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Victoria-Beacon Hill

Latest update: December 20, 2025
N
MLA: Grace Lore
New Democratic Party
NDP likely
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Recent electoral history | Victoria-Beacon Hill


2017 2020 2024 Projection NDP 45% ± 8% 53.6% 54.7% 47.4% BCG 35% ± 8% 30.9% 30.2% 33.5% CPBC 17% ± 5% 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% BCU 0% ± 0% 14.5% 13.9% 0.0%

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338Canada Victoria-Beacon Hill projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Victoria-Beacon Hill 36% 53% 45% ± 8% ▼ NDP 27% 43% 35% ± 8% ▲ BCG 12% 22% 17% ± 5% ▼ CPBC NDP 2024 47.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Victoria-Beacon Hill 92%▼ NDP 8%▲ BCG <1% CPBC Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Victoria-Beacon Hill

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 17% ± 5% NDP 45% ± 8% BCG 35% ± 8% ONE 1% ± 1% CEN 0% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Victoria-Beacon Hill 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP 48% BCG 23% CPBC 18% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 47% BCG 21% CPBC 20% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 45% CPBC 24% BCG 21% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 46% CPBC 22% BCG 21% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 46% BCG 22% CPBC 22% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 45% CPBC 23% BCG 23% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 42% BCG 27% CPBC 23% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 44% BCG 25% CPBC 23% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 44% BCG 30% CPBC 24% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 45% BCG 31% CPBC 25% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 45% BCG 31% CPBC 25% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 44% BCG 31% CPBC 24% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 43% BCG 32% CPBC 25% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 43% BCG 31% CPBC 26% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 43% BCG 31% CPBC 26% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 43% BCG 31% CPBC 26% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 43% BCG 31% CPBC 26% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 42% BCG 30% CPBC 28% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 42% BCG 30% CPBC 28% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 42% BCG 30% CPBC 28% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 42% BCG 30% CPBC 28% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 42% BCG 30% CPBC 28% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 42% BCG 30% CPBC 28% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 42% BCG 31% CPBC 27% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 43% BCG 31% CPBC 27% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 43% BCG 31% CPBC 27% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 43% BCG 30% CPBC 27% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 40% BCG 34% CPBC 27% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 BCG 40% NDP 34% CPBC 26% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 BCG 40% NDP 34% CPBC 26% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 BCG 42% NDP 33% CPBC 25% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 BCG 41% NDP 34% CPBC 26% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 BCG 41% NDP 34% CPBC 25% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 BCG 41% NDP 34% CPBC 25% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 BCG 41% NDP 34% CPBC 25% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 BCG 41% NDP 34% CPBC 25% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 47% BCG 34% CPBC 19% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 47% BCG 34% CPBC 19% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 47% BCG 34% CPBC 19% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 47% BCG 34% CPBC 19% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 47% BCG 34% CPBC 19% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 46% BCG 34% CPBC 18% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 45% BCG 35% CPBC 17% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20

Odds of winning | Victoria-Beacon Hill

BCU <1% CPBC <1% NDP 92% BCG 8% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 98% BCG 2% CPBC <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 88% BCG 12% CPBC <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 BCG 88% NDP 12% CPBC <1% 2025-12-20 2024-03-26 BCG 88% NDP 12% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 BCG 96% NDP 4% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 BCG 89% NDP 11% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 BCG 88% NDP 12% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 BCG 87% NDP 13% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 BCG 88% NDP 12% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 BCG 88% NDP 12% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 98% BCG 2% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 97% BCG 3% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 96% BCG 4% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 92% BCG 8% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26