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British columbia

Surrey-Guildford


MLA: Garry Begg (NDP)
Latest projection: February 9, 2025
Toss up
Surrey-Guildford 47% ± 8% NDP 47% ± 8% CPBC 4% ± 3% BCG NDP 2024 46.93% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 9, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Surrey-Guildford 51% NDP 49% CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | February 9, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Surrey-Guildford

CPBC 47% ± 8% NDP 47% ± 8% BCG 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Surrey-Guildford 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 56% CPBC 18% BCG 6% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 58% CPBC 18% BCG 6% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 54% CPBC 21% BCG 6% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 52% CPBC 27% BCG 5% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 48% CPBC 35% BCG 5% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 50% CPBC 33% BCG 6% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 50% CPBC 33% BCG 6% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 49% CPBC 35% BCG 6% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 49% CPBC 36% BCG 6% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 49% CPBC 36% BCG 5% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 53% CPBC 40% BCG 5% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 50% CPBC 40% BCG 5% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 50% CPBC 40% BCG 5% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 52% CPBC 43% BCG 5% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 52% CPBC 43% BCG 5% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 52% CPBC 43% BCG 5% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 52% CPBC 43% BCG 5% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 52% CPBC 43% BCG 5% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 51% CPBC 44% BCG 5% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 52% CPBC 43% BCG 5% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 52% CPBC 43% BCG 5% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 51% CPBC 44% BCG 5% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 51% CPBC 44% BCG 5% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 52% CPBC 44% BCG 5% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 52% CPBC 44% BCG 5% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 52% CPBC 43% BCG 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 53% CPBC 43% BCG 5% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 53% CPBC 42% BCG 5% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 53% CPBC 43% BCG 5% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 52% CPBC 43% BCG 5% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 53% CPBC 42% BCG 5% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 53% CPBC 43% BCG 5% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 52% CPBC 42% BCG 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 53% CPBC 42% BCG 5% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 54% CPBC 41% BCG 5% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 54% CPBC 41% BCG 5% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 54% CPBC 41% BCG 5% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 54% CPBC 41% BCG 5% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 47% NDP 47% BCG 4% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 47% CPBC 47% BCG 4% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 47% CPBC 47% BCG 4% 2025-02-09

Odds of winning | Surrey-Guildford

BCU <1% CPBC 49% NDP 51% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 45% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 81% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 69% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 22% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 32% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 16% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 17% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 12% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 39% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 91% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 97% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 96% CPBC 4% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 95% CPBC 5% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 95% CPBC 5% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 90% CPBC 10% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 91% CPBC 9% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 91% CPBC 9% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 90% CPBC 10% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 90% CPBC 10% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 88% CPBC 12% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 87% CPBC 13% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 86% CPBC 14% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 88% CPBC 12% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 90% CPBC 10% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 92% CPBC 8% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 94% CPBC 6% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 95% CPBC 5% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2023-12-31 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 92% CPBC 8% BCG <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 94% CPBC 6% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 94% CPBC 6% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 94% CPBC 6% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 96% CPBC 4% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 54% NDP 46% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 51% CPBC 49% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 51% CPBC 49% BCG <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Surrey-Guildford



2017 2020 2024 Proj. NDP 47% ± 8% 49.4% 60.1% 46.9% CPBC 47% ± 8% 0.0% 0.1% 46.8% BCG 4% ± 3% 10.0% 8.0% 4.3% IND 2% ± 2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% LIB 0% ± 0% 38.1% 30.1% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.