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Quebec

Duplessis


MNA: Kateri Champagne Jourdain (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Safe PQ gain
Duplessis 47% ± 8%▼ PQ 22% ± 7% CAQ 14% ± 6% CPQ 8% ± 4%▲ LIB 6% ± 4%▼ QS CAQ 2022 45.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Duplessis >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Duplessis

LIB 8% ± 4% PQ 47% ± 8% CAQ 22% ± 7% QS 6% ± 4% CPQ 14% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Duplessis 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 45% PQ 25% CPQ 16% QS 9% LIB 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 44% PQ 28% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 44% PQ 28% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 43% PQ 30% CPQ 11% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 43% PQ 30% CPQ 11% QS 11% LIB 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 PQ 39% CAQ 37% CPQ 10% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ 41% CAQ 37% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ 41% CAQ 37% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 40% PQ 36% CPQ 10% QS 9% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 37% PQ 34% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 3% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 37% PQ 34% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 3% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 39% CAQ 33% CPQ 13% QS 9% LIB 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 41% CAQ 31% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 44% CAQ 29% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 46% CAQ 26% CPQ 12% QS 11% LIB 4% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 46% CAQ 27% CPQ 12% QS 9% LIB 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 44% CAQ 29% CPQ 13% QS 9% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 46% CAQ 27% CPQ 12% QS 9% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 48% CAQ 26% CPQ 12% QS 8% LIB 6% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 45% CAQ 25% CPQ 14% LIB 7% QS 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 46% CAQ 26% CPQ 13% LIB 7% QS 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 47% CAQ 25% CPQ 13% QS 7% LIB 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 45% CAQ 25% CPQ 14% QS 8% LIB 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 46% CAQ 24% CPQ 15% QS 7% LIB 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 50% CAQ 22% CPQ 13% QS 7% LIB 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 51% CAQ 20% CPQ 13% QS 7% LIB 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 49% CAQ 22% CPQ 14% QS 7% LIB 6% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 47% CAQ 22% CPQ 14% LIB 8% QS 6% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Duplessis

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 98% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 98% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 97% PQ 3% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 97% PQ 3% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 PQ 64% CAQ 36% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ 70% CAQ 30% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ 70% CAQ 30% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 72% PQ 28% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 70% PQ 30% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 70% PQ 30% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 81% CAQ 19% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 94% CAQ 6% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Duplessis



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 13.0% 33.7% 45.1% 22% ± 7% PQ 40.0% 34.3% 24.8% 47% ± 8% CPQ 0.0% 1.8% 15.7% 14% ± 6% QS 6.7% 12.4% 9.4% 6% ± 4% LIB 38.2% 17.9% 4.0% 8% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%