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Quebec

Laviolette-Saint-Maurice


MNA: Marie-Louise Tardif (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Likely PQ gain
Laviolette-Saint-Maurice 37% ± 7%▼ PQ 30% ± 6%▼ CAQ 14% ± 5% CPQ 9% ± 3%▲ LIB 8% ± 3%▼ QS CAQ 2022 51.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Laviolette-Saint-Maurice 91%▼ PQ 9%▲ CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Laviolette-Saint-Maurice

LIB 9% ± 3% PQ 37% ± 7% CAQ 30% ± 6% QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 14% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Laviolette-Saint-Maurice 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 52% CPQ 17% PQ 16% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 51% PQ 18% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 51% PQ 18% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 51% PQ 20% CPQ 13% QS 11% LIB 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 51% PQ 20% CPQ 12% QS 11% LIB 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 45% PQ 28% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 46% PQ 29% CPQ 11% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 46% PQ 29% CPQ 11% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 49% PQ 25% CPQ 11% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 45% PQ 23% CPQ 15% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 45% PQ 23% CPQ 15% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 36% PQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 35% CAQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 5% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 37% CAQ 33% CPQ 13% QS 11% LIB 5% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 37% CAQ 30% CPQ 14% QS 12% LIB 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 36% CAQ 32% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 34% CAQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 36% CAQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 6% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 36% CAQ 34% CPQ 13% QS 9% LIB 6% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 34% CAQ 33% CPQ 15% QS 8% LIB 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 35% CAQ 34% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 36% CAQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 35% CAQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 7% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 36% CAQ 32% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 39% CAQ 30% CPQ 13% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 40% CAQ 28% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 38% CAQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 37% CAQ 30% CPQ 14% LIB 9% QS 8% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Laviolette-Saint-Maurice

LIB <1% PQ 91% CAQ 9% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 67% PQ 33% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 63% CAQ 37% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 76% CAQ 24% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 91% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 78% CAQ 22% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 55% CAQ 45% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 82% CAQ 18% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 65% CAQ 35% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 64% CAQ 36% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 60% CAQ 40% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 73% CAQ 27% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 64% CAQ 36% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 79% CAQ 21% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 97% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 94% CAQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 91% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Laviolette-Saint-Maurice



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 23.6% 45.4% 51.7% 30% ± 6% CPQ 0.6% 1.8% 16.7% 14% ± 5% PQ 27.8% 15.7% 16.0% 37% ± 7% QS 5.0% 15.1% 9.5% 8% ± 3% LIB 42.3% 20.8% 5.0% 9% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%