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Salmon Arm-Shuswap

Latest update: December 20, 2025
C
MLA: David L. Williams
Conservative Party of BC
CPBC safe
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Recent electoral history | Salmon Arm-Shuswap


2017 2020 2024 Projection CPBC 52% ± 8% 0.0% 0.1% 52.1% NDP 32% ± 7% 27.0% 34.1% 30.4% BCG 8% ± 4% 15.8% 14.6% 7.1% ONE 4% ± 4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BCU 0% ± 0% 55.7% 51.2% 0.0%

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338Canada Salmon Arm-Shuswap projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Salmon Arm-Shuswap 44% 60% 52% ± 8% CPBC 24% 39% 32% ± 7% NDP 4% 12% 8% ± 4% BCG 0% 8% 4% ± 4% ONE CPBC 2024 52.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Salmon Arm-Shuswap >99% CPBC <1% NDP <1% BCG Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Salmon Arm-Shuswap

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 52% ± 8% NDP 32% ± 7% BCG 8% ± 4% ONE 4% ± 4% CEN 0% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Salmon Arm-Shuswap 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 CPBC 34% NDP 29% BCU 25% BCG 10% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 39% NDP 28% BCU 22% BCG 9% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 45% NDP 27% BCU 18% BCG 9% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 42% NDP 29% BCU 18% BCG 9% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 43% NDP 29% BCU 17% BCG 10% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 46% NDP 28% BCU 15% BCG 10% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 46% NDP 28% BCU 14% BCG 10% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 47% NDP 28% BCU 14% BCG 9% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 59% NDP 31% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 52% NDP 32% BCG 9% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 52% NDP 32% BCG 9% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 54% NDP 33% BCG 10% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 55% NDP 32% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 55% NDP 32% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 55% NDP 32% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 55% NDP 32% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 55% NDP 32% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 55% NDP 32% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 55% NDP 32% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 55% NDP 32% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 55% NDP 32% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 55% NDP 32% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 55% NDP 33% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 54% NDP 33% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 54% NDP 33% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 53% NDP 34% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 54% NDP 34% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 54% NDP 34% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 53% NDP 34% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 53% NDP 34% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 53% NDP 33% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 53% NDP 33% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 53% NDP 33% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 53% NDP 33% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 53% NDP 33% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 54% NDP 33% BCG 9% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 52% NDP 30% BCG 7% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 52% NDP 30% BCG 7% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 52% NDP 30% BCG 7% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 CPBC 52% NDP 31% ONE 10% BCG 7% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC 52% NDP 30% ONE 10% BCG 7% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 CPBC 52% NDP 32% BCG 8% ONE 4% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 CPBC 52% NDP 32% BCG 8% ONE 4% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20

Odds of winning | Salmon Arm-Shuswap

BCU <1% CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 98% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 96% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 96% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 94% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 56% CPBC 19% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 58% CPBC 18% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 57% CPBC 19% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 74% CPBC 20% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 79% NDP 17% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 97% NDP 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 98% NDP 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-12-20 2024-03-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-26