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British columbia

Nanaimo-Gabriola Island


MLA: Sheila Malcolmson (NDP)
Latest projection: February 9, 2025
NDP safe
Nanaimo-Gabriola Island 53% ± 7% NDP 35% ± 6% CPBC 13% ± 5% BCG NDP 2024 52.75% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 9, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nanaimo-Gabriola Island >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | February 9, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Nanaimo-Gabriola Island

CPBC 35% ± 6% NDP 53% ± 7% BCG 13% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Nanaimo-Gabriola Island 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 50% BCG 24% CPBC 14% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 52% BCG 23% CPBC 14% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 49% BCG 23% CPBC 17% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 49% BCG 21% CPBC 20% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 46% CPBC 23% BCG 21% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 47% BCG 21% CPBC 21% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 48% BCG 22% CPBC 21% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 46% BCG 23% CPBC 23% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 47% CPBC 23% BCG 22% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 48% CPBC 24% BCG 20% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 51% CPBC 26% BCG 21% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 52% CPBC 27% BCG 21% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 52% CPBC 27% BCG 21% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 51% CPBC 27% BCG 22% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 51% CPBC 28% BCG 21% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 51% CPBC 28% BCG 21% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 51% CPBC 28% BCG 21% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 51% CPBC 29% BCG 21% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 51% CPBC 29% BCG 20% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 49% CPBC 30% BCG 20% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 49% CPBC 30% BCG 20% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 49% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 49% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 49% CPBC 30% BCG 20% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 50% CPBC 29% BCG 20% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 51% CPBC 29% BCG 20% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 50% CPBC 29% BCG 21% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 50% CPBC 29% BCG 21% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 49% CPBC 29% BCG 23% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 49% CPBC 28% BCG 23% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 49% CPBC 28% BCG 23% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 49% CPBC 28% BCG 23% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 49% CPBC 28% BCG 23% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 47% CPBC 30% BCG 23% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 52% CPBC 35% BCG 13% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 53% CPBC 35% BCG 13% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 53% CPBC 35% BCG 13% 2025-02-09

Odds of winning | Nanaimo-Gabriola Island

BCU <1% CPBC <1% NDP >99% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-02-09 2023-12-31 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Nanaimo-Gabriola Island



2017 2020 2024 Proj. NDP 53% ± 7% 51.3% 53.1% 52.8% CPBC 35% ± 6% 0.0% 0.0% 34.6% BCG 13% ± 5% 22.3% 28.7% 12.6% LIB 0% ± 0% 25.3% 18.2% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.