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BC New Democratic Party





Last update: February 9, 2025

LeaderDavid Eby
Popular vote in 202444.9%
Current vote projection44.9% ± 3.9%
Current seat projection47 [36-61]

Vote projection | February 9, 2025

36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 41.0% ▼ 44.9% ± 3.9% ▼ 2020 47.7% Max. 48.8% ▼ Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | February 9, 2025

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 36 ▼ Majority 47 seats 47 ▼ 2020 57 seats Max. 61 ▼ Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | BC New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Vancouver-Strathcona NDP safe >99%
2. North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP safe >99%
3. Vancouver-South Granville NDP safe >99%
4. Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe >99%
5. Vancouver-Renfrew NDP safe >99%
6. Vancouver-West End NDP safe >99%
7. Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP safe >99%
8. Vancouver-Kensington NDP safe >99%
9. New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP safe >99%
10. Vancouver-Point Grey NDP safe >99%
11. Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe >99%
12. Esquimalt-Colwood NDP safe >99%
13. Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe >99%
14. Burnaby-New Westminster NDP safe >99%
15. North Coast-Haida Gwaii NDP safe >99%
16. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP safe >99%
17. Saanich South NDP safe >99%
18. Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP safe >99%
19. North Vancouver-Seymour NDP safe >99%
20. Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP likely >99%
21. Port Coquitlam NDP likely >99%
22. Langford-Highlands NDP likely 99%
23. Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP likely 99%
24. Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP likely 99%
25. Kootenay-Monashee NDP likely 98%
26. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP likely 98%
27. Burnaby Centre NDP likely 98%
28. Delta North NDP likely 98%
29. Port Moody-Burquitlam NDP likely 98%
30. Burnaby East NDP likely 96%
31. Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP likely 95%
32. Burnaby North NDP likely 95%
33. Kootenay Central NDP likely 94%
34. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP likely 94%
35. Ladysmith-Oceanside NDP leaning 90%
36. Surrey-Newton NDP leaning 89%
37. Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP leaning 88%
38. Vancouver-Yaletown NDP leaning 84%
39. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP leaning 73%
40. Cowichan Valley NDP leaning 72%
41. Richmond-Steveston Toss up 65%
42. Vancouver-Langara Toss up 65%
43. Vernon-Lumby Toss up 63%
44. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Toss up 61%
45. Surrey City Centre Toss up 60%
46. Juan de Fuca-Malahat Toss up 55%
47. Surrey-Guildford Toss up 51%
48. Kelowna Centre Toss up 49%
49. Maple Ridge East Toss up 49%
50. Courtenay-Comox Toss up 49%
51. Penticton-Summerland Toss up 42%
52. Surrey-Panorama Toss up 42%
53. Surrey-Serpentine River Toss up 37%
54. North Island Toss up 36%
55. Surrey-Cloverdale Toss up 34%
56. Columbia River-Revelstoke CPBC leaning 30%
57. Langley-Willowbrook CPBC leaning 27%
58. Langley-Walnut Grove CPBC leaning 22%
59. Skeena CPBC leaning 19%
60. Saanich North and the Islands GRN leaning 19%
61. Boundary-Similkameen CPBC leaning 17%
62. Richmond-Queensborough CPBC leaning 15%
63. Surrey North CPBC leaning 15%
64. Surrey-White Rock CPBC leaning 13%
65. Kamloops Centre CPBC likely 9%
66. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake CPBC likely 8%
67. Delta South CPBC likely 6%
68. Abbotsford-Mission CPBC likely 5%
69. Bulkley Valley-Stikine CPBC likely 5%
70. Vancouver-Quilchena CPBC likely 2%
71. Richmond Centre CPBC likely 1%