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British columbia

Saanich South


Latest projection: July 12, 2024
NDP safe
Saanich South 47% ± 7%▼ NDP 28% ± 7%▲ BCC 16% ± 5%▲ BCG 8% ± 4% BCU NDP 2020 54.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saanich South >99% NDP <1% BCC <1% BCG Odds of winning | July 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Saanich South

BCU 8% ± 4% BCC 28% ± 7% NDP 47% ± 7% BCG 16% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Saanich South 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 Election 2024 BCU BCC NDP BCG July 12, 2024 2023-12-31 NDP 52% BCG 17% BCC 16% BCU 14% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 54% BCG 16% BCC 16% BCU 12% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 50% BCC 19% BCG 16% BCU 13% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 49% BCC 25% BCG 14% BCU 9% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 47% BCC 29% BCG 14% BCU 9% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 48% BCC 26% BCG 15% BCU 9% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 48% BCC 26% BCG 15% BCU 8% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 47% BCC 28% BCG 16% BCU 8% 2024-07-12

Odds of winning | Saanich South

BCU <1% BCC <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 Election 2024 BCU BCC NDP July 12, 2024 2023-12-31 NDP >99% BCC <1% BCU <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP >99% BCC <1% BCU <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCC <1% BCU <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCC <1% BCU <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCC <1% BCU <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCC <1% BCU <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCC <1% BCU <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCC <1% BCU <1% 2024-07-12

Recent electoral history | Saanich South



2017 2020 Proj. NDP 41.3% 54.1% 47% ± 7% BCU 31.0% 24.4% 8% ± 4% BCG 26.7% 21.6% 16% ± 5% BCC 0.0% 0.0% 28% ± 7% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto new electoral map.