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British columbia

BC Conservative Party





Last update: November 10, 2024

LeaderJohn Rustad
Popular vote in 202443.3%
Current vote projection43.3% ± 0.0%
Current seat projection44 [44-44]

Vote projection | November 10, 2024

43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Probabilities % CPBC

Seat projection | November 10, 2024

44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Probabilities % CPBC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | BC Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Peace River North CPBC safe >99%
2. Peace River South CPBC safe >99%
3. Cariboo-Chilcotin CPBC safe >99%
4. Nechako Lakes CPBC safe >99%
5. Abbotsford South CPBC safe >99%
6. Prince George-Mackenzie CPBC safe >99%
7. Kamloops-North Thompson CPBC safe >99%
8. Abbotsford West CPBC safe >99%
9. Prince George-North Cariboo CPBC safe >99%
10. Langley-Abbotsford CPBC safe >99%
11. Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream CPBC safe >99%
12. Salmon Arm-Shuswap CPBC safe >99%
13. Kelowna-Mission CPBC safe >99%
14. West Kelowna-Peachland CPBC safe >99%
15. West Vancouver-Capilano CPBC safe >99%
16. Richmond-Bridgeport CPBC safe >99%
17. Prince George-Valemount CPBC safe >99%
18. Chilliwack North CPBC safe >99%
19. Surrey South CPBC safe >99%
20. Fraser-Nicola CPBC safe >99%
21. Richmond Centre CPBC likely >99%
22. Kootenay-Rockies CPBC likely >99%
23. Vancouver-Quilchena CPBC likely >99%
24. Abbotsford-Mission CPBC likely 99%
25. Delta South CPBC likely 99%
26. Chilliwack-Cultus Lake CPBC likely 98%
27. Bulkley Valley-Stikine CPBC likely 98%
28. Kamloops Centre CPBC likely 98%
29. Surrey-White Rock CPBC likely 96%
30. Richmond-Queensborough CPBC likely 93%
31. Surrey North CPBC likely 92%
32. Boundary-Similkameen CPBC likely 92%
33. Langley-Walnut Grove CPBC leaning 87%
34. Skeena CPBC leaning 87%
35. Langley-Willowbrook CPBC leaning 81%
36. Columbia River-Revelstoke CPBC leaning 78%
37. Surrey-Cloverdale CPBC leaning 73%
38. North Island CPBC leaning 72%
39. Surrey-Serpentine River Toss up 68%
40. Penticton-Summerland Toss up 62%
41. Surrey-Panorama Toss up 62%
42. Maple Ridge East Toss up 54%
43. Courtenay-Comox Toss up 53%
44. Kelowna Centre Toss up 52%
45. Surrey-Guildford Toss up 49%
46. Juan de Fuca-Malahat Toss up 44%
47. Surrey City Centre Toss up 38%
48. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Toss up 36%
49. Vernon-Lumby Toss up 32%
50. Vancouver-Langara Toss up 31%
51. Richmond-Steveston Toss up 31%
52. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky GRN leaning 24%
53. Surrey-Fleetwood NDP leaning 21%
54. Cowichan Valley NDP leaning 20%
55. Vancouver-Yaletown NDP likely 9%
56. Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP likely 7%
57. Surrey-Newton NDP likely 6%
58. Ladysmith-Oceanside NDP likely 3%
59. Kootenay Central NDP likely 2%
60. Burnaby North NDP likely 1%
61. Saanich North and the Islands GRN leaning 1%
62. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP likely 1%
63. Burnaby East NDP likely 1%
64. Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP likely 1%