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British columbia

Surrey-Fleetwood


MLA: Jagrup Brar (NDP)
Latest projection: June 18, 2025
Toss up
Surrey-Fleetwood 49% ± 9% NDP 45% ± 9% CPBC 7% ± 4% BCG NDP 2024 48.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Surrey-Fleetwood 69%▼ NDP 31%▲ CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | June 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Surrey-Fleetwood

CPBC 45% ± 9% NDP 49% ± 9% BCG 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Surrey-Fleetwood 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG June 18, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 54% CPBC 19% BCG 6% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 56% CPBC 19% BCG 6% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 52% CPBC 23% BCG 6% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 51% CPBC 28% BCG 5% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 49% CPBC 35% BCG 5% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 51% CPBC 32% BCG 5% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 52% CPBC 32% BCG 6% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 50% CPBC 35% BCG 6% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 50% CPBC 35% BCG 6% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 50% CPBC 36% BCG 5% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 54% CPBC 40% BCG 5% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 54% CPBC 41% BCG 5% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 54% CPBC 41% BCG 5% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 54% CPBC 41% BCG 5% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 54% CPBC 41% BCG 5% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 54% CPBC 41% BCG 5% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 54% CPBC 41% BCG 5% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 54% CPBC 41% BCG 5% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 54% CPBC 42% BCG 5% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 55% CPBC 41% BCG 5% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 55% CPBC 41% BCG 5% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 54% CPBC 42% BCG 4% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 54% CPBC 42% BCG 4% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 54% CPBC 42% BCG 4% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 54% CPBC 41% BCG 4% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 55% CPBC 41% BCG 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 55% CPBC 41% BCG 5% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 55% CPBC 40% BCG 5% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 55% CPBC 41% BCG 4% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 55% CPBC 41% BCG 5% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 55% CPBC 40% BCG 5% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 55% CPBC 40% BCG 5% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 55% CPBC 40% BCG 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 55% CPBC 40% BCG 5% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 56% CPBC 39% BCG 5% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 56% CPBC 39% BCG 5% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 56% CPBC 39% BCG 5% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 56% CPBC 39% BCG 5% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 48% CPBC 45% BCG 6% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 49% CPBC 45% BCG 6% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 49% CPBC 45% BCG 7% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 49% CPBC 45% BCG 7% 2025-06-18

Odds of winning | Surrey-Fleetwood

BCU <1% CPBC 31% NDP 69% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG June 18, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2025-06-18 2023-12-31 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 74% CPBC 26% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 79% CPBC 21% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 73% CPBC 27% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 69% CPBC 31% BCG <1% 2024-09-23

Recent electoral history | Surrey-Fleetwood



2017 2020 2024 Proj. NDP 49% ± 9% 52.2% 61.8% 48.6% CPBC 45% ± 9% 0.0% 0.5% 44.9% BCG 7% ± 4% 10.8% 8.1% 6.5% LIB 0% ± 0% 36.7% 29.4% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.