logo
British columbia

Recent electoral history | Victoria-Swan Lake


2017 2020 2024 Projection NDP 53% ± 8% 53.6% 59.5% 56.0% BCG 25% ± 7% 29.7% 27.7% 23.2% CPBC 19% ± 5% 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% BCU 0% ± 0% 15.9% 11.4% 0.0%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


British Columbia flag

338Canada Victoria-Swan Lake projection

Latest update: August 17, 2026

Victoria-Swan Lake 46% 61% 53% ± 8% NDP 18% 32% 25% ± 7% BCG 14% 24% 19% ± 5% CPBC NDP 2024 56.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | August 17, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Victoria-Swan Lake >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% CPBC Odds of winning | August 17, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada British Columbia Projection | Victoria-Swan Lake

Odds of winning | Victoria-Swan Lake