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Victoria-Swan Lake

Latest update: December 20, 2025
N
MLA: Nina Krieger
New Democratic Party
NDP safe
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Recent electoral history | Victoria-Swan Lake


2017 2020 2024 Projection NDP 54% ± 8% 53.6% 59.5% 56.0% BCG 25% ± 7% 29.7% 27.7% 23.2% CPBC 19% ± 6% 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% BCU 0% ± 0% 15.9% 11.4% 0.0%

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338Canada Victoria-Swan Lake projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Victoria-Swan Lake 46% 62% 54% ± 8% ▼ NDP 18% 32% 25% ± 7% ▲ BCG 13% 24% 19% ± 6% CPBC NDP 2024 56.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Victoria-Swan Lake >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% CPBC Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Victoria-Swan Lake

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 19% ± 6% NDP 54% ± 8% BCG 25% ± 7% ONE 1% ± 1% CEN 0% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Victoria-Swan Lake 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP 52% BCG 21% CPBC 18% BCU 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 51% CPBC 20% BCG 19% BCU 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 49% CPBC 23% BCG 19% BCU 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 50% CPBC 21% BCG 20% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 50% CPBC 21% BCG 20% BCU 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 49% CPBC 23% BCG 21% BCU 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 49% CPBC 23% BCG 20% BCU 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 50% CPBC 24% BCG 18% BCU 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 53% CPBC 26% BCG 19% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 54% CPBC 27% BCG 19% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 54% CPBC 27% BCG 19% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 54% CPBC 27% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 51% CPBC 28% BCG 21% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 51% CPBC 29% BCG 21% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 51% CPBC 29% BCG 21% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 51% CPBC 29% BCG 21% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 50% CPBC 29% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 49% CPBC 31% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 49% CPBC 31% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 49% CPBC 31% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 49% CPBC 31% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 49% CPBC 31% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 50% CPBC 29% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 50% CPBC 29% BCG 21% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 50% CPBC 29% BCG 21% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 49% CPBC 29% BCG 23% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 49% CPBC 29% BCG 23% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 49% CPBC 28% BCG 23% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 49% CPBC 28% BCG 23% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 49% CPBC 28% BCG 23% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 49% CPBC 28% BCG 23% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 56% BCG 23% CPBC 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 56% BCG 23% CPBC 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 56% BCG 23% CPBC 20% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 56% BCG 23% CPBC 20% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 56% BCG 23% CPBC 20% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 55% BCG 24% CPBC 19% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 54% BCG 25% CPBC 19% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20

Odds of winning | Victoria-Swan Lake

BCU <1% CPBC <1% NDP >99% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-12-20 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26