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Recent electoral history | Nanaimo-Gabriola Island


2017 2020 2024 2026 Projection NDP 48% ± 0% 51.3% 53.1% 52.8% 48.1% CPBC 36% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 34.6% 35.9% BCG 16% ± 0% 22.3% 28.7% 12.6% 16.0% BCU 0% ± 0% 25.3% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0%
PartiesCandidates
CPBC Mark MacDonald
NDP Sheila Malcolmson
BCG Anna Mary McKenzie
Candidate nominations closed at 1 p.m. on October 3, 2026. Found an error or omission? Please email candidats@qc125.com. For the complete list of candidates, visit Elections BC.

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338Canada Nanaimo-Gabriola Island projection

Latest update: October 25, 2026

Nanaimo-Gabriola Island 48% 48% 48% ± 0% ▲ NDP 36% 36% 36% ± 0% ▼ CPBC 16% 16% 16% ± 0% ▼ BCG NDP 2024 48.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 25, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nanaimo-Gabriola Island >99%▲ NDP <1%▼ CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | October 25, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada British Columbia Projection | Nanaimo-Gabriola Island

Odds of winning | Nanaimo-Gabriola Island