logo
British columbia


Kelowna-Mission


MLA: Renee Merrifield (BCU)


Latest projection: December 5, 2023

Toss up
Kelowna-Mission 31% ± 7%▼ 29% ± 7%▼ 27% ± 8%▲ 13% ± 5%▼ BCU 2020 50.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 5, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Kelowna-Mission 53%▼ 28%▼ 19%▲ Odds of winning | December 5, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Kelowna-Mission

BCU 29% ± 7% BCC 27% ± 8% NDP 31% ± 7% BCG 13% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Kelowna-Mission 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 BCU BCC NDP BCG

Odds of winning | Kelowna-Mission

BCU 28% BCC 19% NDP 53% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 BCU BCC NDP

Recent electoral history | Kelowna-Mission



2017 2020 Proj. BCU 57.2% 50.8% 29% ± 7% NDP 21.2% 32.4% 31% ± 7% BCG 14.2% 16.8% 13% ± 5% BCC 7.3% 0.0% 27% ± 8%