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British columbia

Surrey-Panorama


MLA: Bryan Tepper (CPBC)
Latest projection: February 9, 2025
Toss up
Surrey-Panorama 50% ± 8% CPBC 48% ± 8% NDP CPBC 2024 49.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 9, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Surrey-Panorama 58%▼ CPBC 42%▲ NDP <1% INDOdds of winning | February 9, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Surrey-Panorama

CPBC 50% ± 8% NDP 48% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Surrey-Panorama 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 53% CPBC 20% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 55% CPBC 21% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 51% CPBC 24% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 49% CPBC 29% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 47% CPBC 37% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 49% CPBC 34% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 49% CPBC 35% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 48% CPBC 37% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 48% CPBC 38% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 48% CPBC 38% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 53% CPBC 44% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 54% CPBC 46% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 54% CPBC 46% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 53% CPBC 47% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 53% CPBC 47% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 53% CPBC 47% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 53% CPBC 47% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 52% CPBC 47% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 52% CPBC 48% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 53% CPBC 47% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 53% CPBC 47% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 52% CPBC 48% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 52% CPBC 48% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 52% CPBC 48% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 53% CPBC 47% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 53% CPBC 47% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 54% CPBC 46% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 54% CPBC 46% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 53% CPBC 47% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 53% CPBC 47% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 54% CPBC 46% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 54% CPBC 46% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 54% CPBC 46% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 54% CPBC 46% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 55% CPBC 45% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 55% CPBC 45% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 55% CPBC 45% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 55% CPBC 45% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 50% NDP 48% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 50% NDP 48% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 50% NDP 48% 2025-02-09

Odds of winning | Surrey-Panorama

BCU <1% CPBC 58% NDP 42% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 91% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 92% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 93% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 78% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 80% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 73% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 94% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 91% CPBC 9% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 94% CPBC 6% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 89% CPBC 11% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 85% CPBC 15% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 86% CPBC 14% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 80% CPBC 20% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 80% CPBC 20% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 80% CPBC 20% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 79% CPBC 21% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 78% CPBC 22% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 74% CPBC 26% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 83% CPBC 17% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 83% CPBC 17% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 73% CPBC 27% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 73% CPBC 27% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 76% CPBC 24% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 78% CPBC 22% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 83% CPBC 17% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 85% CPBC 15% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 88% CPBC 12% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2023-12-31 NDP 84% CPBC 16% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 82% CPBC 18% BCG <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 86% CPBC 14% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 85% CPBC 15% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 85% CPBC 15% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 91% CPBC 9% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 92% CPBC 8% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 94% CPBC 6% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 66% NDP 34% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 62% NDP 38% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 58% NDP 42% BCG <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Surrey-Panorama



2017 2020 2024 Proj. CPBC 50% ± 8% 0.0% 0.0% 49.6% NDP 48% ± 8% 52.3% 58.7% 48.1% IND 2% ± 3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% LIB 0% ± 0% 39.3% 38.2% 0.0% BCG 0% ± 0% 6.9% 1.5% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.