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Surrey-Panorama

Latest update: February 18, 2026
C
MLA: Bryan Tepper
Conservative Party of BC
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Recent electoral history | Surrey-Panorama


2017 2020 2024 Projection NDP 47% ± 8% 52.3% 58.7% 48.1% CPBC 44% ± 8% 0.0% 0.0% 49.6% ONE 4% ± 5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BCG 3% ± 3% 6.9% 1.5% 0.0% BCU 0% ± 0% 39.3% 38.2% 0.0%

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338Canada Surrey-Panorama projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Surrey-Panorama 38% 55% 47% ± 8% NDP 36% 52% 44% ± 8% ▼ CPBC 0% 9% 4% ± 5% ONE CPBC 2024 49.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Surrey-Panorama 64%▲ NDP 36%▼ CPBC <1% ONEOdds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Surrey-Panorama

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 44% ± 8% NDP 47% ± 8% BCG 3% ± 3% ONE 4% ± 5% CEN 2% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Surrey-Panorama 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP 51% CPBC 24% BCU 21% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 49% CPBC 29% BCU 18% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 47% CPBC 37% BCU 13% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 49% CPBC 34% BCU 14% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 49% CPBC 35% BCU 13% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 48% CPBC 37% BCU 11% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 48% CPBC 38% BCU 11% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 48% CPBC 38% BCU 11% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 53% CPBC 44% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 54% CPBC 46% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 54% CPBC 46% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 53% CPBC 47% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 53% CPBC 47% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 53% CPBC 47% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 53% CPBC 47% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 52% CPBC 47% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 52% CPBC 48% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 53% CPBC 47% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 53% CPBC 47% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 52% CPBC 48% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 52% CPBC 48% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 52% CPBC 48% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 53% CPBC 47% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 53% CPBC 47% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 54% CPBC 46% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 54% CPBC 46% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 53% CPBC 47% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 53% CPBC 47% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 54% CPBC 46% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 54% CPBC 46% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 54% CPBC 46% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 54% CPBC 46% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 55% CPBC 45% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 55% CPBC 45% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 55% CPBC 45% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 55% CPBC 45% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 50% NDP 48% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 50% NDP 48% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 50% NDP 48% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 CPBC 50% NDP 48% ONE 2% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC 50% NDP 48% ONE 2% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 48% CPBC 48% ONE 2% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 48% CPBC 47% ONE 2% BCG 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP 47% CPBC 46% ONE 4% CEN 2% BCG 1% BCU 0% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 NDP 47% CPBC 44% ONE 4% BCG 3% CEN 2% BCU 0% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Surrey-Panorama

BCU <1% CPBC 36% NDP 64% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP 91% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 92% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 93% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 78% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 80% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 73% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 94% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 91% CPBC 9% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 94% CPBC 6% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 89% CPBC 11% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 85% CPBC 15% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 86% CPBC 14% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 80% CPBC 20% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 80% CPBC 20% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 80% CPBC 20% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 79% CPBC 21% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 78% CPBC 22% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 74% CPBC 26% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 83% CPBC 17% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 83% CPBC 17% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 73% CPBC 27% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 73% CPBC 27% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 76% CPBC 24% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 78% CPBC 22% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 83% CPBC 17% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 85% CPBC 15% BCG <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 88% CPBC 12% BCG <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 84% CPBC 16% BCG <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 82% CPBC 18% BCG <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP 86% CPBC 14% BCG <1% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 NDP 85% CPBC 15% BCG <1% 2026-02-18 2024-03-26 NDP 85% CPBC 15% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 91% CPBC 9% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 92% CPBC 8% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 94% CPBC 6% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 66% NDP 34% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 62% NDP 38% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 58% NDP 42% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 56% NDP 44% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 61% NDP 39% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 52% CPBC 48% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 53% CPBC 47% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 58% CPBC 42% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 64% CPBC 36% BCG <1% 2024-09-27