logo
British columbia


Richmond South Centre


MLA: Henry Yao (NDP)


Latest projection: October 5, 2023

NDP safe
Richmond South Centre 48% ± 9% 30% ± 8%▼ 22% ± 8%▲ NDP 2020 50.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 5, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Richmond South Centre >99%▲ <1%▼ <1% Odds of winning | October 5, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Richmond South Centre

BCU 30% ± 8% BCC 22% ± 8% NDP 48% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Richmond South Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 BCU BCC NDP

Odds of winning | Richmond South Centre

BCU <1% BCC <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 BCU BCC NDP

Recent electoral history | Richmond South Centre



2017 2020 Proj. NDP 40.3% 50.7% 48% ± 9% BCU 48.7% 49.3% 30% ± 8% BCG 11.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% BCC 0.0% 0.0% 22% ± 8%