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Delta South

Latest update: December 20, 2025
C
MLA: Ian Paton
Conservative Party of BC
CPBC leaning
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Recent electoral history | Delta South


2017 2020 2024 Projection CPBC 52% ± 9% 0.0% 0.0% 55.1% NDP 44% ± 9% 21.5% 34.5% 44.9% BCG 1% ± 1% 9.5% 14.5% 0.0% BCU 0% ± 0% 44.4% 51.0% 0.0%

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338Canada Delta South projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Delta South 43% 61% 52% ± 9% CPBC 36% 53% 44% ± 9% ▼ NDP CPBC 2024 55.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Delta South 84%▼ CPBC 16%▲ NDP <1% BCG Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Delta South

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 52% ± 9% NDP 44% ± 9% BCG 1% ± 1% ONE 1% ± 1% CEN 0% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Delta South 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 BCU 33% NDP 28% CPBC 28% BCG 9% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 33% BCU 30% NDP 27% BCG 9% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 37% NDP 28% BCU 26% BCG 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 34% NDP 29% BCU 27% BCG 9% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 35% NDP 29% BCU 25% BCG 9% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 38% NDP 29% BCU 22% BCG 10% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 39% NDP 29% BCU 22% BCG 10% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 40% NDP 29% BCU 21% BCG 9% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 53% NDP 36% BCG 10% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 55% NDP 36% BCG 10% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 55% NDP 36% BCG 10% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 54% NDP 36% BCG 10% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 55% NDP 36% BCG 10% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 55% NDP 36% BCG 10% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 55% NDP 36% BCG 10% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 55% NDP 36% BCG 10% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 61% NDP 39% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 60% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 60% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 61% NDP 39% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 61% NDP 39% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 61% NDP 39% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 61% NDP 39% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 60% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 60% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 59% NDP 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 60% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 60% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 60% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 60% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 60% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 59% NDP 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 59% NDP 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 59% NDP 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 58% NDP 42% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 58% NDP 42% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 55% NDP 45% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 55% NDP 45% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 55% NDP 45% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 CPBC 55% NDP 45% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC 56% NDP 44% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 CPBC 52% NDP 45% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 CPBC 52% NDP 44% BCG 1% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20

Odds of winning | Delta South

BCU <1% CPBC 84% NDP 16% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 38% CPBC 9% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 38% CPBC 9% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 38% CPBC 8% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 47% CPBC 4% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 17% NDP 9% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 67% NDP 5% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 91% NDP 6% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 80% NDP 12% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 85% NDP 14% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 96% NDP 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 97% NDP 3% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 97% NDP 3% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-12-20 2024-03-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 94% NDP 6% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 90% NDP 10% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 92% NDP 8% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 85% NDP 15% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 84% NDP 16% BCG <1% 2024-09-26