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Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast

17 provincial districts
Latest update: February 18, 2026

Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast 38% 50% 44% ± 6% NDP 25% 35% 30% ± 5% CPBC 16% 26% 21% ± 5% BCG 338Canada popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. Details on 338Canada’s methodology are available here.
Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast, 17 federal districts 16 [12-17] NDP 1  [0-2] BCG 0  [0-4] CPBC 338Canada seat projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current range from worst- to best-case outcomes. Values near the centre of the distribution are more likely than the extremes, as the results follow Gaussian-like (bell-curve) distributions. Does it work? See 338Canada’s full record here.

Popular vote projection | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast

CPBC 30% ± 5% NDP 44% ± 6% BCG 21% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP 46% BCG 21% CPBC 21% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 45% CPBC 24% BCG 19% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 43% CPBC 28% BCG 19% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 44% CPBC 25% BCG 19% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 45% CPBC 25% BCG 20% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 43% CPBC 27% BCG 21% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 43% CPBC 28% BCG 20% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 44% CPBC 28% BCG 19% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 47% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 48% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 48% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 48% CPBC 31% BCG 21% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 47% CPBC 32% BCG 21% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 47% CPBC 33% BCG 20% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 47% CPBC 33% BCG 19% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 47% CPBC 33% BCG 19% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 19% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 45% CPBC 35% BCG 19% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 45% CPBC 35% BCG 19% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 45% CPBC 35% BCG 19% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 45% CPBC 35% BCG 19% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 45% CPBC 35% BCG 19% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 45% CPBC 35% BCG 19% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 19% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 19% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 19% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 19% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 19% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 45% CPBC 34% BCG 20% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 45% CPBC 34% BCG 20% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 44% CPBC 33% BCG 22% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 44% CPBC 33% BCG 22% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 45% CPBC 32% BCG 22% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 44% CPBC 32% BCG 22% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 44% CPBC 32% BCG 22% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 44% CPBC 33% BCG 22% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 18% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 18% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 18% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 18% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 46% CPBC 34% BCG 18% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 46% CPBC 32% BCG 19% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 45% CPBC 32% BCG 19% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP 45% CPBC 31% BCG 20% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 NDP 44% CPBC 30% BCG 21% 2026-02-18

Seat projection | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast

CPBC 0 [0-4] NDP 16 [12-17] BCG 1 [0-2] Seat projection | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP 16 BCG 1 CPBC 0 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 16 BCG 1 CPBC 0 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 15 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 16 BCG 1 CPBC 0 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 16 BCG 1 CPBC 0 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 15 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 15 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 15 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 15 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 15 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 15 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 16 BCG 1 CPBC 0 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 16 BCG 1 CPBC 0 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 14 CPBC 2 BCG 1 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 14 CPBC 2 BCG 1 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 14 CPBC 2 BCG 1 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 13 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 13 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 13 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 13 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 13 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 13 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 13 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 13 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 13 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 13 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 13 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 13 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 12 CPBC 3 BCG 2 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 12 CPBC 3 BCG 2 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 12 CPBC 3 BCG 2 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 12 CPBC 3 BCG 2 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 13 CPBC 2 BCG 2 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 13 CPBC 2 BCG 2 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 13 CPBC 2 BCG 2 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 13 CPBC 2 BCG 2 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 14 CPBC 2 BCG 1 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 14 CPBC 2 BCG 1 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 14 CPBC 2 BCG 1 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 14 CPBC 2 BCG 1 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 13 CPBC 3 BCG 1 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 15 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 15 CPBC 1 BCG 1 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP 16 BCG 1 CPBC 0 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 NDP 16 BCG 1 CPBC 0 2026-02-18

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List of districts | Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast
Latest update: February 18, 2026

Electoral districts
Current party
Projection
Brennan Day
C NDP leaning
Debra Toporowski
N NDP leaning
Darlene Rotchford
N NDP safe
Dana Lajeunesse
N NDP leaning
Stephanie Higginson
N NDP likely
Ravi Parmar
N NDP likely
Josie Osborne
N NDP likely
Sheila Malcolmson
N NDP safe
George Anderson
N NDP likely
Tamara Davidson
N NDP safe
Anna Kindy
C Toss up
Diana Gibson
N NDP safe
N NDP safe
G GRN likely
Lana Popham
N NDP safe
N NDP leaning
Nina Krieger
N NDP safe