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British columbia

BC New Democratic Party





Last update: March 26, 2024

LeaderDavid Eby
Popular vote in 202047.7%
Current vote projection42.2% ± 4.4%
Current number of MP's62
Current seat projection68 [54-81]

Vote projection | March 26, 2024

32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 37.8% 42.2% ± 4.4% Max. 46.6% 2020 47.7% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | March 26, 2024

37 42 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Majority 47 seats Min. 54 2020 57 seats 68 Max. 81 Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | BC New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. North Coast-Haida Gwaii NDP safe >99%
2. Vancouver-Renfrew NDP safe >99%
3. Surrey City Centre NDP safe >99%
4. Langford-Highlands NDP safe >99%
5. Vancouver-Strathcona NDP safe >99%
6. Port Coquitlam NDP safe >99%
7. Vancouver-West End NDP safe >99%
8. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP safe >99%
9. Surrey North NDP safe >99%
10. Burnaby-New Westminster NDP safe >99%
11. Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe >99%
12. Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP safe >99%
13. Surrey-Newton NDP safe >99%
14. North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP safe >99%
15. Vancouver-Kensington NDP safe >99%
16. Burnaby East NDP safe >99%
17. Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP safe >99%
18. Surrey-Guildford NDP safe >99%
19. Kootenay-Monashee NDP safe >99%
20. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP safe >99%
21. Esquimalt-Colwood NDP safe >99%
22. New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP safe >99%
23. Burnaby North NDP safe >99%
24. Delta North NDP safe >99%
25. Vancouver-South Granville NDP safe >99%
26. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP safe >99%
27. Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe >99%
28. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP safe >99%
29. Burnaby Centre NDP safe >99%
30. Surrey-Panorama NDP safe >99%
31. Bulkley Valley-Stikine NDP safe >99%
32. Saanich South NDP safe >99%
33. Maple Ridge East NDP safe >99%
34. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain NDP safe >99%
35. Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP safe >99%
36. Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP safe >99%
37. Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe >99%
38. Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP safe >99%
39. Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP safe >99%
40. Courtenay-Comox NDP safe >99%
41. Vancouver-Point Grey NDP safe >99%
42. North Vancouver-Seymour NDP safe >99%
43. Juan de Fuca-Malahat NDP safe >99%
44. Port Moody-Burquitlam NDP safe >99%
45. Surrey-Serpentine River NDP safe >99%
46. Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP safe >99%
47. Surrey-Cloverdale NDP safe >99%
48. Richmond-Steveston NDP safe >99%
49. Kootenay Central NDP safe >99%
50. Fraser-Nicola NDP safe >99%
51. Richmond Centre NDP likely 98%
52. Ladysmith-Oceanside NDP likely 97%
53. Vancouver-Langara NDP likely 95%
54. Cowichan Valley NDP likely 92%
55. North Island NDP likely 90%
56. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake NDP likely 90%
57. Kamloops Centre NDP leaning 88%
58. Skeena NDP leaning 79%
59. Surrey-White Rock NDP leaning 77%
60. Richmond-Bridgeport NDP leaning 77%
61. Vancouver-Yaletown NDP leaning 71%
62. Abbotsford South Toss up 69%
63. Boundary-Similkameen Toss up 64%
64. Abbotsford-Mission Toss up 63%
65. Langley-Willowbrook Toss up 60%
66. Langley-Walnut Grove Toss up 54%
67. Penticton-Summerland Toss up 49%
68. Richmond-Queensborough Toss up 48%
69. Langley-Abbotsford Toss up 38%
70. Chilliwack North Toss up 34%
71. Kamloops-North Thompson Toss up 32%
72. Kelowna Centre Toss up 31%
73. Prince George-Mackenzie Toss up 31%
74. Surrey South Toss up 30%
75. Columbia River-Revelstoke BCC leaning 22%
76. Abbotsford West BCC leaning 22%
77. Kelowna-Mission Toss up 20%
78. Nechako Lakes BCC leaning 17%
79. Salmon Arm-Shuswap BCC leaning 17%
80. Prince George-North Cariboo Toss up 11%
81. Cariboo-Chilcotin Toss up 11%
82. Vancouver-Quilchena BCU leaning 10%
83. Vernon-Lumby BCC likely 10%
84. Delta South BCU leaning 9%
85. Kootenay-Rockies Toss up 5%
86. West Vancouver-Capilano BCU leaning 5%
87. Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream Toss up 3%
88. Prince George-Valemount Toss up 2%
89. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky GRN leaning 2%
90. West Kelowna-Peachland BCC leaning 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. North Coast-Haida Gwaii NDP safe
2. Vancouver-Renfrew NDP safe
3. Surrey City Centre NDP safe
4. Langford-Highlands NDP safe
5. Vancouver-Strathcona NDP safe
6. Port Coquitlam NDP safe
7. Vancouver-West End NDP safe
8. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP safe
9. Surrey North NDP safe
10. Burnaby-New Westminster NDP safe
11. Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe
12. Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP safe
13. Surrey-Newton NDP safe
14. North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP safe
15. Vancouver-Kensington NDP safe
16. Burnaby East NDP safe
17. Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP safe
18. Surrey-Guildford NDP safe
19. Kootenay-Monashee NDP safe
20. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP safe
21. Esquimalt-Colwood NDP safe
22. New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP safe
23. Burnaby North NDP safe
24. Delta North NDP safe
25. Vancouver-South Granville NDP safe
26. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP safe
27. Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe
28. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP safe
29. Burnaby Centre NDP safe
30. Surrey-Panorama NDP safe
31. Bulkley Valley-Stikine NDP safe
32. Saanich South NDP safe
33. Maple Ridge East NDP safe
34. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain NDP safe
35. Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP safe
36. Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP safe
37. Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe
38. Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP safe
39. Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP safe
40. Courtenay-Comox NDP safe
41. Vancouver-Point Grey NDP safe
42. North Vancouver-Seymour NDP safe
43. Juan de Fuca-Malahat NDP safe
44. Port Moody-Burquitlam NDP safe
45. Surrey-Serpentine River NDP safe
46. Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP safe
47. Surrey-Cloverdale NDP safe
48. Richmond-Steveston NDP safe
49. Kootenay Central NDP safe
50. Fraser-Nicola NDP safe
51. Richmond Centre NDP likely
52. Ladysmith-Oceanside NDP likely
53. Vancouver-Langara NDP likely
54. Cowichan Valley NDP likely
55. North Island NDP likely
56. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake NDP likely
57. Kamloops Centre NDP leaning
58. Skeena NDP leaning
59. Surrey-White Rock NDP leaning
60. Richmond-Bridgeport NDP leaning
61. Vancouver-Yaletown NDP leaning
62. Abbotsford South Toss up
63. Boundary-Similkameen Toss up
64. Abbotsford-Mission Toss up
65. Langley-Willowbrook Toss up
66. Langley-Walnut Grove Toss up
67. Penticton-Summerland Toss up
68. Richmond-Queensborough Toss up
69. Langley-Abbotsford Toss up
70. Chilliwack North Toss up
71. Kamloops-North Thompson Toss up
72. Kelowna Centre Toss up
73. Prince George-Mackenzie Toss up
74. Surrey South Toss up
75. Columbia River-Revelstoke BCC leaning
76. Abbotsford West BCC leaning
77. Kelowna-Mission Toss up
78. Nechako Lakes BCC leaning
79. Salmon Arm-Shuswap BCC leaning
80. Prince George-North Cariboo Toss up
81. Cariboo-Chilcotin Toss up
82. Vancouver-Quilchena BCU leaning
83. Vernon-Lumby BCC likely
84. Delta South BCU leaning
85. Kootenay-Rockies Toss up
86. West Vancouver-Capilano BCU leaning
87. Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream Toss up
88. Prince George-Valemount Toss up
89. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky GRN leaning
90. West Kelowna-Peachland BCC leaning