logo
logo
British columbia
British Columbia flag

Surrey City Centre

Latest update: February 18, 2026
N
MLA: Amna Shah
New Democratic Party
NDP leaning
Projection — Surrey City Centre → Regional projection — Metro Vancouver → All British Columbia provincial districts → British Columbia projection map → British Columbia polls → Back to 338Canada British Columbia home → British Columbia simulator → Riding roulette! →

Recent electoral history | Surrey City Centre


2017 2020 2024 Projection NDP 45% ± 9% 58.9% 69.5% 46.7% CPBC 40% ± 8% 0.0% 0.0% 45.1% BCG 9% ± 5% 10.5% 0.0% 6.1% ONE 4% ± 4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BCU 0% ± 0% 29.6% 28.4% 0.0%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


British Columbia flag

338Canada Surrey City Centre projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Surrey City Centre 37% 54% 45% ± 9% ▼ NDP 32% 48% 40% ± 8% ▼ CPBC 4% 14% 9% ± 5% ▲ BCG 0% 9% 4% ± 4% ONE NDP 2024 46.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Surrey City Centre 78%▲ NDP 22%▼ CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Surrey City Centre

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 40% ± 8% NDP 45% ± 9% BCG 9% ± 5% ONE 4% ± 4% CEN 2% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Surrey City Centre 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP 62% CPBC 19% BCU 15% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 60% CPBC 24% BCU 11% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 56% CPBC 32% BCU 8% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 58% CPBC 30% BCU 8% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 58% CPBC 30% BCU 7% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 56% CPBC 32% BCU 7% BCG 2% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 57% CPBC 33% BCU 6% BCG 2% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 57% CPBC 33% BCU 6% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 60% CPBC 37% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 61% CPBC 38% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 61% CPBC 38% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 61% CPBC 38% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 61% CPBC 38% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 61% CPBC 38% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 61% CPBC 38% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 61% CPBC 38% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 60% CPBC 39% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 61% CPBC 38% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 61% CPBC 38% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 60% CPBC 39% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 60% CPBC 39% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 60% CPBC 39% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 61% CPBC 38% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 61% CPBC 38% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 62% CPBC 38% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 62% CPBC 37% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 61% CPBC 38% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 61% CPBC 38% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 62% CPBC 37% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 62% CPBC 38% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 62% CPBC 38% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 62% CPBC 37% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 63% CPBC 36% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 63% CPBC 36% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 63% CPBC 36% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 63% CPBC 36% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 46% CPBC 46% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 47% CPBC 45% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 47% CPBC 45% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 47% CPBC 45% BCG 6% ONE 2% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 46% CPBC 45% BCG 6% ONE 2% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 47% CPBC 43% BCG 6% ONE 2% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 46% CPBC 43% BCG 7% ONE 2% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP 46% CPBC 42% BCG 7% ONE 4% CEN 2% BCU 0% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 NDP 45% CPBC 40% BCG 9% ONE 4% CEN 2% BCU 0% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Surrey City Centre

BCU <1% CPBC 22% NDP 78% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 98% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 96% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 96% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 94% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2026-02-18 2024-03-26 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 55% CPBC 45% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 62% CPBC 38% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 60% CPBC 40% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 59% CPBC 41% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 54% CPBC 46% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 66% CPBC 34% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 68% CPBC 32% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 72% CPBC 28% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 78% CPBC 22% BCG <1% 2024-09-27