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The Road to 47 Seats

Less likely More likely Majority: 47 seats Langford-Highlands NDP safe LFHL Vancouver-Renfrew NDP safe V-REN Vancouver-Strathcona NDP safe V-STR Port Coquitlam NDP safe POCQ Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP safe MIPR Esquimalt-Colwood NDP safe ESQC Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe V-HAS Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe VI-SL Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP safe NAGA Juan de Fuca-Malahat NDP safe JUAN Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP safe POWR Vancouver-West End NDP safe V-WE Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe OAKB North Coast-Haida Gwaii NDP safe NCHG Saanich South NDP safe SAAS Burnaby-New Westminster NDP safe BU-NW Surrey City Centre NDP safe SU-CC Vancouver-South Granville NDP safe V-SG Kootenay-Monashee NDP safe KOOM Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP likely VI-BH Vancouver-Kensington NDP likely V-KEN Surrey North NDP likely SU-N Burnaby East NDP likely BU-E Courtenay-Comox NDP likely COCO North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP likely NVLO Surrey-Fleetwood NDP likely SU-FL Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP likely BU-SM Surrey-Newton NDP likely SU-NW Burnaby North NDP likely BU-N New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP likely NWCQ Delta North NDP likely DELN Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP likely MAPP Vancouver-Fraserview NDP likely V-FRV Burnaby Centre NDP likely BU-C Surrey-Guildford NDP likely SU-GF Cowichan Valley NDP likely COWV Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP likely CQMA Surrey-Panorama NDP leaning SU-PA Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP leaning V-LM Bulkley Valley-Stikine NDP leaning BULK Maple Ridge East NDP leaning MAPE Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP leaning NALA Kootenay Central Toss up KOOC Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Toss up CQBM Port Moody-Burquitlam Toss up PMBQ Vancouver-Point Grey Toss up V-PG North Island Toss up NOIS Surrey-Cloverdale Toss up SU-CL North Vancouver-Seymour Toss up NVSM Surrey-Serpentine River Toss up SU-SR Richmond Centre Toss up RCHC Richmond-Steveston Toss up RCHS Vancouver-Langara Toss up V-LAN Ladysmith-Oceanside Toss up LADY Chilliwack-Cultus Lake Toss up CHIC Fraser-Nicola CPBC leaning FRNI Richmond-Queensborough CPBC leaning RCHQ Boundary-Similkameen CPBC likely BOMI Vancouver-Yaletown CPBC likely V-YAL Richmond-Bridgeport CPBC likely RCHB Skeena CPBC likely SKEE Langley-Willowbrook CPBC likely LGWI Surrey-White Rock CPBC likely SU-WR Abbotsford-Mission CPBC likely ABBM Langley-Walnut Grove CPBC safe LGWG Kamloops Centre CPBC safe KAMC Saanich North and the Islands GRN safe SAAN Delta South CPBC safe DELS Surrey South CPBC safe SU-S Penticton-Summerland CPBC safe PENT Vernon-Lumby CPBC safe VERL Columbia River-Revelstoke CPBC safe CORR Langley-Abbotsford CPBC safe LGAB West Vancouver-Sea to Sky CPBC likely WV-SS Abbotsford South CPBC safe ABBS Abbotsford West CPBC safe ABBW Prince George-North Cariboo CPBC safe PGNC Prince George-Mackenzie CPBC safe PGMA Chilliwack North CPBC safe CHIN Kootenay-Rockies CPBC safe KOOR Kamloops-North Thompson CPBC safe KAMN Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream CPBC safe KWLC West Vancouver-Capilano CPBC safe WV-CA Nechako Lakes CPBC safe NECH Salmon Arm-Shuswap CPBC safe SSHU West Kelowna-Peachland CPBC safe WKWP Kelowna Centre CPBC safe KWCE Cariboo-Chilcotin CPBC safe CARI Vancouver-Quilchena CPBC safe V-QUI Kelowna-Mission CPBC safe KWMI Prince George-Valemount CPBC safe PGVA Peace River South CPBC safe PRIS Peace River North CPBC safe PRIN LFHL V-REN V-STR POCQ MIPR ESQC V-HAS VI-SL NAGA JUAN POWR V-WE OAKB NCHG SAAS BU-NW SU-CC V-SG KOOM VI-BH V-KEN SU-N BU-E COCO NVLO SU-FL BU-SM SU-NW BU-N NWCQ DELN MAPP V-FRV BU-C SU-GF COWV CQMA SU-PA V-LM BULK MAPE NALA KOOC CQBM PMBQ V-PG NOIS SU-CL NVSM SU-SR RCHC RCHS V-LAN LADY CHIC FRNI RCHQ BOMI V-YAL RCHB SKEE LGWI SU-WR ABBM LGWG KAMC SAAN DELS SU-S PENT VERL CORR LGAB WV-SS ABBS ABBW PGNC PGMA CHIN KOOR KAMN KWLC WV-CA NECH SSHU WKWP KWCE CARI V-QUI KWMI PGVA PRIS PRIN 338Canada British Columbia Projection Latest update: September 3, 2024 ▲43 CPBC [34-53] NDP 49▼ [37-60]


Latest update: September 3, 2024

47 seats needed for a majority
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Seat-by-seat
projection
Last election
(2020)
19 18 5 7 49
[37-60]
57
27 8 2 6 43
[34-53]
0
1 0 0 0 1
[1-2]
2

List of all 93 electoral districts | British Columbia


Electoral district Transposed
2020 winner
Latest projection
001 Abbotsford South CPBC safe
002 Abbotsford West CPBC safe
003 Abbotsford-Mission CPBC likely
004 Boundary-Similkameen CPBC likely
005 Bulkley Valley-Stikine NDP leaning
006 Burnaby Centre NDP likely
007 Burnaby East NDP likely
008 Burnaby North NDP likely
009 Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP likely
010 Burnaby-New Westminster NDP safe
011 Cariboo-Chilcotin CPBC safe
012 Chilliwack North CPBC safe
013 Chilliwack-Cultus Lake Toss up
014 Columbia River-Revelstoke CPBC safe
015 Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Toss up
016 Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP likely
017 Courtenay-Comox NDP likely
018 Cowichan Valley NDP likely
019 Delta North NDP likely
020 Delta South CPBC safe
021 Esquimalt-Colwood NDP safe
022 Fraser-Nicola CPBC leaning
023 Juan de Fuca-Malahat NDP safe
024 Kamloops Centre CPBC safe
025 Kamloops-North Thompson CPBC safe
026 Kelowna Centre CPBC safe
027 Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream CPBC safe
028 Kelowna-Mission CPBC safe
029 Kootenay Central Toss up
030 Kootenay-Monashee NDP safe
031 Kootenay-Rockies CPBC safe
032 Ladysmith-Oceanside Toss up
033 Langford-Highlands NDP safe
034 Langley-Abbotsford CPBC safe
035 Langley-Walnut Grove CPBC safe
036 Langley-Willowbrook CPBC likely
037 Maple Ridge East NDP leaning
038 Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP likely
039 Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP safe
040 Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP safe
041 Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP leaning
042 Nechako Lakes CPBC safe
043 New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP likely
044 North Coast-Haida Gwaii NDP safe
045 North Island Toss up
046 North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP likely
047 North Vancouver-Seymour Toss up
048 Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe
049 Peace River North CPBC safe
050 Peace River South CPBC safe
051 Penticton-Summerland CPBC safe
052 Port Coquitlam NDP safe
053 Port Moody-Burquitlam Toss up
054 Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP safe
055 Prince George-Mackenzie CPBC safe
056 Prince George-North Cariboo CPBC safe
057 Prince George-Valemount CPBC safe
058 Richmond Centre Toss up
059 Richmond-Bridgeport CPBC likely
060 Richmond-Queensborough CPBC leaning
061 Richmond-Steveston Toss up
062 Saanich North and the Islands GRN safe
063 Saanich South NDP safe
064 Salmon Arm-Shuswap CPBC safe
065 Skeena CPBC likely
066 Surrey City Centre NDP safe
067 Surrey North NDP likely
068 Surrey South CPBC safe
069 Surrey-Cloverdale Toss up
070 Surrey-Fleetwood NDP likely
071 Surrey-Guildford NDP likely
072 Surrey-Newton NDP likely
073 Surrey-Panorama NDP leaning
074 Surrey-Serpentine River Toss up
075 Surrey-White Rock CPBC likely
076 Vancouver-Fraserview NDP likely
077 Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe
078 Vancouver-Kensington NDP likely
079 Vancouver-Langara Toss up
080 Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP leaning
081 Vancouver-Point Grey Toss up
082 Vancouver-Quilchena CPBC safe
083 Vancouver-Renfrew NDP safe
084 Vancouver-South Granville NDP safe
085 Vancouver-Strathcona NDP safe
086 Vancouver-West End NDP safe
087 Vancouver-Yaletown CPBC likely
088 Vernon-Lumby CPBC safe
089 Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP likely
090 Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe
091 West Kelowna-Peachland CPBC safe
092 West Vancouver-Capilano CPBC safe
093 West Vancouver-Sea to Sky CPBC likely