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British columbia

BC New Democratic Party





Last update: February 1, 2024

LeaderDavid Eby
Popular vote in 202047.7%
Current vote projection45.9% ± 4.6%
Current number of MP's62
Current seat projection81 [67-90]

Vote projection | February 1, 2024

36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 41.3% 45.9% ± 4.6% 2020 47.7% Max. 50.6% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | February 1, 2024

53 58 63 68 73 78 83 88 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2020 57 seats Min. 67 81 Max. 90 Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | BC New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. North Coast-Haida Gwaii NDP safe >99%
2. Vancouver-Renfrew NDP safe >99%
3. Surrey City Centre NDP safe >99%
4. Langford-Highlands NDP safe >99%
5. Vancouver-Strathcona NDP safe >99%
6. Port Coquitlam NDP safe >99%
7. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP safe >99%
8. Surrey North NDP safe >99%
9. Vancouver-West End NDP safe >99%
10. Burnaby-New Westminster NDP safe >99%
11. Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe >99%
12. Surrey-Newton NDP safe >99%
13. North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP safe >99%
14. Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP safe >99%
15. Vancouver-Kensington NDP safe >99%
16. Burnaby East NDP safe >99%
17. Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP safe >99%
18. Surrey-Guildford NDP safe >99%
19. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP safe >99%
20. Kootenay-Monashee NDP safe >99%
21. Delta North NDP safe >99%
22. Burnaby North NDP safe >99%
23. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP safe >99%
24. Esquimalt-Colwood NDP safe >99%
25. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP safe >99%
26. Burnaby Centre NDP safe >99%
27. Vancouver-South Granville NDP safe >99%
28. New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP safe >99%
29. Surrey-Panorama NDP safe >99%
30. Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe >99%
31. Bulkley Valley-Stikine NDP safe >99%
32. Maple Ridge East NDP safe >99%
33. Saanich South NDP safe >99%
34. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain NDP safe >99%
35. Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP safe >99%
36. Port Moody-Burquitlam NDP safe >99%
37. Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP safe >99%
38. Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP safe >99%
39. Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe >99%
40. Courtenay-Comox NDP safe >99%
41. Surrey-Serpentine River NDP safe >99%
42. Vancouver-Point Grey NDP safe >99%
43. North Vancouver-Seymour NDP safe >99%
44. Richmond-Steveston NDP safe >99%
45. Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP safe >99%
46. Fraser-Nicola NDP safe >99%
47. Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP safe >99%
48. Surrey-Cloverdale NDP safe >99%
49. Juan de Fuca-Malahat NDP safe >99%
50. Ladysmith-Oceanside NDP safe >99%
51. Richmond Centre NDP safe >99%
52. Kootenay Central NDP safe >99%
53. North Island NDP safe >99%
54. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake NDP safe >99%
55. Vancouver-Langara NDP safe >99%
56. Kamloops Centre NDP likely 99%
57. Surrey-White Rock NDP likely 99%
58. Skeena NDP likely 98%
59. Richmond-Bridgeport NDP likely 97%
60. Abbotsford South NDP likely 96%
61. Vancouver-Yaletown NDP likely 95%
62. Cowichan Valley NDP likely 95%
63. Boundary-Similkameen NDP likely 94%
64. Abbotsford-Mission NDP likely 94%
65. Langley-Willowbrook NDP likely 92%
66. Langley-Walnut Grove NDP likely 90%
67. Penticton-Summerland NDP leaning 89%
68. Richmond-Queensborough NDP leaning 87%
69. Columbia River-Revelstoke NDP leaning 87%
70. Langley-Abbotsford NDP leaning 84%
71. Kelowna Centre NDP leaning 79%
72. Surrey South NDP leaning 76%
73. Kamloops-North Thompson NDP leaning 76%
74. Prince George-Mackenzie NDP leaning 76%
75. Salmon Arm-Shuswap NDP leaning 74%
76. Chilliwack North NDP leaning 72%
77. Kelowna-Mission Toss up 69%
78. Abbotsford West Toss up 58%
79. Prince George-North Cariboo Toss up 49%
80. Nechako Lakes Toss up 48%
81. Delta South Toss up 47%
82. Cariboo-Chilcotin Toss up 47%
83. Vancouver-Quilchena Toss up 45%
84. Vernon-Lumby Toss up 35%
85. Kootenay-Rockies Toss up 31%
86. West Vancouver-Capilano Toss up 30%
87. Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream Toss up 27%
88. Prince George-Valemount Toss up 18%
89. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky GRN leaning 14%
90. West Kelowna-Peachland BCC leaning 14%
91. Saanich North and the Islands GRN likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. North Coast-Haida Gwaii NDP safe
2. Vancouver-Renfrew NDP safe
3. Surrey City Centre NDP safe
4. Langford-Highlands NDP safe
5. Vancouver-Strathcona NDP safe
6. Port Coquitlam NDP safe
7. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP safe
8. Surrey North NDP safe
9. Vancouver-West End NDP safe
10. Burnaby-New Westminster NDP safe
11. Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe
12. Surrey-Newton NDP safe
13. North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP safe
14. Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP safe
15. Vancouver-Kensington NDP safe
16. Burnaby East NDP safe
17. Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP safe
18. Surrey-Guildford NDP safe
19. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP safe
20. Kootenay-Monashee NDP safe
21. Delta North NDP safe
22. Burnaby North NDP safe
23. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP safe
24. Esquimalt-Colwood NDP safe
25. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP safe
26. Burnaby Centre NDP safe
27. Vancouver-South Granville NDP safe
28. New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP safe
29. Surrey-Panorama NDP safe
30. Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe
31. Bulkley Valley-Stikine NDP safe
32. Maple Ridge East NDP safe
33. Saanich South NDP safe
34. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain NDP safe
35. Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP safe
36. Port Moody-Burquitlam NDP safe
37. Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP safe
38. Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP safe
39. Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe
40. Courtenay-Comox NDP safe
41. Surrey-Serpentine River NDP safe
42. Vancouver-Point Grey NDP safe
43. North Vancouver-Seymour NDP safe
44. Richmond-Steveston NDP safe
45. Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP safe
46. Fraser-Nicola NDP safe
47. Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP safe
48. Surrey-Cloverdale NDP safe
49. Juan de Fuca-Malahat NDP safe
50. Ladysmith-Oceanside NDP safe
51. Richmond Centre NDP safe
52. Kootenay Central NDP safe
53. North Island NDP safe
54. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake NDP safe
55. Vancouver-Langara NDP safe
56. Kamloops Centre NDP likely
57. Surrey-White Rock NDP likely
58. Skeena NDP likely
59. Richmond-Bridgeport NDP likely
60. Abbotsford South NDP likely
61. Vancouver-Yaletown NDP likely
62. Cowichan Valley NDP likely
63. Boundary-Similkameen NDP likely
64. Abbotsford-Mission NDP likely
65. Langley-Willowbrook NDP likely
66. Langley-Walnut Grove NDP likely
67. Penticton-Summerland NDP leaning
68. Richmond-Queensborough NDP leaning
69. Columbia River-Revelstoke NDP leaning
70. Langley-Abbotsford NDP leaning
71. Kelowna Centre NDP leaning
72. Surrey South NDP leaning
73. Kamloops-North Thompson NDP leaning
74. Prince George-Mackenzie NDP leaning
75. Salmon Arm-Shuswap NDP leaning
76. Chilliwack North NDP leaning
77. Kelowna-Mission Toss up
78. Abbotsford West Toss up
79. Prince George-North Cariboo Toss up
80. Nechako Lakes Toss up
81. Delta South Toss up
82. Cariboo-Chilcotin Toss up
83. Vancouver-Quilchena Toss up
84. Vernon-Lumby Toss up
85. Kootenay-Rockies Toss up
86. West Vancouver-Capilano Toss up
87. Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream Toss up
88. Prince George-Valemount Toss up
89. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky GRN leaning
90. West Kelowna-Peachland BCC leaning
91. Saanich North and the Islands GRN likely