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Quebec

Jonquière


MNA: Yannick Gagnon

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Likely PQ gain
Jonquière 45% ± 7%▼ PQ 34% ± 7%▲ CAQ 8% ± 4% QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 3% ± 2% LIB 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 59.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Jonquière 98%▼ PQ 2%▲ CAQ <1% QS Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Jonquière

PQ 45% ± 7% CAQ 34% ± 7% QS 8% ± 4% CPQ 8% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Jonquière 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 42% PQ 30% CPQ 16% QS 6% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 42% PQ 29% CPQ 17% QS 6% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 41% PQ 26% CPQ 20% QS 6% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 41% PQ 26% CPQ 20% QS 6% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 41% PQ 26% CPQ 20% QS 6% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 41% PQ 26% CPQ 20% QS 6% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 40% PQ 26% CPQ 20% QS 6% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 40% PQ 26% CPQ 20% QS 6% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 40% PQ 27% CPQ 20% QS 6% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 39% PQ 28% CPQ 20% QS 6% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 40% PQ 28% CPQ 20% QS 6% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 40% PQ 28% CPQ 20% QS 6% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 39% PQ 29% CPQ 20% QS 5% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 39% PQ 27% CPQ 22% QS 5% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 39% PQ 27% CPQ 22% QS 5% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 39% PQ 27% CPQ 23% QS 5% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 52% PQ 20% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 52% PQ 20% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 52% PQ 19% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 50% PQ 21% CPQ 14% QS 9% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 51% PQ 20% CPQ 14% QS 9% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 51% PQ 20% CPQ 14% QS 9% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 52% PQ 20% CPQ 14% QS 9% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 52% PQ 20% CPQ 14% QS 9% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 49% PQ 23% CPQ 15% QS 9% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 50% PQ 21% CPQ 15% QS 9% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 50% PQ 21% CPQ 15% QS 9% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 51% PQ 21% CPQ 15% QS 9% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 51% PQ 21% CPQ 15% QS 9% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 53% PQ 19% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 53% PQ 19% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 44% PQ 32% CPQ 13% QS 7% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 45% PQ 32% CPQ 13% QS 7% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 45% PQ 32% CPQ 13% QS 7% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 45% PQ 32% CPQ 12% QS 7% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 45% PQ 32% CPQ 12% QS 7% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 45% PQ 31% CPQ 12% QS 7% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 59% PQ 19% CPQ 10% QS 9% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 58% PQ 22% QS 9% CPQ 8% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 58% PQ 22% QS 9% CPQ 8% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 57% PQ 24% QS 10% CPQ 7% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 57% PQ 24% QS 10% CPQ 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 50% PQ 32% QS 10% CPQ 6% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 51% PQ 33% QS 9% CPQ 5% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 51% PQ 33% QS 9% CPQ 5% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 54% PQ 29% QS 9% CPQ 5% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 50% PQ 28% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 50% PQ 28% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 41% PQ 37% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 39% CAQ 39% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 41% CAQ 38% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 42% CAQ 35% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 41% CAQ 37% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 39% PQ 38% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 40% CAQ 37% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 42% CAQ 37% QS 9% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 41% CAQ 36% CPQ 8% QS 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 42% CAQ 37% QS 8% CPQ 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 43% CAQ 36% QS 9% CPQ 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 42% CAQ 36% QS 9% CPQ 8% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 43% CAQ 35% QS 8% CPQ 8% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 47% CAQ 32% QS 8% CPQ 7% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 48% CAQ 31% QS 8% CPQ 8% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 45% CAQ 34% QS 8% CPQ 8% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Jonquière

LIB <1% PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 95% PQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 95% PQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 96% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 96% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 95% PQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 96% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 96% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 96% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 95% PQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 97% PQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 97% PQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 97% PQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 96% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 97% PQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 73% PQ 27% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 54% CAQ 46% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 72% CAQ 28% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 86% CAQ 14% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 69% CAQ 31% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 55% PQ 45% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 71% CAQ 29% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 81% CAQ 19% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 79% CAQ 21% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 80% CAQ 20% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 88% CAQ 12% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 83% CAQ 17% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 92% CAQ 8% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Jonquière



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 23.6% 32.5% 59.4% 34% ± 7% PQ 43.5% 48.4% 19.3% 45% ± 7% CPQ 0.0% 1.1% 9.6% 8% ± 3% QS 5.2% 7.3% 9.1% 8% ± 4% LIB 26.6% 9.8% 2.1% 3% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.