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Quebec

Recent electoral history | Prévost


2014 2018 2022 Projection PQ 48% ± 8% 34.6% 24.5% 19.6% LIB 17% ± 5% 24.5% 12.8% 6.0% CAQ 14% ± 5% 32.9% 47.0% 46.2% CPQ 13% ± 4% 0.0% 1.0% 11.7% QS 7% ± 3% 6.8% 14.0% 15.1%

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338Canada Prévost projection

Latest update: March 5, 2026

Prévost 40% 55% 48% ± 8% PQ 12% 21% 17% ± 5% LIB 9% 18% 14% ± 5% CAQ 8% 17% 13% ± 4% CPQ 4% 11% 7% ± 3% QS CAQ 2022 46.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Prévost >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% CAQ Odds of winning | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Prévost

LIB 17% ± 5% PQ 48% ± 8% CAQ 14% ± 5% QS 7% ± 3% CPQ 13% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Prévost 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 5, 2026 2025-03-05 PQ 44% CAQ 23% CPQ 11% LIB 11% QS 10% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 42% CAQ 25% CPQ 10% LIB 10% QS 10% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 48% CAQ 23% CPQ 10% QS 9% LIB 8% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 52% CAQ 20% CPQ 9% QS 9% LIB 8% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 50% CAQ 18% LIB 11% CPQ 10% QS 9% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 48% CAQ 18% LIB 13% CPQ 11% QS 8% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 49% CAQ 18% LIB 12% CPQ 11% QS 8% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ 52% CAQ 18% LIB 11% CPQ 10% QS 7% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ 56% CAQ 14% LIB 12% CPQ 10% QS 6% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ 56% CAQ 14% LIB 12% CPQ 10% QS 6% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ 55% CAQ 15% LIB 11% CPQ 10% QS 6% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ 52% CAQ 17% LIB 12% CPQ 11% QS 6% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ 58% CAQ 15% CPQ 11% LIB 9% QS 5% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ 54% CAQ 19% CPQ 11% LIB 9% QS 5% 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 PQ 51% CAQ 15% CPQ 14% LIB 11% QS 8% 2026-01-14 2026-02-03 PQ 51% CAQ 15% LIB 12% CPQ 12% QS 7% 2026-02-03 2026-02-27 PQ 49% CAQ 14% LIB 14% CPQ 14% QS 7% 2026-02-27 2026-03-05 PQ 48% LIB 17% CAQ 14% CPQ 13% QS 7% 2026-03-05 Rodriguez PLQ leader Zanetti QS co-leader Rodriguez resigns Legault resigns Milliard PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Prévost

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 5, 2026 2025-03-05 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2026-01-14 2026-02-03 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2026-02-03 2026-02-27 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2026-02-27 2026-03-05 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2026-03-05 Rodriguez PLQ leader Zanetti QS co-leader Rodriguez resigns Legault resigns Milliard PLQ leader
53% 47% 50% ± 6% 50% ± 6% Projection of support for sovereignty | Prévost YES NO 338Canada March 5, 2026


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Demographic data | Prévost

Canadian Census, 2021
Language 95.0% French 4.2% English 0.3% Spanish 0.1% Romanian 0.1% Russian 0.1% Arabic 0.0% ItalianPrévostSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 11.3% No diploma 18.8% High school 24.1% Trade 20.7% College / Cégep 4.5% Some university 14.4% Bachelor's 6.2% PostgraduatePrévostSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 98.2% Not visible minority 1.8% Visible minority 0.5% Black 0.4% Arab 0.3% Latin American 0.2% Chinese 0.1% Southeast Asian 0.1% FilipinoPrévostSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 57.2% Catholic 35.6% No Religion 3.7% Christian (n.o.s.) 0.7% Other Christian 0.5% Orthodox 0.4% Jehovah's Witness 0.4% Jewish 0.4% AnglicanPrévostSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 79.3% Owner 20.7% RenterPrévostSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 59.9% Employed 35.5% Not in labour force 4.5% UnemployedPrévostSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 98.2% Non-Indigenous 1.8% Indigenous identity 0.9% First Nations 0.7% Metis 0.1% MultiplePrévostSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 95.6% Car / truck / van 1.8% Walking 1.6% Other 0.7% Public transit 0.2% BicyclePrévostSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.