logo
logo
British columbia
British Columbia flag

Nanaimo-Lantzville

Latest update: February 18, 2026
N
MLA: George Anderson
New Democratic Party
NDP likely
Projection — Nanaimo-Lantzville → Regional projection — Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast → All British Columbia provincial districts → British Columbia projection map → British Columbia polls → Back to 338Canada British Columbia home → British Columbia simulator → Riding roulette! →

Recent electoral history | Nanaimo-Lantzville


2017 2020 2024 Projection NDP 49% ± 7% 38.8% 48.0% 51.8% CPBC 35% ± 7% 0.0% 2.1% 39.5% BCG 12% ± 4% 19.7% 20.0% 8.7% BCU 0% ± 0% 40.6% 29.7% 0.0%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


British Columbia flag

338Canada Nanaimo-Lantzville projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Nanaimo-Lantzville 42% 56% 49% ± 7% ▼ NDP 28% 41% 35% ± 7% ▼ CPBC 7% 16% 12% ± 4% ▲ BCG NDP 2024 51.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nanaimo-Lantzville >99%▲ NDP <1%▼ CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Nanaimo-Lantzville

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 35% ± 7% NDP 49% ± 7% BCG 12% ± 4% ONE 3% ± 3% CEN 2% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Nanaimo-Lantzville 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP 43% CPBC 25% BCU 16% BCG 14% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 42% CPBC 31% BCG 13% BCU 13% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 41% CPBC 35% BCG 12% BCU 10% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 42% CPBC 33% BCG 13% BCU 10% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 42% CPBC 33% BCG 14% BCU 9% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 41% CPBC 35% BCG 14% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 41% CPBC 36% BCG 13% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 42% CPBC 37% BCG 12% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 45% CPBC 41% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 45% CPBC 42% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 46% CPBC 42% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 45% CPBC 41% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 45% CPBC 42% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 44% CPBC 43% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 44% CPBC 43% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 44% CPBC 44% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 44% NDP 44% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 46% NDP 42% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 46% NDP 42% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 46% NDP 42% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 46% NDP 42% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 46% NDP 42% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 45% NDP 43% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 45% NDP 43% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 45% NDP 43% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 44% NDP 44% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 45% NDP 43% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 45% NDP 43% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 44% NDP 43% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 44% NDP 43% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 44% NDP 43% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 44% NDP 43% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 43% CPBC 43% BCG 14% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 43% CPBC 43% BCG 14% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 43% CPBC 43% BCG 14% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 43% CPBC 43% BCG 14% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 51% CPBC 40% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 52% CPBC 40% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 52% CPBC 39% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 52% CPBC 39% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 51% CPBC 40% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 51% CPBC 37% BCG 9% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 51% CPBC 37% BCG 10% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP 50% CPBC 36% BCG 10% ONE 2% CEN 2% BCU 0% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 NDP 49% CPBC 35% BCG 12% ONE 3% CEN 2% BCU 0% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Nanaimo-Lantzville

BCU <1% CPBC <1% NDP >99% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 77% CPBC 23% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 94% CPBC 6% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 83% CPBC 17% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 80% CPBC 20% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 79% CPBC 21% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 76% CPBC 24% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 74% CPBC 26% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 74% CPBC 26% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 76% CPBC 24% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 66% CPBC 34% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 57% CPBC 43% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 56% CPBC 44% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 55% CPBC 45% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 51% NDP 49% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 74% NDP 26% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 74% NDP 26% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 76% NDP 24% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 75% NDP 25% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 72% NDP 28% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 69% NDP 31% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 62% NDP 38% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 CPBC 59% NDP 41% BCG <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC 52% NDP 48% BCG <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 CPBC 60% NDP 40% BCG <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 CPBC 63% NDP 37% BCG <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 CPBC 57% NDP 43% BCG <1% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 CPBC 58% NDP 42% BCG <1% 2026-02-18 2024-03-26 CPBC 58% NDP 42% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 56% NDP 44% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 50% CPBC 50% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 51% CPBC 49% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 52% CPBC 48% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 52% CPBC 48% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 96% CPBC 4% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 95% CPBC 5% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-27