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 92% PQ 8% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 71% PQ 29% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 71% PQ 29% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 72% PQ 28% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 76% PQ 24% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 65% PQ 35% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 73% PQ 27% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 56% PQ 44% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 50% PQ 50% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 68% CAQ 32% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 66% PQ 34% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 71% PQ 29% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Johnson



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 36.1% 53.0% 52.5% 35% ± 6% CPQ 0.7% 1.6% 15.1% 13% ± 4% PQ 31.2% 13.1% 14.4% 32% ± 6% QS 6.3% 17.9% 13.8% 11% ± 4% LIB 23.7% 11.1% 3.5% 7% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%