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Quebec


Johnson


MNA: André Lamontagne (CAQ)


Latest projection: December 7 2023

Leaning CAQ hold
Johnson 35% ± 7% 32% ± 7%▲ 17% ± 5%▲ 12% ± 5%▼ 3% ± 2%▼ CAQ 2022 52.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 7 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Johnson 72%▼ 28%▲ <1% Odds of winning | December 7 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Johnson

PQ 32% ± 7% CAQ 35% ± 7% QS 17% ± 5% QCP 12% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Johnson 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Johnson

LIB <1% PQ 28% CAQ 72% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Johnson



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 36.1% 53.0% 52.5% 35% ± 7% QCP 0.7% 1.6% 15.1% 12% ± 5% PQ 31.2% 13.1% 14.4% 32% ± 7% QS 6.3% 17.9% 13.8% 17% ± 5% LIB 23.7% 11.1% 3.5% 3% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%