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Esquimalt-Colwood

Latest update: February 18, 2026
N
MLA: Darlene Rotchford
New Democratic Party
NDP safe
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Recent electoral history | Esquimalt-Colwood


2017 2020 2024 Projection NDP 48% ± 7% 47.5% 59.4% 51.5% CPBC 25% ± 6% 0.0% 0.0% 29.2% BCG 23% ± 6% 24.7% 23.8% 19.3% BCU 0% ± 0% 26.5% 15.9% 0.0%

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338Canada Esquimalt-Colwood projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Esquimalt-Colwood 41% 55% 48% ± 7% ▼ NDP 19% 31% 25% ± 6% ▼ CPBC 16% 29% 23% ± 6% ▲ BCG NDP 2024 51.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Esquimalt-Colwood >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Esquimalt-Colwood

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 25% ± 6% NDP 48% ± 7% BCG 23% ± 6% ONE 2% ± 2% CEN 2% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Esquimalt-Colwood 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP 53% CPBC 18% BCG 17% BCU 9% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 52% CPBC 20% BCG 15% BCU 10% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 49% CPBC 24% BCG 15% BCU 10% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 50% CPBC 22% BCG 16% BCU 10% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 51% CPBC 22% BCG 16% BCU 9% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 49% CPBC 24% BCG 17% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 50% CPBC 25% BCG 16% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 51% CPBC 25% BCG 15% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 55% CPBC 28% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 56% CPBC 29% BCG 16% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 56% CPBC 29% BCG 16% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 55% CPBC 29% BCG 16% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 55% CPBC 29% BCG 16% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 55% CPBC 30% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 55% CPBC 30% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 55% CPBC 30% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 54% CPBC 31% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 53% CPBC 32% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 53% CPBC 32% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 53% CPBC 32% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 53% CPBC 32% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 53% CPBC 32% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 53% CPBC 32% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 54% CPBC 31% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 54% CPBC 31% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 54% CPBC 31% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 54% CPBC 31% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 54% CPBC 32% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 54% CPBC 31% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 54% CPBC 31% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 53% CPBC 31% BCG 17% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 53% CPBC 30% BCG 17% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 53% CPBC 30% BCG 17% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 53% CPBC 30% BCG 17% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 53% CPBC 30% BCG 17% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 53% CPBC 30% BCG 17% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 51% CPBC 30% BCG 19% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 51% CPBC 29% BCG 19% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 51% CPBC 29% BCG 19% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 51% CPBC 29% BCG 19% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 51% CPBC 30% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 50% CPBC 27% BCG 20% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 50% CPBC 27% BCG 21% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP 49% CPBC 26% BCG 21% ONE 2% CEN 2% BCU 0% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 NDP 48% CPBC 25% BCG 23% ONE 2% CEN 2% BCU 0% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Esquimalt-Colwood

BCU <1% CPBC <1% NDP >99% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP 40% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 74% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 62% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 29% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 40% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 46% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 48% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 50% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 79% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2026-02-18 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27