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Quebec

Camille-Laurin


MNA: Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon (PQ)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Safe PQ

Recent electoral history | Camille-Laurin


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PQ 55% ± 8% 37.8% 26.0% 41.7% LIB 21% ± 6% 28.9% 18.9% 16.5% CAQ 8% ± 3% 19.6% 27.6% 31.9% CPQ 8% ± 3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% QS 7% ± 3% 11.2% 24.4% 0.0%




338Canada projection for Camille-Laurin


Camille-Laurin 55% ± 8%▼ PQ 21% ± 6%▲ LIB 8% ± 3% CAQ 8% ± 3%▲ CPQ 7% ± 3%▼ QS PQ 2022 41.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Camille-Laurin >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% CAQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Camille-Laurin

LIB 21% ± 6% PQ 55% ± 8% CAQ 8% ± 3% QS 7% ± 3% CPQ 8% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Camille-Laurin 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 62% QS 11% CAQ 11% LIB 9% CPQ 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 62% CAQ 11% QS 11% LIB 9% CPQ 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 63% QS 11% CAQ 11% LIB 9% CPQ 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 64% CAQ 11% LIB 11% QS 10% CPQ 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 61% LIB 12% CAQ 10% QS 9% CPQ 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 61% LIB 12% CAQ 10% QS 9% CPQ 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 62% LIB 12% CAQ 10% QS 9% CPQ 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 61% LIB 12% QS 10% CAQ 10% CPQ 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 61% LIB 12% CAQ 9% QS 9% CPQ 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 63% LIB 12% QS 9% CAQ 8% CPQ 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 63% LIB 12% QS 9% CAQ 8% CPQ 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 63% LIB 12% QS 9% CAQ 8% CPQ 7% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 59% LIB 16% CAQ 9% QS 8% CPQ 7% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 60% LIB 16% CAQ 8% CPQ 7% QS 7% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 59% LIB 16% CAQ 9% QS 7% CPQ 7% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 60% LIB 15% CAQ 9% QS 7% CPQ 7% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 59% LIB 16% CAQ 9% QS 7% CPQ 7% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 57% LIB 18% CAQ 8% QS 8% CPQ 7% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 55% LIB 21% CAQ 8% CPQ 8% QS 7% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Camille-Laurin

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader