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British columbia


Vernon-Monashee


MLA: Harwinder Sandhu (NDP)


Latest projection: December 5, 2023

Toss up
Vernon-Monashee 35% ± 9%▲ 34% ± 8%▼ 20% ± 6%▼ 11% ± 4%▼ NDP 2020 36.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 5, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Vernon-Monashee 55%▲ 45%▼ <1% Odds of winning | December 5, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Vernon-Monashee

BCU 20% ± 6% BCC 35% ± 9% NDP 34% ± 8% BCG 11% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Vernon-Monashee 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 BCU BCC NDP BCG

Odds of winning | Vernon-Monashee

BCU <1% BCC 55% NDP 45% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 BCU BCC NDP

Recent electoral history | Vernon-Monashee



2017 2020 Proj. NDP 29.4% 36.6% 34% ± 8% BCU 47.9% 35.0% 20% ± 6% BCG 21.6% 16.0% 11% ± 4% BCC 0.0% 12.4% 35% ± 9%