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British columbia

Ladysmith-Oceanside


MLA: Stephanie Higginson (NDP)
Latest projection: November 10, 2024
NDP likely
Ladysmith-Oceanside 41% ± 0% NDP 35% ± 0%▼ CPBC 16% ± 0% IND 7% ± 0% BCG NDP 2024 41.49% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 10, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ladysmith-Oceanside 97%▲ NDP 3%▼ CPBC <1% INDOdds of winning | November 10, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Ladysmith-Oceanside

CPBC 35% ± 0% NDP 41% ± 0% BCG 7% ± 0% IND 16% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Ladysmith-Oceanside 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG IND November 10, 2024 2023-12-31 NDP 40% CPBC 24% BCG 14% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 42% CPBC 24% BCG 13% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 39% CPBC 28% BCG 13% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 38% CPBC 33% BCG 12% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 37% NDP 36% BCG 11% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 38% CPBC 34% BCG 12% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 38% CPBC 35% BCG 12% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 37% NDP 37% BCG 13% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 38% NDP 37% BCG 12% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 39% NDP 38% BCG 11% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 43% NDP 42% BCG 13% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 41% NDP 41% BCG 13% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 41% NDP 41% BCG 13% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 41% CPBC 41% BCG 13% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 41% CPBC 41% BCG 13% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 42% NDP 41% BCG 12% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 42% NDP 41% BCG 12% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 42% NDP 41% BCG 12% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 43% NDP 40% BCG 12% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 44% NDP 39% BCG 12% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 44% NDP 39% BCG 12% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 44% NDP 39% BCG 12% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 45% NDP 39% BCG 12% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 44% NDP 39% BCG 12% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 44% NDP 39% BCG 12% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 43% NDP 40% BCG 12% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 43% NDP 40% BCG 12% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 43% NDP 40% BCG 12% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 43% NDP 40% BCG 12% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 44% NDP 40% BCG 12% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 43% NDP 40% BCG 12% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 43% NDP 40% BCG 12% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 42% NDP 39% BCG 13% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 42% NDP 39% BCG 13% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 42% NDP 39% BCG 14% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 42% NDP 39% BCG 14% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 42% NDP 39% BCG 14% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 43% NDP 39% BCG 14% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 41% CPBC 36% BCG 7% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 41% CPBC 35% BCG 7% 2024-11-10

Odds of winning | Ladysmith-Oceanside

BCU <1% CPBC 3% NDP 97% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG November 10, 2024 2023-12-31 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 75% CPBC 25% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 55% NDP 45% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 70% CPBC 30% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 71% CPBC 29% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 52% NDP 48% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 56% NDP 44% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 59% NDP 41% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 60% NDP 40% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 52% NDP 48% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 51% NDP 49% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 51% CPBC 49% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 50% CPBC 50% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 59% NDP 41% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 60% NDP 40% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 61% NDP 39% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 67% NDP 33% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 86% NDP 14% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 87% NDP 13% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 87% NDP 13% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 86% NDP 14% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 84% NDP 16% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 82% NDP 18% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 76% NDP 24% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 73% NDP 27% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2023-12-31 CPBC 68% NDP 32% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 CPBC 75% NDP 25% BCG <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 CPBC 77% NDP 23% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 72% NDP 28% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 73% NDP 27% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 73% NDP 27% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 72% NDP 28% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 66% NDP 34% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 66% NDP 34% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 65% NDP 35% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 78% NDP 22% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 95% CPBC 5% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Ladysmith-Oceanside



2017 2020 2024 Proj. NDP 41% ± 0% 31.9% 44.1% 41.5% CPBC 35% ± 0% 0.0% 3.1% 35.5% IND 16% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BCG 7% ± 0% 26.8% 18.6% 6.7% LIB 0% ± 0% 40.5% 32.7% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.