logo
British columbia

Nanaimo-Gabriola Island


Latest projection: June 1, 2024
NDP safe
Nanaimo-Gabriola Island 47% ± 7%▲ NDP 21% ± 5% BCG 21% ± 7%▼ BCC 9% ± 4%▲ BCU NDP 2020 53.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 1, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nanaimo-Gabriola Island >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% BCC Odds of winning | June 1, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Nanaimo-Gabriola Island

BCU 9% ± 4% BCC 21% ± 7% NDP 47% ± 7% BCG 21% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Nanaimo-Gabriola Island 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 BCU BCC NDP BCG June 1, 2024

Odds of winning | Nanaimo-Gabriola Island

BCU <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 BCU NDP June 1, 2024

Recent electoral history | Nanaimo-Gabriola Island



2017 2020 Proj. NDP 51.3% 53.1% 47% ± 7% BCG 22.3% 28.7% 21% ± 5% BCU 25.3% 18.2% 9% ± 4% BCC 0.0% 0.0% 21% ± 7% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto new electoral map.