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British columbia

BC Conservative Party





Last update: July 12, 2024

LeaderJohn Rustad
Popular vote in 20201.9%
Current vote projection35.6% ± 5.1%
Current seat projection37 [27-49]

Vote projection | July 12, 2024

24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 30.4% 35.6% ± 5.1% Max. 40.7% Probabilities % BCC

Seat projection | July 12, 2024

13 18 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 27 37 Majority 47 seats Max. 49 Probabilities % BCC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | BC Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Peace River South BCC safe >99%
2. Peace River North BCC safe >99%
3. West Kelowna-Peachland BCC safe >99%
4. Nechako Lakes BCC safe >99%
5. Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream BCC safe >99%
6. Prince George-Valemount BCC safe >99%
7. Cariboo-Chilcotin BCC safe >99%
8. Salmon Arm-Shuswap BCC safe >99%
9. Kelowna-Mission BCC safe >99%
10. Vancouver-Quilchena BCC safe >99%
11. Kamloops-North Thompson BCC safe >99%
12. Abbotsford West BCC safe >99%
13. West Vancouver-Capilano BCC safe >99%
14. Prince George-North Cariboo BCC safe >99%
15. Kelowna Centre BCC safe >99%
16. Kootenay-Rockies BCC safe >99%
17. Vernon-Lumby BCC likely 99%
18. Langley-Abbotsford BCC likely 99%
19. Chilliwack North BCC likely 99%
20. Surrey South BCC likely 99%
21. Columbia River-Revelstoke BCC likely 98%
22. Prince George-Mackenzie BCC likely 97%
23. Penticton-Summerland BCC likely 97%
24. Abbotsford South BCC likely 96%
25. Delta South BCC likely 96%
26. Surrey-White Rock BCC likely 90%
27. Kamloops Centre BCC leaning 85%
28. Abbotsford-Mission BCC leaning 85%
29. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake BCC leaning 84%
30. Richmond-Bridgeport BCC leaning 84%
31. Langley-Walnut Grove BCC leaning 82%
32. Vancouver-Yaletown BCC leaning 82%
33. Langley-Willowbrook BCC leaning 76%
34. Richmond-Queensborough Toss up 69%
35. Boundary-Similkameen Toss up 64%
36. Skeena Toss up 62%
37. Ladysmith-Oceanside Toss up 52%
38. Vancouver-Langara Toss up 50%
39. Fraser-Nicola Toss up 43%
40. North Island Toss up 39%
41. Richmond-Steveston Toss up 33%
42. Surrey-Serpentine River Toss up 32%
43. Surrey-Cloverdale NDP leaning 28%
44. Richmond Centre NDP leaning 25%
45. Port Moody-Burquitlam NDP leaning 23%
46. Vancouver-Point Grey NDP leaning 22%
47. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky GRN leaning 21%
48. Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP leaning 17%
49. Kootenay Central NDP leaning 12%
50. Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP likely 7%
51. Surrey-Panorama NDP likely 6%
52. North Vancouver-Seymour NDP likely 3%
53. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain NDP likely 3%
54. Surrey-Guildford NDP likely 2%
55. Bulkley Valley-Stikine NDP likely 2%
56. Burnaby Centre NDP likely 2%
57. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP likely 2%
58. Burnaby North NDP likely 1%
59. Delta North NDP likely 1%
60. Surrey-Newton NDP likely 1%
61. Cowichan Valley NDP leaning 1%
62. Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP likely 1%
63. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP likely 1%
64. Courtenay-Comox NDP likely 1%
65. Maple Ridge East NDP likely 1%
66. Burnaby East NDP likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Peace River South BCC safe
2. Peace River North BCC safe
3. West Kelowna-Peachland BCC safe
4. Nechako Lakes BCC safe
5. Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream BCC safe
6. Prince George-Valemount BCC safe
7. Cariboo-Chilcotin BCC safe
8. Salmon Arm-Shuswap BCC safe
9. Kelowna-Mission BCC safe
10. Vancouver-Quilchena BCC safe
11. Kamloops-North Thompson BCC safe
12. Abbotsford West BCC safe
13. West Vancouver-Capilano BCC safe
14. Prince George-North Cariboo BCC safe
15. Kelowna Centre BCC safe
16. Kootenay-Rockies BCC safe
17. Vernon-Lumby BCC likely
18. Langley-Abbotsford BCC likely
19. Chilliwack North BCC likely
20. Surrey South BCC likely
21. Columbia River-Revelstoke BCC likely
22. Prince George-Mackenzie BCC likely
23. Penticton-Summerland BCC likely
24. Abbotsford South BCC likely
25. Delta South BCC likely
26. Surrey-White Rock BCC likely
27. Kamloops Centre BCC leaning
28. Abbotsford-Mission BCC leaning
29. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake BCC leaning
30. Richmond-Bridgeport BCC leaning
31. Langley-Walnut Grove BCC leaning
32. Vancouver-Yaletown BCC leaning
33. Langley-Willowbrook BCC leaning
34. Richmond-Queensborough Toss up
35. Boundary-Similkameen Toss up
36. Skeena Toss up
37. Ladysmith-Oceanside Toss up
38. Vancouver-Langara Toss up
39. Fraser-Nicola Toss up
40. North Island Toss up
41. Richmond-Steveston Toss up
42. Surrey-Serpentine River Toss up
43. Surrey-Cloverdale NDP leaning
44. Richmond Centre NDP leaning
45. Port Moody-Burquitlam NDP leaning
46. Vancouver-Point Grey NDP leaning
47. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky GRN leaning
48. Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP leaning
49. Kootenay Central NDP leaning
50. Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP likely
51. Surrey-Panorama NDP likely
52. North Vancouver-Seymour NDP likely
53. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain NDP likely
54. Surrey-Guildford NDP likely
55. Bulkley Valley-Stikine NDP likely
56. Burnaby Centre NDP likely
57. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP likely
58. Burnaby North NDP likely
59. Delta North NDP likely
60. Surrey-Newton NDP likely
61. Cowichan Valley NDP leaning
62. Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP likely
63. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP likely
64. Courtenay-Comox NDP likely
65. Maple Ridge East NDP likely
66. Burnaby East NDP likely