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Quebec

Duplessis


MNA: Kateri Champagne Jourdain

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Safe PQ gain
Duplessis 49% ± 8%▼ PQ 22% ± 7%▲ CAQ 14% ± 6%▲ CPQ 7% ± 4% QS 6% ± 4% LIB CAQ 2022 45.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Duplessis >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Duplessis

LIB 6% ± 4% PQ 49% ± 8% CAQ 22% ± 7% QS 7% ± 4% CPQ 14% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Duplessis 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 38% PQ 25% CPQ 14% LIB 11% QS 11% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 38% PQ 25% CPQ 15% QS 11% LIB 10% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 37% PQ 23% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 10% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 37% PQ 23% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 10% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 37% PQ 23% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 10% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 37% PQ 23% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 10% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 37% PQ 23% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 10% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 37% PQ 23% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 10% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 37% PQ 23% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 10% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 36% PQ 24% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 10% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 36% PQ 24% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 10% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 36% PQ 24% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 10% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 36% PQ 24% CPQ 18% LIB 10% QS 10% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 36% PQ 23% CPQ 20% LIB 10% QS 9% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 36% PQ 23% CPQ 20% LIB 10% QS 9% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 36% PQ 23% CPQ 21% LIB 10% QS 9% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 36% PQ 23% CPQ 21% LIB 10% QS 9% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 36% PQ 23% CPQ 21% LIB 10% QS 9% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 36% PQ 22% CPQ 21% LIB 10% QS 8% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 34% PQ 24% CPQ 20% QS 10% LIB 10% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 35% PQ 23% CPQ 20% QS 10% LIB 10% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 35% PQ 23% CPQ 20% QS 10% LIB 10% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 35% PQ 23% CPQ 20% QS 10% LIB 10% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 35% PQ 23% CPQ 20% QS 10% LIB 10% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 33% PQ 26% CPQ 20% QS 10% LIB 9% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 33% PQ 26% CPQ 20% QS 11% LIB 8% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 33% PQ 25% CPQ 20% QS 11% LIB 8% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 34% PQ 25% CPQ 20% QS 11% LIB 8% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 34% PQ 26% CPQ 18% QS 11% LIB 9% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 36% PQ 25% CPQ 18% QS 11% LIB 9% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 36% PQ 25% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 9% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 34% PQ 27% CPQ 18% QS 11% LIB 9% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 35% PQ 27% CPQ 18% QS 11% LIB 9% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 35% PQ 27% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 9% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 35% PQ 27% CPQ 17% QS 11% LIB 9% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 35% PQ 27% CPQ 17% QS 11% LIB 9% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 37% PQ 26% CPQ 17% QS 10% LIB 9% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 45% PQ 25% CPQ 16% QS 9% LIB 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 44% PQ 28% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 44% PQ 28% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 43% PQ 30% CPQ 11% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 43% PQ 30% CPQ 11% QS 11% LIB 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 PQ 39% CAQ 37% CPQ 10% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ 41% CAQ 37% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ 41% CAQ 37% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 40% PQ 36% CPQ 10% QS 9% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 37% PQ 34% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 3% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 37% PQ 34% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 3% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 39% CAQ 33% CPQ 13% QS 9% LIB 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 41% CAQ 31% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 44% CAQ 29% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 46% CAQ 26% CPQ 12% QS 11% LIB 4% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 46% CAQ 27% CPQ 12% QS 9% LIB 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 44% CAQ 29% CPQ 13% QS 9% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 46% CAQ 27% CPQ 12% QS 9% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 48% CAQ 26% CPQ 12% QS 8% LIB 6% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 45% CAQ 25% CPQ 14% LIB 7% QS 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 46% CAQ 26% CPQ 13% LIB 7% QS 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 47% CAQ 25% CPQ 13% QS 7% LIB 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 45% CAQ 25% CPQ 14% QS 8% LIB 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 46% CAQ 24% CPQ 15% QS 7% LIB 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 50% CAQ 22% CPQ 13% QS 7% LIB 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 51% CAQ 20% CPQ 13% QS 7% LIB 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 49% CAQ 22% CPQ 14% QS 7% LIB 6% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Duplessis

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 97% PQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 98% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 98% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 96% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 97% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 88% PQ 11% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 89% PQ 11% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 90% PQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 91% PQ 9% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 90% PQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 97% PQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 97% PQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 86% PQ 14% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 90% PQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 90% PQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 90% PQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 90% PQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 96% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 97% PQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 97% PQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 PQ 64% CAQ 36% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ 70% CAQ 30% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ 70% CAQ 30% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 72% PQ 28% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 70% PQ 30% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 70% PQ 30% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 81% CAQ 19% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 94% CAQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Duplessis



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 13.0% 33.7% 45.1% 22% ± 7% PQ 40.0% 34.3% 24.8% 49% ± 8% CPQ 0.0% 1.8% 15.7% 14% ± 6% QS 6.7% 12.4% 9.4% 7% ± 4% LIB 38.2% 17.9% 4.0% 6% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.