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British columbia

Vancouver-Quilchena


MLA: Dallas Brodie (IND)
Latest projection: February 9, 2025
CPBC likely
Vancouver-Quilchena 51% ± 7%▼ CPBC 39% ± 7% NDP 8% ± 4% BCG CPBC 2024 51.58% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 9, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vancouver-Quilchena 98%▼ CPBC 2%▲ NDP <1% BCG Odds of winning | February 9, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Vancouver-Quilchena

CPBC 51% ± 7% NDP 39% ± 7% BCG 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver-Quilchena 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 29% CPBC 23% BCG 13% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 31% CPBC 23% BCG 13% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 27% CPBC 26% BCG 12% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 32% NDP 26% BCG 11% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 40% NDP 24% BCG 11% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 37% NDP 25% BCG 12% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 38% NDP 25% BCG 12% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 41% NDP 24% BCG 13% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 41% NDP 25% BCG 13% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 42% NDP 25% BCG 12% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 55% NDP 30% BCG 13% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 57% NDP 30% BCG 13% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 57% NDP 30% BCG 13% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 56% NDP 30% BCG 14% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 57% NDP 30% BCG 13% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 57% NDP 30% BCG 13% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 57% NDP 30% BCG 13% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 57% NDP 30% BCG 13% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 57% NDP 30% BCG 13% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 57% NDP 31% BCG 12% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 57% NDP 31% BCG 12% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 58% NDP 30% BCG 12% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 58% NDP 30% BCG 12% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 58% NDP 30% BCG 12% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 58% NDP 30% BCG 12% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 57% NDP 31% BCG 12% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 57% NDP 31% BCG 12% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 56% NDP 31% BCG 12% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 57% NDP 31% BCG 12% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 57% NDP 31% BCG 12% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 56% NDP 31% BCG 13% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 56% NDP 31% BCG 13% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 56% NDP 31% BCG 14% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 55% NDP 31% BCG 14% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 55% NDP 31% BCG 14% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 55% NDP 31% BCG 14% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 54% NDP 31% BCG 14% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 54% NDP 32% BCG 14% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 52% NDP 39% BCG 8% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 52% NDP 39% BCG 8% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 51% NDP 39% BCG 8% 2025-02-09

Odds of winning | Vancouver-Quilchena

BCU <1% CPBC 98% NDP 2% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 21% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 21% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 20% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 45% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 12% NDP 10% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 60% NDP 6% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 96% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2023-12-31 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 98% NDP 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Vancouver-Quilchena



2017 2020 2024 Proj. CPBC 51% ± 7% 0.0% 0.0% 51.6% NDP 39% ± 7% 27.3% 28.5% 38.9% BCG 8% ± 4% 14.2% 14.6% 7.8% IND 2% ± 2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% LIB 0% ± 0% 57.3% 56.8% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.