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British columbia


Fraser-Nicola


MLA: Jackie Tegart (BCU)


Latest projection: October 5, 2023

NDP safe
Fraser-Nicola 40% ± 9% 23% ± 7%▼ 20% ± 8%▲ 11% ± 5%▼ 6% ± 4% OTH BCU 2020 41.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 5, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Fraser-Nicola >99%▲ <1%▼ <1% Odds of winning | October 5, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Fraser-Nicola

BCU 23% ± 7% BCC 20% ± 8% NDP 40% ± 9% BCG 11% ± 5% OTH 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Fraser-Nicola 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 BCU BCC NDP BCG OTH

Odds of winning | Fraser-Nicola

BCU <1% BCC <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 BCU BCC NDP

Recent electoral history | Fraser-Nicola



2017 2020 Proj. BCU 41.8% 41.6% 23% ± 7% NDP 38.5% 39.6% 40% ± 9% BCG 16.0% 13.1% 11% ± 5% BCC 0.0% 0.0% 20% ± 8% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 6% ± 4%