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British columbia

BC Conservative Party





Last update: June 18, 2025

LeaderJohn Rustad
Popular vote in 202443.3%
Current vote projection43.1% ± 5.3%
Current seat projection43 [26-60]

Vote projection | June 18, 2025

31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 37.8% ▼ 43.1% ± 5.3% ▼ Max. 48.4% ▼ Probabilities % CPBC

Seat projection | June 18, 2025

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 3% 2% 1% Min. 26 ▼ 43 ▼ Majority 47 seats Max. 60 ▼ Probabilities % CPBC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | BC Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Peace River North CPBC safe >99%
2. Peace River South CPBC safe >99%
3. Cariboo-Chilcotin CPBC safe >99%
4. Nechako Lakes CPBC safe >99%
5. Prince George-Mackenzie CPBC safe >99%
6. Prince George-North Cariboo CPBC safe >99%
7. Kamloops-North Thompson CPBC safe >99%
8. Abbotsford South CPBC safe >99%
9. Salmon Arm-Shuswap CPBC safe >99%
10. West Kelowna-Peachland CPBC safe >99%
11. West Vancouver-Capilano CPBC safe >99%
12. Langley-Abbotsford CPBC safe >99%
13. Richmond-Bridgeport CPBC safe >99%
14. Kelowna-Mission CPBC likely >99%
15. Abbotsford West CPBC likely >99%
16. Prince George-Valemount CPBC likely >99%
17. Fraser-Nicola CPBC likely 99%
18. Chilliwack North CPBC likely 99%
19. Surrey South CPBC likely 99%
20. Richmond Centre CPBC likely 98%
21. Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream CPBC likely 96%
22. Kootenay-Rockies CPBC likely 96%
23. Bulkley Valley-Stikine CPBC likely 93%
24. Abbotsford-Mission CPBC likely 91%
25. Delta South CPBC likely 90%
26. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake CPBC leaning 87%
27. Kamloops Centre CPBC leaning 86%
28. Vancouver-Quilchena CPBC leaning 84%
29. Surrey North CPBC leaning 81%
30. Surrey-White Rock CPBC leaning 81%
31. Richmond-Queensborough CPBC leaning 80%
32. Boundary-Similkameen CPBC leaning 78%
33. Skeena CPBC leaning 78%
34. Langley-Walnut Grove CPBC leaning 73%
35. Langley-Willowbrook Toss up 68%
36. Columbia River-Revelstoke Toss up 67%
37. Surrey-Cloverdale Toss up 63%
38. North Island Toss up 60%
39. Surrey-Serpentine River Toss up 60%
40. Surrey-Panorama Toss up 56%
41. Penticton-Summerland Toss up 56%
42. Maple Ridge East Toss up 51%
43. Courtenay-Comox Toss up 50%
44. Kelowna Centre Toss up 50%
45. Surrey-Guildford Toss up 48%
46. Juan de Fuca-Malahat Toss up 45%
47. Surrey City Centre Toss up 41%
48. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Toss up 41%
49. Vernon-Lumby Toss up 39%
50. Vancouver-Langara Toss up 37%
51. Richmond-Steveston Toss up 37%
52. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky Toss up 33%
53. Surrey-Fleetwood Toss up 31%
54. Cowichan Valley Toss up 31%
55. Vancouver-Yaletown NDP leaning 20%
56. Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP leaning 16%
57. Ladysmith-Oceanside NDP leaning 15%
58. Surrey-Newton NDP leaning 15%
59. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP leaning 10%
60. Burnaby North NDP likely 9%
61. Kootenay Central NDP likely 9%
62. Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP likely 9%
63. Saanich North and the Islands GRN leaning 7%
64. Burnaby East NDP likely 7%
65. Port Moody-Burquitlam NDP likely 5%
66. Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP likely 5%
67. Delta North NDP likely 5%
68. Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP likely 4%
69. Burnaby Centre NDP likely 4%
70. Kootenay-Monashee NDP likely 3%
71. Langford-Highlands NDP likely 2%
72. Port Coquitlam NDP likely 2%
73. Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP likely 2%