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British columbia

Fraser-Nicola


MLA: Tony Luck (CPBC)
Latest projection: February 9, 2025
CPBC likely
Fraser-Nicola 54% ± 8% CPBC 36% ± 7% NDP 9% ± 5% BCG CPBC 2024 54.34% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 9, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Fraser-Nicola >99% CPBC <1% NDP <1% BCG Odds of winning | February 9, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Fraser-Nicola

CPBC 54% ± 8% NDP 36% ± 7% BCG 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Fraser-Nicola 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 41% CPBC 21% BCG 10% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 44% CPBC 21% BCG 9% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 39% CPBC 24% BCG 9% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 38% CPBC 30% BCG 8% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 37% CPBC 36% BCG 8% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 38% CPBC 33% BCG 9% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 39% CPBC 34% BCG 9% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 37% CPBC 36% BCG 10% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 38% CPBC 37% BCG 10% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 38% CPBC 38% BCG 9% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 47% NDP 41% BCG 9% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 48% NDP 43% BCG 9% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 48% NDP 43% BCG 9% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 47% NDP 43% BCG 9% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 49% NDP 43% BCG 8% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 49% NDP 43% BCG 8% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 49% NDP 43% BCG 8% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 49% NDP 43% BCG 8% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 49% NDP 43% BCG 8% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 49% NDP 43% BCG 8% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 49% NDP 43% BCG 8% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 49% NDP 43% BCG 8% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 49% NDP 43% BCG 8% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 49% NDP 43% BCG 8% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 49% NDP 43% BCG 8% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 48% NDP 44% BCG 8% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 48% NDP 44% BCG 8% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 47% NDP 45% BCG 8% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 48% NDP 44% BCG 8% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 48% NDP 44% BCG 8% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 47% NDP 45% BCG 8% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 47% NDP 45% BCG 8% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 47% NDP 44% BCG 9% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 47% NDP 44% BCG 9% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 47% NDP 44% BCG 9% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 47% NDP 44% BCG 9% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 47% NDP 44% BCG 9% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 48% NDP 43% BCG 9% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 55% NDP 36% BCG 9% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 54% NDP 36% BCG 9% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 54% NDP 36% BCG 9% 2025-02-09

Odds of winning | Fraser-Nicola

BCU <1% CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 45% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 81% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 63% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 34% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 52% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 21% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 22% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 24% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 58% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 94% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 87% CPBC 13% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 91% CPBC 9% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 54% CPBC 46% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 76% CPBC 24% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 77% CPBC 23% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 57% CPBC 43% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 54% CPBC 46% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 52% CPBC 48% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 84% NDP 16% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 75% NDP 25% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 74% NDP 26% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 73% NDP 27% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 80% NDP 20% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 80% NDP 20% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 80% NDP 20% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 80% NDP 20% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 85% NDP 15% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 85% NDP 15% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 85% NDP 15% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 85% NDP 15% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 85% NDP 15% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 83% NDP 17% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 81% NDP 19% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 76% NDP 24% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 74% NDP 26% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 63% NDP 37% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2023-12-31 CPBC 70% NDP 30% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 CPBC 70% NDP 30% BCG <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 CPBC 65% NDP 35% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 65% NDP 35% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 65% NDP 35% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 68% NDP 32% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 68% NDP 32% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 67% NDP 33% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 68% NDP 32% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 75% NDP 25% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Fraser-Nicola



2017 2020 2024 Proj. CPBC 54% ± 8% 0.0% 1.3% 54.3% NDP 36% ± 7% 38.2% 41.8% 36.4% BCG 9% ± 5% 16.8% 12.3% 9.3% LIB 0% ± 0% 42.0% 35.9% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.