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British columbia

BC New Democratic Party





Last update: February 11, 2023

LeaderDavid Eby
Popular vote in 202047.7%
Current vote projection45.0% ± 5.6%
Current number of MP's57
Current seat projection55 [44-65]

Vote projection | February 11, 2023

32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 56% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 39.4% 45.0% ± 5.6% 2020 47.7% Max. 50.6% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | February 11, 2023

31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 44 Majority 44 seats 55 2020 57 seats Max. 65 Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | BC New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. North Coast NDP safe >99%
2. Surrey-Whalley NDP safe >99%
3. Langford-Juan de Fuca NDP safe >99%
4. Vancouver-Kingsway NDP safe >99%
5. Vancouver-Mount Pleasant NDP safe >99%
6. Port Coquitlam NDP safe >99%
7. Burnaby-Edmonds NDP safe >99%
8. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP safe >99%
9. Vancouver-West End NDP safe >99%
10. Esquimalt-Metchosin NDP safe >99%
11. Burnaby-Lougheed NDP safe >99%
12. Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe >99%
13. Vancouver-Kensington NDP safe >99%
14. Kootenay West NDP safe >99%
15. Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP safe >99%
16. New Westminster NDP safe >99%
17. Saanich South NDP safe >99%
18. Nanaimo NDP safe >99%
19. North Island NDP safe >99%
20. North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP safe >99%
21. Vancouver-Fairview NDP safe >99%
22. Surrey-Newton NDP safe >99%
23. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP safe >99%
24. Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe >99%
25. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP safe >99%
26. Surrey-Guildford NDP safe >99%
27. Burnaby North NDP safe >99%
28. Maple Ridge-Mission NDP safe >99%
29. Courtenay-Comox NDP safe >99%
30. Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe >99%
31. Burnaby-Deer Lake NDP safe >99%
32. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain NDP safe >99%
33. Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP safe >99%
34. Port Moody-Coquitlam NDP safe >99%
35. Delta North NDP safe >99%
36. Stikine NDP safe >99%
37. Vancouver-Point Grey NDP likely 99%
38. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP likely 99%
39. Nanaimo-North Cowichan NDP likely 98%
40. North Vancouver-Seymour NDP likely 97%
41. Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP likely 97%
42. Surrey-Cloverdale NDP likely 96%
43. Langley NDP likely 96%
44. Surrey-Green Timbers NDP likely 96%
45. Chilliwack NDP likely 93%
46. Langley East NDP leaning 88%
47. Boundary-Similkameen NDP leaning 83%
48. Parksville-Qualicum NDP leaning 82%
49. Surrey-Panorama NDP leaning 81%
50. Nelson-Creston NDP leaning 79%
51. Chilliwack-Kent NDP leaning 79%
52. Vancouver-False Creek NDP leaning 78%
53. Richmond-Queensborough Toss up 69%
54. Richmond-Steveston Toss up 65%
55. Abbotsford-Mission Toss up 64%
56. Fraser-Nicola Toss up 46%
57. Richmond South Centre Toss up 42%
58. Vernon-Monashee BCU leaning 29%
59. Kamloops-North Thompson BCU leaning 21%
60. Cowichan Valley GRN leaning 20%
61. Surrey-White Rock BCU leaning 16%
62. Abbotsford South BCU leaning 16%
63. Skeena BCU leaning 12%
64. Abbotsford West BCU leaning 11%
65. Vancouver-Langara BCU likely 9%
66. Columbia River-Revelstoke BCU likely 7%
67. Surrey South BCU likely 7%
68. Richmond North Centre BCU likely 3%
69. Penticton BCU likely 3%
70. Cariboo North BCU likely 1%
71. Nechako Lakes BCU likely 1%
72. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky Toss up 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. North Coast NDP safe
2. Surrey-Whalley NDP safe
3. Langford-Juan de Fuca NDP safe
4. Vancouver-Kingsway NDP safe
5. Vancouver-Mount Pleasant NDP safe
6. Port Coquitlam NDP safe
7. Burnaby-Edmonds NDP safe
8. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP safe
9. Vancouver-West End NDP safe
10. Esquimalt-Metchosin NDP safe
11. Burnaby-Lougheed NDP safe
12. Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe
13. Vancouver-Kensington NDP safe
14. Kootenay West NDP safe
15. Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP safe
16. New Westminster NDP safe
17. Saanich South NDP safe
18. Nanaimo NDP safe
19. North Island NDP safe
20. North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP safe
21. Vancouver-Fairview NDP safe
22. Surrey-Newton NDP safe
23. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP safe
24. Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe
25. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP safe
26. Surrey-Guildford NDP safe
27. Burnaby North NDP safe
28. Maple Ridge-Mission NDP safe
29. Courtenay-Comox NDP safe
30. Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe
31. Burnaby-Deer Lake NDP safe
32. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain NDP safe
33. Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP safe
34. Port Moody-Coquitlam NDP safe
35. Delta North NDP safe
36. Stikine NDP safe
37. Vancouver-Point Grey NDP likely
38. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP likely
39. Nanaimo-North Cowichan NDP likely
40. North Vancouver-Seymour NDP likely
41. Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP likely
42. Surrey-Cloverdale NDP likely
43. Langley NDP likely
44. Surrey-Green Timbers NDP likely
45. Chilliwack NDP likely
46. Langley East NDP leaning
47. Boundary-Similkameen NDP leaning
48. Parksville-Qualicum NDP leaning
49. Surrey-Panorama NDP leaning
50. Nelson-Creston NDP leaning
51. Chilliwack-Kent NDP leaning
52. Vancouver-False Creek NDP leaning
53. Richmond-Queensborough Toss up
54. Richmond-Steveston Toss up
55. Abbotsford-Mission Toss up
56. Fraser-Nicola Toss up
57. Richmond South Centre Toss up
58. Vernon-Monashee BCU leaning
59. Kamloops-North Thompson BCU leaning
60. Cowichan Valley GRN leaning
61. Surrey-White Rock BCU leaning
62. Abbotsford South BCU leaning
63. Skeena BCU leaning
64. Abbotsford West BCU leaning
65. Vancouver-Langara BCU likely
66. Columbia River-Revelstoke BCU likely
67. Surrey South BCU likely
68. Richmond North Centre BCU likely
69. Penticton BCU likely
70. Cariboo North BCU likely
71. Nechako Lakes BCU likely
72. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky Toss up