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British columbia


Vancouver-Quilchena


MLA: Kevin Falcon (BCU)


Latest projection: October 5, 2023

Toss up
Vancouver-Quilchena 34% ± 8%▼ 32% ± 9%▲ 25% ± 7% 8% ± 4%▼ BCU 2020 56.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 5, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Vancouver-Quilchena 60%▼ 39%▲ 2%▲ Odds of winning | October 5, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Vancouver-Quilchena

BCU 34% ± 8% BCC 32% ± 9% NDP 25% ± 7% BCG 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver-Quilchena 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 BCU BCC NDP BCG

Odds of winning | Vancouver-Quilchena

BCU 60% BCC 39% NDP 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 BCU BCC NDP

Recent electoral history | Vancouver-Quilchena



2017 2020 Proj. BCU 56.0% 56.0% 34% ± 8% NDP 28.0% 28.6% 25% ± 7% BCG 14.8% 15.4% 8% ± 4% BCC 0.0% 0.0% 32% ± 9%