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Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast, 16 districts



Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2020)
14 0 0 0 14 14
1 0 0 1 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
Projected ahead Last election (2020)
14 14
2 2
0 0
0 0




Projection | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast


Latest update: September 26, 2023
Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast 49% ± 6%▲ 25% ± 5%▼ 14% ± 4%▲ 12% ± 3%▼ 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 26, 2023
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast, 16 districts 14 [14-15] 2 [1-2] 0 [0-0] 0 [0-0] 338Canada seat projection | September 26, 2023
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast

BCU 12% ± 3% BCC 14% ± 4% NDP 49% ± 6% BCG 25% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 BCU BCC NDP BCG

Seat projection | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast

NDP 14 [14-15] BCG 2 [1-2] Seat projection | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 NDP BCG

List of electoral districts


Latest update: September 26, 2023
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
016 Courtenay-Comox NDP safe
017 Cowichan Valley Toss up
020 Esquimalt-Metchosin NDP safe
029 Langford-Juan de Fuca NDP safe
034 Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP safe
035 Nanaimo NDP safe
036 Nanaimo-North Cowichan NDP safe
040 North Coast NDP safe
041 North Island NDP safe
044 Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe
045 Parksville-Qualicum NDP safe
051 Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP safe
058 Saanich North and the Islands GRN safe
059 Saanich South NDP safe
084 Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP safe
085 Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe
Electoral district
016 Courtenay-Comox
017 Cowichan Valley
020 Esquimalt-Metchosin
029 Langford-Juan de Fuca
034 Mid Island-Pacific Rim
035 Nanaimo
036 Nanaimo-North Cowichan
040 North Coast
041 North Island
044 Oak Bay-Gordon Head
045 Parksville-Qualicum
051 Powell River-Sunshine Coast
058 Saanich North and the Islands
059 Saanich South
084 Victoria-Beacon Hill
085 Victoria-Swan Lake