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British columbia

Oak Bay-Gordon Head


MLA: Diana Gibson (NDP)
Latest projection: February 9, 2025
NDP safe
Oak Bay-Gordon Head 49% ± 7% NDP 29% ± 6% CPBC 22% ± 6% BCG NDP 2024 49.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 9, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Oak Bay-Gordon Head >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | February 9, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Oak Bay-Gordon Head

CPBC 29% ± 6% NDP 49% ± 7% BCG 22% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Oak Bay-Gordon Head 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 48% BCG 22% CPBC 14% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 51% BCG 21% CPBC 14% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 47% BCG 21% CPBC 18% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 47% CPBC 23% BCG 19% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 44% CPBC 27% BCG 18% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 46% CPBC 25% BCG 19% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 46% CPBC 25% BCG 20% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 44% CPBC 26% BCG 20% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 45% CPBC 27% BCG 20% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 45% CPBC 28% BCG 19% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 48% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 49% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 49% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 49% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 48% CPBC 32% BCG 20% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 48% CPBC 33% BCG 19% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 48% CPBC 33% BCG 19% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 48% CPBC 33% BCG 19% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 46% CPBC 36% BCG 19% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 44% CPBC 37% BCG 19% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 44% CPBC 37% BCG 19% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 44% CPBC 37% BCG 19% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 44% CPBC 37% BCG 19% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 44% CPBC 37% BCG 18% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 45% CPBC 37% BCG 18% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 45% CPBC 36% BCG 19% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 45% CPBC 36% BCG 19% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 46% CPBC 36% BCG 19% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 45% CPBC 36% BCG 19% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 45% CPBC 36% BCG 19% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 45% CPBC 36% BCG 19% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 45% CPBC 36% BCG 19% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 44% CPBC 35% BCG 21% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 44% CPBC 35% BCG 21% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 44% CPBC 34% BCG 21% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 44% CPBC 34% BCG 21% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 44% CPBC 34% BCG 21% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 42% CPBC 37% BCG 21% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 49% CPBC 29% BCG 22% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 49% CPBC 29% BCG 22% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 49% CPBC 29% BCG 22% 2025-02-09

Odds of winning | Oak Bay-Gordon Head

BCU <1% CPBC <1% NDP >99% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 7% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 34% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 28% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 6% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 9% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 3% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 4% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 4% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 22% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 80% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 92% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 92% CPBC 8% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 92% CPBC 8% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 92% CPBC 8% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 92% CPBC 8% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 94% CPBC 6% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 96% CPBC 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2023-12-31 NDP 96% CPBC 4% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 96% CPBC 4% BCG <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 84% CPBC 16% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Oak Bay-Gordon Head



2017 2020 2024 Proj. NDP 49% ± 7% 23.6% 51.1% 49.1% CPBC 29% ± 6% 0.0% 0.0% 28.9% BCG 22% ± 6% 52.2% 25.5% 22.0% LIB 0% ± 0% 23.8% 22.9% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.