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British columbia

Saanich South


MLA elect (unofficial): Lana Popham (NDP)

Latest projection: October 20, 2024
NDP safe

Candidates | Saanich South


BC NDP Lana Popham
Conservative Party of BC Adam Kubel
BC Green Party Ned Taylor

Candidates are listed on the Elections BC website here. This list will be updated regularly throughout the campaign.

Saanich South 49% ± 0%▼ NDP 33% ± 0%▼ CPBC 18% ± 0%▲ BCG NDP 2020 54.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 20, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saanich South >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | October 20, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Saanich South

CPBC 33% ± 4% NDP 49% ± 4% BCG 18% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Saanich South 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-09-15 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 Election 2024 Campaign begins CPBC NDP BCG October 20, 2024 2024-09-21 NDP 52% CPBC 33% BCG 14% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 52% CPBC 33% BCG 15% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 51% CPBC 34% BCG 14% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 51% CPBC 35% BCG 14% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 51% CPBC 35% BCG 14% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 51% CPBC 35% BCG 14% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 51% CPBC 36% BCG 14% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 49% CPBC 37% BCG 13% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 49% CPBC 37% BCG 13% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 49% CPBC 37% BCG 13% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 49% CPBC 37% BCG 13% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 49% CPBC 37% BCG 13% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 50% CPBC 37% BCG 13% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 50% CPBC 36% BCG 14% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 50% CPBC 36% BCG 14% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 51% CPBC 36% BCG 14% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 50% CPBC 36% BCG 13% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 50% CPBC 36% BCG 14% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 50% CPBC 36% BCG 14% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 50% CPBC 36% BCG 14% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 49% CPBC 35% BCG 15% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 49% CPBC 35% BCG 15% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 50% CPBC 35% BCG 16% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 50% CPBC 35% BCG 16% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 50% CPBC 35% BCG 16% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 50% CPBC 35% BCG 16% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 49% CPBC 33% BCG 18% 2024-10-20

Odds of winning | Saanich South

BCU <1% CPBC <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-09-15 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 Election 2024 Campaign begins BCU CPBC NDP October 20, 2024 2024-09-21 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCU <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCU <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCU <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCU <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCU <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCU <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-10-20

Recent electoral history | Saanich South



2017 2020 Proj. NDP 41.3% 54.1% 49% ± 0% CPBC 0.0% 0.0% 33% ± 0% BCG 26.7% 21.6% 18% ± 0% BCU 31.0% 24.4% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto new electoral map.