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British columbia

Kelowna Centre


MLA : Kristina Loewen (CPBC)
Latest projection: December 20, 2025
Toss up

Recent electoral history | Kelowna Centre


2017 2020 2024 Proj. NDP 44% ± 8% 24.9% 32.3% 42.7% CPBC 43% ± 8% 1.5% 0.0% 42.8% CEN 5% ± 3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BCG 5% ± 4% 17.2% 15.4% 4.3% ONE 3% ± 3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.

Kelowna Centre 36% 53% 44% ± 8% NDP 34% 51% 43% ± 8% CPBC 2% 8% 5% ± 3% CEN 1% 9% 5% ± 4% BCG CPBC 2024 42.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kelowna Centre 60%▲ NDP 40%▼ CPBC <1% CENOdds of winning | December 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Kelowna Centre

CEN 5% ± 3% CPBC 43% ± 8% NDP 44% ± 8% BCG 5% ± 4% ONE 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Kelowna Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-04-01 Election 2024 CEN CPBC NDP BCG ONE December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 CPBC 31% NDP 29% CEN 27% BCG 10% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 36% NDP 28% CEN 23% BCG 9% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 42% NDP 27% CEN 19% BCG 9% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 39% NDP 28% CEN 20% BCG 10% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 40% NDP 28% CEN 18% BCG 10% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 43% NDP 27% CEN 16% BCG 11% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 44% NDP 27% CEN 16% BCG 11% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 45% NDP 28% CEN 15% BCG 10% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 57% NDP 30% BCG 10% CEN 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 51% NDP 31% BCG 10% CEN 8% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 51% NDP 31% BCG 10% CEN 8% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 51% NDP 33% BCG 11% CEN 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 52% NDP 33% BCG 10% CEN 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 52% NDP 33% BCG 10% CEN 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 52% NDP 33% BCG 10% CEN 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 52% NDP 33% BCG 10% CEN 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 52% NDP 33% BCG 10% CEN 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 52% NDP 33% BCG 9% CEN 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 52% NDP 33% BCG 9% CEN 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 52% NDP 33% BCG 9% CEN 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 53% NDP 33% BCG 9% CEN 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 52% NDP 33% BCG 9% CEN 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 52% NDP 33% BCG 9% CEN 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 51% NDP 34% BCG 10% CEN 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 51% NDP 34% BCG 10% CEN 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 50% NDP 35% BCG 10% CEN 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 51% NDP 34% BCG 10% CEN 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 51% NDP 34% BCG 10% CEN 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 50% NDP 34% BCG 10% CEN 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 50% NDP 34% BCG 10% CEN 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 50% NDP 34% BCG 10% CEN 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 50% NDP 34% BCG 10% CEN 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 49% NDP 31% BCG 9% CEN 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 49% NDP 31% BCG 9% CEN 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 49% NDP 31% BCG 9% CEN 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 50% NDP 31% BCG 9% CEN 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 43% NDP 43% BCG 4% CEN 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 43% NDP 43% BCG 4% CEN 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 43% NDP 43% BCG 4% CEN 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 43% CPBC 43% BCG 4% CEN 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC 43% NDP 42% BCG 4% CEN 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 44% CPBC 43% CEN 5% BCG 5% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 44% CPBC 43% CEN 5% BCG 5% 2025-12-20

Odds of winning | Kelowna Centre

CEN <1% CPBC 40% NDP 60% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-04-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP 5% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 4% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 3% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 38% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 60% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 65% CPBC 18% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 65% CPBC 18% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 66% CPBC 18% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 79% CPBC 17% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 54% NDP 31% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 90% NDP 9% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 97% NDP 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 98% NDP 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-12-20 2024-03-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 56% NDP 44% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 52% NDP 48% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 51% NDP 49% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 50% CPBC 50% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 55% NDP 45% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 59% CPBC 41% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 60% CPBC 40% BCG <1% 2024-09-26