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Quebec

Maurice-Richard


MNA: Haroun Bouazzi (QS)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Leaning PQ gain
Maurice-Richard 31% ± 7%▼ PQ 26% ± 7%▼ QS 23% ± 6%▲ LIB 13% ± 4%▲ CAQ 6% ± 3% CPQ QS 2022 34.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Maurice-Richard 78%▲ PQ 18%▼ QS 3%▲ LIB Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Maurice-Richard

LIB 23% ± 6% PQ 31% ± 7% CAQ 13% ± 4% QS 26% ± 7% CPQ 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Maurice-Richard 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 QS 35% CAQ 27% LIB 17% PQ 15% CPQ 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS 34% CAQ 27% LIB 17% PQ 15% CPQ 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS 34% CAQ 27% LIB 17% PQ 15% CPQ 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS 36% CAQ 26% LIB 17% PQ 16% CPQ 3% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 37% CAQ 26% PQ 16% LIB 16% CPQ 3% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS 37% CAQ 27% PQ 17% LIB 16% CPQ 2% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 36% CAQ 27% PQ 19% LIB 15% CPQ 2% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 36% CAQ 27% PQ 19% LIB 15% CPQ 2% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 34% CAQ 27% PQ 19% LIB 14% CPQ 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS 34% CAQ 26% PQ 17% LIB 16% CPQ 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS 34% CAQ 26% PQ 17% LIB 16% CPQ 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS 32% CAQ 26% PQ 18% LIB 16% CPQ 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS 32% PQ 23% CAQ 22% LIB 17% CPQ 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 34% PQ 32% LIB 15% CAQ 14% CPQ 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 39% PQ 32% LIB 13% CAQ 11% CPQ 4% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 37% PQ 33% LIB 13% CAQ 12% CPQ 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 37% PQ 33% LIB 12% CAQ 12% CPQ 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 38% PQ 32% CAQ 13% LIB 12% CPQ 3% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS 35% PQ 33% LIB 15% CAQ 13% CPQ 3% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 33% PQ 32% LIB 18% CAQ 12% CPQ 4% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 33% PQ 32% LIB 17% CAQ 12% CPQ 3% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 34% PQ 32% LIB 17% CAQ 12% CPQ 3% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS 35% PQ 31% LIB 16% CAQ 12% CPQ 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 33% PQ 32% LIB 16% CAQ 11% CPQ 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 34% QS 32% LIB 17% CAQ 10% CPQ 5% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 34% QS 32% LIB 17% CAQ 10% CPQ 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 34% QS 32% LIB 17% CAQ 10% CPQ 6% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 31% QS 26% LIB 23% CAQ 13% CPQ 6% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Maurice-Richard

LIB 3% PQ 78% CAQ <1% QS 18% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 QS 98% CAQ 2% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS 87% CAQ 13% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS 87% CAQ 13% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS 96% CAQ 4% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 97% CAQ 3% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS 97% CAQ 3% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 96% CAQ 4% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 96% CAQ 4% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 91% CAQ 8% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS 93% CAQ 7% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS 93% CAQ 7% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS 89% CAQ 11% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS 95% PQ 4% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 66% PQ 34% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 89% PQ 11% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 75% PQ 25% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 75% PQ 25% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 84% PQ 16% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS 65% PQ 35% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 55% PQ 45% LIB <1% CAQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 57% PQ 43% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 62% PQ 38% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS 75% PQ 25% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 52% PQ 48% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 65% QS 35% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 67% QS 33% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 63% QS 37% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 78% QS 18% LIB 3% CAQ <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Maurice-Richard



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 13.7% 27.9% 34.7% 26% ± 7% CAQ 13.7% 19.7% 27.2% 13% ± 4% LIB 39.0% 29.5% 17.2% 23% ± 6% PQ 31.6% 19.1% 14.7% 31% ± 7% CPQ 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 6% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%