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Quebec

Laviolette-Saint-Maurice


MNA: Marie-Louise Tardif (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Likely PQ

Recent electoral history | Laviolette-Saint-Maurice


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PQ 36% ± 7% 27.8% 15.7% 16.0% CAQ 24% ± 6% 23.6% 45.4% 51.7% CPQ 16% ± 5% 0.6% 1.8% 16.7% LIB 15% ± 4% 42.3% 20.8% 5.0% QS 7% ± 3% 5.0% 15.1% 9.5%




338Canada projection for Laviolette-Saint-Maurice


Laviolette-Saint-Maurice 36% ± 7%▼ PQ 24% ± 6%▼ CAQ 16% ± 5%▲ CPQ 15% ± 4%▲ LIB 7% ± 3% QS CAQ 2022 51.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Laviolette-Saint-Maurice 99%▼ PQ 1%▲ CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Laviolette-Saint-Maurice

LIB 15% ± 4% PQ 36% ± 7% CAQ 24% ± 6% QS 7% ± 3% CPQ 16% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Laviolette-Saint-Maurice 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 36% CAQ 32% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 34% CAQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 36% CAQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 6% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 36% CAQ 34% CPQ 13% QS 9% LIB 6% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 34% CAQ 33% CPQ 15% QS 8% LIB 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 35% CAQ 34% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 36% CAQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 35% CAQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 7% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 36% CAQ 32% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 39% CAQ 30% CPQ 13% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 40% CAQ 28% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 38% CAQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 37% CAQ 30% CPQ 14% LIB 9% QS 8% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 37% CAQ 29% CPQ 16% LIB 9% QS 7% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 36% CAQ 31% CPQ 15% LIB 9% QS 7% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 36% CAQ 31% CPQ 15% LIB 9% QS 7% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 40% CAQ 27% CPQ 14% LIB 9% QS 7% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 38% CAQ 25% CPQ 15% LIB 13% QS 7% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 36% CAQ 24% CPQ 16% LIB 15% QS 7% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Laviolette-Saint-Maurice

LIB <1% PQ 99% CAQ 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 78% CAQ 22% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 55% CAQ 45% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 82% CAQ 18% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 65% CAQ 35% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 64% CAQ 36% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 60% CAQ 40% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 73% CAQ 27% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 64% CAQ 36% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 79% CAQ 21% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 97% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 94% CAQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 91% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 95% CAQ 5% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 85% CAQ 15% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 85% CAQ 15% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader