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Quebec

Camille-Laurin


MNA: Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon (PQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Safe PQ hold
Camille-Laurin 59% ± 7%▼ PQ 16% ± 5%▲ LIB 9% ± 4%▲ CAQ 8% ± 3%▼ QS 7% ± 3% CPQ PQ 2022 41.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Camille-Laurin >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% CAQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Camille-Laurin

LIB 16% ± 5% PQ 59% ± 7% CAQ 9% ± 4% QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 7% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Camille-Laurin 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 PQ 42% CAQ 32% LIB 16% CPQ 7% QS 0% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 PQ 43% CAQ 31% LIB 16% CPQ 6% QS 0% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 PQ 43% CAQ 31% LIB 16% CPQ 6% QS 0% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 PQ 46% CAQ 31% LIB 16% CPQ 5% QS 0% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 PQ 43% CAQ 26% QS 15% LIB 11% CPQ 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 PQ 45% CAQ 26% QS 14% LIB 11% CPQ 3% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ 50% CAQ 24% QS 13% LIB 9% CPQ 2% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ 50% CAQ 24% QS 13% LIB 9% CPQ 2% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 49% CAQ 24% QS 12% LIB 8% CPQ 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 45% CAQ 22% LIB 12% QS 12% CPQ 6% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 45% CAQ 22% LIB 12% QS 12% CPQ 6% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 47% CAQ 22% LIB 12% QS 10% CPQ 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 49% CAQ 21% LIB 12% QS 10% CPQ 5% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 59% CAQ 13% LIB 11% QS 10% CPQ 5% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 61% QS 12% CAQ 10% LIB 9% CPQ 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 62% QS 11% CAQ 11% LIB 9% CPQ 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 62% CAQ 11% QS 11% LIB 9% CPQ 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 63% QS 11% CAQ 11% LIB 9% CPQ 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 64% CAQ 11% LIB 11% QS 10% CPQ 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 61% LIB 12% CAQ 10% QS 9% CPQ 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 61% LIB 12% CAQ 10% QS 9% CPQ 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 62% LIB 12% CAQ 10% QS 9% CPQ 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 61% LIB 12% QS 10% CAQ 10% CPQ 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 61% LIB 12% CAQ 9% QS 9% CPQ 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 63% LIB 12% QS 9% CAQ 8% CPQ 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 63% LIB 12% QS 9% CAQ 8% CPQ 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 63% LIB 12% QS 9% CAQ 8% CPQ 7% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 59% LIB 16% CAQ 9% QS 8% CPQ 7% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Camille-Laurin

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 PQ 94% CAQ 6% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 PQ 94% CAQ 6% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Camille-Laurin



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PQ 37.8% 26.0% 41.7% 59% ± 7% CAQ 19.6% 27.6% 31.9% 9% ± 4% LIB 28.9% 18.9% 16.5% 16% ± 5% CPQ 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 7% ± 3% QS 11.2% 24.4% 0.0% 8% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%