logo
logo
British columbia
British Columbia flag

Nanaimo-Gabriola Island

Latest update: February 18, 2026
N
MLA: Sheila Malcolmson
New Democratic Party
NDP safe
Projection — Nanaimo-Gabriola Island → Regional projection — Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast → All British Columbia provincial districts → British Columbia projection map → British Columbia polls → Back to 338Canada British Columbia home → British Columbia simulator → Riding roulette! →

Recent electoral history | Nanaimo-Gabriola Island


2017 2020 2024 Projection NDP 50% ± 7% 51.3% 53.1% 52.8% CPBC 30% ± 6% 0.0% 0.0% 34.6% BCG 16% ± 6% 22.3% 28.7% 12.6% BCU 0% ± 0% 25.3% 18.2% 0.0%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


British Columbia flag

338Canada Nanaimo-Gabriola Island projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Nanaimo-Gabriola Island 43% 57% 50% ± 7% ▼ NDP 24% 36% 30% ± 6% ▼ CPBC 10% 21% 16% ± 6% ▲ BCG NDP 2024 52.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nanaimo-Gabriola Island >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Nanaimo-Gabriola Island

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 30% ± 6% NDP 50% ± 7% BCG 16% ± 6% ONE 3% ± 3% CEN 2% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Nanaimo-Gabriola Island 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP 49% BCG 23% CPBC 17% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 49% BCG 21% CPBC 20% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 46% CPBC 23% BCG 21% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 47% BCG 21% CPBC 21% BCU 9% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 48% BCG 22% CPBC 21% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 46% BCG 23% CPBC 23% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 47% CPBC 23% BCG 22% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 48% CPBC 24% BCG 20% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 51% CPBC 26% BCG 21% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 52% CPBC 27% BCG 21% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 52% CPBC 27% BCG 21% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 51% CPBC 27% BCG 22% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 51% CPBC 28% BCG 21% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 51% CPBC 28% BCG 21% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 51% CPBC 28% BCG 21% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 51% CPBC 29% BCG 21% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 51% CPBC 29% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 49% CPBC 30% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 49% CPBC 30% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 49% CPBC 31% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 49% CPBC 31% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 49% CPBC 30% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 50% CPBC 29% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 51% CPBC 29% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 50% CPBC 29% BCG 21% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 50% CPBC 29% BCG 21% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 49% CPBC 29% BCG 23% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 49% CPBC 28% BCG 23% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 49% CPBC 28% BCG 23% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 49% CPBC 28% BCG 23% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 49% CPBC 28% BCG 23% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 47% CPBC 30% BCG 23% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 52% CPBC 35% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 53% CPBC 35% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 53% CPBC 35% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 53% CPBC 35% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 52% CPBC 35% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 52% CPBC 33% BCG 13% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 51% CPBC 32% BCG 14% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP 51% CPBC 31% BCG 14% ONE 2% CEN 2% BCU 0% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 16% ONE 3% CEN 2% BCU 0% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Nanaimo-Gabriola Island

BCU <1% CPBC <1% NDP >99% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2026-02-18 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-27