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British columbia


Delta South


MLA: Ian Paton (BCU)


Latest projection: December 5, 2023

Toss up
Delta South 31% ± 8% 31% ± 8%▼ 27% ± 8%▲ 12% ± 5%▼ BCU 2020 51.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 5, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Delta South 44%▼ 44%▼ 13%▲ Odds of winning | December 5, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Delta South

BCU 31% ± 8% BCC 27% ± 8% NDP 31% ± 8% BCG 12% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Delta South 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 BCU BCC NDP BCG

Odds of winning | Delta South

BCU 44% BCC 13% NDP 44% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 BCU BCC NDP

Recent electoral history | Delta South



2017 2020 Proj. BCU 44.1% 51.7% 31% ± 8% NDP 20.7% 33.9% 31% ± 8% BCG 9.3% 14.4% 12% ± 5% BCC 0.0% 0.0% 27% ± 8%