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Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast

16 provincial districts
Latest update: December 20, 2025

Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast 38% 52% 45% ± 7% NDP 26% 38% 32% ± 6% CPBC 14% 25% 19% ± 5% BCG 338Canada popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. Details on 338Canada’s methodology are available here.
Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast, 16 federal districts 14 [10-16] NDP 1 [0-5] CPBC 1  [0-2] BCG 338Canada seat projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current range from worst- to best-case outcomes. Values near the centre of the distribution are more likely than the extremes, as the results follow Gaussian-like (bell-curve) distributions. Does it work? See 338Canada’s full record here.

Popular vote projection | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast

CPBC 32% ± 6% NDP 45% ± 7% BCG 19% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP 46% BCG 21% CPBC 21% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 45% CPBC 24% BCG 19% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 43% CPBC 28% BCG 19% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 44% CPBC 25% BCG 19% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 45% CPBC 25% BCG 20% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 43% CPBC 27% BCG 21% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 43% CPBC 28% BCG 20% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 44% CPBC 28% BCG 19% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 47% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 48% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 48% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 48% CPBC 31% BCG 21% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 47% CPBC 32% BCG 21% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 47% CPBC 33% BCG 20% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 47% CPBC 33% BCG 19% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 47% CPBC 33% BCG 19% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 19% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 45% CPBC 35% BCG 19% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 45% CPBC 35% BCG 19% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 45% CPBC 35% BCG 19% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 45% CPBC 35% BCG 19% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 45% CPBC 35% BCG 19% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 45% CPBC 35% BCG 19% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 19% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 19% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 19% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 19% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 19% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 45% CPBC 34% BCG 20% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 45% CPBC 34% BCG 20% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 44% CPBC 33% BCG 22% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 44% CPBC 33% BCG 22% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 45% CPBC 32% BCG 22% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 44% CPBC 32% BCG 22% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 44% CPBC 32% BCG 22% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 44% CPBC 33% BCG 22% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 18% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 18% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 18% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 18% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 18% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 46% CPBC 32% BCG 19% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 45% CPBC 32% BCG 19% 2025-12-20

Seat projection | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast

CPBC 1 [0-5] NDP 14 [10-16] BCG 1 [0-2] Seat projection | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP 15 BCG 1 CPBC 0 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 15 BCG 1 CPBC 0 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 14 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 15 BCG 1 CPBC 0 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 15 BCG 1 CPBC 0 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 14 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 14 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 14 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 14 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 14 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 14 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 15 BCG 1 CPBC 0 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 15 BCG 1 CPBC 0 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 13 CPBC 2 BCG 1 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 13 CPBC 2 BCG 1 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 13 CPBC 2 BCG 1 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 12 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 12 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 12 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 12 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 12 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 12 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 12 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 12 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 12 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 12 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 12 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 12 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 11 CPBC 3 BCG 2 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 11 CPBC 3 BCG 2 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 11 CPBC 3 BCG 2 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 11 CPBC 3 BCG 2 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 12 CPBC 2 BCG 2 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 12 CPBC 2 BCG 2 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 12 CPBC 2 BCG 2 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 12 CPBC 2 BCG 2 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 13 CPBC 2 BCG 1 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 13 CPBC 2 BCG 1 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 13 CPBC 2 BCG 1 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 13 CPBC 2 BCG 1 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 12 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 14 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 14 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2025-12-20

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List of districts | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast
Latest update: December 20, 2025

Electoral districts
Current party
Projection
Brennan Day
C Toss up
Debra Toporowski
N NDP leaning
Darlene Rotchford
N NDP safe
Dana Lajeunesse
N Toss up
Stephanie Higginson
N NDP likely
Ravi Parmar
N NDP likely
Josie Osborne
N NDP likely
Sheila Malcolmson
N NDP safe
George Anderson
N NDP likely
Anna Kindy
C Toss up
Diana Gibson
N NDP safe
N NDP likely
G GRN leaning
Lana Popham
N NDP safe
N NDP likely
Nina Krieger
N NDP safe