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Quebec

Island of Montreal, 27 districts


Latest update: May 16, 2025
Island of Montreal 42% ± 7%▲ LIB 21% ± 4% PQ 17% ± 4%▼ QS 9% ± 3%▼ CPQ 8% ± 2%▼ CAQ 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Island of Montreal, 27 districts 18 [18-18] LIB 5 [4-6] QS 4 [3-5] PQ 0 [0-0] CPQ 338Canada seat projection | May 16, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Island of Montreal

LIB 42% ± 7% PQ 21% ± 4% CAQ 8% ± 2% QS 17% ± 4% CPQ 9% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Island of Montreal 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB 31% QS 26% PQ 21% CAQ 11% CPQ 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 30% QS 26% PQ 21% CAQ 11% CPQ 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 30% QS 27% PQ 22% CAQ 11% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 34% QS 24% PQ 22% CAQ 10% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 35% QS 22% PQ 22% CAQ 10% CPQ 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 35% QS 23% PQ 22% CAQ 10% CPQ 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 34% QS 23% PQ 22% CAQ 10% CPQ 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 33% QS 24% PQ 21% CAQ 10% CPQ 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 34% QS 22% PQ 22% CPQ 10% CAQ 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 34% PQ 24% QS 22% CPQ 10% CAQ 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 34% PQ 24% QS 22% CPQ 10% CAQ 8% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 34% PQ 23% QS 22% CPQ 10% CAQ 8% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 39% PQ 21% QS 19% CPQ 10% CAQ 8% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 41% PQ 22% QS 17% CPQ 10% CAQ 8% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 41% PQ 21% QS 17% CPQ 10% CAQ 9% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB 40% PQ 21% QS 18% CPQ 10% CAQ 9% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 42% PQ 21% QS 17% CPQ 9% CAQ 8% 2025-05-16 Ghazal QS co-leader

Seat projection | Island of Montreal

LIB 18 [18-18] PQ 4 [3-5] QS 5 [4-6] Seat projection | Island of Montreal 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ QS May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB 15 QS 10 PQ 2 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 15 QS 10 PQ 2 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 14 QS 10 PQ 3 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 17 QS 8 PQ 2 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 17 QS 8 PQ 2 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 17 QS 8 PQ 2 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 17 QS 8 PQ 2 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 17 QS 8 PQ 2 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 17 QS 8 PQ 2 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 17 QS 7 PQ 3 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 17 QS 7 PQ 3 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 17 QS 7 PQ 3 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 18 QS 5 PQ 4 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 18 QS 5 PQ 4 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 18 QS 5 PQ 4 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB 18 QS 5 PQ 4 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 18 QS 5 PQ 4 2025-05-16 Ghazal QS co-leader

Seat projection | Island of Montreal


Latest update: May 16, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
17 1 0 0 18 16
1 3 1 0 5 8
2 0 1 1 4 1
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 2

List of electoral districts | Island of Montreal


Latest update: May 16, 2025
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
Acadie Safe LIB
Anjou–Louis-Riel Likely LIB
Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB
Camille-Laurin Safe PQ
D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB
Gouin QS safe
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS leaning
Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB
Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB
LaFontaine Safe LIB
Laurier-Dorion QS likely
Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB
Marquette Safe LIB
Maurice-Richard Leaning PQ
Mercier QS likely
Mont-Royal -Outremont Safe LIB
Nelligan Safe LIB
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB
Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ
Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB
Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Safe LIB
Saint-Laurent Safe LIB
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely
Verdun Safe LIB
Viau Safe LIB
Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB