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British columbia

BC New Democratic Party





Last update: July 12, 2024

LeaderDavid Eby
Popular vote in 202047.7%
Current vote projection39.8% ± 4.2%
Current seat projection54 [41-66]

Vote projection | July 12, 2024

30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 35.6% 39.8% ± 4.2% Max. 44.0% 2020 47.7% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | July 12, 2024

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 41 Majority 47 seats 54 2020 57 seats Max. 66 Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | BC New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Langford-Highlands NDP safe >99%
2. Vancouver-Renfrew NDP safe >99%
3. Vancouver-Strathcona NDP safe >99%
4. Port Coquitlam NDP safe >99%
5. Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP safe >99%
6. Vancouver-West End NDP safe >99%
7. Esquimalt-Colwood NDP safe >99%
8. Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe >99%
9. Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP safe >99%
10. Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP safe >99%
11. North Coast-Haida Gwaii NDP safe >99%
12. Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe >99%
13. Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP safe >99%
14. Saanich South NDP safe >99%
15. Juan de Fuca-Malahat NDP safe >99%
16. Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe >99%
17. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP safe >99%
18. Burnaby-New Westminster NDP safe >99%
19. Surrey City Centre NDP safe >99%
20. North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP safe >99%
21. Kootenay-Monashee NDP safe >99%
22. Vancouver-South Granville NDP safe >99%
23. New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP safe >99%
24. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP safe >99%
25. Surrey North NDP safe >99%
26. Vancouver-Kensington NDP safe >99%
27. Burnaby East NDP likely 99%
28. Maple Ridge East NDP likely 99%
29. Courtenay-Comox NDP likely 99%
30. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP likely 99%
31. Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP likely 99%
32. Surrey-Newton NDP likely 99%
33. Delta North NDP likely 99%
34. Burnaby North NDP likely 99%
35. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP likely 98%
36. Burnaby Centre NDP likely 98%
37. Bulkley Valley-Stikine NDP likely 98%
38. Surrey-Guildford NDP likely 98%
39. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain NDP likely 97%
40. North Vancouver-Seymour NDP likely 97%
41. Surrey-Panorama NDP likely 94%
42. Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP likely 93%
43. Kootenay Central NDP leaning 87%
44. Cowichan Valley NDP leaning 83%
45. Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP leaning 83%
46. Vancouver-Point Grey NDP leaning 78%
47. Port Moody-Burquitlam NDP leaning 77%
48. Richmond Centre NDP leaning 75%
49. Surrey-Cloverdale NDP leaning 72%
50. Surrey-Serpentine River Toss up 68%
51. Richmond-Steveston Toss up 67%
52. North Island Toss up 61%
53. Fraser-Nicola Toss up 57%
54. Vancouver-Langara Toss up 50%
55. Ladysmith-Oceanside Toss up 48%
56. Skeena Toss up 38%
57. Boundary-Similkameen Toss up 36%
58. Richmond-Queensborough Toss up 31%
59. Langley-Willowbrook BCC leaning 24%
60. Vancouver-Yaletown BCC leaning 18%
61. Langley-Walnut Grove BCC leaning 18%
62. Richmond-Bridgeport BCC leaning 16%
63. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake BCC leaning 16%
64. Abbotsford-Mission BCC leaning 15%
65. Kamloops Centre BCC leaning 15%
66. Surrey-White Rock BCC likely 10%
67. Abbotsford South BCC likely 4%
68. Delta South BCC likely 4%
69. Penticton-Summerland BCC likely 3%
70. Prince George-Mackenzie BCC likely 3%
71. Columbia River-Revelstoke BCC likely 2%
72. Surrey South BCC likely 1%
73. Chilliwack North BCC likely 1%
74. Langley-Abbotsford BCC likely 1%
75. Vernon-Lumby BCC likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Langford-Highlands NDP safe
2. Vancouver-Renfrew NDP safe
3. Vancouver-Strathcona NDP safe
4. Port Coquitlam NDP safe
5. Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP safe
6. Vancouver-West End NDP safe
7. Esquimalt-Colwood NDP safe
8. Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe
9. Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP safe
10. Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP safe
11. North Coast-Haida Gwaii NDP safe
12. Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe
13. Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP safe
14. Saanich South NDP safe
15. Juan de Fuca-Malahat NDP safe
16. Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe
17. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP safe
18. Burnaby-New Westminster NDP safe
19. Surrey City Centre NDP safe
20. North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP safe
21. Kootenay-Monashee NDP safe
22. Vancouver-South Granville NDP safe
23. New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP safe
24. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP safe
25. Surrey North NDP safe
26. Vancouver-Kensington NDP safe
27. Burnaby East NDP likely
28. Maple Ridge East NDP likely
29. Courtenay-Comox NDP likely
30. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP likely
31. Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP likely
32. Surrey-Newton NDP likely
33. Delta North NDP likely
34. Burnaby North NDP likely
35. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP likely
36. Burnaby Centre NDP likely
37. Bulkley Valley-Stikine NDP likely
38. Surrey-Guildford NDP likely
39. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain NDP likely
40. North Vancouver-Seymour NDP likely
41. Surrey-Panorama NDP likely
42. Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP likely
43. Kootenay Central NDP leaning
44. Cowichan Valley NDP leaning
45. Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP leaning
46. Vancouver-Point Grey NDP leaning
47. Port Moody-Burquitlam NDP leaning
48. Richmond Centre NDP leaning
49. Surrey-Cloverdale NDP leaning
50. Surrey-Serpentine River Toss up
51. Richmond-Steveston Toss up
52. North Island Toss up
53. Fraser-Nicola Toss up
54. Vancouver-Langara Toss up
55. Ladysmith-Oceanside Toss up
56. Skeena Toss up
57. Boundary-Similkameen Toss up
58. Richmond-Queensborough Toss up
59. Langley-Willowbrook BCC leaning
60. Vancouver-Yaletown BCC leaning
61. Langley-Walnut Grove BCC leaning
62. Richmond-Bridgeport BCC leaning
63. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake BCC leaning
64. Abbotsford-Mission BCC leaning
65. Kamloops Centre BCC leaning
66. Surrey-White Rock BCC likely
67. Abbotsford South BCC likely
68. Delta South BCC likely
69. Penticton-Summerland BCC likely
70. Prince George-Mackenzie BCC likely
71. Columbia River-Revelstoke BCC likely
72. Surrey South BCC likely
73. Chilliwack North BCC likely
74. Langley-Abbotsford BCC likely
75. Vernon-Lumby BCC likely