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British columbia

Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast, 16 districts



Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2020)
14 1 0 0 15 15.0
0 1 0 0 1 1.0
0 0 0 0 0 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0.0




Projection | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast


Latest update: February 1, 2024
Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast 49% ± 6%▲ 21% ± 5%▼ 17% ± 5% 11% ± 3%▼ 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 1, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast, 16 districts 15 [14-16] 1 [0-2] 0 [0-0] 0 [0-0] 338Canada seat projection | February 1, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast

BCU 11% ± 3% BCC 17% ± 5% NDP 49% ± 6% BCG 21% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2024 BCU BCC NDP BCG

Seat projection | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast

NDP 15 [14-16] BCG 1 [0-2] Seat projection | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast 15 10 5 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2024 NDP BCG

List of electoral districts


Latest update: February 1, 2024
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
017 Courtenay-Comox NDP safe
018 Cowichan Valley NDP likely
021 Esquimalt-Colwood NDP safe
023 Juan de Fuca-Malahat NDP safe
032 Ladysmith-Oceanside NDP safe
033 Langford-Highlands NDP safe
039 Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP safe
040 Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP safe
041 Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP safe
045 North Island NDP safe
048 Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe
054 Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP safe
062 Saanich North and the Islands GRN likely
063 Saanich South NDP safe
089 Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP safe
090 Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe