logo
logo
Quebec

Jonquière


MNA: Yannick Gagnon (CAQ)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
Safe PQ

Jonquière 51% ± 7%▲ PQ 24% ± 6%▼ CAQ 9% ± 4%▼ CPQ 8% ± 3% QS 5% ± 3% LIB CAQ 2022 59.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Jonquière >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Jonquière

LIB 5% ± 3% PQ 51% ± 7% CAQ 24% ± 6% QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Jonquière 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 41% CAQ 37% QS 11% CPQ 8% LIB 2% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 39% PQ 38% QS 11% CPQ 8% LIB 2% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 40% CAQ 37% QS 11% CPQ 8% LIB 2% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 42% CAQ 37% QS 9% CPQ 8% LIB 3% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 41% CAQ 36% CPQ 8% QS 8% LIB 3% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 42% CAQ 37% QS 8% CPQ 8% LIB 3% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 43% CAQ 36% QS 9% CPQ 8% LIB 3% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 42% CAQ 36% QS 9% CPQ 8% LIB 2% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 43% CAQ 35% QS 8% CPQ 8% LIB 2% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 47% CAQ 32% QS 8% CPQ 7% LIB 2% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 48% CAQ 31% QS 8% CPQ 8% LIB 3% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 45% CAQ 34% QS 8% CPQ 8% LIB 3% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 48% CAQ 27% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 5% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 49% CAQ 26% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 5% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 47% CAQ 28% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 5% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 47% CAQ 28% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 5% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 51% CAQ 24% CPQ 9% QS 8% LIB 5% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Jonquière

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 69% CAQ 31% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 55% PQ 45% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 71% CAQ 29% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 81% CAQ 19% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 79% CAQ 21% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 80% CAQ 20% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 88% CAQ 12% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 83% CAQ 17% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 92% CAQ 8% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Jonquière



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 23.6% 32.5% 59.4% 24% ± 6% PQ 43.5% 48.4% 19.3% 51% ± 7% CPQ 0.0% 1.1% 9.6% 9% ± 4% QS 5.2% 7.3% 9.1% 8% ± 3% LIB 26.6% 9.8% 2.1% 5% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%