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British columbia

BC New Democratic Party





Last update: September 3, 2024

LeaderDavid Eby
Popular vote in 202047.7%
Current vote projection43.7% ± 4.3%
Current seat projection49 [37-60]

Vote projection | September 3, 2024

34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 39.4% 43.7% ± 4.3% 2020 47.7% Max. 48.0% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | September 3, 2024

23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 37 Majority 47 seats 49 2020 57 seats Max. 60 Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | BC New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Langford-Highlands NDP safe >99%
2. Vancouver-Renfrew NDP safe >99%
3. Vancouver-Strathcona NDP safe >99%
4. Port Coquitlam NDP safe >99%
5. Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP safe >99%
6. Esquimalt-Colwood NDP safe >99%
7. Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe >99%
8. Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe >99%
9. Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP safe >99%
10. Juan de Fuca-Malahat NDP safe >99%
11. Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP safe >99%
12. Vancouver-West End NDP safe >99%
13. Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe >99%
14. North Coast-Haida Gwaii NDP safe >99%
15. Saanich South NDP safe >99%
16. Burnaby-New Westminster NDP safe >99%
17. Surrey City Centre NDP safe >99%
18. Vancouver-South Granville NDP safe >99%
19. Kootenay-Monashee NDP safe >99%
20. Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP likely 99%
21. Vancouver-Kensington NDP likely 99%
22. Surrey North NDP likely 99%
23. Burnaby East NDP likely 99%
24. Courtenay-Comox NDP likely 99%
25. North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP likely 99%
26. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP likely 99%
27. Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP likely 98%
28. Surrey-Newton NDP likely 98%
29. Burnaby North NDP likely 98%
30. New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP likely 98%
31. Delta North NDP likely 98%
32. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP likely 97%
33. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP likely 97%
34. Burnaby Centre NDP likely 97%
35. Surrey-Guildford NDP likely 97%
36. Cowichan Valley NDP likely 97%
37. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP likely 95%
38. Surrey-Panorama NDP leaning 89%
39. Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP leaning 87%
40. Bulkley Valley-Stikine NDP leaning 84%
41. Maple Ridge East NDP leaning 84%
42. Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP leaning 76%
43. Kootenay Central Toss up 70%
44. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Toss up 69%
45. Port Moody-Burquitlam Toss up 68%
46. Vancouver-Point Grey Toss up 66%
47. North Island Toss up 66%
48. Surrey-Cloverdale Toss up 56%
49. North Vancouver-Seymour Toss up 56%
50. Surrey-Serpentine River Toss up 49%
51. Richmond Centre Toss up 48%
52. Richmond-Steveston Toss up 46%
53. Vancouver-Langara Toss up 40%
54. Ladysmith-Oceanside Toss up 40%
55. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake Toss up 38%
56. Fraser-Nicola CPBC leaning 16%
57. Richmond-Queensborough CPBC leaning 12%
58. Boundary-Similkameen CPBC likely 10%
59. Vancouver-Yaletown CPBC likely 4%
60. Richmond-Bridgeport CPBC likely 3%
61. Skeena CPBC likely 3%
62. Langley-Willowbrook CPBC likely 2%
63. Surrey-White Rock CPBC likely 1%
64. Abbotsford-Mission CPBC likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Langford-Highlands NDP safe
2. Vancouver-Renfrew NDP safe
3. Vancouver-Strathcona NDP safe
4. Port Coquitlam NDP safe
5. Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP safe
6. Esquimalt-Colwood NDP safe
7. Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe
8. Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe
9. Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP safe
10. Juan de Fuca-Malahat NDP safe
11. Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP safe
12. Vancouver-West End NDP safe
13. Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe
14. North Coast-Haida Gwaii NDP safe
15. Saanich South NDP safe
16. Burnaby-New Westminster NDP safe
17. Surrey City Centre NDP safe
18. Vancouver-South Granville NDP safe
19. Kootenay-Monashee NDP safe
20. Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP likely
21. Vancouver-Kensington NDP likely
22. Surrey North NDP likely
23. Burnaby East NDP likely
24. Courtenay-Comox NDP likely
25. North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP likely
26. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP likely
27. Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP likely
28. Surrey-Newton NDP likely
29. Burnaby North NDP likely
30. New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP likely
31. Delta North NDP likely
32. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP likely
33. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP likely
34. Burnaby Centre NDP likely
35. Surrey-Guildford NDP likely
36. Cowichan Valley NDP likely
37. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP likely
38. Surrey-Panorama NDP leaning
39. Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP leaning
40. Bulkley Valley-Stikine NDP leaning
41. Maple Ridge East NDP leaning
42. Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP leaning
43. Kootenay Central Toss up
44. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Toss up
45. Port Moody-Burquitlam Toss up
46. Vancouver-Point Grey Toss up
47. North Island Toss up
48. Surrey-Cloverdale Toss up
49. North Vancouver-Seymour Toss up
50. Surrey-Serpentine River Toss up
51. Richmond Centre Toss up
52. Richmond-Steveston Toss up
53. Vancouver-Langara Toss up
54. Ladysmith-Oceanside Toss up
55. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake Toss up
56. Fraser-Nicola CPBC leaning
57. Richmond-Queensborough CPBC leaning
58. Boundary-Similkameen CPBC likely
59. Vancouver-Yaletown CPBC likely
60. Richmond-Bridgeport CPBC likely
61. Skeena CPBC likely
62. Langley-Willowbrook CPBC likely
63. Surrey-White Rock CPBC likely
64. Abbotsford-Mission CPBC likely