logo
logo
British columbia
British Columbia flag

Vancouver-Renfrew

Latest update: December 20, 2025
N
MLA: Adrian Dix
New Democratic Party
NDP safe
Projection — Vancouver-Renfrew → Regional projection — Metro Vancouver → All British Columbia provincial districts → British Columbia projection map → British Columbia polls → Back to 338Canada British Columbia home → Riding roulette! →

Recent electoral history | Vancouver-Renfrew


2017 2020 2024 Projection NDP 62% ± 9% 61.2% 68.8% 63.2% CPBC 29% ± 8% 2.5% 0.0% 30.7% BCG 7% ± 4% 9.5% 9.3% 6.1% BCU 0% ± 0% 26.4% 20.4% 0.0%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


British Columbia flag

338Canada Vancouver-Renfrew projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Vancouver-Renfrew 53% 70% 62% ± 9% NDP 21% 37% 29% ± 8% CPBC 3% 11% 7% ± 4% ▲ BCG NDP 2024 63.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vancouver-Renfrew >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Vancouver-Renfrew

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 29% ± 8% NDP 62% ± 9% BCG 7% ± 4% ONE 1% ± 1% CEN 0% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver-Renfrew 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP 62% CPBC 19% BCU 9% BCG 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 61% CPBC 21% BCU 9% BCG 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 56% CPBC 27% BCU 9% BCG 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 57% CPBC 25% BCU 9% BCG 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 58% CPBC 25% BCU 8% BCG 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 56% CPBC 27% BCU 7% BCG 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 56% CPBC 27% BCG 7% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 57% CPBC 28% BCU 7% BCG 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 61% CPBC 31% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 61% CPBC 32% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 61% CPBC 32% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 61% CPBC 32% BCG 7% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 61% CPBC 32% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 61% CPBC 32% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 61% CPBC 32% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 61% CPBC 32% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 61% CPBC 33% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 62% CPBC 32% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 62% CPBC 32% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 61% CPBC 33% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 61% CPBC 33% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 61% CPBC 33% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 62% CPBC 33% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 62% CPBC 32% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 62% CPBC 32% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 63% CPBC 32% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 62% CPBC 32% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 62% CPBC 32% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 62% CPBC 32% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 62% CPBC 32% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 62% CPBC 32% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 63% CPBC 31% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 63% CPBC 30% BCG 7% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 63% CPBC 30% BCG 7% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 63% CPBC 30% BCG 7% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 63% CPBC 30% BCG 7% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 63% CPBC 31% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 63% CPBC 31% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 63% CPBC 31% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 63% CPBC 31% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 63% CPBC 31% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 62% CPBC 29% BCG 6% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 62% CPBC 29% BCG 7% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20

Odds of winning | Vancouver-Renfrew

BCU <1% CPBC <1% NDP >99% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP 90% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 87% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 64% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 66% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 29% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 31% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 33% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 68% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 87% CPBC 13% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 72% CPBC 28% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-12-20 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26