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Quebec

Labelle


MNA: Chantal Jeannotte (CAQ)

Latest projection: March 18, 2025
Safe PQ gain
Labelle 51% ± 7%▲ PQ 25% ± 6%▼ CAQ 8% ± 3% CPQ 8% ± 3%▼ QS 6% ± 3%▼ LIB CAQ 2022 53.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Labelle >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | March 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Labelle

LIB 6% ± 3% PQ 51% ± 7% CAQ 25% ± 6% QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 8% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Labelle 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 43% CAQ 29% QS 14% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 41% CAQ 30% QS 14% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 43% CAQ 28% QS 14% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 45% CAQ 29% QS 12% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 43% CAQ 29% QS 11% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 44% CAQ 29% QS 11% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 45% CAQ 28% QS 11% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 44% CAQ 29% QS 12% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 45% CAQ 28% QS 11% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 49% CAQ 25% QS 11% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 50% CAQ 24% QS 11% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 47% CAQ 26% QS 11% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 46% CAQ 26% QS 10% CPQ 8% LIB 8% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 47% CAQ 25% CPQ 9% QS 9% LIB 8% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 45% CAQ 27% QS 9% CPQ 8% LIB 8% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 51% CAQ 25% CPQ 8% QS 8% LIB 6% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Labelle

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 97% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Labelle



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 21.1% 36.6% 53.1% 25% ± 6% PQ 45.2% 34.7% 19.1% 51% ± 7% QS 8.0% 15.1% 12.3% 8% ± 3% CPQ 0.0% 0.8% 9.5% 8% ± 3% LIB 25.0% 10.9% 5.0% 6% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%