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Quebec

Côte-du-Sud


MNA: Mathieu Rivest (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Leaning PQ gain
Côte-du-Sud 31% ± 6%▼ PQ 26% ± 6% CAQ 22% ± 6%▲ CPQ 11% ± 4%▲ LIB 8% ± 3%▼ QS CAQ 2022 47.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Côte-du-Sud 85%▼ PQ 14%▲ CAQ 1% CPQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Côte-du-Sud

LIB 11% ± 4% PQ 31% ± 6% CAQ 26% ± 6% QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 22% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Côte-du-Sud 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 48% CPQ 23% PQ 13% QS 9% LIB 6% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 48% CPQ 21% PQ 15% QS 9% LIB 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 48% CPQ 21% PQ 15% QS 9% LIB 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 48% CPQ 18% PQ 16% QS 11% LIB 6% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 48% CPQ 18% PQ 17% QS 11% LIB 6% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 34% PQ 25% CPQ 23% QS 10% LIB 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 36% PQ 26% CPQ 22% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 36% PQ 26% CPQ 22% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 39% PQ 22% CPQ 22% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 37% CPQ 25% PQ 20% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 36% CPQ 24% PQ 22% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 36% CPQ 24% PQ 23% QS 9% LIB 7% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 34% PQ 24% CPQ 23% QS 10% LIB 8% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 30% PQ 27% CPQ 24% QS 11% LIB 7% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 27% CAQ 27% CPQ 25% QS 11% LIB 8% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 28% PQ 27% CPQ 25% QS 10% LIB 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 29% PQ 26% CPQ 25% QS 10% LIB 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 28% CAQ 28% CPQ 23% QS 11% LIB 9% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 29% CAQ 28% CPQ 24% QS 9% LIB 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 28% PQ 28% CPQ 23% LIB 10% QS 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 29% PQ 28% CPQ 22% LIB 10% QS 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 29% CAQ 28% CPQ 22% LIB 9% QS 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 28% CAQ 28% CPQ 23% QS 10% LIB 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 30% CAQ 28% CPQ 23% LIB 9% QS 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 33% CAQ 26% CPQ 21% LIB 10% QS 9% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 34% CAQ 24% CPQ 21% LIB 10% QS 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 32% CAQ 26% CPQ 21% LIB 10% QS 9% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 31% CAQ 26% CPQ 22% LIB 11% QS 8% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Côte-du-Sud

LIB <1% PQ 85% CAQ 14% CPQ 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 95% PQ 4% CPQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 97% PQ 3% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 98% PQ 2% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 95% CPQ 3% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 68% PQ 26% CPQ 6% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 44% CAQ 35% CPQ 21% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 49% PQ 36% CPQ 15% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 65% CPQ 17% PQ 17% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 48% CAQ 44% CPQ 8% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 49% CAQ 44% CPQ 8% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 46% PQ 45% CPQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 52% PQ 45% CPQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 56% CAQ 40% CPQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 48% CAQ 47% CPQ 5% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 64% CAQ 32% CPQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 93% CAQ 6% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 97% CAQ 2% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 88% CAQ 11% CPQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 85% CAQ 14% CPQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Côte-du-Sud



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 23.3% 53.5% 47.7% 26% ± 6% CPQ 0.8% 1.7% 23.4% 22% ± 6% PQ 19.1% 10.1% 12.8% 31% ± 6% QS 5.5% 11.1% 9.3% 8% ± 3% LIB 49.9% 21.9% 6.3% 11% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%