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Cowichan Valley

Latest update: December 20, 2025
N
MLA: Debra Toporowski
New Democratic Party
NDP leaning
Projection — Cowichan Valley → Regional projection — Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast → All British Columbia provincial districts → British Columbia projection map → British Columbia polls → Back to 338Canada British Columbia home → Riding roulette! →

Recent electoral history | Cowichan Valley


2017 2020 2024 Projection NDP 40% ± 8% 35.8% 44.7% 40.5% CPBC 35% ± 7% 0.0% 0.0% 37.6% BCG 21% ± 6% 31.9% 38.9% 19.8% BCU 0% ± 0% 28.4% 16.4% 0.0%

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338Canada Cowichan Valley projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Cowichan Valley 32% 47% 40% ± 8% NDP 28% 43% 35% ± 7% ▼ CPBC 15% 28% 21% ± 6% BCG NDP 2024 40.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Cowichan Valley 77%▲ NDP 23%▼ CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Cowichan Valley

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 35% ± 7% NDP 40% ± 8% BCG 21% ± 6% ONE 2% ± 2% CEN 0% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Cowichan Valley 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP 38% BCG 32% CPBC 21% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 38% BCG 29% CPBC 24% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 37% BCG 28% CPBC 27% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 38% BCG 29% CPBC 24% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 37% BCG 30% CPBC 24% BCU 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 36% BCG 31% CPBC 26% BCU 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 38% BCG 29% CPBC 26% BCU 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 39% CPBC 27% BCG 27% BCU 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 41% BCG 31% CPBC 27% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 39% BCG 30% CPBC 26% BCU 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 39% BCG 30% CPBC 26% BCU 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 41% BCG 32% CPBC 27% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 41% BCG 31% CPBC 28% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 41% BCG 30% CPBC 29% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 41% BCG 30% CPBC 29% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 41% BCG 30% CPBC 29% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 41% BCG 30% CPBC 29% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 39% CPBC 31% BCG 30% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 39% CPBC 31% BCG 30% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 39% CPBC 31% BCG 30% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 39% CPBC 31% BCG 30% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 40% CPBC 31% BCG 30% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 40% CPBC 31% BCG 30% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 40% CPBC 30% BCG 30% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 40% CPBC 30% BCG 30% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 41% BCG 30% CPBC 30% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 40% CPBC 30% BCG 30% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 40% CPBC 30% BCG 30% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 40% BCG 31% CPBC 29% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 40% BCG 31% CPBC 29% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 39% BCG 33% CPBC 29% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 39% BCG 33% CPBC 29% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 39% BCG 33% CPBC 28% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 39% BCG 33% CPBC 28% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 39% BCG 34% CPBC 28% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 39% BCG 34% CPBC 28% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 40% CPBC 38% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 41% CPBC 38% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 40% CPBC 37% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 41% CPBC 37% BCG 20% ONE 2% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 40% CPBC 38% BCG 20% ONE 2% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 40% CPBC 36% BCG 21% ONE 2% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 40% CPBC 35% BCG 21% ONE 2% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20

Odds of winning | Cowichan Valley

BCU <1% CPBC 23% NDP 77% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 83% BCG 17% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 85% BCG 15% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 85% BCG 15% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 95% BCG 5% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 92% BCG 8% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 97% BCG 3% CPBC <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 94% CPBC 3% BCG 2% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 96% BCG 3% CPBC <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 93% BCG 6% CPBC <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 83% BCG 16% CPBC 1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 95% BCG 4% CPBC 1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG 1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 97% BCG 3% CPBC <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 96% BCG 4% CPBC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 96% BCG 4% CPBC <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 95% BCG 5% CPBC <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 96% BCG 4% CPBC <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 97% BCG 2% CPBC <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 97% BCG 2% CPBC 1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 97% BCG 2% CPBC 1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 98% BCG 2% CPBC 1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 94% CPBC 3% BCG 2% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 95% CPBC 3% BCG 2% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 95% CPBC 3% BCG 2% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 95% CPBC 3% BCG 2% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 95% CPBC 3% BCG 2% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 96% CPBC 2% BCG 2% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 97% BCG 2% CPBC 1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 97% BCG 2% CPBC 1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 98% BCG 1% CPBC 1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 97% BCG 2% CPBC 1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 97% BCG 2% CPBC 1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 95% BCG 4% CPBC 1% 2025-12-20 2024-03-26 NDP 95% BCG 4% CPBC 1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 86% BCG 13% CPBC 1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 85% BCG 15% CPBC 1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 81% BCG 18% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 81% BCG 18% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 79% BCG 20% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 79% BCG 20% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 77% CPBC 23% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 80% CPBC 20% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 72% CPBC 28% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 69% CPBC 31% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 64% CPBC 36% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 76% CPBC 24% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 77% CPBC 23% BCG <1% 2024-09-26