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Quebec

Maurice-Richard


MNA: Haroun Bouazzi

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Toss up PQ/QS
Maurice-Richard 34% ± 7%▲ PQ 32% ± 7%▼ QS 17% ± 5%▲ LIB 10% ± 4%▼ CAQ 5% ± 3%▼ CPQ QS 2022 34.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Maurice-Richard 65%▲ PQ 35%▼ QS <1% LIB Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Maurice-Richard

LIB 17% ± 5% PQ 34% ± 7% CAQ 10% ± 4% QS 32% ± 7% CPQ 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Maurice-Richard 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 32% QS 26% LIB 22% PQ 11% CPQ 8% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 32% QS 26% LIB 21% PQ 10% CPQ 9% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 31% QS 26% LIB 21% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 31% QS 26% LIB 21% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 31% QS 26% LIB 21% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 31% QS 26% LIB 21% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 31% QS 26% LIB 21% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 31% QS 26% LIB 21% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 31% QS 25% LIB 21% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 31% QS 25% LIB 21% CPQ 10% PQ 10% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 29% QS 28% LIB 21% PQ 10% CPQ 8% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 29% QS 29% LIB 18% PQ 14% CPQ 7% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 29% QS 28% LIB 18% PQ 14% CPQ 7% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 29% QS 29% LIB 18% PQ 14% CPQ 7% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 29% QS 29% LIB 18% PQ 14% CPQ 7% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 29% QS 29% LIB 18% PQ 14% CPQ 7% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 30% QS 28% LIB 18% PQ 14% CPQ 7% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 31% QS 28% LIB 18% PQ 13% CPQ 7% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 31% QS 28% LIB 18% PQ 13% CPQ 7% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 QS 31% CAQ 30% LIB 16% PQ 14% CPQ 7% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 QS 31% CAQ 30% LIB 16% PQ 13% CPQ 7% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 QS 31% CAQ 30% LIB 16% PQ 13% CPQ 7% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 31% QS 31% LIB 16% PQ 14% CPQ 6% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 31% QS 30% LIB 16% PQ 14% CPQ 6% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 QS 30% CAQ 29% PQ 18% LIB 15% CPQ 6% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 QS 30% CAQ 29% PQ 17% LIB 15% CPQ 6% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 QS 30% CAQ 29% PQ 17% LIB 15% CPQ 6% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 QS 30% CAQ 30% PQ 18% LIB 14% CPQ 6% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 QS 30% CAQ 30% PQ 17% LIB 14% CPQ 6% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 31% QS 30% PQ 16% LIB 14% CPQ 6% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 31% QS 30% PQ 16% LIB 14% CPQ 6% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 QS 30% CAQ 30% PQ 18% LIB 14% CPQ 6% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 QS 30% CAQ 29% PQ 18% LIB 14% CPQ 6% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 QS 30% CAQ 30% PQ 18% LIB 14% CPQ 6% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 QS 30% CAQ 30% PQ 18% LIB 14% CPQ 6% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 QS 30% CAQ 30% PQ 19% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 30% QS 30% PQ 20% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 QS 35% CAQ 27% LIB 17% PQ 15% CPQ 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS 34% CAQ 27% LIB 17% PQ 15% CPQ 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS 34% CAQ 27% LIB 17% PQ 15% CPQ 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS 36% CAQ 26% LIB 17% PQ 16% CPQ 3% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 37% CAQ 26% PQ 16% LIB 16% CPQ 3% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS 37% CAQ 27% PQ 17% LIB 16% CPQ 2% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 36% CAQ 27% PQ 19% LIB 15% CPQ 2% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 36% CAQ 27% PQ 19% LIB 15% CPQ 2% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 34% CAQ 27% PQ 19% LIB 14% CPQ 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS 34% CAQ 26% PQ 17% LIB 16% CPQ 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS 34% CAQ 26% PQ 17% LIB 16% CPQ 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS 32% CAQ 26% PQ 18% LIB 16% CPQ 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS 32% PQ 23% CAQ 22% LIB 17% CPQ 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 34% PQ 32% LIB 15% CAQ 14% CPQ 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 39% PQ 32% LIB 13% CAQ 11% CPQ 4% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 37% PQ 33% LIB 13% CAQ 12% CPQ 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 37% PQ 33% LIB 12% CAQ 12% CPQ 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 38% PQ 32% CAQ 13% LIB 12% CPQ 3% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS 35% PQ 33% LIB 15% CAQ 13% CPQ 3% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 33% PQ 32% LIB 18% CAQ 12% CPQ 4% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 33% PQ 32% LIB 17% CAQ 12% CPQ 3% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 34% PQ 32% LIB 17% CAQ 12% CPQ 3% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS 35% PQ 31% LIB 16% CAQ 12% CPQ 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 33% PQ 32% LIB 16% CAQ 11% CPQ 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 34% QS 32% LIB 17% CAQ 10% CPQ 5% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Maurice-Richard

LIB <1% PQ 65% CAQ <1% QS 35% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 81% QS 17% LIB 1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 85% QS 15% LIB 1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 83% QS 16% LIB 1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 83% QS 16% LIB 1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 83% QS 16% LIB 1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 83% QS 16% LIB 1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 81% QS 18% LIB 2% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 81% QS 17% LIB 2% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 82% QS 16% LIB 2% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 83% QS 15% LIB 2% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 56% QS 42% LIB 2% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 56% QS 44% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 57% QS 42% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 53% QS 47% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 53% QS 47% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 54% QS 46% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 59% QS 41% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 67% QS 33% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 70% QS 30% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 QS 58% CAQ 42% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 QS 54% CAQ 46% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 QS 52% CAQ 48% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 QS 50% CAQ 50% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 53% QS 47% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 QS 52% CAQ 48% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 QS 52% CAQ 48% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 QS 51% CAQ 49% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 QS 51% CAQ 49% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 QS 50% CAQ 50% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 56% QS 44% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 60% QS 40% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 QS 51% CAQ 48% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 QS 54% CAQ 46% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 QS 51% CAQ 49% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 QS 51% CAQ 49% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 QS 51% CAQ 49% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 53% QS 47% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 QS 98% CAQ 2% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS 87% CAQ 13% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS 87% CAQ 13% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS 96% CAQ 4% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 97% CAQ 3% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS 97% CAQ 3% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 96% CAQ 4% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 96% CAQ 4% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 91% CAQ 8% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS 93% CAQ 7% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS 93% CAQ 7% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS 89% CAQ 11% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS 95% PQ 4% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 66% PQ 34% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 89% PQ 11% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 75% PQ 25% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 75% PQ 25% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 84% PQ 16% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS 65% PQ 35% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 55% PQ 45% LIB <1% CAQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 57% PQ 43% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 62% PQ 38% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS 75% PQ 25% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 52% PQ 48% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 65% QS 35% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Maurice-Richard



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 13.7% 27.9% 34.7% 32% ± 7% CAQ 13.7% 19.7% 27.2% 10% ± 4% LIB 39.0% 29.5% 17.2% 17% ± 5% PQ 31.6% 19.1% 14.7% 34% ± 7% CPQ 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 5% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.