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British columbia

BC Conservative Party





Last update: October 2, 2024

LeaderJohn Rustad
Popular vote in 20201.9%
Current vote projection46.2% ± 3.7%
Current seat projection47 [37-57]

Vote projection | October 2, 2024

38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 42.5% 46.2% ± 3.7% Max. 49.9% Probabilities % CPBC

Seat projection | October 2, 2024

24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 37 Majority 47 seats 47 Max. 57 Probabilities % CPBC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | BC Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Nechako Lakes CPBC safe >99%
2. Cariboo-Chilcotin CPBC safe >99%
3. Peace River North CPBC safe >99%
4. Abbotsford West CPBC safe >99%
5. Abbotsford South CPBC safe >99%
6. West Kelowna-Peachland CPBC safe >99%
7. Chilliwack North CPBC safe >99%
8. Kamloops-North Thompson CPBC safe >99%
9. Prince George-Mackenzie CPBC safe >99%
10. Prince George-Valemount CPBC safe >99%
11. Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream CPBC safe >99%
12. Vancouver-Quilchena CPBC safe >99%
13. Peace River South CPBC safe >99%
14. Kelowna-Mission CPBC safe >99%
15. Penticton-Summerland CPBC safe >99%
16. Salmon Arm-Shuswap CPBC safe >99%
17. West Vancouver-Capilano CPBC safe >99%
18. Surrey South CPBC safe >99%
19. Delta South CPBC safe >99%
20. Langley-Abbotsford CPBC safe >99%
21. Columbia River-Revelstoke CPBC safe >99%
22. Kelowna Centre CPBC safe >99%
23. Abbotsford-Mission CPBC safe >99%
24. Surrey-White Rock CPBC safe >99%
25. Vernon-Lumby CPBC safe >99%
26. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky CPBC safe >99%
27. Prince George-North Cariboo CPBC safe >99%
28. Kootenay-Rockies CPBC safe >99%
29. Kamloops Centre CPBC safe >99%
30. Richmond-Bridgeport CPBC likely 99%
31. Vancouver-Yaletown CPBC likely 99%
32. Skeena CPBC likely 98%
33. Langley-Willowbrook CPBC likely 97%
34. Richmond-Queensborough CPBC likely 95%
35. Langley-Walnut Grove CPBC leaning 87%
36. Ladysmith-Oceanside CPBC leaning 87%
37. Fraser-Nicola CPBC leaning 85%
38. Boundary-Similkameen CPBC leaning 84%
39. North Island CPBC leaning 81%
40. Vancouver-Langara CPBC leaning 80%
41. Nanaimo-Lantzville CPBC leaning 76%
42. Surrey-Serpentine River Toss up 70%
43. North Vancouver-Seymour Toss up 69%
44. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake Toss up 67%
45. Surrey-Cloverdale Toss up 61%
46. Richmond-Steveston Toss up 61%
47. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Toss up 52%
48. Port Moody-Burquitlam Toss up 48%
49. Richmond Centre Toss up 38%
50. Vancouver-Point Grey Toss up 36%
51. Maple Ridge East Toss up 33%
52. Kootenay Central NDP leaning 28%
53. Surrey-Panorama NDP leaning 27%
54. Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP leaning 22%
55. Saanich North and the Islands GRN leaning 17%
56. Courtenay-Comox NDP leaning 15%
57. Surrey-Guildford NDP leaning 13%
58. Surrey-Newton NDP leaning 13%
59. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP leaning 13%
60. Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP likely 8%
61. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP likely 7%
62. Bulkley Valley-Stikine NDP likely 7%
63. New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP likely 6%
64. Burnaby Centre NDP likely 5%
65. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP likely 5%
66. Delta North NDP likely 5%
67. Burnaby North NDP likely 4%
68. Cowichan Valley NDP likely 3%
69. North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP likely 3%
70. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP likely 2%
71. Surrey North NDP likely 2%
72. Burnaby East NDP likely 1%
73. Vancouver-Kensington NDP likely 1%
74. Saanich South NDP likely 1%
75. Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP likely 1%
76. Vancouver-South Granville NDP likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Nechako Lakes CPBC safe
2. Cariboo-Chilcotin CPBC safe
3. Peace River North CPBC safe
4. Abbotsford West CPBC safe
5. Abbotsford South CPBC safe
6. West Kelowna-Peachland CPBC safe
7. Chilliwack North CPBC safe
8. Kamloops-North Thompson CPBC safe
9. Prince George-Mackenzie CPBC safe
10. Prince George-Valemount CPBC safe
11. Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream CPBC safe
12. Vancouver-Quilchena CPBC safe
13. Peace River South CPBC safe
14. Kelowna-Mission CPBC safe
15. Penticton-Summerland CPBC safe
16. Salmon Arm-Shuswap CPBC safe
17. West Vancouver-Capilano CPBC safe
18. Surrey South CPBC safe
19. Delta South CPBC safe
20. Langley-Abbotsford CPBC safe
21. Columbia River-Revelstoke CPBC safe
22. Kelowna Centre CPBC safe
23. Abbotsford-Mission CPBC safe
24. Surrey-White Rock CPBC safe
25. Vernon-Lumby CPBC safe
26. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky CPBC safe
27. Prince George-North Cariboo CPBC safe
28. Kootenay-Rockies CPBC safe
29. Kamloops Centre CPBC safe
30. Richmond-Bridgeport CPBC likely
31. Vancouver-Yaletown CPBC likely
32. Skeena CPBC likely
33. Langley-Willowbrook CPBC likely
34. Richmond-Queensborough CPBC likely
35. Langley-Walnut Grove CPBC leaning
36. Ladysmith-Oceanside CPBC leaning
37. Fraser-Nicola CPBC leaning
38. Boundary-Similkameen CPBC leaning
39. North Island CPBC leaning
40. Vancouver-Langara CPBC leaning
41. Nanaimo-Lantzville CPBC leaning
42. Surrey-Serpentine River Toss up
43. North Vancouver-Seymour Toss up
44. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake Toss up
45. Surrey-Cloverdale Toss up
46. Richmond-Steveston Toss up
47. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Toss up
48. Port Moody-Burquitlam Toss up
49. Richmond Centre Toss up
50. Vancouver-Point Grey Toss up
51. Maple Ridge East Toss up
52. Kootenay Central NDP leaning
53. Surrey-Panorama NDP leaning
54. Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP leaning
55. Saanich North and the Islands GRN leaning
56. Courtenay-Comox NDP leaning
57. Surrey-Guildford NDP leaning
58. Surrey-Newton NDP leaning
59. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP leaning
60. Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP likely
61. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP likely
62. Bulkley Valley-Stikine NDP likely
63. New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP likely
64. Burnaby Centre NDP likely
65. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP likely
66. Delta North NDP likely
67. Burnaby North NDP likely
68. Cowichan Valley NDP likely
69. North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP likely
70. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP likely
71. Surrey North NDP likely
72. Burnaby East NDP likely
73. Vancouver-Kensington NDP likely
74. Saanich South NDP likely
75. Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP likely
76. Vancouver-South Granville NDP likely