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British columbia

Boundary-Similkameen


MLA: Donegal Wilson (CPBC)
Latest projection: November 10, 2024
CPBC likely
Boundary-Similkameen 48% ± 0% CPBC 43% ± 0%▲ NDP 6% ± 0% BCG 3% ± 0% IND CPBC 2024 48.39% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 10, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Boundary-Similkameen 92%▼ CPBC 8%▲ NDP <1% BCG Odds of winning | November 10, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Boundary-Similkameen

CPBC 48% ± 0% NDP 43% ± 0% BCG 6% ± 0% IND 3% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Boundary-Similkameen 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG IND November 10, 2024 2023-12-31 NDP 42% CPBC 33% BCG 1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 44% CPBC 34% BCG 1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 40% CPBC 37% BCG 1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 41% CPBC 39% BCG 1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 44% NDP 41% BCG 1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 43% CPBC 41% BCG 1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 43% CPBC 41% BCG 1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 44% NDP 42% BCG 1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 45% NDP 42% BCG 1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 45% NDP 42% BCG 1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 53% NDP 44% BCG 1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 53% NDP 46% BCG 1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 53% NDP 46% BCG 1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 53% NDP 47% BCG 1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 54% NDP 46% BCG 1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 53% NDP 46% BCG 1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 53% NDP 46% BCG 1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 54% NDP 46% BCG 1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 52% NDP 45% BCG 3% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 52% NDP 45% BCG 3% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 52% NDP 46% BCG 3% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 52% NDP 45% BCG 3% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 52% NDP 45% BCG 3% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 51% NDP 46% BCG 3% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 51% NDP 46% BCG 3% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 51% NDP 47% BCG 3% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 50% NDP 47% BCG 3% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 49% NDP 48% BCG 3% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 50% NDP 47% BCG 3% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 50% NDP 47% BCG 3% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 49% NDP 48% BCG 3% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 49% NDP 48% BCG 3% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 49% NDP 47% BCG 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 50% NDP 47% BCG 3% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 50% NDP 47% BCG 3% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 50% NDP 47% BCG 3% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 50% NDP 47% BCG 3% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 50% NDP 47% BCG 3% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 48% NDP 42% BCG 6% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 48% NDP 43% BCG 6% 2024-11-10

Odds of winning | Boundary-Similkameen

BCU <1% CPBC 92% NDP 8% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG November 10, 2024 2023-12-31 NDP 96% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 97% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 97% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 83% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 85% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 86% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 98% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 91% CPBC 9% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 92% CPBC 8% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 94% CPBC 6% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 64% CPBC 36% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 58% CPBC 42% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 65% NDP 35% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 59% CPBC 41% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 60% CPBC 40% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 64% NDP 36% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 68% NDP 32% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 70% NDP 30% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 90% NDP 10% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 83% NDP 17% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 82% NDP 18% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 82% NDP 18% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 87% NDP 13% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 87% NDP 13% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 87% NDP 13% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 88% NDP 12% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 83% NDP 17% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 84% NDP 16% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 84% NDP 16% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 84% NDP 16% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 82% NDP 18% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 82% NDP 18% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 79% NDP 21% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 73% NDP 27% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 71% NDP 29% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2023-12-31 CPBC 59% NDP 41% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 CPBC 67% NDP 33% BCG <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 CPBC 67% NDP 33% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 61% NDP 39% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 61% NDP 39% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 61% NDP 39% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 65% NDP 35% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 65% NDP 35% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 65% NDP 35% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 65% NDP 35% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 72% NDP 28% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 93% NDP 7% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 92% NDP 8% BCG <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Boundary-Similkameen



2017 2020 2024 Proj. CPBC 48% ± 0% 0.0% 11.2% 48.4% NDP 43% ± 0% 32.7% 49.9% 42.6% BCG 6% ± 0% 10.2% 0.0% 5.9% IND 3% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% LIB 0% ± 0% 42.8% 36.7% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.