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Quebec

Johnson


MNA: André Lamontagne (CAQ)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
Leaning PQ

Johnson 35% ± 6%▲ PQ 32% ± 6%▼ CAQ 13% ± 4% CPQ 11% ± 4%▲ QS 8% ± 3%▲ LIB CAQ 2022 52.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Johnson 73%▲ PQ 27%▼ CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Johnson

LIB 8% ± 3% PQ 35% ± 6% CAQ 32% ± 6% QS 11% ± 4% CPQ 13% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Johnson 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 36% PQ 32% QS 15% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 37% PQ 30% QS 15% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 35% PQ 32% QS 16% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 36% PQ 33% QS 13% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 35% PQ 32% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 36% PQ 33% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 35% PQ 33% QS 13% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 35% PQ 32% QS 13% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 35% PQ 34% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 34% PQ 34% CPQ 12% QS 12% LIB 5% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 35% CAQ 33% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 5% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 35% PQ 33% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 35% PQ 32% CPQ 13% QS 11% LIB 7% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CAQ 34% PQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 7% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 36% PQ 31% CPQ 13% QS 10% LIB 7% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 36% PQ 31% CPQ 13% QS 10% LIB 7% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 35% CAQ 32% CPQ 13% QS 11% LIB 8% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Johnson

LIB <1% PQ 73% CAQ 27% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 76% PQ 24% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 92% PQ 8% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 71% PQ 29% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 71% PQ 29% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 72% PQ 28% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 76% PQ 24% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 65% PQ 35% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 73% PQ 27% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 56% PQ 44% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 50% PQ 50% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 68% CAQ 32% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 66% PQ 34% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 71% PQ 29% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CAQ 61% PQ 39% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 82% PQ 18% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 82% PQ 18% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 73% CAQ 27% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Johnson



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 36.1% 53.0% 52.5% 32% ± 6% CPQ 0.7% 1.6% 15.1% 13% ± 4% PQ 31.2% 13.1% 14.4% 35% ± 6% QS 6.3% 17.9% 13.8% 11% ± 4% LIB 23.7% 11.1% 3.5% 8% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%