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North Vancouver-Lonsdale

Latest update: February 18, 2026
N
MLA: Bowinn Ma
New Democratic Party
NDP safe
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Recent electoral history | North Vancouver-Lonsdale


2017 2020 2024 Projection NDP 62% ± 7% 45.6% 60.1% 64.9% CPBC 31% ± 7% 0.0% 0.0% 35.1% BCG 3% ± 2% 15.3% 12.8% 0.0% BCU 0% ± 0% 38.0% 27.1% 0.0%

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338Canada North Vancouver-Lonsdale projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

North Vancouver-Lonsdale 55% 69% 62% ± 7% ▼ NDP 24% 37% 31% ± 7% ▼ CPBC NDP 2024 64.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% North Vancouver-Lonsdale >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | North Vancouver-Lonsdale

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 31% ± 7% NDP 62% ± 7% BCG 3% ± 2% ONE 3% ± 3% CEN 2% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | North Vancouver-Lonsdale 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP 55% CPBC 19% BCU 14% BCG 9% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 54% CPBC 25% BCU 11% BCG 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 51% CPBC 31% BCG 8% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 52% CPBC 29% BCG 9% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 53% CPBC 29% BCG 9% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 51% CPBC 31% BCG 9% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 50% CPBC 34% BCG 9% BCU 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 50% CPBC 34% BCG 8% BCU 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 52% CPBC 38% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 52% CPBC 40% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 52% CPBC 40% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 52% CPBC 40% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 56% CPBC 44% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 56% CPBC 44% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 56% CPBC 44% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 56% CPBC 44% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 56% CPBC 44% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 56% CPBC 44% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 56% CPBC 44% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 57% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 57% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 58% CPBC 42% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 57% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 57% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 57% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 57% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 57% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 57% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 58% CPBC 42% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 58% CPBC 42% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 58% CPBC 42% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 58% CPBC 42% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 65% CPBC 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 65% CPBC 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 65% CPBC 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 65% CPBC 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 64% CPBC 36% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 64% CPBC 33% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 63% CPBC 33% BCG 1% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP 63% CPBC 32% ONE 2% CEN 2% BCG 1% BCU 0% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 NDP 62% CPBC 31% BCG 3% ONE 3% CEN 2% BCU 0% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | North Vancouver-Lonsdale

BCU <1% CPBC <1% NDP >99% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 CPBC 3% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 21% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 9% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 14% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 13% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC <1% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 1% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 1% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 7% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 86% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 97% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 96% CPBC 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2026-02-18 2024-03-26 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27