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British columbia

BC Conservative Party





Last update: February 9, 2025

LeaderJohn Rustad
Popular vote in 202443.3%
Current vote projection43.2% ± 3.9%
Current seat projection44 [30-56]

Vote projection | February 9, 2025

34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 39.3% ▼ 43.2% ± 3.9% ▼ Max. 47.1% ▼ Probabilities % CPBC

Seat projection | February 9, 2025

14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 30 ▼ 44 ▼ Majority 47 seats Max. 56 ▼ Probabilities % CPBC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | BC Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Peace River North CPBC safe >99%
2. Peace River South CPBC safe >99%
3. Cariboo-Chilcotin CPBC safe >99%
4. Nechako Lakes CPBC safe >99%
5. Abbotsford South CPBC safe >99%
6. Prince George-Mackenzie CPBC safe >99%
7. Kamloops-North Thompson CPBC safe >99%
8. Prince George-North Cariboo CPBC safe >99%
9. Salmon Arm-Shuswap CPBC safe >99%
10. West Kelowna-Peachland CPBC safe >99%
11. West Vancouver-Capilano CPBC safe >99%
12. Langley-Abbotsford CPBC safe >99%
13. Richmond-Bridgeport CPBC safe >99%
14. Kelowna-Mission CPBC safe >99%
15. Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream CPBC safe >99%
16. Abbotsford West CPBC safe >99%
17. Prince George-Valemount CPBC safe >99%
18. Fraser-Nicola CPBC likely >99%
19. Chilliwack North CPBC likely >99%
20. Surrey South CPBC likely >99%
21. Richmond Centre CPBC likely 99%
22. Vancouver-Quilchena CPBC likely 98%
23. Kootenay-Rockies CPBC likely 96%
24. Bulkley Valley-Stikine CPBC likely 95%
25. Abbotsford-Mission CPBC likely 95%
26. Delta South CPBC likely 94%
27. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake CPBC likely 92%
28. Kamloops Centre CPBC likely 91%
29. Surrey-White Rock CPBC leaning 87%
30. Surrey North CPBC leaning 85%
31. Richmond-Queensborough CPBC leaning 85%
32. Boundary-Similkameen CPBC leaning 83%
33. Skeena CPBC leaning 81%
34. Langley-Walnut Grove CPBC leaning 78%
35. Langley-Willowbrook CPBC leaning 73%
36. Columbia River-Revelstoke CPBC leaning 70%
37. Surrey-Cloverdale Toss up 66%
38. North Island Toss up 64%
39. Surrey-Serpentine River Toss up 63%
40. Surrey-Panorama Toss up 58%
41. Penticton-Summerland Toss up 58%
42. Courtenay-Comox Toss up 51%
43. Maple Ridge East Toss up 51%
44. Kelowna Centre Toss up 51%
45. Surrey-Guildford Toss up 49%
46. Juan de Fuca-Malahat Toss up 45%
47. Surrey City Centre Toss up 40%
48. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Toss up 39%
49. Vernon-Lumby Toss up 37%
50. Vancouver-Langara Toss up 35%
51. Richmond-Steveston Toss up 35%
52. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky Toss up 31%
53. Cowichan Valley NDP leaning 28%
54. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP leaning 27%
55. Vancouver-Yaletown NDP leaning 16%
56. Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP leaning 12%
57. Surrey-Newton NDP leaning 11%
58. Ladysmith-Oceanside NDP leaning 10%
59. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP likely 6%
60. Kootenay Central NDP likely 6%
61. Burnaby North NDP likely 5%
62. Saanich North and the Islands GRN leaning 5%
63. Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP likely 5%
64. Burnaby East NDP likely 4%
65. Port Moody-Burquitlam NDP likely 2%
66. Delta North NDP likely 2%
67. Burnaby Centre NDP likely 2%
68. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP likely 2%
69. Kootenay-Monashee NDP likely 2%
70. Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP likely 1%
71. Langford-Highlands NDP likely 1%