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British columbia

BC Conservative Party





Last update: September 13, 2025

LeaderJohn Rustad
Popular vote in 202443.3%
Current vote projection43.5% ± 5.3%
Current seat projection46 [28-62]

Vote projection | September 13, 2025

32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 38.2% ▼ 43.5% ± 5.3% ▼ Max. 48.8% ▼ Probabilities % CPBC

Seat projection | September 13, 2025

6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 3% 2% 1% Min. 28 ▼ 46 ▼ Majority 47 seats Max. 62 ▼ Probabilities % CPBC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | BC Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Peace River North CPBC safe >99%
2. Peace River South CPBC safe >99%
3. Cariboo-Chilcotin CPBC safe >99%
4. Nechako Lakes CPBC safe >99%
5. Prince George-Mackenzie CPBC safe >99%
6. Kamloops-North Thompson CPBC safe >99%
7. Prince George-North Cariboo CPBC safe >99%
8. Abbotsford South CPBC safe >99%
9. West Kelowna-Peachland CPBC safe >99%
10. Salmon Arm-Shuswap CPBC safe >99%
11. West Vancouver-Capilano CPBC safe >99%
12. Langley-Abbotsford CPBC safe >99%
13. Richmond-Bridgeport CPBC safe >99%
14. Kelowna-Mission CPBC safe >99%
15. Abbotsford West CPBC likely >99%
16. Prince George-Valemount CPBC likely >99%
17. Fraser-Nicola CPBC likely 99%
18. Chilliwack North CPBC likely 99%
19. Surrey South CPBC likely 99%
20. Richmond Centre CPBC likely 98%
21. Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream CPBC likely 97%
22. Kootenay-Rockies CPBC likely 96%
23. Bulkley Valley-Stikine CPBC likely 95%
24. Abbotsford-Mission CPBC likely 93%
25. Delta South CPBC likely 92%
26. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake CPBC leaning 90%
27. Kamloops Centre CPBC leaning 89%
28. Vancouver-Quilchena CPBC leaning 87%
29. Surrey-White Rock CPBC leaning 85%
30. Surrey North CPBC leaning 85%
31. Richmond-Queensborough CPBC leaning 83%
32. Boundary-Similkameen CPBC leaning 82%
33. Skeena CPBC leaning 81%
34. Langley-Walnut Grove CPBC leaning 77%
35. Langley-Willowbrook CPBC leaning 73%
36. Columbia River-Revelstoke CPBC leaning 72%
37. Surrey-Cloverdale Toss up 68%
38. North Island Toss up 66%
39. Surrey-Serpentine River Toss up 65%
40. Surrey-Panorama Toss up 61%
41. Penticton-Summerland Toss up 61%
42. Maple Ridge East Toss up 57%
43. Courtenay-Comox Toss up 57%
44. Kelowna Centre Toss up 55%
45. Surrey-Guildford Toss up 54%
46. Juan de Fuca-Malahat Toss up 51%
47. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Toss up 46%
48. Surrey City Centre Toss up 46%
49. Vernon-Lumby Toss up 44%
50. Richmond-Steveston Toss up 43%
51. Vancouver-Langara Toss up 42%
52. Cowichan Valley Toss up 36%
53. Surrey-Fleetwood Toss up 36%
54. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky Toss up 35%
55. Vancouver-Yaletown NDP leaning 24%
56. Ladysmith-Oceanside NDP leaning 19%
57. Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP leaning 19%
58. Surrey-Newton NDP leaning 19%
59. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP leaning 13%
60. Burnaby North NDP leaning 12%
61. Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP leaning 12%
62. Kootenay Central NDP leaning 12%
63. Saanich North and the Islands GRN leaning 9%
64. Burnaby East NDP likely 8%
65. Port Moody-Burquitlam NDP likely 7%
66. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP likely 6%
67. Delta North NDP likely 6%
68. Burnaby Centre NDP likely 5%
69. Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP likely 5%
70. Kootenay-Monashee NDP likely 5%
71. Langford-Highlands NDP likely 3%
72. Port Coquitlam NDP likely 2%
73. Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP likely 2%
74. North Vancouver-Seymour NDP likely 1%
75. Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP likely 1%