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British columbia


Boundary-Similkameen


MLA: Roly Russell (NDP)


Latest projection: December 5, 2023

NDP likely
Boundary-Similkameen 45% ± 9%▼ 32% ± 9%▲ 20% ± 7%▼ NDP 2020 49.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 5, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Boundary-Similkameen 96%▼ 4%▲ <1% Odds of winning | December 5, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Boundary-Similkameen

BCU 20% ± 7% BCC 32% ± 9% NDP 45% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Boundary-Similkameen 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 BCU BCC NDP

Odds of winning | Boundary-Similkameen

BCU <1% BCC 4% NDP 96% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 BCU BCC NDP

Recent electoral history | Boundary-Similkameen



2017 2020 Proj. NDP 32.7% 49.9% 45% ± 9% BCU 42.8% 36.7% 20% ± 7% BCC 0.0% 11.2% 32% ± 9% BCG 10.2% 0.0% 1% ± 1% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2%