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British columbia

BC New Democratic Party





Last update: July 14, 2023

LeaderDavid Eby
Popular vote in 202047.7%
Current vote projection45.2% ± 5.5%
Current number of MP's56
Current seat projection60 [50-72]

Vote projection | July 14, 2023

33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 39.8% 45.2% ± 5.5% 2020 47.7% Max. 50.7% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | July 14, 2023

36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Majority 44 seats Min. 50 2020 57 seats 60 Max. 72 Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | BC New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. North Coast NDP safe >99%
2. Vancouver-Mount Pleasant NDP safe >99%
3. Surrey-Whalley NDP safe >99%
4. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP safe >99%
5. Vancouver-Kingsway NDP safe >99%
6. Port Coquitlam NDP safe >99%
7. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP safe >99%
8. Burnaby-Edmonds NDP safe >99%
9. Surrey-Newton NDP safe >99%
10. Vancouver-West End NDP safe >99%
11. Surrey-Guildford NDP safe >99%
12. Burnaby-Lougheed NDP safe >99%
13. North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP safe >99%
14. Vancouver-Kensington NDP safe >99%
15. Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe >99%
16. Esquimalt-Metchosin NDP safe >99%
17. Maple Ridge-Mission NDP safe >99%
18. Kootenay West NDP safe >99%
19. Langford-Juan de Fuca NDP safe >99%
20. Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP safe >99%
21. New Westminster NDP safe >99%
22. Saanich South NDP safe >99%
23. Vancouver-Fairview NDP safe >99%
24. Nanaimo NDP safe >99%
25. North Island NDP safe >99%
26. Courtenay-Comox NDP safe >99%
27. Burnaby North NDP safe >99%
28. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP safe >99%
29. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain NDP safe >99%
30. Burnaby-Deer Lake NDP safe >99%
31. Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe >99%
32. Delta North NDP safe >99%
33. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP safe >99%
34. Stikine NDP safe >99%
35. Port Moody-Coquitlam NDP safe >99%
36. Vancouver-Point Grey NDP safe >99%
37. North Vancouver-Seymour NDP safe >99%
38. Langley NDP safe >99%
39. Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe >99%
40. Surrey-Cloverdale NDP likely 99%
41. Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP likely 99%
42. Surrey-Green Timbers NDP likely 99%
43. Nanaimo-North Cowichan NDP likely 99%
44. Langley East NDP likely 99%
45. Chilliwack NDP likely 98%
46. Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP likely 98%
47. Boundary-Similkameen NDP likely 98%
48. Chilliwack-Kent NDP likely 96%
49. Surrey-Panorama NDP likely 96%
50. Parksville-Qualicum NDP likely 95%
51. Vancouver-False Creek NDP likely 94%
52. Nelson-Creston NDP likely 94%
53. Abbotsford-Mission NDP likely 91%
54. Richmond-Queensborough NDP leaning 88%
55. Richmond-Steveston NDP leaning 87%
56. Fraser-Nicola NDP leaning 79%
57. Richmond South Centre NDP leaning 71%
58. Vernon-Monashee Toss up 68%
59. Kamloops-North Thompson Toss up 58%
60. Abbotsford South Toss up 50%
61. Skeena Toss up 41%
62. Abbotsford West Toss up 40%
63. Surrey-White Rock Toss up 39%
64. Cowichan Valley Toss up 36%
65. Columbia River-Revelstoke Toss up 30%
66. Vancouver-Langara BCU leaning 29%
67. Nechako Lakes BCU leaning 24%
68. Surrey South BCU leaning 23%
69. Penticton BCU leaning 22%
70. Richmond North Centre BCU leaning 15%
71. Cariboo North BCU likely 8%
72. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky Toss up 7%
73. Prince George-Mackenzie BCU likely 6%
74. Kelowna West BCU likely 6%
75. Shuswap BCU likely 4%
76. Cariboo-Chilcotin BCU likely 4%
77. Kamloops-South Thompson BCU likely 3%
78. Kelowna-Mission BCU likely 3%
79. Delta South BCU likely 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. North Coast NDP safe
2. Vancouver-Mount Pleasant NDP safe
3. Surrey-Whalley NDP safe
4. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP safe
5. Vancouver-Kingsway NDP safe
6. Port Coquitlam NDP safe
7. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP safe
8. Burnaby-Edmonds NDP safe
9. Surrey-Newton NDP safe
10. Vancouver-West End NDP safe
11. Surrey-Guildford NDP safe
12. Burnaby-Lougheed NDP safe
13. North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP safe
14. Vancouver-Kensington NDP safe
15. Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe
16. Esquimalt-Metchosin NDP safe
17. Maple Ridge-Mission NDP safe
18. Kootenay West NDP safe
19. Langford-Juan de Fuca NDP safe
20. Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP safe
21. New Westminster NDP safe
22. Saanich South NDP safe
23. Vancouver-Fairview NDP safe
24. Nanaimo NDP safe
25. North Island NDP safe
26. Courtenay-Comox NDP safe
27. Burnaby North NDP safe
28. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP safe
29. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain NDP safe
30. Burnaby-Deer Lake NDP safe
31. Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe
32. Delta North NDP safe
33. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP safe
34. Stikine NDP safe
35. Port Moody-Coquitlam NDP safe
36. Vancouver-Point Grey NDP safe
37. North Vancouver-Seymour NDP safe
38. Langley NDP safe
39. Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe
40. Surrey-Cloverdale NDP likely
41. Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP likely
42. Surrey-Green Timbers NDP likely
43. Nanaimo-North Cowichan NDP likely
44. Langley East NDP likely
45. Chilliwack NDP likely
46. Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP likely
47. Boundary-Similkameen NDP likely
48. Chilliwack-Kent NDP likely
49. Surrey-Panorama NDP likely
50. Parksville-Qualicum NDP likely
51. Vancouver-False Creek NDP likely
52. Nelson-Creston NDP likely
53. Abbotsford-Mission NDP likely
54. Richmond-Queensborough NDP leaning
55. Richmond-Steveston NDP leaning
56. Fraser-Nicola NDP leaning
57. Richmond South Centre NDP leaning
58. Vernon-Monashee Toss up
59. Kamloops-North Thompson Toss up
60. Abbotsford South Toss up
61. Skeena Toss up
62. Abbotsford West Toss up
63. Surrey-White Rock Toss up
64. Cowichan Valley Toss up
65. Columbia River-Revelstoke Toss up
66. Vancouver-Langara BCU leaning
67. Nechako Lakes BCU leaning
68. Surrey South BCU leaning
69. Penticton BCU leaning
70. Richmond North Centre BCU leaning
71. Cariboo North BCU likely
72. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky Toss up
73. Prince George-Mackenzie BCU likely
74. Kelowna West BCU likely
75. Shuswap BCU likely
76. Cariboo-Chilcotin BCU likely
77. Kamloops-South Thompson BCU likely
78. Kelowna-Mission BCU likely
79. Delta South BCU likely