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British columbia

Victoria-Swan Lake


MLA: Nina Krieger (NDP)
Latest projection: November 10, 2024
NDP safe
Victoria-Swan Lake 56% ± 0% NDP 23% ± 0% BCG 20% ± 0% CPBC NDP 2024 56.03% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 10, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Victoria-Swan Lake >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% CPBC Odds of winning | November 10, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Victoria-Swan Lake

CPBC 20% ± 0% NDP 56% ± 0% BCG 23% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Victoria-Swan Lake 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG November 10, 2024 2023-12-31 NDP 53% BCG 22% CPBC 14% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 55% BCG 21% CPBC 14% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 52% BCG 21% CPBC 18% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 51% CPBC 20% BCG 19% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 49% CPBC 23% BCG 19% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 50% CPBC 21% BCG 20% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 50% CPBC 21% BCG 20% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 49% CPBC 23% BCG 21% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 49% CPBC 23% BCG 20% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 50% CPBC 24% BCG 18% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 53% CPBC 26% BCG 19% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 54% CPBC 27% BCG 19% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 54% CPBC 27% BCG 19% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 54% CPBC 27% BCG 20% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 51% CPBC 28% BCG 21% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 51% CPBC 29% BCG 21% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 51% CPBC 29% BCG 21% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 51% CPBC 29% BCG 21% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 50% CPBC 29% BCG 20% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 49% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 49% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 49% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 49% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 49% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 50% CPBC 29% BCG 20% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 50% CPBC 30% BCG 20% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 50% CPBC 29% BCG 21% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 50% CPBC 29% BCG 21% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 49% CPBC 29% BCG 23% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 49% CPBC 29% BCG 23% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 49% CPBC 28% BCG 23% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 49% CPBC 28% BCG 23% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 49% CPBC 28% BCG 23% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 49% CPBC 28% BCG 23% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 56% BCG 23% CPBC 20% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 56% BCG 23% CPBC 20% 2024-11-10

Odds of winning | Victoria-Swan Lake

BCU <1% CPBC <1% NDP >99% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG November 10, 2024 2023-12-31 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-11-10 2023-12-31 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Victoria-Swan Lake



2017 2020 2024 Proj. NDP 56% ± 0% 53.6% 59.5% 56.0% BCG 23% ± 0% 29.7% 27.7% 23.2% CPBC 20% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% IND 1% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% LIB 0% ± 0% 15.9% 11.4% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.